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The legislature passed an incumbent-protection map for Illinois members of Congress in 2000. In contrast, the proposed map released this morning could mix things up. I found the google maps version at Capitol Fax. Let's take a look at the central and southern districts.

Unsurprisingly, Jerry Costello maintains his strongly Democratic district in Southwestern Illinois. The addition of Mt. Vernon looks like the most significant change.

The new 15th district includes most of the rural, Republican areas currently represented by Republicans Tim Johnson and John Shimkus. If either of them want to run in a safely Republican district then they'll have to fight over this one.

Most of Tim Johnson's home town of Urbana is drawn into the new 13th district with areas he hasn't represented before. It includes Decatur, most of Springfield (minus the Republican west end), Bloomington, Democratic Macoupin county, and John Shimkus' home in Collinsville. This area is currently represented by four Republican Congressmen but doesn't clearly belong to any of them. It also looks like a district Democrats can win.

Shimkus' hometown base of support in Madison county is split between three districts. He'll have to 1) Run in a rural Republican 15th district that includes little of his home base and much of Tim Johnson's territory, or 2) Run in what appears to be a Democratic-winnable 13th district that includes many voters who are new to him.

As was rumored, Peoria is drawn into a district with Rock Island/Moline that should be heavily Democratic. This virtually guarantees that tea party Republican Bobby Schilling becomes a one-term Congressman. The same 17th district includes parts of Rockford, the home town of Republican Don Manzullo, and most of Peoria, home of Aaron Schock.

Schock lives in the new 18th district that stretches across central and western Illinois from Bloomington/Normal to Quincy. It includes little of his old state representative district in the Peoria area but looks strongly Republican.

Illinois Democrats will have a good year in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket. There will almost certainly be a new Democrat from the Rock Island/Moline - Peoria - Rockford 17th district. There's a reasonable chance of a new Democrat from the Decatur - Springfield -Champaign/Urbana 13th district.

If Republicans Schock, Johnson, and Shimkus want to run in a heavily Republican district then they'll have to introduce themselves to new voters in a district that won't include most of their hometown base. It will be interesting to see how the Shimkus/Johnson face-off is resolved.

Cross-posted from Where there's a Will, there's a way.

Originally posted to Willinois on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:12 AM PDT.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Dold and Walsh will also be gone. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, James Allen

    We have a chance at maybe 16 seats in IL

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:14:27 AM PDT

  •  LIKE (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson

    No more Manzullo representing Freeport! Woohoo!

    For the record, though, Manzullo isn't from Rockford. He's from Egan. That puts him in the new 16th.

    "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk." --Ian McDonald

    by Geenius at Wrok on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:23:02 AM PDT

    •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      for the correction on Manzullo. I'm not as familiar with that part of the state but it looks like he'll have to fight other Republican incumbents in the primary if he wants to stay in Congress. He sure as well won't with the 17th even though it includes large parts of his current district.

      •  Fun fact (0+ / 0-)

        Manzullo is the most conservative member of the Illinois congressional delegation, yet he has been allowed to represent a swing district relatively unopposed by Democrats. I gotta say though, this new Rock Island to Rockford district is genius.

        "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 27, 2011 at 12:42:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  New 17th is excellent. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, ArkDem14

          I wasn't sure if they would combine Rock Island/Moline with Peoria or Rockford. Doing both is diabolical. If Mike Boland runs it will be a cakewalk.

          Yes Manzullo is nutty and I had my fingers crossed that he would be districted out. District 16 would be a lot of new territory for him so I hope he has a primary (if he doesn't retire).

          13 could be a little more Democratic but a Springfield - Decatur - Champaign district is exactly what I was hoping for. I'm pretty happy.  13 may vote Republican but it won't be for an anti-science talk radio nut like Shimkus.

        •  Utilizing Rockford was a must do (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          It was long locked into the configuration, only being represented once by a Democrat after Lynn Martin opted to run for Senate and was ultimately unsuccessful. Now, it's in a district when those votes will be very helpful for Democrats.

          25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Fri May 27, 2011 at 06:57:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  So, if Schrock doesn't run in the 18th, (0+ / 0-)

    who is left to run there?

    •  Anyone (0+ / 0-)

      The 18th is a heavily Republican district, but it's not home base to any sitting member of Congress. There are plenty of GOP state reps and senators who could take it.

      On the Dem side, the most obvious candidate would be State Senator John Sullivan. He has a reputation as a moderate and already represents a large portion of the district. He might even have a fighting chance against Schock in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket.

  •  It is SCHOCK, (0+ / 0-)

    as Ed Schrock was a former VA Congressman.

    Anyway, I see some Quincy/Jacksonville-based GOPer having IL-18 IF Schock doesn't want it.

  •  Another advantage IL Dems have (5+ / 0-)

    Is that a lot of the incumbent repubs from Illinois are freshmen who only won in 2010 by fluke.  Many of these are hardcore right-wingers with no chance of holding these new districts.

    •  Not true. (0+ / 0-)

      The Republican districts are vote sinks. The only freshmen who will likely still be around is Hultgren, and his district is a 50% Obama seat, which is pretty safe R in Illinois.

      17, R, IL-10. Summer (Internship starting in June): DC-AL. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

      by IllinoyedR on Fri May 27, 2011 at 11:49:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Do I understand correctly that for the 17th (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Geenius at Wrok

    that Quincy is out and Peoria is in? Quincy, BTW, played a big part in winning that seat for Schilling.

    Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

    by JTinDC on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:32:09 AM PDT

    •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geenius at Wrok

      Quincy is moved to IL-18.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:39:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

      The more I look at it the more I think that Senator John Sullivan could beat Schock in that district even though it is Republican.

      Schock won't have his Peoria base. He's never had a really tough Democratic opponent. It will be an Obama year. Sullivan represents a large portion of the district that Schock hasn't represented before. That would be a serious race.

      •  His Peoria base - this is what has me concerned. (0+ / 0-)

        Peoria is a hell of a lot bigger than Quincy. Did we improve things for the 17th or make them worse? Or is Peoria more Dem than GOP? It's been years since I lived there and when I did I didn't follow poltics at all, as opposed to being the junky I am now.

        Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

        by JTinDC on Fri May 27, 2011 at 01:26:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 17th is strongly Democratic. (0+ / 0-)

          The parts of Peoria added to the 17th lean Democratic. Besides that, the bulk of 17 voters will be in Rock Island/Moline and Rockford. Most of 17 doesn't know Schock and they're Democrats. He won't win there.

          Schock will probably run in the 18th and win there, but 17 can be won with any good Democratic candidate.

          •  They took a district that (0+ / 0-)

            voted for Kerry 51-48 and by the looks of it inched it up to 53-47 or something like that.  Obama got 59.7% to McCain's 38.8%; translated into two party vote to keep the comparison with 2004 the same: Obama 60.6%, McCain 39.4%.

            They perhaps made this district safer than you needed to, but I think they might be hedging their bets in case Phil Hare is our nominee in 2012.

            Also, I think they really wanted to try to draw a "neat" map, and they generally succeeded in that.  I don't think they gave any of the newspaper columnists much to complain about with ugly lines.  But that neatness probably prevented them from grabbing Peoria to put into the new 13th, which would have surely brought it up to 58% Obama+ rather than 55%.  Since they didn't feel like they could use Peoria for the Springfield-Champana-Decatur district, why continue to waste it in a vote sink like the IL-18?  

            •  Peoria (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson, MichaelNY

              It looks like the more Dem parts of Peoria are in 17 and the more Republican areas are in 18. I can understand the rationale there.

              Peoria would have made perfect sense in 13 if they hadn't drawn it southward to include Shimkus' home in Collinsville.

              It's not just newspaper columnists that didn't like the old 17th. A lot of people in Springfield and Decatur have been pissed about their districts for 10 years. Dividing Springfield between three Congressman, with a tiny sliver in the 17th was grotesque. Living over 150 miles from their Congressman was not acceptable to many. I hope that putting most of Springfield into one district was in response to the public outrage. The new district looks much better.

        •  Peoria has a strong AA and union population (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, MichaelNY

          Historically Peoria has been represented by Republican Congressman (former House Minority Leader Bob Michel, current Treasury Secretary Ray LaHood) but until Schock they were not super conservative Republicans. And at the state legislative level, Schock got in to represent Peoria as a Republican but as soon as he moved on it went back to being a state Dem seat just like there's a Dem state Senate seat that covers Peoria.

      •  That was my first reaction but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        thinking more about it, Schock has represented quite a swath of the territory in the new 18th previously. The rich Republican "suburbs" of Peoria that are Washington and Morton are in the 18th while they carved out Pekin and Canton for the 17th. Sullivan would really need to connect with the farmers/rural folks of that district something fierce. I'm not saying he couldn't, but it would be tough.

  •  . (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koolbens, MichaelNY

    This map is like the Dem version of Delay/Texas, except completely legitimate within the process.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Sat May 28, 2011 at 04:28:13 AM PDT

  •  Johnson will run in IL-15 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    His spokesman said as much to Lee newspapers yesterday.

    http://www.pantagraph.com/...

    The proposed 15th District, which the Republican’s Urbana residence falls just inside, captures the entire southeastern portion of Illinois. The proposed 15th District comprises 33 of Illinois’ 102 counties, but takes out much of his existing base in Champaign-Urbana and McLean County.

    “This map is a slap in the face to the notion of representative government,” Johnson said in a statement Friday.

    Johnson’s spokesman Phil Bloomer said Johnson should be a strong candidate in the new district, but it’s still an unfortunate turn of events.

    “It’s easily the largest district, geographically, within the state,” Bloomer said. “It was a challenge before to represent 22 counties, and now it’s going to be even more challenging (representing 33). It’s extremely unfortunate we were given this map two days before the Legislature exits.”

    Schock is well taken care of in the new 18th. I think they didn't want him to run statewide so they gave him the best deal of the Downstaters.

    •  I would tend to agree... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      I also think that Johnson is better positioned than Shimkus for running in the IL-15.  Not only does he represent the majority of the seat already; but as someone high up in seniority on the House Agriculture Committee, I would think that will be a strength in a mostly rural district.

      Shimkus is so screwed he doesn't even know it!

    •  I hope so. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Tim Johnson has a reputation as a moderate and could win either the 13th or 15th. But, Shimkus has gone off the deep end politically. People in college towns like Bloomington and Champaign, which he hasn't represented before, aren't going to sit there and listen to his anti-science idiocy like claiming that CO2 can't be harmful or that global warming isn't real because he thinks the Bible says so. Shimkus is too extremist for 13, even if it is an relatively evenly split district. If Shimkus runs in 13, and Democrats have a good candidate, then that's another Dem pickup.

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