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Senate:

FL-Sen: Politico says that former steakhouse CEO and 2010 FL-24 GOP primary loser Craig Miller is now "leaning toward" a Senate run and is in DC meeting with Republican bigs. In late April, Miller said he'd make up his mind "within the next few weeks," so he's getting down to decision time if he plans to stick to his timetable.

Gubernatorial:

IA-Gov: One of these days, PPP will release a new poll that does not qualify as "even worse news" for a Republican officeholder — but that day is not today. Summer intern Michael Sadowsky pens his first post over at PPP's blog, informing us that Terry Branstad's job approval has sunk to 39-47, down from 41-45 in April.

KY-Gov: Dem Gov. Steve Beshear has a new ad out touting his budget-balancing credentials, though the campaign isn't saying how big the buy is and the ad doesn't appear to be available on Beshear's YouTube account. If you see a link anywhere, please let us know.

WA-Gov: Shocking, I know: After what I think can fairly be called years of anticipation, Republican AG Rob McKenna will finally launch his campaign for governor today, according to Dave Catanese.

House:

CA-36: Hrm… Politico is claiming that internal polling has Democrat Janice Hahn up only five points over Craig Huey in the special election, and that Hahn's campaign "declined to confirm" the numbers. I guess that means they also declined to deny them?

IL-12: Another unusual choice by the NRCC. This time, they're spending about $20K on TV ads trying to accuse Rep. Jerry Costello of "bankrupting Medicare." Despite getting lacerated on Medicare due to the Ryan plan (or perhaps because they're getting lacerated), the GOP has been attempting to attack Democrats here and there of the sin which they themselves are guilty of. It's a classic Rovian move, but it doesn't seem to be gaining any traction in the media — and that's what these early, tiny buys are all about.

MN-08: Ex-Rep. Richard Nolan, who left Congress in 1980 after serving three terms but has been talking about a comeback bid this cycle, tells Stuart Rothenberg he's "'99 percent' likely to run." Nolan represented a district which snaked from the southwestern part of the state to the very middle (see map), but originally hails from Brainerd, which is in GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack's 8th CD. However, there are already two Democrats in the race, Duluth Councilman Jeff Anderson and ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark, but what's more, the fate of this district is now in the hands of the courts.

NY-09: If Anthony Weiner were to step down — or to not get redistricted into oblivion and face a semi-serious GOP challenge next year — who could run against him? City Hall News suggests City Councilman Eric Ulrich, state court judge (and former councilman) Noach Dear, and 2010 candidate Bob Turner, a self-funding businessman who pulled in 41% of the vote last year.

Other Races:

WI Recall: Looks like the GOP is going all-in on its plan to run fake candidates in Democratic primaries to delay the recall elections. State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said he fully supports the plan ("It gives us another month to campaign"), and local GOPers have recruited some huckleberry to run in the primary against Democrat Shelly Moore, who is challenging Sen. Sheila Harsdorf. I believe that makes three such dweebs that we know about, but it sounds like Republicans aim to do it in all six GOP recalls. (Hat-tip: Taniel)

Meanwhile, Rep. Sandy Pasch just launched the first salvo in the recall air wars, slamming GOPer Alberta Darling for cutting education to give tax cuts to the wealthy. You can see the spot here.

Grab Bag:

EMILY: Three more candidates just got endorsements from EMILY's List: Tarryl Clark (MN-08), Kate Marshall (NV-02), and Elizabeth Esty (CT-05).

Maps: This is a seriously cool interactive map from CUNY's Center for Urban Research, showing ethnic group changes in the NYC region from 2000 to 2010. Be sure to play with the slider bar in the middle. (And it really does work better in Chrome, as the pop-up warns you.) More background here, plus a sortable table and block-level maps.

State Leges: The exceedingly useful Ballotpedia has a helpful roundup of which states are still in the midst of their regular legislative sessions (just 16, though three will wrap this week), and which are conductive special sessions (three, with two more on the way). Useful for keeping watch on when redistricting might take place.

WADN?: That is, Where Are the Douchebags Now? Why, the US Chamber of Commerce, of course. Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh just took a job to shill for this most corporatist of front groups. But he's only staying true to the promise he made when he explained why he was leaving the Senate last year: "I want to be engaged in an honorable line of work."

Redistricting Roundup:

Nevada: It's dead, Jim: As expected, the Nevada legislature adjourned without reaching any agreement on redistricting maps. Unless a very unlikely compromise happens and the governor calls a special session, this one will get decided in the courts.

Oregon: Meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans have pulled off that unlikeliest of compromises and are near an agreement on a legislative map (which you can see here). There's still no sign of a possible deal on a congressional map, though perhaps once the state plan gets resolved, legislators will return their focus to federal matters.

South Carolina: A state House plan passed the GOP's redistricting maps (both legislative and congressional), and now they'll go before the full chamber.

Texas: The full state Senate passed the Republican-backed congressional plan along strictly party lines, moving the map to the House. Charles Kuffner has some partisan breakdowns for the new districts.

Note: Tomorrow's digest will be brought to you by Daily Kos Contributing Editor Steve Singiser.



This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!


Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sigh (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, Taget, gabjoh

    Evan Bayh, I used to like you.

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:05:49 AM PDT

  •  Strange "rising star" article (0+ / 0-)

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:12:13 AM PDT

    •  Dare I suggest a hint of bias? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

      From that article:

      A petulant Conway now says Republicans are “mean and out of bounds” for asking legitimate questions about his involvement in a police investigation of his brother. The inquiries will continue until Conway either answers or loses again.

      Um...seems a bit presumptuous, doesn't it? I realize it's an op-ed, but making a declarative statement that Atty. Gen. Conway has to do something or else he will lose (when I believe he's strongly outpolled Vulcan ambassador attorney P'Pool in the [admittedly limited range of] numbers we've seen so far) sounds like asking for somebody to earmark a heaping plate of crow for him to eat later on.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:43:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It says (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      "That campaign, in which Republican Rand Paul beat Conway by 11.5 percent, is best remembered for Kentucky's worst campaign commercial ever — Conway's infamous “Aqua Buddha” ad."

      Ok, that cannot possibly be the worst campaign commercial ever in Kentucky.  I mean, I don't want to debate that ad.  But come on.  Was this based on a thorough review of primary source material?  I can't find any database of Kentucky political advertisements.

      (I will say that a little Googling suggests that Kentucky has a prouder racial history than some of its neighbor states.  http://www.kywcrh.org/....  "Kentucky Governors for Desegregation"--pre-1964!  Maybe this is well-known and I'm showing my ignorance, but it makes me smile.)

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:50:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Would Nolan (0+ / 0-)

    also be considered an outsider in the 8th?

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:13:56 AM PDT

  •  I really do... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Want to see a stiff VRA challenge to the Republican disenfranchise-a-palooza in South Carolina and Texas. Hopefully Atty. Gen. Holder just mails identical notes to Austin and Columbia reading, "Nice try," and the federal government laughs its way to a judicial smackdown.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 05:39:03 AM PDT

  •  OR (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    I cannot imagine the Republicans agreeing to anything we would like, so how bad is the damage in OR?

    30/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:07:34 AM PDT

    •  James Allen posted a great diary on it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Link here.

      I think the consensus is that it could be worse, but it could also be much better, and Democrats can do much better by kicking it up to Secy. Brown.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:45:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It looks like there were probably some (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      good moves in two or three districts, other than that it mostly looks like incumbent protection, and given we're at 30-30 in the house and 16-14 in the senate, but still have a hefty registration edge, we should be able to do much better than incumbent protection.

      If this is the map they really want, and they get it, then I'm going to think pretty badly of them.

      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:22:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-36: If true, this could be a wake-up call... (4+ / 0-)

    ...for Team Hahn not to get complacent and assemble the necessary, competent ground game to muster what should be an easy double-digit victory. If Huey really comes within single-digits, that's pretty pathetic.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:13:24 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, (4+ / 0-)

      this isn't good. I was weary of Hahn from the start. She lost a fairly reliable blue district before. One could argue that this is just a fundraising ploy, make it look competitive to get money and what not. I just don't know though. If this one is single digits then I hate to see Hahn in a significantly less Dem district. I mean Huey is no moderate, this shouldn't be close.  

      Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

      by drhoosierdem on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:42:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not happy about this at all (7+ / 0-)

      Hopefully it's just all smoke and no fire as Politico is wont to report. They even noted that Democratic insiders aren't too concerned and Republican strategists aren't really engaging.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:48:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then it may just be Politico blowing smoke... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        As usual. I haven't heard anything yet from Cali on Dems flipping out or GOPers doubling down on CA-36.

      •  smoke? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andyroo312, MichaelNY

        If it were smoke Hahn would have come out with her own internal unless she hasn't been polling at all. It's a weird result in any case, because the Dem vote in the jungle primary was about 56% and the Reep vote 42%, and I would suspect that the other Reeps' voters would be more likely to defect to Hahn than Bowen or Winograd voters to defect to Huey.

        SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:17:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Is the only reason I even bothered posting this - the quiet response from Hahn. Remember when Jane Corwin refused to release internal polling? The difference, of course, is that Corwin also attacked the public polling, which was stupid since she had nothing to back it up with. Hahn might just be playing this one close to the vest. I freakin' hope.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:24:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not the same universe of voters (3+ / 0-)

          Turnout in the runoff, unless this thing looks like a dead heat and gets visible to ordinary voters, will be almost certainly lower than the first round, with only 2 candidates this time and the perception it's a blue seat, not very competitive.

          I could easily see where the losing Dems' first-round voters might be less likely to show up at all than the losing Goopers' first-round voters.  That can account for the tight polling.

          I don't like this, this is the sort of thing I get paranoid about, and why a small part of me was paranoid that Huey made the runoff at all.  There's obviously some wind at his back among voters, or else he wouldn't have surged late the last time.

          I'm at least glad Hahn is on top of this and airing ads.  The messaging in her first ad doesn't seem relevant to the issues most voters care about today, but it is a blue district and scaring Democrats into showing up at all for the runoff might be all that's needed.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:14:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The article says there is no panic (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, itskevin, MichaelNY

      And that the GOP isn't really expecting anything.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:53:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  5 points is 5 points (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, NMLib

        If Hahn is up only 5 in her internals, that's worrying.

        That Hahn got in the air so quickly with an attack ad supports the point.  I actually wondered in the back of my mind when I first saw she was airing this attack ad if there was some concern in her world.

        The upside is that she appears on top of this and is airing an attack ad relatively early, which is the appropriate response and usually works.  She's doing this 5 weeks out, she's not getting Coakleyed.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:17:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hahn is running ads against Huey (3+ / 0-)

      comparing him to Sarah Palin. So she certainly doesnt seem to be taking the race for granted.

  •  CA -51 Bob Filner (4+ / 0-)

    HotlineOnCall over at National Journal is running a story about how Bob Filner has sold his CA-51 Home for a San Diego Condo and is planning to run for Mayor of San Diego.  Part of the motivation is given to the growth of Hispanic voting power in the vicinity and the fact Filner has previously been challenged by Juan Carlos Vargas in primaries in past elections.  Vargas is seen as a potential successor.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:19:05 AM PDT

  •  WI RECALL S32 - stalking horse announces (4+ / 0-)

    The GOP has found their false Dem stalking horse to run in the Democratic primary against Jennifer Schilling in the recall effort of Dan Kapanke for the 32nd Senate District.

    http://lacrossetribune.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:25:05 AM PDT

  •  no recap of last night? (4+ / 0-)

    Carl Lewis won his uncontested primary! What a shocker.

  •  WI RECALL - GOP criminal indictments possible (6+ / 0-)

    The 3 Judge panel on the State Elections Board has been forwarded the mountain of claims and evidence relating to possible voter fraud committed by the three GOP committees seeking to recall Democratic Senators Dave Hansen, Jim Holperin, and Robert Wirch.

    Options range from confirming the GOP recall efforts and starting the official recall campaign against the 3 Democratic Senators all the way to a felony voter fraud investigation of the GOP recall efforts.

    How can bribing coeds with free shots of liquor at Taverns in exchange for signing a recall petition not be fraud?

    The GOP recall leaders , of course, have called for the defunding of the State Elections Board and are accusing them of blatant favoritism toward the Democrats.  The Board is not biased.  Nothing in the Supreme Court recount ever suggested a bias toward Kloppenburg at any point.  The GOP thinks that the purpose of government is to advance whatever the GOP wants whenever the GOP wants it.  Sorry, not this time conservatives.

    http://www.gazettextra.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:38:03 AM PDT

  •  I'll take Weiner over those 3 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MAVoter, MichaelNY

    Some googlemachine tells me Noach Dear did make some good decisions as a judge about debt collection practices, but there is also this:

    Only seven years ago, Brooklyn City Councilman Noach Dear appeared to be headed for political oblivion, if not jail, when he was found receiving nearly $250,000 a year from a charity he headed called the Save Soviet Jewry Foundation. After an investigation by the state attorney general, Noach returned more than $37,000 to the now defunct nonprofit.

    Today Noach Dear is running in a tight race for Congress, vying for Chuck Schumer's open seat with three other Democrats. Like Al D'Amato and George Pataki, the conservative Dear has been presenting a kinder, gentler version of himself, backing away from his right-wing voting record and lifetime of hostile rhetoric towards gays, blacks, and women. Indeed, the man who voted against several major AIDS and gay civil-rights bills before the City Council last year said that he "believes in equal rights for gays because discrimination is not a religious right."

    The article mentioned that former Councilwoman Melinda Katz once ran against Weiner for the seat, and she stayed in the game recently losing a comptroller race, but she's since cashed out.  

    My advice to Weiner is not to put his head down -- he made his name being a loudmouth, and if he is to go out, that's how he should do it.  Whether he can keep his seat is entirely circular (depending only on the perception of whether he can keep his seat).  Why not test the proposition?  Michele Bachmann is running for President, we need this guy!  

    "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

    by Loge on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:49:32 AM PDT

    •  Apparently local Democrats... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Are looking at Eric N. Gioia, a former city councilman, as a potential primary opponent or seat-filler for Rep. Weiner. Story here.

      No word on whether Gioia is interested, whether insiders expect Weiner to have a district to run in next year, or how high-level these Democrats reportedly meeting with Gioia are.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:05:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  joke (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, TofG, MichaelNY

        thats gotta be a joke. First of all, Weiner will end up in a primary versus some incumbent. But even if not, Gioia represented Astoria and Sunnyside in NW queens, of which 0 % even overlaps with Weiner's district. Its mostly in Maloney's district, and a little in Crowley's. Whoever wrote that article that mentioned him (which i saw as well) clearly did not fact check.

        •  Speaking of jokes, Eric Gioia (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, TofG

          He ran for Public Advocate in 2009, outspending all of his opponents combined and finishing a distant third in the primary. There's no reason to think he'd be an overwhelming favorite in any race.

          What about Elizabeth Holtzman? She represented this area in the House in the '70s (before becoming Brooklyn D.A. in the '80s and NYC Comptroller in the '90s) and has been making noises about trying some form of a political comeback. (She almost ran for AG in 2010, but backed Kathleen Rice instead.)

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:45:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Virginia Congressional Redistricting News (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, itskevin, KingofSpades

    Here is a somewhat informative article about how there is a debate about where to put Roanoke in the new Congressional map. Presently, it's in the 6th CD and the Dems in the VA State Senate have put it in the 9th (as in the most Southwestern district) as a part of shifting things around to create a second majority-minority district.

    Most interesting is this nice little morsel in the middle of the article:

    The Senate plan was developed with the intent to create a second minority-opportunity district in the state. Virginia has a black population of nearly 20 percent, but blacks make up a majority of the voting age population in just one district -- the 3rd District, represented by Rep. Robert "Bobby" Scott, D-Newport News.

    The Senate plan would redraw the 4th District, now represented by Republican Randy Forbes of Chesapeake, to give it a majority black population. The population in Scott's district would be 44.6 percent black.

    Based on this information, I'm assuming that under the VA Senate plan Scott's district would be majority-minority with an African-American plurality. The article mentions how if Scott's district is under 50% black, that might create problems with the VRA - as one might expect, it was a Republican legislator emphasizing this point.

