Justice Kloppenburg may pull off this Wisconsin Supreme Court election - she leads by 16,579 votes as of latest report with 97% of the votes counted.

. As per Wausaa Daily Herald

Justice David Prosser held a 7,316-vote lead over challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg before a statewide recount began April 27. The state Government Accountability Board is providing daily updates on the recount's progress by precinct. Here's a look at where the recount stood as of Monday afternoon:

_Precincts recounted and given a preliminary review by board staff: 3,502 of 3,602

_Prosser's current total: 714,097

_Kloppenburg's current total: 730,676

_The board reported that counties have recounted 1,446,495 votes, which is approximately 97 percent of the total votes cast. Waukesha County is the last county still counting votes.

Assuming these numbers are accurate (yes, yes - I can see Uma Thurman already) then:

97% of total votes = 1,446,495
100% votes = 1,446,495/.97 = 1,491,232

As per the reported figures,  Kloppenburg currently is ahead

k - 730,676
P - 714,097
diff: 16,579

So in order to beat Kloppenburg by one vote Prosser must take 16580 votes more than Kloppenburg in Waukesha
To get the specific figure first take total Waukesha votes and subtract from that the number of votes Prosser must capture to win by one vote. The remainder will be divided by 2 to represent the 50/50 split of votes to both Kloppenburg and Prosser:

44,736 - 16580 = 28156

28,156 / 2 = 14,078 votes

Prossers total to win by one vote is 16,580 + 14,078 = 30,658

So Prosser must beat Kloppenburg 30,658 to 14,078 in Waukesha to win by one vote

That means Prosser must take 68.5% to Kloppenburg 31.5% to win by one vote.

For Prosser to win by the reported 7,316 votes add half of 7,316 to Prossers total while subtracting the same from Kloppenburg to get the following total:

Prosser          34,316
Kloppenburg    10,420

In the case of the supposed 7,316 vote Prosser victory made for the reported totals  to be accurate Prosser must win the Waukesha vote by 76.7% to 24.3%

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### I was ready to poo poo the figures as a lost cause(17+ / 0-)

but 76% is damn near impossible and 68.5% is pretty damned difficult to believe. Somebody oughtta go to jail but I forgot: IOKIYAR

Slow thinkers - keep right

• ##### I'm hoping(7+ / 0-)

but Prosser dominated Waukesha before, right?

And how does the recount compare to the original count on an apples-to-apples basis? I mean, for the precincts already counted, how much did Kloppenburg gain?

There are three kinds of people. Those that are good at math and those that aren't.

[ Parent ]

• ##### about 320 net votes as of this morning(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

I'll double-check, but it looks like Kloppenburg has reduced the margin by 319 votes, not counting reporting units still under review. That's from the GAB's spreadsheet of unofficial returns, see my link above.

• ##### oops, I mean below(0+ / 0-)

I can't even blame this one on DK4. :)

• ##### Question: How many votes will Prosser(10+ / 0-)

get in Waukesha County?

Answer: How many does he need to win?

• ##### oh, for pity's sake(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Actuary4Change, Murphoney, Bob Love

Check out the current spreadsheet there, look at the reporting units that are still outstanding, and then see what you think. (Hint: so far, with the recount almost complete, the net change has been a small fraction of Prosser's margin.)

• ##### Based on that file, Prosser wins by an est. 7,000(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
HudsonValleyMark

Using original totals for outstanding areas, Prosser takes a total of 752,677 to Kloppenburg's 745,680  Diff: 6,997

Of the outstanding areas, 71.9% of the original count went to P; 28.1% for K.

It seems curiosity has killed the cat that had my tongue.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Oh, I hope you're right(4+ / 0-)

Because I'd like nothing more that finding out there was fraud in the original vote count.

And I'd like to see Prosser removed.

Crossing my fingers for you folks in Wisconsin...

"People should not be afraid of their government; governments should be afraid of their people." --V

• ##### I'm unsure of specific totals. Mine were (3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
petral, Louise, Bob Love

extroplated from the figures and language of the original article. Better check my source. it is a Gannet publication.

