Quinnipiac (5/17-23, registered voters, no trendlines):
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47
Mike Haridopolos (R): 26
Undecided: 22
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48
Adam Hasner (R): 23
Undecided: 24
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47
George LeMieux (R): 27
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Obviously the huge spreads are a product of low name recognition for Nelson's putative Republican opponents. You might, therefore, be tempted to say that surely these GOPers are well-positioned to amp up their profiles and close the gap. Undoubtedly that will happen to one degree or another. But if you check out the cross-tabs, in each case, more Democrats are undecided than Republicans. These wavering Democrats are at least as likely to come home to Nelson as their counterparts are likely to return to the Republicans. There's still another prolem for the GOP, though, which is that Nelson also has big leads with independents, which make up the biggest bloc of undecideds. So I think their path to victory is tougher than it might look.
But there are other numbers from this poll which make me want to urge a bit of caution. Specifically, Barack Obama's job approval numbers soared sixteen points in just seven weeks, from a negative 44-52 to a positive 51-43. That's quite a bit bigger than the rise Obama saw nationally after bin Laden's death, but the more important issue is whether it will last. While PPP's polling has shown Obama's surge fading, Gallup's most recent test showed a spread as large as it was right after the announcement, so it's hard to read the situation.
Still, if there's any sitting senator whose numbers are capable of diverging (favorably) from the president's, I'd say it's Bill Nelson. That is to say, even if Obama is getting a temporary bounce, it may not have much effect on Nelson one way or the other. And in any event, Nelson's GOP opponents still have a lot of work to do, as evidenced by their primary numbers:
George LeMieux (R): 14
Mike Haridopolos (R): 13
Adam Hasner (R): 4
Undecided: 64
(MoE: ±4.6%)
There's a long way to go yet.
This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our
Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!