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The good news for Democrats is that Illinois will be a Democratic and not Republican gerrymander this cycle. That said, since we have seen some solid 13-5 Democratic maps the question is raised; how many districts could Republican draw themselves if they had control of redistricting?

I project this map to something in the order of 9-9, at least in neutral years. Due to Obama's unbalancing influence on PVI in Illinois I'm not really certain how safe/unsafe certain districts are.

One crucial decision for redistricting Illinois is deciding how many VRA districts to draw. It could be argued Chicago only has the minority population for two Black majority districts and one Hispanic majority district. However it has been repeatedly demonstrated that it is possible to maintain the existing three Black majority districts (at greatly reduced minority population and compactness) and create a new Hispanic majority district. I have also chosen to produce all five VRA districts, though the northernmost Hispanic district was undoubtedly a liability for my goals.

All populations are for voting age, total minority population is invariably a few percentage points higher.
CD1 (Blue): 90/10 O/M 32/52/11 W/B/H
CD2 (Green): 85/13 O/M 35/51/10 W/B/H
CD3 (Dark Magenta): 90/9 O/M 34/51/9 W/B/H
CD4 (Red): 76/23 O/M 30/7/58 W/B/H
CD5 (Gold): 77/22 O/M 36/5/52 W/B/H

CD6 (Teal): 73/26 O/M
CD7 (Dark Gray): 66/32 O/M
CD8 (Slate Blue): 62/37 O/M
CD9 (Cyan) 49.2/49.5 O/M
CD10 (Deep Pink) 51.9/47.0 O/M
CD11 (Chartreuse) 50.6/48.1 O/M

CD12 (Cornflower Blue) 50.2/48.3 O/M
CD13 (Dark Salmon) 68/31 O/M
CD14 (Olive) 48.8/49.5 O/M
CD15 (Dark Orange) 49.6/48.7 O/M
CD16 (Lime) 50.2/48.2 O/M
CD17 (Dark Slate Blue) 45.4/52.8 O/M
CD18 (Yellow) 47.0/51.2 O/M

Originally posted to Alizarin Indigo on Tue May 10, 2011 at 05:36 AM PDT.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I live in Republican DuPage and the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marjmar, dc1000

    thought of the whole state being run by these ass hats who CONTROL everything here and are entrenched, is really frightening. It is good to see that the state has enough sane people to stave off Repug control for a while.

    Character is what you are in the dark. Emilio Lizardo in Buckaroo Bonzai

    by Temmoku on Tue May 10, 2011 at 07:26:26 AM PDT

  •  Nice job! (0+ / 0-)

    I would have imagined that a Republican gerrymander would be a lot more compact due to Democratic packing, but surprisingly not. I'd say most of your districts would end up voting for the intended party. The only shaky one might be your 8th, which is largely situated in DuPage County (where Obama overperformed bigtime), but it's worth pointing out that Bob Dold, in a 61/38 Obama district in Chicagoland in 2010, only won 51-49. So in a neutral year in a slightly more D district that contains parts of Joliet an Aurora, Dems would be favored to take your 8th.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 10, 2011 at 09:36:03 AM PDT

  •  I don't think they'd need to concede any districts (0+ / 0-)

    outside of Cook County.

    I came up with this map:

    That, assuming Shimkus beats Costello, would lock the Democrats into only six districts in Cook (including the one that stretches out to Joliet).

    •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

      Just delete one Obama district downstate, dump red paint on the other, and then move the needle a few points in the suburbs. Pretty devious, but it looks "fair."

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue May 10, 2011 at 10:27:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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