WV-Gov: GOP race is...well...a coin flip
In advance of a Saturday primary in the Mountaineer State, the always prolific crew over at Public Policy Polling went into the field to take the temperature in both the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries. This is the third time they have gone into West Virginia. And to say there have been a few changes would be an understatement.
What was once considered a coronation on the GOP side has become very competitive in a hurry, and has become the race to watch Saturday night. And while the outcome in the Democratic primary appears to be a bit less uncertain, a rising star seems to have emerged from that primary.
First, the numbers from the hypercompetitive Republican primary:
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/11-12. West Virginia Republican Voters. April results in parentheses)
Bill Maloney (R) 32 (17)
Betty Ireland (R) 31 (31)
Clark Barnes (R) 8 (8)
Larry Faircloth (R) 6 (2)
Mitch Carmichael (R) 4 (8)
Mark Sorsaia (R) 4 (4)
Others 1 (3)
Undecided 14 (28)
The assumption, at the outset of this shortened special election cycle, was that Betty Ireland would parlay her far superior name recognition from her years as a statewide official to victory. But along the way, two things have happened. For one thing, Maloney has become much better known. In PPP's April survey, Maloney was only known by roughly a third of the electorate. Now, a majority know him well enough to offer an opinion of him. Ireland is still well liked (both sport very good favorabilities), but Maloney is now seen as a real alternative. For another, he has run a base campaign, running to the right of Ireland. It has worked: he leads by five among those voters who consider themselves "very" conservative. Ireland, for her part, is calling Maloney an empty suit, asking why the political neophyte has not offered any detailed plans on what he would do if elected.
On the Democratic side, the outcome is considerably less dramatic. But that does not mean that it isn't at least a little bit interesting:
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/11-12. West Virginia Democrats. April results in parentheses)
Earl Ray Tomblin (D) 33 (32)
Rick Thompson (D) 20 (15)
Natalie Tennant (D) 17 (16)
John Perdue (D) 11 (17)
Jeff Kessler (D) 4 (5)
Arne Moltis (D) 1 (1)
Undecided 12 (14)
When PPP first looked at this race in January, Thompson was a distant fourth, garnering just 6% of the vote. He now is in second place, and shows more positive movement than any other candidate over the past month. Meanwhile, Tomblin benefits from reasonably favorable reviews of his quasi-incumbency (he has been acting Governor since Joe Manchin moved over to the U.S. Senate), as well as the fact that if there is an anti-Tomblin vote, it is being split in multiple directions.
Remember, however, that assuming he wins this primary and wins the general (where he had a decisive lead last month), Tomblin will have to do this all over again in 2012. Thompson, buoyed by his strong performance in this multi-candidate field, might be motivated to try again in twelve months. This poll seems to hint that should he do so, Tomblin will have to take him very seriously.
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