So many people are crediting Representative Paul Ryan with "leading with the chin" and being courageous.
Commentators also credit him with understanding economics. Even Obama made that mistake. Ryan is all about politics. His work is not based on anything that could pass as economic science.
Based on what he knew of recent voter behavior, he probably did not think he was taking any risks at all when he offered his plan.
Let's begin with the 2010 election. The Republicans picked up a majority of 49 seats in the House by saying that health care reform and the stimulus was responsible for continued unemployment. This means most voters will believe anything.
The Republicans made great gains with seniors saying that the $500 billion the Democrats cut from Medicaid would sharply reduce benefits. Many seniors believed this. Besides they did not want to risk losing even a few dollars a month to help the 40 million who are uninsured.
An appropriate conclusion is that the geezers are greedy and unconcerned about others.
Then, with John Boehner now seated as Speaker, the Republicans voted to keep all of the $500 in Medicare cuts. Only one pundit noticed, and the voters were looking the other way.
What would have appeared risky about presnting the Ryan Plan?
1) Its key provision says that Medicare will not be privatized until 2022 and will only effect new claimants. This is like bribing present recipients and those who sign up before then to throw their children and grandchildren under the bus. All along, Republicans have been betting that it is always possible to use one part of the populace to savage the rest. They are usually right.
2) The second part of the plan begins the immediate reduction of Medicaid funding by recreating it as a block grant program to the states. Most Americand do not think they or their kin will ever end up on Medicaid. That is for indigents and the undeserving poor. The only people who worry about this are less likely to vote than the rest of Americans.
3) The Ryan Plan makes permanent the tax cuts for the rich. There is nothing courageous here as we know the voters do not punish voters for this policy.
4) It ends health care reform. The polls show that a slight majority of voters want repeal.
What is courageous about all of this?
A few Republicans went back to their districts and caught a little flack about Medicare.
They were surprised, and so was this writer.
Lacking the courage of their convictions, the House Republicans soon b acked off. They probably could have sold the whole plan if they couched it in terms of hammering the poor and undeserving and putting the African American occupant of the White House in his place.
The Republicans, for the moment, are spooked about taking much away from Medicare. Their ultimate goal is to trim entitlements so the day will not come when the rich and corporations have to pay higher taxes to support them. This is what the Republicans are all about, and Medicare and Social Security will be targeted again. But for the moment, they are finding that they have to concentrate on savaging Medicaid.
Now, their only course is to go for more cuts in discretionary spending and to accelerate savings on Medicaid. There is just so much that can come out of discretionary spending. Medicaid has to be their main target, and most Republicans probably think it is a safe tareget because the people who vote for them are not likely to think Medicaid could possibly be in their futures.
Ryan planned to cut $100 billion per pear from Medicaid. Of course, he was giving the states the green light to cut more. With Medicaid cuts off the table now, the House Republicans will go for much more than an annual cut of $100 billion from Medicaid.
If the Supreme Court cuts out the heart of health care reform, medical costs will go through the ceiling because the framework health care reform provided for cost reduction will have been destroyed. The federal government's medical costs will also go much higher. That , in turn, will spur the GOP to take still more out of Medicaid.
At first the Medicaid cuts could be popular. People who have been voting Republican might be glad to see less support for the indigent and "Unworthy"oor. But in no time flat, this policy will earn for the GOP the enmity of more and more Americans. The aged population is rising one third between 2007 and 2020. With the number of people on Medicaid rising and the money to help them shriking in real terms, there will be a lot more pain and suffering that will effect most American families.
The Democrats should endlessly point out that the Republican policy was to privatize Medicare and slash Medicaid.
The Democrats must avoid agreeing to massive Medicaid cuts. If these cuts come to be identified as gthe essence of Republican policy, the Democrats may get through the next few election cycles in fairly good shape.