    Having looked at the plans at http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/..., it appears that there is also a substitute plan making Scott's district 45% black.

    Solid Liberal Democrat, born and raised in VA-06, went to school in VA-05, currently living in Italy. My SSP username was the same.

    by GeoffreyVS on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:54:58 AM PDT

  •  Beshear's new ad (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, itskevin, KingofSpades, MichaelNY
    Dem Gov. Steve Beshear has a new ad out touting his budget-balancing credentials, though the campaign isn't saying how big the buy is and the ad doesn't appear to be available on Beshear's YouTube account. If you see a link anywhere, please let us know.

    Here ya go.

  •  Noach Deer - rabid right wing bigot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo

    Jeez, let's hope that Noach Deer never gets anywhere near the halls of Congress - every single member of the Islamophobia faction of the far right/teahist party would have their most loudmouth spokesman in him.

    Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

    by Randian on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:05:14 AM PDT

    •  Do you have a link? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      Deer seems to have a shitty record on any number of things, but I can't find anything about Muslim stuff.

      But still...

      Dear, of course, led the opposition to New York City's gay rights bill; was the only member of the Brooklyn City Council delegation to vote against the 1998 domestic partnership bill; and, in an abortive Congressional run as a republican against Anthony Weiner, had the latter's speeches in favor of LGBT equality taped and then replayed to Orthodox audiences. As bigots go, he is nothing if not consistent; so perhaps it's not a surprise that he's also done business with Apartheid-era South Africa. In that context, it's particularly ironic that, while running in a black-majority district for state Senate, he called himself Noah and pretended to be black.

      (or at least put out mailings with pictures of black people, but not of himself.)

      (http://www.dailygotham.com/... via http://diane-vera.livejournal.com/...)

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:17:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One example (2+ / 0-)

        Here is an older article from the NY Daily News

        Anger, bitterness and fear about Middle East violence swept through the streets of New York yesterday and spilled into the usually staid City Council chamber.
        While Jews and Arabs around the city wondered aloud if peace would ever come, Council members fought over resolutions that condemned Palestinian violence against Israel.
        The measures specifically branded Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat as a terrorist who helped train Palestinians to spill blood.
        Three Council members walked out in protest, but the resolutions passed unanimously among the remaining members.

        and

        The City Council clamor was sparked by Councilman Noach Dear, whose resolutions asserted that the current Middle East violence was a "hatched plot" by Palestinians.
        Council members Bill Perkins and Margarita Lopez of the lower East Side and Ronnie Eldridge of the upper West Side refused to vote on the measures and walked out in protest.
        "These resolutions inflame the situation and contribute in no way to the peace process," Lopez said.
        Perkins said the Council should instead seek to play a "leadership role," citing as a good example the City Hall meeting between Arab and Jewish leaders Mayor Giuliani recently held.
        Eldridge called Dear's resolutions an "effort to self-promote."
        Dear, however, said he was disappointed by the walkouts, adding, "Shame on these people who can't stand by the Jewish community and the state of Israel" when they are under attack.
        Muslims plan to gather at E. 42nd St. and Second Ave. today at 11 a.m. for a protest march to the Israeli Consulate on E. 47th St., and then to the United Nations headquarters.

        The fact that a municipal government (albeit, the City Council of New York) would choose to focus on an international issue - a bit outside its jurisdiction - is noteworthy. But as this example shows, Dear was the catalyst for leading the fingerpointing against the Palestinians for the frayed peace deal; imagine how he'd be, then, as a member of Congress, where foreign policy would certainly be within his jurisdiction?

        Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

        by Randian on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:34:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  For Weiner's current district.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...you can do better.  Though it is a more conservative (even if not necessarily Republlican) district than it is given credit for.

      However given some of the Orthodox politicos in the area you can certainly do a lot worse.  Dov Hikind.  Need I say more?

      If we ever ended up with a court drawn map that made a McCain leaning South Brooklyn district Noach would actually be the guy you'd want.

      But that is a remote possibility.  I don't see anyone currently being mentioned who has the gravitas that they'd be saved over any of the more experienced incumbents.   Maybe one of the Weprin brothers might have a chance at something besides Gregory Meeks or Gary Ackerman road kill.

      As far as running a homophobic campaign the worst in NYC history would have to be Mario Cuomo's "Vote for Cuomo, not the Homo" campaign against Ed Koch which was rumored to have been orchestrated by Andrew Cuomo.

      •  Where did you hear that about Andrew Cuomo? (0+ / 0-)
        •  It's something Andrew denies.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andyroo312, MichaelNY

          http://gothamist.com/...

          ...and Ed Koch for the record takes his word on it.  Mario also denies he or his Mayoral campaign ever had anything to do with the smear campaign.

          Though of course it did happen.  It was widespread.  And ugly or not people play hard ball in New York and it is unlikely the fingerprints of the Cuomo campaign wasn't on it.  And certainly the campaign was ugly and contentious with Cuomo battling against Koch three different times.  First iin the Democratic primary, then the Democratic Party runoff, and then again in the general election with Cuomo waging a strong campaign on the Liberal Party ticket.

    •  Would Dear.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      run as a Democrat or a Republican?

      Isn't Dov Hikind in this district (or is he the Brooklyn portion of Grimm's)? And Carl Kruger? Two odious Democrats right there who better not get anywhere near this one (of course, I know they won't, especially considering Kruger's probably headed to jail).

      OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:07:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If past history is any indication. Both! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He is infamous for continuing his race against Weiner after losing the Democratic primary on the Republican ticket after being cross-endorsed.

        City Council special elections are non-partisan free for alls.  But congressional election candidates are chosen by the local parties.  If I remember correctly you need the endorsements of the county party organizations which together hold more than 50% of the population of the constituency.  Which means the Queens Democratic Party and the Queens Republican Party would be choosing the nominees.

        Noach Dear would be a horrible choice for both sides.  For the Republicans since Noach is if nothing else a realist and could very well end up caucusing with and running for re-election as a Democrat since doing otherwise would be suicidal for his continued stay in the House.    Why not just run someone like Ulrich instead.  Even if he loses you'd still be auditioning him for higher office. And why would the Queens Democratic Party choose someone who lives in Brooklyn and may not necessarily be a team player?

        As for Dov Hikind he has fallen so far off the Democratic reservation with all his cross endorsement of Republicans (including Michael Grimm) that when eventually a Republican topples him it will be less tragic than comically ironic.  Dov Hikind being from Boro Park would be in Nadler's district I believe.

        However 12 years ago Dov considered running for Weiner's (then Schumer's) seat as a Republican... whille staying a Democratic Party "Boss."

        http://www.thejewishweek.com/...

        The district was a bit different then.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

  •  OT: Political book recommendation (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IndianaProgressive, walja, tietack

    I'm gathering up library books, and I must recommend that anyone interested in American politics read "Tom Watson: Agrarian Rebel" by C. Vann Woodward, which is a biography of Georgia Populist Tom Watson, whose career was a bizarre blend of race-blind economic populism, then horrifying racial (and anti-Semitic and anti-Catholic) demagoguery, then (oddly) civil-libertarian anti-imperialism.  It's beautifully written, too.

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:34:36 AM PDT

    •  Anything by ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      ... C Vann Woodward is really good!  He really was the dean of southern historians -- his "Origins of the New South" and "The Strange Career of Jim Crow" are must reads for anyone who seriously wantes to understand the south.

      •  Read 'em both (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, tietack, MichaelNY

        Also, V.O. Key...I loved the parts of "The Strange Career of Jim Crow" about the weirdly integrated South in between the abolition of slavery and the institution of segregation, and how it makes the point that "slavery and segregation are opposites".

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:52:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's actually my favorite period of Southern (5+ / 0-)

          history -- that strange post-bellum interregnum between reconstruction and Jim Crow.  There were black candidates elected to Congress from North Carolina with the support of white voters, and were it not for massive voter fraud, once or twice Alabama would have elected one of the most progressive governors in American history (I think his name was Reuben something -- can't remember).

          This era gets to the biggest lie ever told about Southern history -- that poor whites were bigots, and rich whites were the tolerant onces.  White supremacy was concocted by the elites out of fear that poor whites and poor blacks would politically join together.  We're still seeing the manifestations of that today!

