We introduced the concept of the population distribution analysis in our coverage of Indiana, where we concluded that Dan Burton may have good reason to worry.
We did the same set of calculations for the other states that have finished their Congressional maps as well - Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.
Arkansas:
Not too much change in Arkansas, with Mike Ross' AR-04 experiencing the most change. Everyone's still wondering what exactly the AR legislature had in mind in creating that odd tendril that just skirts by Fort Smith, and why they didn't have the, er... (to quote Rod Blagojevich)
testicular virility to stick with the Fayetteville finger.
Iowa:
Iowa's of particular interest, since it lost one seat. Noteworthy is that Iowa's commission is true to its standard of not taking into consideration current districts - all districts get a significant redistribution. Len Boswell's IA-03 actually retains the most constituents, largely owing to the indivisible entity of Polk County (Des Moines). Tom Latham (formerly of IA-04) has already announced he'll be challenging Bozzy - but has only represented 17% of this district between 2002 and 2012. Given Latham's announced intentions, this a moot point - but he would have the numerical advantage running against Steve King in the new IA-04, as 50% came from the old IA-04 and 47% from the old IA-05.
Louisiana:
Louisiana, like Iowa, lost one seat in reapportionment - and the legislature chose to sacrifice frosh teabagger Rep. Jeff Landry, with four of the new districts getting substantial pieces of the old LA-03. Most are expecting Landry to challenge current LA-07
Lord Rep. Charles Boustany in the new LA-03, which, at 76% retention, is the old LA-07's natural successor. However, as
noted by Greg Giroux, from a purely mathematical perspective, North Shore Rep. Steve Scalise may be a better choice for Landry to challenge -the new LA-01 takes 24.5% from Landry's current district, while the new LA-03 takes 23.8%. Additionally, despite state Sen. Lydia Jackson's best efforts, we didn't get the I-20 district; both LA-04 and LA-05 Reps. John Fleming and Rodney "Benedict Arnold" Alexander should be pleased with the 85% and 75% retention they each received, respectively.
Note: Our percentages differ slightly from Greg's (our raw population figures are identical), since we use what I'll term the "ex post" perspective - for a given new district, how much came from each old district? Following from this, we express populations as a percentage of the row totals - hence the rows summing to 100%. Greg's numbers take the "ex ante" perspective - for a given old district, how was it redistributed among the new districts? (Accordingly, populations are expressed as a percentage of column totals, and all columns would sum to 100%.) If all old districts were balanced in population, then the two approaches would yield mathematically equivalent results when expressed in percentage terms. Since old districts were not balanced - LA-02 being a particularly indicative example - there will be differences. Owing to the massive population loss, the old LA-02 can only, at most, make up 65% of a new district - hence the column totalling to 65.30%. Using the ex ante perspective, all of the population in LA-02 must be allocated to some new district; this would yield numbers of 95.41% and 4.59% - that is, 95.41% of the old LA-02 was retained in the new LA-02 and 4.59% of the old LA-02 was transferred to the new LA-01.
Oklahoma:
The new Oklahoma map maintains the status quo quite well; each district retains at least 97%+ of its old constituents. In fact, 98.7% of people will live in the same district; the legislature even chose to split the same four counties to achieve population equality. (For which we should be grateful...tried getting Oklahoma precinct data recently? Poke around the Oklahoma County [OKC] Election Board
website for awhile.)
This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our
Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!