GOP nominee Bill Maloney
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/11-12, West Virginia voters,
4/21-24 in parens):
Earl Ray Tomblin (D-inc): 45 (56)
Bill Maloney (R): 30 (23)
Undecided: 25 (21)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Last Saturday, acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin comfortably fended off a challenge from state House Speaker to win the Democratic primary, while businessman Bill Maloney upset former SoS Betty Ireland to nab the GOP nomination. I personally think the GOP wound up with their best candidate: Maloney's favorables are nothing great (23-24), but he's still mostly a blank slate. What's more, Maloney showed hustle and an ability to fundraise — both of which Ireland, who seemed to expect a coronation, largely lacked. Her favorables took a big hit over the course of the campaign, and indeed Tomblin would have started out with a slightly larger lead over her than Maloney.
Importantly, PPP's poll was actually taken before the election, so I suspect Maloney might be doing even better now, if he's gotten the usual post-primary bounce. But regardless of where Maloney's numbers actually are, Tomblin's 11-point drop is unsettling. Perhaps because of Thompson's negative campaigning, Tomblin's job approval fell from 49-24 to 40-27 in just a few weeks. Still, we need to ask whether these slides are genuine, or if they're just a blip. Either way, we need to wait and see what the next few polls reveal before drawing any conclusions.
Tom, meanwhile, is optimistic:
At any rate Tomblin is still in a strong position against Maloney, even if it's not as strong as it was a month ago. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in West Virginia, so for a Republican to win requires holding onto pretty much 100% of their party vote while also winning over a significant number of Democrats — in the neighborhood of 20-25%. Right now Maloney is doing neither of those things. He's getting only 11% of the Democratic vote and he's not sufficiently holding off Tomblin with Republicans either — the acting Governor gets 17% of the vote across party lines. There are a whole lot of undecided voters and Maloney showed comeback ability during the primary so it would be a mistake to write him off, but Tomblin is the clear favorite.
These numbers remind me a lot of many of the polls we saw from WV-Sen last year. Joe Manchin and John Raese both often scored in the mid-40s, but even in the best Republican year evar, getting over that hump proved impossible for Raese. Tomblin doesn't have Manchin's pedigree, but as Tom suggests, I still think there's something of a natural barrier that will make it hard for Maloney to win.
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