          •  Well, I largely agree (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            But I think it's a bit more nuanced than that.  My impression from those books is that economically progressive whites were perfectly willing to use segregation and disenfranchisement as tools to perpetuate their own power, if they happened to have power.  They could accuse black voters of being pawns of economic interests and large planters.  (Which, iirc, is exactly what Tom Watson did, when supporting Hoke Smith's disenfranchisement measures--Smith being an economic conservative-turned-progressiveish.)

            Smith allied himself with Bryan's Vice Presidential candidate, Populist Tom Watson, one of Georgia's most influential politicians. With Watson's support, Smith was elected governor in 1907. In order to gain Watson's support, however, he had to call the Negro vote "ignorant [and] purchaseable." Smith established several Jim Crow laws requiring literacy tests and property ownership for voting. Smith also supported railroad reform and election reform.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

            And a lot of those horrible segregationist Senators were ardent New Dealers.  That's why DW-Nominate, for example, puts Pat Harrison ahead of Robert Wagner on the main dimension which corresponds to economic voting (and why there had to be a second dimension to the model, to correspond to racial/regional voting):

            http://voteview.org/....

            But yes, that middle period is fascinating.  I had no idea that school desegregation had a majority of Congressman and Senators during Reconstruction (albeit this was a Congress without real representation of the South) only to be filibustered.

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:21:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  (Ok, that was pre-New Deal) (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack, MichaelNY

              Should have used this one, which illustrates the point better anyway:
              http://voteview.org/...

              Actually, I don't know if it illustrates my point, but it's just a fascinating ranking.  Foreign policy issues must have been flying around to have Hiram Johnson and Styles Bridges so close on the "right-wing" side, even though it was pre-WWII.

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:36:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  It is nuanced and complicated (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

              It took me a long time to really fully understand how the Southern progressivism of the 1890s-1920s and white supremacy went hand in hand.

              One of the most interesting and problematic people of the era was Charles Aycock -- the "redeemer Democrat" governor of North Carolina, who was one of the greatest education advocates and reformers in really even American history.  He also won the governors race by running an explicitly racist, Klan-backed campaign.  In talking about how to appeal to the heavily black eastern costal plain, and the white mountain west of the state, he literally said his campaign strategy was to yell "Schools, schools, schools in the west, and nigger, nigger, nigger in the east."

              •  Indeed (3+ / 0-)

                It'd be nice if there were more historical figures that we could look to with unreserved admiration, but alas.  One person I admire (and I'm running out of books here) is Helen Mankin, who was a liberal Congresswoman from Atlanta before getting screwed by the bastards running Georgia politics.  Sorry for the long block quote, it's just such a great and unknown-to-me-before-I-clicked-this-link story:

                The only woman in the crowded contest for the three-county district, which included both Atlanta and Decatur, Mankin used a series of radio addresses to talk about the central issue of her campaign: the equalization of freight rates, which varied greatly from section to section of the country and which she believed inhibited southern industry and agriculture. She also used these opportunities to criticize her leading opponent, Thomas Camp, the handpicked successor of Ramspeck, warning voters that Camp was a “railroad employee” and therefore a part of the conspiracy to keep the people of Georgia trapped in poverty. Pledging to support price controls, federal housing programs, and federal aid to education, Mankin won the backing of Governor Arnall, women’s groups, and the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO).  Her determination to pursue voting reforms, seen in her support for a constitutional amendment to abolish the poll tax, earned her the solid backing of African Americans.  This bloc of voters was barred from primaries, but not from special elections, and black voters helped Mankin prevail on February 12, 1946. Trailing Camp until the reporting of the final precinct tallies from the predominantly black Ashby Street, Mankin ended up winning the election by nearly 800 votes. Of the 1,039 registered voters in the African-American neighborhood, 963 cast their vote for Mankin.  The African-American Atlanta Daily World newspaper noted that the election marked the first time in Atlanta history that blacks served as precinct managers and clerks in a congressional contest.

                Mankin’s election sent shock waves through segregationist Georgia. Her coalition of minority voters and white liberals caused great unease in the state. When Eugene Talmadge came out of political retirement that fall to run for re-election as governor of Georgia, he inveighed against “the spectacle of Atlanta Negroes sending a Congresswoman to Washington.  During his campaign, he mocked Mankin, nicknaming her the “Belle of Ashby Street.” Rather than retaliating, the Congresswoman adopted the title as a point of pride, as if she had invented the name herself.

                During her short term on the Hill, Mankin championed reform in Georgia politics and looked to give African Americans a greater voice in their government. She served on four committees—Civil Service, Claims, Elections, and Revision of Laws—but was not appointed to her first choice, the House Education Committee. Mankin exhibited loyalty to the Democratic Party, voting with the party 92 percent of the time—an uncharacteristic trait for the typically conservative South of the period. As a Representative, she supported price controls, a federal housing program, and the Hobbs Bill directed against the CIO’s Teamsters’ Union. Mankin voted against the Case Anti-Labor Bill, opposed funding for the House Committee on Un-American Activities, and favored an end to the poll tax. “I am a liberal but not a radical,” Mankin said, when opposing plans for national health insurance.  She also backed an internationalist foreign policy in which the United States played a greater role in maintaining world stability after World War II.

                In the Georgia Democratic primary of July 1946, which the Supreme Court opened to African Americans for the first time, Mankin outpolled her opponent, James C. Davis, by more than 11,000 votes.But to offset the African-American vote, state officials, unhappy with Mankin’s liberal voting record, revived Georgia’s county unit system, which had been out of use in the district since 1932. Designed to favor rural precincts and to mitigate the urban vote by awarding the winner of the popular vote in each county a designated amount of unit votes, it was employed—as a former Georgia Representative observed—“to beat Mrs. Mankin, nothing else.” The strategy also gave Talmadge, a leading spokesman of white supremacy in the South, a large lead over Governor Ellis Arnall’s endorsed candidate, James Carmichael, in the gubernatorial primary—despite the fact that more than 100,000 African Americans went to the polls.12 Mankin received six unit votes for carrying Fulton County (encompassing much of Atlanta’s suburbs), while Davis received eight for carrying two less-populous counties.

                I read the biography they cite--"The Belle of Ashby Street".  It's slim and a great read.  She had an amazing life, including doing a widely-publicized cross-country tour with her sister by car (when this was somewhat adventurous given the state of roads and automobiles at the time) and driving ambulances during and after WWI in France.  
                http://womenincongress.house.gov/...

                25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:55:25 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  VO Key (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        Southern Politics in Nation and State by the late Political Scientist VO Key is the complement to Woodward's historical books on the South.

        It was Key who introduced the notion of a distinct black belt in the South and these areas later proved to be the most strident in defending Jim Crow & segregated schools in the 1950s and 1960s.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:55:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Quinnipiac (7+ / 0-)

    Obama leads Romney 47-41, double digits on everyone else. RV too.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    •  Good news (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

      If the economy rebounds even slightly (read: if the Republicans don't destroy the economy again), that's going to put the president in a very strong position for reelection.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:07:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Looks like the undecideds are white Independents (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Could surely break either way. Romney's looking like the only formidable opponent, though.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:47:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pawlenty would be formidable (3+ / 0-)

        Fundamental qualities of candidates are what are important at this stage in evaluating November electability.

        And Romney and Pawlenty both have the right fundamentals to give Obama a tough fight.

        One smart thing I read regarding the Obama campaign's perspective is that they are clear-eyed enough to assume that whoever becomes the presumed nominee will gain the needed stature for the general through the primaries and will have great fundraising ability once establishing himself as the presumed nominee.  So they're just assuming whoever it is will look damn strong enough a year from now.  Of course, they're also assuming it will be Romney or Pawlenty, and I imagine their evaluation would change if it's one of the crazies as none of them has the fundamental qualities to be taken seriously by at least half the voters come November 2012.

