And for once they are not American. This is a war that America has largely pulled back from and the fighters and bombers are being flown by Europeans and a couple of Arabs. Of course the US still has a major role in the fight, using everything from Predators and Global Hawks over Libya itself to the ships (a frigate and various spy and supply ships, among others) and aircraft off-shore (AWACS and aerial refueling), not to mention the satellites above it all.
Now the French and the British are about to get even closer to the nitty-gritty of armed combat in support of the Libyan Revolution without many more boots on the ground. The French are sending the Mistral class amphibious assault ship Tonnerre and the Brits are sending the HSM Ocean, a slightly older version of the same thing (similar to USS Bataan, already in theater but unlikely to engage). This class of vessel can carry a variable number of helicopters (10-40, depending on size) and can be a staging ground for many more. A force of modern NATO assault helicopters of this size (30 Apaches, say) could have lifted the siege of Misurata within days rather than the laborious and bloody months that it actually took.
When you are hiding a tank under a building you really appreciate NOT having a tank-killing copter see you go in.
While these vessels can land an armored force of 40 or more tanks, the more important factor might be the onboard hospitals with several operating rooms and intensive care berths.
This is a radical escalation. This would bring French and British pilots within the range of Gaddafi's forces' weapons. Why? We can all agree that everyone with the possible exception of Gaddafi himself wants this over fast. So are the Anglo-French responding to a stalemate or simply shoving at what it already falling?
Last week I said that what we are seeing is not a stalemate. This article agrees with me.
The advancement of technology has so reshaped our lives that we expect actions to have instant effects, inquiries to receive immediate answers, decisions to achieve rapid results. We don’t like or understand delay – so, as the Nato campaign in Libya has dragged on, it has been viewed increasingly as a failure. When David Cameron and Barack Obama issue joint statements of resolve, as they did yesterday, they are seen as empty words. The idea that the situation has become a stalemate – or worse, a quagmire – has become accepted truth.
Yet fixated as we are with the shortest of time frames, we have overlooked the steady shift of power that is under way in Libya. With each passing day, the regime grows weaker and the rebellion grows stronger. The rebel heartland in eastern Libya is militarily secure. As long as it can generate or receive enough funding, its future is assured – and these should hardly be a problem, given that it has control of some oilfields, access to the sea and sympathetic foreign governments on its side.
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When it comes to Nato’s role, the precision with which its attacks are carried out tends to mask the extent to which it has degraded the regime’s capabilities.
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Then there is the impact that repeated defeats, increasing casualty numbers and equipment losses will have on the morale of the regime’s troops and its foreign mercenaries, which has been ignored. The sense of gloom can only be reinforced by their inability to prevent Nato action.
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For Gaddafi’s troops, in other words, this is not a stalemate at all, but a one-sided conflict against an enemy they are incapable of opposing.
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The real danger, in short, is not of a protracted stalemate, but of a sudden regime collapse: ...
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It is therefore essential not just that Nato retains its resolve, but that the coalition is prepared for a sudden crumbling of the regime’s forces, and that it puts the plans and resources in place to deal with the aftermath. If we allow our disappointment at a lack of immediate results to convince us that Libya is locked in an inevitable stalemate, we may be caught out – with adverse consequences both for the Libyan people, and for ourselves.
My own feeling is that French and the British just hope to have this done sooner rather than later and these birds are going to help. I also have to say that I appreciate it when the intervening forces face some risk and don't simply stay up the stratosphere.