I almost feel sorry for our hapless ex-Governor. He is drowning in a sea of irony. His greatest accomplishment as Republican governor of a blue state was creating a Republican health care plan. Based on a proposed Republican alternative to the Clinton plan of 1994, it requires residents to buy private insurance. No public option, no public care. What more could they want? Hey, the plan stinks, but in its favor, it's actually better than nothing. Give it a C-, perhaps.
And of course it's his Achilles heel. Obama took his idea, so he's too close to Obama. Guilt by association is a funny thing. President Obama was apparently afraid to offer a real Democratic alternative, so in order to do something, he triangulated onto Romneycare as the basis of the ACA. So suddenly the Republicans think that it's a Democratic plan. So Mitt's suddenly a traitor to the cause. Anyone for a little schadenfreude?
But I disagree with the conventional wisdom that his recent apologia for Romneycare was the wrong move. Yes, it will hurt him with the teabaggers and hard-line activists. They are going for the jugular. But what will other voters think? Romney's other option was to do what he's most famous for -- flip flop. That might have won him some short-term points on the far right, but it would have been a permanent blot on his record, where each flip flop is long remembered.
This round of Republican primaries may well feature a large crowd of nutty people competing hard for the extremely nutty vote. (Alas, the UK already has an "Official Monster Raving Loony Party".) Ironically, the two Mormon cousins, Romney and Huntsman, may be the ones holding down the moderate end. It may be a bruising cycle. If things go well for Democrats, it could be 1964 all over again, with a party battle over ideological purity that loses badly, while the extremists are happy to have kicked out what the English call the "wets".
Mitt may have also figured out that the ACA is not really that unpopular after all. Sure, when you poll Republicans about "Obamacare", they say it's bad, but when you poll the specifics, even Republican voters tend to like it. The label and association are bad; the plan itself does better. So Romney triangulated on it The biggest difference he found between his plan and Obama's (other than, perhaps, that his covers abortions) is that one is a state plan and the other federal. So Mitt pulled out the old states' rights flag, and tried to wave it. Right for Massachusetts, but not as a federal mandate. Yeah, sure. As if 49 other states and six territories didn't have the same problems. Nobody takes this seriously. But it puts him on record in a place he can survive, where he can refuse to debate it on grounds that he's already said what he had to say.
Don't forget that the real reason the Banana Republicans so hate the ACA is its funding mechanism, something not in Romneycare. It includes an increase in the Medicare tax on incomes above $250,000. That's what the Kochs et al care about; the actual medical business is less important. The insurance companies will do fine with it. They're deathly afraid of single-payer.
Politicians have a different tone of voice depending on the audience. Obama does this. W certainly did this. And Romney does this. When Romney is talking to a business crowd, he sounds a specific way. He sounds authoritative, managerial, a deep baritone. But his health care speech was in a higher, more halting, almost afraid, tone of voice. It was a speech aimed directly at voters, probably relatively downscale voters -- the Republican voting base, not funding base.
It might not work this time around. But then Mitt knows that Obama is strong for re-election, and he's still their best shot. The real race is for 2016. By then, the ACA will be in effect, and he's smart enough to know that it is likely to be seen as a good thing after all. Which one Republican will then be able to claim credit for it, rather than blame? That may be his real strategy, to take the long view. The Tea Party movement is fading, and Mitt may see his time returning, even if it is not this cycle.