        This is why this whole thing is so fascinating.  Really, either Romney or Pawlenty is the sane choice for all Republicans.  But they are partisans and by definition don't have completely clear heads about this, they condition themselves to believe Obama is vulnerable to defeat against many more of their wannabes than just Mitt and Tim.  Will they pull a Delaware yet again, or instead go with a sane choice?  Pulling a Delaware has to be extremely tempting, they just don't like Romney, and for whatever reason Pawlenty isn't catching fire.  But Pawlenty still has plenty of time, he can go through much of the fall languishing and still end up winning Iowa and giving himself momentum.  The only real question with him this year is fundraising, and those 2Q reports will tell us a lot about everyone.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:52:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •   VT legs redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, HoosierD42

    Shay Totten, the VT equivalent of Jon Ralston, takes a look at how Vermont is redistricting the state legislature.  they seem to be trying to deny Chittenden County (Burlington) a seventh senate seat (bastards!) and republicans want to change many two member seats into one member seats.  also, Progressives (capital P) have a seat at the table.

    http://www.7dvt.com/...

  •  We need a tag for them... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    "Looks like the GOP is going all-in on its plan to run fake candidates in Democratic primaries to delay the recall elections."

    Something like: phonycrat
                       or demoplant
    ??

  •  WA-Gov might be an interesting race (0+ / 0-)

    Washington is mostly a blue state. It's very Democratic in the urban areas (mostly west of the Cascade mountains) and mostly Republican in the rural areas (east of the Cascades).

    The swing voters tend to vote for people who are Democrats (2 U.S. Senators, Governor, etc.) but will sometimes vote for Libertarian ideas in ballot issues (lower taxes, less government, etc.).

    The WA Republicans have had big fights between the libertarian wing (government should leave us alone) and the Christian fundy wing (government should ban gay marriage, abortion, science (evolution) and so on). In 1988 the Christians took over the Republican caucuses and sent a Pat Robertson delegation to the Republican National Convention.

    If Christine Gregoire decides not to seek re-election, there might be a contest for the Dem nomination. And the Republicans, including McKenna (and Dave Reichert maybe?), will certainly have several people vying. And then you throw in the truly insane top-two primary and things could be very interesting. It's possible that in the general election voters might have to choose between two Democrats.

    "One man's Mede is another man's Persian." - George S. Kaufman

    by Dbug on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:46:45 AM PDT

  •  FL-Sen: 12 U.S. Senators endorse LeMieux (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    They are: Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Saxby Chambliss, Susan Collins, Mike Crapo, Chuck Grassley, Johnny Isakson, Mike Johanns, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, Jim Risch and Pat Roberts.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:47:47 AM PDT

  •  CNN poll: Obama at 48/48 approval (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG, MichaelNY

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:51:23 AM PDT

    •  Can anyone else recall... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, askew, MichaelNY

      A president whose approvals stayed as stable for as long as President Obama's have since his "honeymoon" ended in spring 2009? I don't think his national polling average has moved outside of a band between 44 and 51 percent, if that extreme on either end.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:57:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nate had a great post on this (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, askew, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

        Basically, people really, really like the guy personally. That is holding him up despite everything.

        •  like vs vote (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They may like the guy.  

          But are they willing to outright vote for him again?

          •  Half the battle (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY
            •  Exactly. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, MichaelNY

              There was a great Jon Chait post from a couple of months ago when Obama announced his reelection and said it looked like of the big themes, if not the biggest theme, Obama was running on was character. As we saw in the video with the man from North Carolina who says that while he doesn't always agree with Obama, he respects him and is confident in him, the idea is to give people that might have fairly significant differences about some policies (the health care mandate, for instance) the cover to vote for him. And given how the Republicans plan to up the crazy, contemptible behavior to unprecedented levels, the contrast will be great.

              It's not the worst idea for a strategy ever.

          •  Lots of people who don't like him will vote (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            for him.

            Obama faces an easy reelection bcause he is likable and his opponents are not, but beyond that he's not in trouble because people who don't like any of the candidates don't favor the Republicans over him.

            http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

            by tommypaine on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:42:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The fact that his opponents aren't likable... (8+ / 0-)

              Is a great point.

              You know, I've heard people say Romney seems like a strong leader and a smart executive; I've heard people say Palin is tough and that she fights for her convictions; I've heard people say that Pawlenty knows how to talk to the various factions of the conservative movement; and all of that may be true (or it may not be, in my judgment, but YMMV), but I have never heard anyone I know, whether somebody I talk to online or somebody I know in person, describe one of the Republicans running as "likable".

              Huckabee was the "likable" one, for all his vile policy positions and egregious past statements and actions. He stood out because he was the likable candidate. That's why he polled closest to President Obama. But now he's out, and we're left with the cold competence of Romney; the aggressive posturing of Palin, Cain, and Rep. Bachmann; the mechanical glad-handing of Pawlenty; the sharp-elbowed swagger of Giuliani; and the prickly stubbornness of Rep. Paul. Huntsman is "likable", but he's also basically a pro-life Democrat who has been pretending to be a Republican for the past decade because he wanted to win election in Utah; he's got less than no chance of winning, no matter what Mark Halperin thinks.

              Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:40:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Excellent descriptions of the GOP field! (n/t) (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

                by The Caped Composer on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:24:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think what this means is (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, Christopher Walker

                Romney will have this whole election in the bag as soon as one of his handlers manages to find that old CD-R they had the "Friendly, Affable Mitt" program burned to.

                More seriously, I like to insult Mitch Daniels, but I think he could have tapped into the same "likable" vein that Huckabee did, even if they are vastly different in style and agenda. Daniels, for all his stiffness, was pretty good at integrating that into his gubernatorial campaigns, what with the RV trips, his motorcycle thing, and so on. At any rate, I think he could certainly have come off as being more genuine than Romney or Pawlenty.  

                Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

                by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:56:43 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I agree regarding Gov. Daniels (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Christopher Walker

                  I was happy for that reason when he announced he wouldn't run, though I saw a much murkier path to the nomination for him than I saw for Huckabee.

                  Romney really does seem like he's just working through a bunch of subroutines, doesn't he? There's just no genuine passion there. I can't stand Palin, Pawlenty, Cain, Santorum, or Rep. Bachmann, but at least they seem like they're sincerely (albeit misguidedly) incensed about the direction America is going and while they're willing to betray plenty of core principles for a shot at getting ahead, they want to be president for ideological reasons rather than because their calculations indicate that is the most prestigious position that a person can ascend to. I have no idea what Romney actually believes, and I get the sense he would do or say anything that he calculated would further his goals of becoming our first android president.

                  Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 12:05:03 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think that's Romney's biggest flaw (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                    Most people I talk to about politics are nowhere near as politically engaged as I am, but none of them like Romney. He's "not trustworthy", or "weird", or "boring". They're at least willing to give Pawlenty a chance for now (although I think he may develop the same problem, he's still not as plastic as Romney) but most of these folks definitely preferred Huckabee.

                    Personally, looking at the Republican field, I think Bachmann, Santorum, Cain, and Paul have actual commitments to their ideologies. Gingrich is too wrapped up in being Newt Gingrich to have an ideology, whatever media hacks that talk up his 'intellectualism' like to claim. Pawlenty is some guy that decided it'd be cool to be President, but, as I suggested before, I think he's got something of a Romney Problem.

                    I've never really been able to figure out what Palin actually believes. Ideologically, she's certainly conservative, but her ignorance and inability to adequately communicate complex ideas make it difficult for me to understand her, and her erratic nature doesn't seem to suggest being wedded to an idea or ideas like, say, Paul or Santorum are.

                    Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

                    by Bob R Bobson on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 09:25:47 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  good take on Romney (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Similarly, I never did really figure out why George W wanted to be President, other than as a personal achievement in a competitive family.

                    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                    by Christopher Walker on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 10:40:19 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  The Obama campaign doesn't agree (3+ / 0-)

              See my comment above, the Obama people assume that the GOP primaries in the winter and spring will produce a presumed nominee who will gain Presidential stature because of that process, and will have all the money he needs.  And they are assuming that, as a result, the election will be a pitch-forked battle.

              The caveat is that Team Obama also are assuming it will be Romney or Pawlenty, the sane ones.

              I have to think their thinking changes if one of the crazies slips into it, like Bachmann or someone else.  But they don't seem willing to entertain that possibility.  Of course, they don't have to.  Their job is to prepare for the toughest challenger possible, anything else is political malpractice.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:57:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And Howard Dean is afraid of Palin (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                It's misinformation.  Pure baloney.

                I expect the Republican candidate will be "presidential" and will be serious because I expect the nominee to be Romney.