The Wausau Daily Herald is a daily morning broadsheet printed in Wausau, Wisconsin. It is the primary newspaper in Wausau and is distributed throughout Marathon and Lincoln counties. The Daily Herald is owned by the Gannett Company, which owns ten other newspapers in Wisconsin.

Slow thinkers - keep right

[ Parent ]

• ##### Why do you think that the numbers are off(7+ / 0-)

You say it is hard to believe that Prosser could win by that many votes in Waukesha, but you present no evidence.

Giles Goat Boy has been diarying on changes to vote totals, and Kloppenburg has not picked up nearly enough votes to change the election results.

The only way it will change is if there is evidence of fraud in Waukesha.  While there is clearly evidence that they have not done a good job in that county, I haven't seen anything that I think a judge would rule as invalidating the results.

Numbers are like people . . . Torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.

• ##### I should include an off year analysis of the (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
fly

voting patterns of waukesha county but the math I did is solid. If you could point out my mistake I will be further humbled. I hope you will support my further edification with your superior knowledge.

Slow thinkers - keep right

[ Parent ]

• ##### Your math is right(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
HudsonValleyMark, sebastianguy99

But for those of us who have been following previous diaries on the recount, there are only 2 choices.

1)  The reported numbers are wrong.

2)  Your suspicion that Prosser cannot win Waukesha by that many votes is incorrect.

Yes, if you want to make the diary interesting, give me some reason to think that Waukesha can't vote that way.

Numbers are like people . . . Torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.

[ Parent ]

• ##### But Kathy's not there to find...(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chaoslillith, cyeko, sebastianguy99

yet another 7,000 misplaced ballots.

[ Parent ]

• ##### just look at what is still unreported(4+ / 0-)

Prosser doesn't need any more votes than he already has, based on the original canvass results. Rather, Kloppenburg would have to take away over 7000 net votes.

• ##### Can you say FRAUD...I would like to(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chaoslillith

see Walker and Prosser go down with the County Clerk!!

Due to recent cutbacks, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off.

• ##### Even if your math is right.....(4+ / 0-)

Prosser might will win Waukesha County by 77 - 24%.

I live there, and Democrats have lost here by bigger margins than that. Even comparatively popular Democrats rarely break 30% around here.

• ##### Should have typed "might well win"(0+ / 0-)

damned bi-focals!

• ##### in the canvass, it was about 74-26(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Actuary4Change

There has been very little change in the results from Waukesha County so far. At this time, no sign of win numbers for Kloppenburg.

• ##### And not only that...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
HudsonValleyMark

The original post posit that Prosser would need 76.7% percent of the vote to win by previously-reported 7,316 votes.  Prosser needs to do no such thing.  He only needs to win by one vote (overall) and so the bar is significantly lower and, in Waukesha County anyway, quite achievable.

• ##### right -- and FWIW, Prosser won't win by 7316 votes(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Actuary4Change, Murphoney

Well, probably not. The way it looks right now, he'll probably win by a bit under 7000. That's based on the original results and the changes reported so far throughout the state.

• ##### what's it like to live there?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
greengemini

It must be hard to live in a place where the vast majority of the people think so differently from you.

• ##### I Try to remind myself....(0+ / 0-)

that there are about 6,000 Democrats in Brookfield and try to ignore the fact that there are about 18,000 Republicans.  And many of them are just as dickish as you could imagine.

My daughter was reamed out by some blue-haired lady at the Friend of the Library Book Sale because she was buying the book "Bad President" and I've been flipped the bird more times than I can count by my the Good Christian People (tm) of Brookfield.

What can I say?  I'm a transplant from out-of-state and didn't realize I was buying a house in the Stepford Neighborhood.  On the plus side, the schools are very good, but as soon as my kids graduate, I'm getting my left-leaning ass out of here.

• ##### Unfortunately.....(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
HudsonValleyMark, Danise94

to say that Kloppenburg is winning except for Waukesha County is like saying Obama is losing in Illinois, except for Cook County.

It's a blood-red collar county.