The weakest district here is 54.7% McCain, so I think this map should be reasonably safe for Republicans. Shuler, Miller, McIntyre and Kissell should all be out of Congress with this map in 2012.
57% McCain
41.9% Obama
Howard Coble can either retire or run here, it doesn't matter, this seat will be Republican anyway.
55.8% McCain
43.2% Obama
One of the seats that's used to crack the Triangle. Brad Miller could choose to run here, but it's not very promising.
The Republican voters here are highly reliable rural high-turnout voters.
Sue Myrick's seat, and safe. Looks non-contigous, but that's only because the 2000 and 2010 voting districts look different. In the 2010 map, which I used to draw the districts to ensure population equality, the yellow district doesn't touch the border.
55.8% McCain
43.4% Obama
Rep. Ellmers' seat- the second one used to crack Raleigh. Raleigh is balanced out by suburban Republicans in Fayetteville and 75% Republican rural voters.
54.6% McCain
44.3% Obama
David Price's seat, at least if he manages to win the primary against a Triad African-American Democrat.
VAP stats:
45.3% White
38.2% Black
10.3% Hispanic
4.4% Asian
1.9% Other
77.8% Obama (!)
21.5% McCain
Walter Jones could choose to run either here or in NC-04. He might face a primary challenge in either one, considering that most of his territory is in NC-04 but he doesn't even live close to it anymore.
This is also the third seat used to crack Raleigh or rather its metropolitan area.
55.1% McCain
44.1% Obama
G.K. Butterfield's seat. It stretches into Raleigh and takes in most of its minority-heavy areas, including the Hispanic parts, but it stays majority-black. It's even an improvement in terms of black representation, because in the current district that's heavy on rural African-Americans, the black population is declining- Butterfield's district is under its current lines not majority-black anymore.
In this district, it's ever so slightly increasing, while the Hispanc and Other population are quickly growing at the expense of Whites.
VAP stats:
38.7% White
50.5% Black
7.8% Hispanic
3% Other
69.0% Obama
30.5% McCain
This is essentially Mike McIntyre's seat, but he doesn't live there anymore. If he still decides to run here, he's a decisive underdog.
54.6% McCain
44.5% Obama
This is effectively Mel Watt's seat. Nominally Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell are also drawn into it, but I don't see them winning a primary against Watt this Charlotte- and African-American heavy district.
VAP stats:
32.5% White
43.7% Black
12.1% Hispanic
7.1% Native
4.6% Other
73.0% Obama
26.3% McCain
This is essentially Walter Jones' seat. Just stretching far more west to soak up some Durham precincts. He doesn't live here anymore, or even close to it. So.. I guess time for a new guy who's hugging the party line?
55.2% McCain
43.9% Obama
(Open seat)-- if you're wondering by now why there are so many open seats-- the Democrats in office right now were pretty much condensed into three seats. That leaves some place for open seats.
Safe Republican. Not even Dem strongholds here.
56.9% McCain
42.2% Obama
Shuler and McHenry are drawn together in this seat where Shuler doesn't stand a chance. Still, I don't think that McHenry had this scenario in mind when he said he'd take half of Shuler's base, hahaha.
56.9% McCain
41.9% Obama
A nice, safe seat for the crazy lady from Banner Elk.
56.6% McCain
42.0% Obama
What do you think?
EDIT:
And a statewide map to boost-
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