                But Romney will not become any more likeable, and Obama will have the edge of being better liked, and less disliked, by the key voters (and the evangelicals will still run a third party candidate).  

                And that is even another point, I don't like cauliflower and I don't like war.  The difference in scale though is enormous.  While the wingnuts despise Obama, the average joe independents who don't "approve" him still don't despise him.  On the negative side, they don't despise Romney either.  They do completely disrespect Palin and other circus geeks.  So, if a winger somehow gets the nomination, Obamas lukewarm dislike with moderates will easily trump Palin's intense dislike with moderates.

                Again though, the race is Obama versus Romney.  Snore.  All these polls really are much ado about not much.  Obama beats Romney similarly to how he beat Mccain (unless there is a very strong Christian third party candidate).

                http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

                by tommypaine on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:36:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The idea that you can know for certain (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  who the the presidential nominee for the non-incumbent party will be over half a year from the first primaries is patently insane. "Romney is the frontrunner" or "Romney is the most likely nominee" would be reasonable statements. "The nominee will be Romney" is not.

                  •  This point 4 years ago we "knew" it would be... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    ...Hillary vs. Romney in November '08.

                    That was a lock!

                    Or at least more of a lock that tommypaine's GOP nominee prediction now.

                    Meanwhile, no "misinformation," the stuff I found is buried in a few different campaign stories that the media hasn't much picked up on, or at least hasn't reproted.  If it was a misinformation campaign, it failed miserably.  But it wasn't.  It's what the Obama campaign thinks, that they expect a tight battle.  They realize they could be wrong, that things could get better for Obama to the point where he's unbeatable, and/or the GOP will nominate a crazy, but they can't safely plan for that.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 03:21:58 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  actually (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                      I'm pretty sure Giuliani was the GOP frontrunner back then.

                      21, male, Kyoto-01 (residence) RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 05:09:01 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I'm not sure, Romney was rising (0+ / 0-)

                        There came a point during the late spring or in the summer, I don't have the exact timing memorized, when Romney had become the runaway frontrunner in both Iowa and NH.  That's when the CW became, justifiably at the time, that Romney was the frontrunner for the nomination.  He was never a clear frontrunner in national polling, but that doesn't matter if you're clearly on top in both Iowa and NH.

                        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 06:18:38 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  uh, we all remember differently I guess (0+ / 0-)

                        My notes from early in the cycle said that the GOP nomination was George Allen's to lose, as long as Condi Rice stayed on the sidelines.

                        Remember, there were Virginia Republicans who were grumbling about Allen occluding the Senatorial race when it was so clear he was actually aiming at the Presidency.

                        The point is, it's early to be making predictions with any level of confidence.

                        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                        by Christopher Walker on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 08:11:23 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  You're overconfident (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              andyroo312

              It's way premature to say that he faces an easy reelection. Remember the "Smurfs" in 1992? I feel impelled to say, again: If the economy goes into the toilet, all bets are off!

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:40:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  That seems to be the consensus (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, askew, DCCyclone

      I would still expect him to win with that kind of approval going into election day, even against Romney.

  •  Minnesota (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, jj32, TofG, askew, DCCyclone

    Obama 51-44 approve, leads Pawlenty 51-43 and Bachmann 56-36. Romney trails 51-36.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  CT-sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    just got an e-mail from the Bysiewiszc campaign (or as i call her, The Not So Mighty-B).  they have a new manager and are bragging about a "lean new campaign."  Sounds like she's having problems.

  •  Clue for POTUS: It's Not Just About the Auto (0+ / 0-)

    industry; 400 more jobs gone from Cleveland:

    http://www.newsnet5.com/...

    "I don't feel the change yet". Velma Hart

    by Superpole on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:33:03 AM PDT

  •  MN-Pres: Obama at 51/44 approval, up 15 over Mitt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, DCCyclone

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

    Do note, however, that 14 percent of Republicans remain undecided, as opposed to 4 percent of Democrats. If Romney shores them up, we're probably looking at McCain #s.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:06:13 PM PDT

  •  Poll split (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew

    Ipsos/Reuters chime in with Obama job approval at 50% and leading Romney 51-38.

    http://www.reuters.com/...

  •  In more Weiner news (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY
    Rep. Allyson Schwartz, a leading official at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called for the New York Democrat to resign on Wednesday after a picture of a man’s genitals — purportedly a Weiner self-portrait — began circulating on the Internet. Contacted by POLITICO, a Weiner spokesman neither confirmed nor denied that the picture was of Weiner.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Sen. Pryor and Rep. Michaud also call for his resignation.

    •  Good... I hope he just goes ahead and does it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, askew, itskevin

      instead of letting it linger in the media all damn week.  The media really wants an excuse to not have to talk about Ryan's Medicare abolishing plan or Pete "how can you be so brazenly stupid" Session's proposal to privatize social security.

      I hope he resigns by Friday, Republicans do some stupid crap Monday and we're back to talking about Medicare next week.

      The last thing we want is to have a drawn out ethics investigation that dominates every news cycle.

    •  Oh, with all due respect, fuck you Allyson (0+ / 0-)

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:52:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should have been said privately (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If that's how she felt, I don't think it was necessary to go blabbing to the media about it. It just gives the media another angle to extend the story's shelf life.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 02:57:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And if Weiner would resign (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        That would end the story's shelflife.

        •  That's not really the point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Yes, he could do that, but he's opted not to. I think any calls for him to do that should be kept private, the media doesn't need new angles.

          25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 03:39:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This is so, so stupid. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Goobergunch

            (Not what you said)

            Late Wednesday afternoon Indiana Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly, who is running for Senate, called on Weiner to step down from Congress and said he’s donating $5,000 in campaign contributions he received from Weiner to Indiana charities.
            "Enough is enough. It's time for Congressman Weiner to resign. His actions have disgraced the Congress. Everyone should be focused on jobs and the economy and his refusal to do the right thing is a distraction,” Donnelly said in a statement.

            A senior conservative Democrat, Rep. Mike Ross, Arkansas, told the AP at an event in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, that Weiner should have resigned when he confessed that he sent inappropriate photos. Ross also said “appropriate authorities” should investigate. Ross’ office confirmed the Congressman’s comments to CNN.
            Massachusetts Rep. Niki Tsongas’ Chief of Staff Katie Elbert Enos, released a statement, saying, “The Congresswoman thinks it would be appropriate for Congressman Weiner to step down.”
            And Christopher Schuler, spokesman for North Carolina Democrat Larry Kissell told CNN, "Congressman Kissell believes that Representative Weiner should resign."
            The Democratic lawmaker familiar with the behind the scenes talks also said to expect more public calls Thursday but warned that this story is “changing by the hour.”
            Asked about the new public calls for Weiner to resign Wednesday, a senior Democratic source said, “It’s a signal that represents a growing concern in the caucus.”

            Yeah, think of all the jobs that Joe Donnelly could have created, if he wasn't so distracted by Anthony Weiner's dick.  And I know I woke up this morning thinking "What do Mike Ross, Larry Kissell, and Nikki Tsongas think about all this?"  What do they have to do with Anthony Weiner?  I know--there's a pretty good chance none of them will be in Congress in 2013.  

            (This is when I wish politicians would just ignore the consultants telling them to connect everything to "jobs", at least for my sanity.)  

            What possible political cost is there if everyone just goes about their day without commenting on this?  Does anyone really think this will matter in 17 months?

            (Quotes from Paleo's link.)

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:02:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ha ha ha (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I understand the reasoning behind the "Weiner needs to resign" talk coming from these folks, even if I don't think it's very smart. I think you're right on target; this isn't going to matter on Election Day 2012.

              But what is Donnelly playing at? Donating campaign contributions to charity is what you do when you find out one of your contributors is a investment scammer, or that they got rich selling arsenic-laced candy to children, or that they're actually a renegade sub-Saharan warlord.

              Donnelly, apparently, doesn't want the money because the guy who donated it uses the Internet in much the same fashion as a self-absorbed horny teenager. That's a new one, isn't it?

              I've got to rustle up a few dollars to donate to Donnelly's campaign so that I can see if they'll get rid of them after it comes to light that I used to troll groups in World of Warcraft "for the lulz".

              Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

              by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:48:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It's probably good politics, (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem, askew, MichaelNY

            on a personal level, for some Dems in conservative states/districts to make a big stink about Weiner, call for his resignation, etc. I read a headline that Donnelly did that today, as did Pryor. That's smart IMHO.

      •  Disagree, & I'm glad this is happening (4+ / 0-)

        Weiner is now a liablity to the party, with zero ability to do anything effectively going forward, and for that reason I want him out.

        And pressuring him publicly is more effective than telling him in private.

        Weiner has an ego the size of NYC, private convos won't do the trick.  It takes a sustained effort, and Schwarz is smart.

        Yes the Republicans are hypocrites, yes Preibus was baldly an asshole in talking about this on MSNBC yesterday while refusing to discuss Ensign when asked, but none of that matters.

        All that matters is that he's now forever a distraction every time he opens his mouth, making his party look bad by his example and by crowding out our message.

        There's more to life than being in elected office.  He's 46, he's got a beautiful wife who early reports say isn't inclined to leave him over this, he's going to be a dad soon, he can write his ticket financially.  That right there adds up to a much better life than a few hundred million of his fellow Americans.  So he can do his party one last good deed by resigning.  Who knows, maybe after some time out he can recover and return to elected office someday?

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:13:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rep. Michaud said something? (4+ / 0-)

      That's amazing! Somebody ask him about a Senate run before he quiets down for the next six months!

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:43:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Palin ahead of Romney in Reuters poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew
    Palin, the party's vice presidential nominee in 2008, had the support of 22 percent of the Republicans surveyed. The former governor of Alaska has not said whether she will run for president next year.

    Romney, who failed in a 2008 presidential bid, had 20 percent support.

    Poll also shows 50% Obama approval, and healthy O leads over all Rs in head-to-heads.

    http://www.reuters.com/...

  •  Hot damn (6+ / 0-)

    look at Deval Patrick. How did he do this??

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

    Amazing. Kudos to him

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:21:43 PM PDT

  •  Bill Kristol says Rudy Giuliani's running (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:49:55 PM PDT

  •  I'm sure this has been discussed, but do (0+ / 0-)

    Dems have a good bench in Weiner's district? Despite his issues, I think seat is Dem enough that we could hold it if he resigns, provided the candidate is good.

  •  If Weiner resigns, seat could go Republican (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It's only +5 Democrat.  

    •  Last year perhaps (5+ / 0-)

      Not now. Anyway, Republicans don't win special elections in NY.

    •  Who would be interested? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Although I'm not sure that they're actually within the district boundaries, Senator Carl Kruger and Assembleyman Dov Hikind are the only two area Democrats that immediately come to mind(both despicable human beings). I'm sure we have a big enough bench to field someone formidable but my immediate knowledge of who is available is quite scary..

      OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:11:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The seat's presidential numbers (6+ / 0-)

      don't reflect its partisan leanings downballot. There are a lot of Jewish voters in the district who vote Republican for President (since 9/11) but vote for Democrats otherwise. Aside from Martin Golden, whose Senate district slightly overlaps with the southwestern corner of NY-09, there isn't a single Republican in the state legislature that represents any part of the district.

      •  Do Dems have a strong bench? (0+ / 0-)

        At least a state senator/rep who would be a good candidate.

      •  You can say the opposite. (0+ / 0-)

        Queens elected three Republicans to the city council two years ago.  So there are also Obama voters who will vote for Republicans down ballot.

        2010 also showed a lot of ultra-orthodox voters turning against Democrats down ballot.  Jerry Nadler for instance lost Boro Park for the first time.  McMahon won orthodox areas of Brooklyn but won them narrowly.  As an incumbent with a large portion of the religious establishment behind him.

        2010 also showed unexpectedly close races for Dov Hikind and Steven Cymbrowitz.  And I do worry about what happens with Carl Kruger senate seat once he is justly hauled off to prison.

        Of course there is the counterpoint of Tony Avella absolutely awsome slaying of Queens Republican Dinosaur Frank Padavan.  One of the few bright spots of 2010.

        You are correct that there are a lot of conservative voters who are on the Democratic reservations and part of the Democratic political machine.  And have and possibly will vote for the Democrat despite what should be their ideological preference.  But special elections and open seats are their own beasts that can throw those assumptions into question.

  •  CBS/NY Times poll (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, jj32, LordMike, DCCyclone, askew

    Obama approval/disaproval 48/43.

  •  Is Obama Definitely Contesting Georgia? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY

    This article from Roll Call is a little more ambivalent about it than I am. From the looks of it, it seems like he's going to contest it, if only to try to bleed the Republicans dry. After all, as the article notes, it costs $600,000 per week to be on television in metro Atlanta. While the literal cost is the same for both sides, the opportunity cost is quite different, as this is money the Republicans will need to try to flip Pennsylvania or Colorado. Plus, as Bob Barr so candidly says, Romney is not going to excite Republicans in the state. In a close race, that could be a huge factor.

    As I have said many times, I'd like them to, at minimum, start out with all states he lost by less than ten last time, plus Texas. But if nothing else, I expect them to compete in all states they flipped last time, plus Missouri, where they came close, and Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.

    •  AZ > MO > GA > TX (0+ / 0-)

      That's how I would prioritize them if I were the Dems.

      AZ could be this cycle's Indiana as the Dems have decent poll numbers there even though they haven't made a serious effort there in a long time. It has a potentially competitive Senate race (Goddard was tied with Flake in the last poll) and as many as 6 competitive House races: (1) Kirkpatrick is going for a rematch after losing to Gosar by just 6 in 2010, (3) Quayle is a very weak incumbent and his district may be weakened, (5) Schweikert's district is marginal and may remain that way, (7) Grijalva could put his foot in his mouth again, (8) Giffords may retire or try to move up to the Senate, (9) the new district may be competitive.

      MO is trending red but may still be winnable. It has a tossup Senate race but only one potentially competitive House race, in the St. Louis county district that favors Republicans.

      GA isn't far to the right of MO or AZ overall, but it has many fewer swing voters as the white population is more monolithically Republican than in either of those states. A Dem can get to 45% there without too much trouble but it's very hard to get to 50%. It might not have any competitive House races depending on how badly John Barrow gets screwed in redistricting. Sanford Bishop should cruise with Obama at the top of the ballot in any case.

      TX is still deep red and might not have any competitive House races. I think any national Dem effort there should be aimed at building the organization from the ground up with the goal of being competitive toward the end of the decade as opposed to winning 2012 races.    

      SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:31:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  MT > GA > MO > AZ > TX (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, askew

        Tilt R, Lean R, Lean R, Likely R, Likely R.

        For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

        by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:42:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  i agree with MT (3+ / 0-)

          and add in ND and POSSIBLY SD and AK as they're cheap markets.  if nothing else, force the nominee to spend a few hours in North Dakota.  

          •  ND, and SD? (0+ / 0-)

            That seems like an incredible stretch. If IN seems like it's slipping away from Obama I don't see those being pulled any closer. Obama would win IN again before ND and SD.

            DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

            by aggou on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 07:56:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Nah, they're good targets (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer, bumiputera

              President Obama didn't spend in those states in 2008 and came within single digits. Against a Midwestern nominee like Pawlenty, they're probably going to be more trouble than it's worth, but against a technocrat like Romney or a Southern conservative like Cain or Gov. Perry, they can probably be put into play with minimal expense.

              Something that's worth noting is that the Dakotas (and Alaska as well) aren't really hostile to government in the same way that many traditionally red states are. North Dakota and Alaska are probably the most socialist states in the country (Vermont is giving them a run for its money under the Shumlin administration, though), seeing as that the former has a central bank and a proud history of cooperatives and the latter divides its oil revenue amongst its residents instead of allowing all the profits to proceed to the energy companies. There's just not really a strong Democratic presence in those states.

              Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 08:07:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, he did spend in both Dakotas, even (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                if he didn't focus on them nearly as much as other states. I'm not sure how many boots were on the ground, but between the two states, his campaign spent about $1.1 million. Given how small and cheap they are to campaign in, that's probably anything to sneeze at. Given that North Dakota has both a senate race and a House race and South Dakota has a House race, I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign fought for the states even if they were more expensive. The fact that they are so damn cheap makes it quite likely.

