This was NY-26 on Election Night 2008.
How will it look on Tuesday?
The airwave bombardment of Western New York continues as we head into the final stretch, but Dem Kathy Hochul continues to lead in NY-26:
Siena College (5/18-20, likely voters, 4/26-4/27 in parens):
Kathy Hochul (D/WF): 42 (31)
Jane Corwin (R/I/C): 38 (36)
Jack Davis (T): 12 (23)
Ian Murphy (G): 1 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Jack Davis - shown to be cantankerous and crochety, if not crazy - has begun imploding, losing about half his support since Siena last weighed in a month ago. But, with Corwin's support relatively steady, it seems that those Davis voters are swinging to Hochul - which would be great news should Davis' support continue to drop in the next three days.
Looking at the crosstabs, Hochul's support is also the most solidified, with 73% saying there's "no chance" they will change their vote - compared to 66% for Corwin and 43% for Davis. As the race approaches the last few days, there's still a good chance of the race being upended, especially given Davis' downward trajectory.
The sample seems fairly representative, with Obama's approval at par, 48/48; one potential skew could be that the subsample shows Hochul performing better (+1) in the Republican heavy core of the district (which went 55-43 McCain) than in the Monroe/Livingston County eastern section (53-46 McCain), where she's down 4. (As expected, Hochul is doing the best in Erie County, leading Corwin 50-38).
Regardless, the race remains in flux, and Tuesday night (which we'll be liveblogging, of course) should be exciting!
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