Today, the Arab League "suspended" the Middle East peace process, citing the absence of a willing, good-faith partner in Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
The focus, for both the Arab League and for the Palestinians, has now officially shifted squarely on attaining recognition of Palestine as a sovereign state by the United Nations in September.
For an analysis of this tactical reversal, as well as a look at what transpired today, join me over the fold.
I. Tachlis – What Happened Today
In today's meeting of the Arab League, which was convened to discuss how to move forward on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, three items of import occurred:
1. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas declared that there was currently no hope for peace talks with Netanyahu, and that the Palestinians' only option was to circumvent Israel by going to the UN. As reported in Haaretz, Abbas said:
"We see from the conditions that Netanyahu laid out that there are no shared foundations ... for negotiations. Our fundamental option is to go to the United Nations," Abbas said in his opening remarks.
"This is no secret, we have said it to the Americans and the Europeans and the Israelis, our only option is to go to the United Nations," he said.
2. The Arab League, at the behest of Qatar, formally moved to suspend the Middle East peace process. Al Jazeera reports:
Qatar proposed at the meeting that the Middle East peace process should not be resumed until Israel was "ready."
"We will suspend for the moment the peace process until there is a willing partner" in negotiations from the Israeli side, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, the Qatari prime minister, said as he opened the Arab monitoring committee meeting.
Haaretz, care of Reuters, reports that the Arab League Secretary General echoed the sentiment of the Qatari Prime Minister:
Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, a leading candidate for the Egyptian presidency, told Reuters that Netanyahu had presented nothing but a series of "no's" in his speech to the U.S. Congress.
"The sound path is going to the United Nations and political struggle," Moussa said. "I believe that negotiations have become futile in light of all of these nos. What will you negotiate on?"
3. The Arab League plans to seek full UN membership for Palestine at the UN (at most), and recognition of Palestine as a state at minimum. From Haaretz:
An Arab League committee decided on Saturday to seek full UN membership for a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital, it said in a statement.
The Arab League's peace process follow-up committee said it would request membership for the state of Palestine at the UN General Assembly's meeting in New York in September.
"The committee decided to go to the United Nations to request full membership for Palestine on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital," it said in a statement.
II. What Today Means
A. The Arab League symbolically "suspending" peace talks with Israel (or, more specifically, with Netanyahu) is simultaneously a public relations maneuver as well as a shrewd diplomatic shift. By suspending the Middle East peace process and citing the reason for doing so being the lack of a peace partner on the opposing side, the Palestinians and the Arab League have taken a page out of Netanyahu's book, and in doing so, have further weakened the Israeli position.
For weeks, Netanyahu has been proclaiming that, with Hamas joining a Palestinian unity government, the Israelis have no partner for peace. Now, after Netanyahu's speech before congress, the Arab League has returned the favor and gone one step further in declaring a suspension of talks until a willing partner can be found.
The tactical shrewdness of this move from a diplomatic perspective should not be undervalued, for Netanyahu, in his speech, clearly revealed that he has no intention of being a good-faith partner in peace talks. (Declaring that Jerusalem will remain the undivided capital of a Jewish state tends to accomplish this.)
This symbolic "suspension" of talks is being done by the Arab League, on behalf of the Palestinians, with one goal in mind: building diplomatic momentum for the United Nations in September.
B. And so, what about that United Nations in September event on the horizon? Today, the Arab League expressed that it intends to push for Palestine to become a full UN member.
This they will not accomplish, for the UN Security Council, of which the United States is a member, must approve such a move. President Obama has pledged to veto any such effort. So why make the attempt, and state that such an attempt will be made? Again, to further generate momentum and sympathy as September looms, and to subtly pressure the United States to reconsider its position.
What will the Arab League and the Palestinians achieve in September? They will most certainly attain a resolution from the UN General Assembly calling upon the world community to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state.
Many countries have already done so, and many more are likely to do so both before and after September.
Bottom line, in my opinion: the Arab League and the Palestinians are moving the ball forward as Israel remains paralyzed by ineffectual leadership.
Unless events change, and Netanyahu's ruling coalition either crumbles under the pressure of a looming diplomatic catastrophe, or Netanyahu caves under such pressure, one thing is for sure: Israel stands the most to lose. And that, to me, is a painful statement to make.