Hi all,
This is is my first diary at DailyKos Elections, although my DailyKos work goes back to 2003. As a longtime admirer of Swing State Project, I'm glad to see their work gain momentum and well-deserved acclaim. It's hard to believe, but in 2003 I was one of a handful of bloggers doing analysis of non-Presidential races across the country. I'm glad to see so many people take over that field and expand it!
Today, I want to discuss the upcoming election for State Senate and Assembly in New Jersey (my home turf), which will occur in November 2011. Why does New Jersey matter? Right now, the Senate and Assembly are the only things standing between Chris Christie and absolute power - a scary scenario to say the least! As such, the Republican Party is going to work hard to take over the legislature - and the Democrats are working just as hard to stop them.
I will cover the first group of competitive races here, and analyze the rest later this week.
Note: I'm running for Town Council in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey this year. My website is here for those interested in taking a look.
Currently, Democrats hold a 24-16 majority in the State Senate and a 47-33 majority in the State Assembly. They have been helped by a favorably drawn map in 2001 (decided by an independent 3rd party arbitrator), the financial backing of former Senator/Governor Jon Corzine, a strong political organization in many of its 21 counties, and the political demographics of the state. Remember: no Republican has won a US Senate seat in the Garden State since 1972, and no Republican has won a majority of the vote for Governor since 1985.
Yet the dynamics have changed radically since Chris Christie's election in 2009. While the Democrats in the Assembly survived the Republican's victory virtually unscathed (no incumbents lost and just 1 open seat flipped), the new Governor's in-your-face attitude and confrontational posturing has invigorated the New Jersey GOP, which in previous years had been led by politically ineffectual leaders like Leonard Lance and Alex DeCroce. While Democrats in the Legislature have blocked some of Christie's efforts, the New Jersey electorate is more furious about taxes and spending than ever before. Together with Christie's successful demonizing of public employees (teachers in particular), you have the makings of a heated battle for the Legislature in 2011.
Redistricting once again went the Democrats' way, but with a map that sought to maintain the status quo as much as possible. Professor Alan Rosenthal, the 3rd party arbiter on the redistricting commission may have given the Democrats a leg up in holding their majority, but a number of the State Senate/Assembly districts will be competitive nonetheless. They are, in numerical order:
NJ-02: Centered in Atlantic County (and Atlantic City), this district is represented by State Senator Jim Whelan (a Democrat and former AC Mayor) and Assemblymen Vince Polistina and John Amadeo (both Republicans). Polistina is challenging Whelan, as may AC Mayor Lorenzo Langford as an Independent. The district was long the bailiwick of Republican leader Bill Gormley, and Whelan has been the only Democrat to serve in the Assembly from the district since 1982.
This will be an expensive and possibly nasty race, with no love lost between Whelan, Polistina and Langford (a Democrat opposed to Whelan). The Democrats have nominated Freeholder (akin to County Commissioner) Alisa Cooper and Damon Tyner for Assembly; they will be underdogs, with Whelan having a better chance at victory.
NJ-03: Redistricting shifted freshman Republican Assemblyman Dominick DiCicco from NJ-04, which means he will have to run against the ticket headed by State Senate President Steve Sweeney. Incumbents John Burzichelli and Celeste Riley (both Democrats) will face DiCicco and 2009 candidate Bob Villare, with sacrificial lamb Michael Mulligan facing Sweeney. Ousting DiCicco is the likeliest pickup for the Democrats in this Gloucester County/Cumberland County-centered district.
NJ-04: This district lost DiCicco and picked up Democratic turf in Camden County, boosting the chances of Senator Fred Madden and Assemblyman Paul Moriarity Gabriela Mosquera joins them on the Democratic ticket, and they have the edge against Republicans Giancarlo D'Orazio and Shelley Lovett/Agnes Gardiner. This, too should be a Democratic pickup.
NJ-07: Slightly north of Camden in Burlington County, this district will be hotly contested as well. Popular Republican State Senator Diane Allen is probably a lock, but her new running mates are not. Assemblyman Joe Malone was shifted from a dark-red Ocean County district to the decidedly purplish 7th, and he will face Democratic Assemblyman Herb Conaway and activist Troy Singleton in November. Malone's running mate is Christopher Halgas. The Assembly race here will be close.
NJ-08: This "race" developed as fast as Carl Lewis on a sprint. Wait a second...Carl Lewis IS running for State Senate here! The Olympic medalist is the Democrats' choice to challenge new State Senator Dawn Marie Addiego in a slightly Republican district. However, the Secretary of State (aka Christie's Lieutenant Governor) ruled that Lewis was not a New Jersey resident long enough to qualify; as the case in pending in court, Lewis remains on the ballot for now. Should Lewis succeed in his appeal, he will have to "run like the wind" to defeat Addiego, who definitely has a "head start" in this one. Republican incumbents Scott Rudder and Patrick Delaney face Sharon Pertnoy-Schmidt and Raymond Storck.
Enough with the puns, and enough with this diary...for now. Stay tuned in the next few days for the rest of my analysis of the competitive districts in New Jersey worth watching in 2011!