There has been much celebration 'round these parts as of late, watching the Republicans seemingly walk the plank by not just voting for the Ryan budget, but making it an article of faith in the Republican primary. Indeed, Newt Gingrich's campaign has collapsed in spectacular fashion, and the tipping point seemed to be his refusal to adhere to the dogma that Medicare ought to be privatized, and right quick, too.
In fairness, I have delighted in the GOP's self-immolation as much as the next person, but does this really mean that we're headed for resounding victories in November 2012? From reading many of the comments and diaries here, it appears we've answered that question in the affirmative.
I'd love to share everyone's optimism, but the election isn't for another 17 months and change. That is an eternity, and the attention span of the American electorate is heart-breakingly, jaw-droppingly short, as we've learned far too many times.
Yes, the NY-26 special election was so close in time to the House passage of the Ryan budget that it had to play a role, but who knows how effective that message will be in a year and a half?
Just think of 2008. It was a foreign policy election, with everyone talking about Iraq, Afghanistan, and the GWOT, until the housing bubble burst and the economy started to sink late in the game. Then, none of John McCain's perceived policy strengths mattered, the choice of Palin (as opposed to a VP nominee that actually knew something about the economy) seemed dangerous rather than merely strategic, and he couldn't overcome the (accurate) perception that this was a Republican-induced economic collapse. Against a powerful candidate like Obama, he was doomed. With Obama's natural strengths shining through to make him appear (again, accurately) as if he were the only serious candidate in the race, presto--sweeping Democratic victories.
Despite all the talk that people knew the economy was in rough shape, and they knew Obama couldn't turn it around overnight, they still punished him for not turning it around overnight by giving the House back to the Republicans. That's despite knowing that it was the Republicans that drove us into the ditch in the first place. Appalling, but people are desperate. They're flailing around, looking for someone to give them hope that they can just fix this. Every candidate knows it's not that easy, but admitting that you can't really fix the economy quickly is a great way to get trounced. Blunt truths don't play well in American politics. (See Walter Mondale in 1984.)
If the election were today, or in a week, or in a couple of months, I'd agree that we'd crush them, and it would be glorious. But if the economy doesn't feel like it's improving to Main Street (I know it is improving, but tell that to the factory workers whose jobs are never coming back), we'll still have a very tough election, assuming Republicans manage to regain their political footing and put their less popular ideologies away for the election year.
I understand that the GOP isn't demonstrating any signs of incipient adulthood, what with the unelectable-in-a-primary Romney currently leading the GOP Presidential polls, followed by the even-more-unelectable-in-a-primary Huntsman and the safe-but-sleep-inducing Pawlenty and a host of folks who are unelectable in a general election (Palin, Bachmann, Santorum, and Ron Paul being the recognizable names among them). At some point, however, at least one of the leading Presidential candidates will recognize the terrible politics of the Ryan budget plan, and will come up with framing that reassures seniors that their Medicare isn't going anywhere while paying homage to Ryan's "bravery." Republicans have always been good at messaging, and they'll figure something out here that takes out some of the sting. And if we don't hold their feet to the fire, it might even work.
Consider this October 2012 hypothetical: Unemployment is still around 8.7% (or has even climbed back above 9%). We've had some foreign policy setbacks, as the Middle East has spiraled out of control, and the American people have grown tired of our role in Libya (or our lack of a role in Bahrain, Syria or Iran). Republicans ultimately raised the debt ceiling, but extracted enough spending cuts to sink our fragile economic recovery (or keep it at a middling plateau), and managed to make Obama own the growing national debt, which hasn't gone away as a political issue. Indeed, the Republicans only agreed to raise the debt limit by enough to guarantee another vote on the debt limit in the heat of the 2012 election season. Oh, and the price of oil continues to climb. All reasonable possibilities. And all of a sudden, a budget vote in April 2011 doesn't seem as compelling.
My fingers are crossed, but this is the first inning of the campaign, folks. Yes, we just scored a lot of runs on the GOP's abandonment of Medicare, but there's a lot of political baseball yet to be played. And a lot of work for all of us to do. We cannot let them reframe this budget vote as anything other than making Grandma and Grandpa pay more for healthcare so that the richest among us don't have to pay their fair share. We need to neutralize the debt as an issue by offering our own smart budget plan (Sen. Conrad's plan, as amended to win over Sen. Sanders, is a good start). We need to make every Republican candidate for every office own this vote to cut Medicare. We need to pick great challengers for all of those GOP House freshmen and we need to be as loud a voice in redistricting as possible so that the newly-drawn districts are as good for us as they possibly can be (I'm serious -- go to the public hearings at your state legislature, get involved as plaintiffs or intervenors in the various redistricting lawsuits in your state, and call out gerrymandering when you see it). The Republicans have given us an opening. Let's drive a truck through it.