Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/5-8, Virginia voters,
2/24-27 in parens):
Tim Kaine (D): 46 (47)
George Allen (R): 44 (47)
Undecided: 10 (6)
Bobby Scott (D): 39
George Allen (R): 44
Undecided: 17
Tim Kaine (D): 49 (49)
Jamie Radtke (R): 33 (33)
Undecided: 18 (17)
Bobby Scott (D): 39
Jamie Radtke (R): 34
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.2%)
There's been little movement in the Virginia Senate race, according to PPP, since their last check on it two months earlier... and it sounds like there ought to be very little movement from here on out. It's just one of those races (like Murray/Rossi last year) where everyone already knows the key players, has an opinion about them that isn't likely to change, and where the result is going to turn on GOTV and on how the national parties are faring in general. If you need confirmation of that, these numbers are very similar to the Washington Post's poll of a few days ago, which had the two men tied at 46.
There's an almost startling amount of party unity here: only 7% of Democrats plan to vote for Allen, and 6% of Republicans plan to vote for Kaine. Kaine and Allen have an identical 10/69 favorable rate among members of the opposing party. Independents have a slightly better opinion of Kaine, with them preferring him 45-40 over Allen. That's what gives him a somewhat better overall favorable (42/41, vs. 36/42 for Allen) and gives him the small lead overall. (The WaPo poll caught voters in a much better mood; there they gave Kaine a 57% fave and Allen 52%.)
PPP throws in some other permutations if Kaine or Allen are upset in the primary bids, not that any of these scenarios are likely to happen. Rep. Bobby Scott hasn't formally ruled out a bid but doesn't seem to have taken any steps on the Democratic side, while tea party activist Jamie Radtke seems to have run into a financial brick wall in her challenge to the right (as if that were possible) against Allen. If anyone poses a threat to Allen in the GOP primary, it'd be state Del. Bob Marshall, who nearly took out eventual GOP nominee Jim Gilmore in 2008... but Marshall doesn't seem to be gearing up either, and PPP, who polled him in February, didn't poll him this time.
This diary is brought to you by DK Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our
Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!