Tommy Thompson is not looking especially popular
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-22, Wisconsin voters, 2/24-27 in parens, Dec. 2010 in brackets):
Russ Feingold (D): 54
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 39
Undecided: 7
Russ Feingold (D): 53 (50)
Mark Neumann (R): 41 (40)
Undecided: 6 (10)
Russ Feingold (D): 52 [49]
Tommy Thompson (R): 42 [40]
Undecided: 6 [11]
Russ Feingold (D): 53 (51)
JB Van Hollen (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 9 (10)
Tammy Baldwin (D): 48
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 37
Undecided: 15
Tammy Baldwin (D): 46
Mark Neumann (R): 41
Undecided: 13
Tammy Baldwin (D): 44
Tommy Thompson (R): 45
Undecided: 11
Tammy Baldwin (D): 46
JB Van Hollen (R): 39
Undecided: 15
Ron Kind (D): 45
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 37
Undecided: 18
Ron Kind (D): 44
Mark Neumann (R): 40
Undecided: 16
Ron Kind (D): 44
Tommy Thompson (R): 44
Undecided: 12
Ron Kind (D): 44
JB Van Hollen (R): 38
Undecided: 17
Steve Kagen (D): 43
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 38
Undecided: 19
Steve Kagen (D): 42
Mark Neumann (R): 41
Undecided: 17
Steve Kagen (D): 42
Tommy Thompson (R): 45
Undecided: 13
Steve Kagen (D): 43
JB Van Hollen (R): 38
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±2.4%)
First, I want to get something out of the way: Tommy Thompson is not popular. He's also not beloved, nor is he remembered fondly from his tenure as governor. He's decidedly mediocre, as PPP's third consecutive poll shows. Forty-two percent of respondents have a favorable view of him, and an identical 42% have an unfavorable view. March of 2010 (PDF), he was at 40-44. These are, simply put, not strong numbers.
And this is further borne out by the toplines. Thompson does no better than 45%, and trails Russ Feingold — the only person with comparable name recognition — by 10 points. Everyone else PPP tested ranges from 43% unknown (Attorney General JB Van Hollen) to 63% unknown (ex-Rep. Steve Kagen), yet even the other Democratic candidates hold Thompson at par. Of course, Thompson would have to win a GOP primary first for any of this to even matter, and given his track record of apostasies, I'm skeptical that he can. (I suspect PPP will have primary numbers out later this week.)
It's also heartening to see Democrats leading the way in every other matchup on the board. (Tom Jensen has some helpful charts showing the average margin by candidate.) Obviously, a lot will change between now and election day, and the Republicans will definitely make a strong play for this seat. But we have strong candidates to replace Herb Kohl, and right now, it looks like we have the edge.
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