Via Kombiz at AMERICAblog, the latest WMUR poll in New Hampshire shows Mandate Mitt Romney is still strong, but Timothy Pawlenty is all but a blip.
Mitt Romney
used to think the
individual mandate was a swell idea
Romney's down a bit from a poll in March, but he's still at 36%, a drop of 4%. Pawlenty, who was at 7% is now at 2%.
The rest of the field is a real mishmash, with Rudy Giuliani (!) at 7% and Donald Trump at 11%. Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee are at 6%, and all the other potential candidates are below 5%.
Probably the most salient number is this: only 5% of likely GOP primary voters say they've definitely made up their mind. 16% say they are leaning towards someone, and the rest—79%—say they are still making up their mind. That's pretty much the definition of a wide-open contest, so I'll stand my prediction that as soon as GOP voters start to think about the fact that Mitt Romney is basically the father of health care reform, they'll abandon him in droves.
If I had to bet, I'd bet on Timothy Pawlenty picking up Romney's support, but that's because I think Fox will get behind him once the GOP establishment realizes Romney can't get the nomination. I admit, however, that my prediction could very well be proven wrong, perhaps spectacularly so: as these numbers show, Pawlenty so far he hasn't exactly proven himself to be a compelling candidate. And while he may be one of the smarter candidates in the race on the GOP side, his decision to participate in tonight's debate seems a bit idiotic. So I hope I'm not forced to make any bets, except against Romney.