                •  Thanks for the info (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I definitely agree the downballot stuff in North Dakota makes it likelier the Obama campaign will invest there. South Dakota also gets a lot of overlap from surrounding media markets, which may be an influence there.

                  Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:34:05 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  No way is AZ likely R this year (0+ / 0-)

          I bet it's far more likely to go dem than Georgia.

      •  Missouri (0+ / 0-)

        I've heard people claim that the state is trending red, but I don't see it. To me at least, it seems like it's a center-right state--more so than Ohio, but less so than Indiana--as it has been for some time. It's hard for the Democrats to win there, but it's not impossible, and it's never been any different for the last few cycles.

        I more or less agree with you, but I think the Ryan Plan makes it hard to say for certain what seats will be up for grabs, besides the obvious ones. I'm not sure how the map will change in Georgia, but unless a district has a new PVI of +25, we should look into it. Or at the very least, an ambitious Democrat the local level should run for the seat if nobody else will and hammer the Republican candidate on this issue. It could give us an opening in a lot of places.

  •  WI-Recall GAB certifies recalls against Dems (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, LordMike, askew, MichaelNY

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    It is highly likely that this will be appealed.  However, even if they do face election, Holperin should be favored agains Simac and Hansen should be at worst tossup against Nygren.  There are still primaries but I think those will be the two candidates.  Wirch will be favored no matter who makes it out of the primary.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

    by glame on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:43:15 PM PDT

  •  Romney up 10 over Giuliani, Palin third (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    http://www.myfoxhouston.com/...

    Obama up 4 over Giuliani, 7 over Romney, double-digits over the rest.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 04:44:08 PM PDT

    •  To beat Romney, someone has to come (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      a close second in NH. Giuliani may be the only one could do that. Only other one who might be able to do it is Huntsman.

      •  he could be derailed in SC (0+ / 0-)

        especially if the same person also wins iowa.  unless it's palin, santorum, paul or bachman (i think cain could win the nomination, but it would require an epic combination of talent and luck)

        •  True, but I think if someone (0+ / 0-)

          can come close or beat Romney in NH, it probably means they can do well in some of the big delegate states(CA, NY, IL). I think it's harder to do if you win IA and SC, but Romney wins big in NH.

        •  The problem with Cain... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, DCCyclone

          I suspect he'll never, ever have the necessary ground game, organization or money to win in a big, delegate-rich Super Tuesday state. Even if he pulls upsets in Iowa and South Carolina, with Romney winning New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida and Michigan. I imagine Cain would merely win the south.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:48:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, Obama/Giuliani would be a real nailbiter (4+ / 0-)

      Oh, the suspense to find out what turnout in Harlem and the Bronx would be.  I'm guessing 150%.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:19:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would he support union busting? (0+ / 0-)

        If so, I wonder how the firefighters and/or cops, which supposedly weren't too fond of him last time he ran, would react.

        I just hope he'd waste a lot of money trying to flip New Jersey and New York. He wouldn't win them, or even come very close, but he'd hurt his chances in other states in a big way. Not that I think he'd really get close in most parts of the country, of course.

        •  I found this (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico
          As for that fire-in-the-belly whose absence has caused many 2012 Republican contenders to drop out, Mr. Giuliani said he’s interested in running–”I’ve always had the desire! Who wouldn’t have the desire!”–and claimed to see his own mayoral governance strategies brought back to life in the policies of Governors like New Jersey’s Chris Christie, Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, and Ohio’s John Kasich. Does he consider himself a Tea Partier? “Sure! The lead principle of the Tea Party is frustration with big government,” said the man whose zealous police force famously cleaned up Times Square.

          I'm all for more casual Rudy mocking in my journalism.
          http://www.observer.com/...

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:15:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah, here we go (0+ / 0-)
            But instead of talking at length about the Sept. 11 attacks, Giuliani focused heavily on his record as mayor, saying it was essential chief executive training, and on foreign policy.

            He offered praise for executives like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), and said he’d called him earlier in the day after a judge issued a temporary halt to implementing the new Walker-backed law to curb union bargaining rights.

            “I love that we have governors like that now,” he said, mentioning New Jersey’s Chris Christie as well, adding, “Guys that had big…oh this isn’t Brooklyn, I forgot. “


            What a charmer.  Click through for more crap.  
            My view of the tea party is the tea party is one of the best things that’s happened to American democracy in a very, very long time,” he said. “People in the tea party, like me, believe that our freedom is being taken away.”

            Yeah, whatever.  Are you buying this?  You think an actual tea partier is going to buy this?
            http://www.nbcnewyork.com/...

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:21:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I suspect he might actually win New Jersey (0+ / 0-)

          He'd muster closer margins in the populous, northeast D strongholds, plus match Christie's performance in the rest of the state. If any Republican can win NJ in a presidential race, it's Giuliani, not Christie.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 07:34:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What makes you think he'd play at all in NJ? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I could see him getting closer, but I'm not really sure I see him getting that much closer than Bush and Cheney got in 2004. And if you lose by ten instead of 15, you have still lost big.

            •  Giuliani was one of Christie's biggest surrogates (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I think Giuliani's brand of politics (social moderate, fiscal conservative) is ideal for a Republican running in New Jersey. A social conservative, not unlike Bush '43, is all but automatically written off, but Independents and even some conservaDems would probably give Giuliani some serious consideration.

              For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

              by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 11:46:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Giuliani's not moderate at all though (0+ / 0-)

                he could get a few national security-related votes (which would probably end up going red anyway), but he's not a social moderate anymore, and I think voters in New Jersey can tell the difference between 2002 and 2012.

                21, male, Kyoto-01 (residence) RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 02:42:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  How many polls is that just today (6+ / 0-)

      That counter the Romney lead yesterday? Three or four? I've lost count.

      •  Obama by 5-7 over Romney makes sense (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, askew

        FOX: +7
        Quinnipiac: +6
        Reuters: +13
        WaPO: -3

        I think Reuters and WaPo are both outliers. Average thm though, and you got Obama by 5, that fits with the other polls. I think that's where things are now.

        •  I'm guessing that map would look similar... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, askew

          To 2008. I think Romney would possibly flip Indiana (though not definitely) but maybe lose Georgia and perhaps Montana.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 09:14:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Romney's biggest problem (4+ / 0-)

            is that, in anything besides a blowout lose for Obama, he'll need some wind at his back. He doesn't need to be the second coming of Reagan, but he can't be the "Yeah, well, I guess" candidate. If he's that, and if Democrats are sufficiently motivated, he'll lose. He'll lose big in the traditional swing states, but he could also lose, and fairly easily, in states like Indiana, if only because Obama will have lots of resources to drag every last voter out. That is, if it's not a blowout. If it is, Obama could win Indiana by more than he did last time.

            •  Romney will lose Indiana "fairly easily"? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Bob R Bobson, MichaelNY

              I'll be wholly flabbergasted if Obama even manages to win another squeaker there. Even the Obama camp is willing to admit Indiana's probably a stretch this time.

              For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

              by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 07:36:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Romney Losing Indiana Easily (0+ / 0-)

                I'm talking about the sort of specific scenario where Obama is headed for a big win and, based on a few factors (general movement in his direction, increased Democratic turnout, decreased Republican turnout, and so on), improves on his performance last time. Romney wouldn't lose the state by 15 in this situation, but he might lose it by five or six, which is pretty damn big given the state's history. It's all relative, of course.

                Romney would be strong here under most circumstances, as would Pawlenty, but I think the others would struggle big time, unless the economy was really in the toilet. Someone like Michelle Bachmann would lose Independents by a minimum of ten points, if not 15 or 20. She'd also lose far more Democrats to Obama than McCain ever might have lost, and she might even lose a bigger chunk of Republicans than some think. I doubt someone like Cain would be any different.

                If the partisan breakdown is 36/41/24 like it was in 2008, and Obama were to see his results 95/15/55 against Bachmann, he'd win the state with 53.55 percent of the vote. That's probably a low ball estimate. It would be closer with Romney, but not that much closer--if the election looks like a gimme for Obama and he has his floor fall out from under him.

                •  Well, we can at least agree on Bachmann losing big (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I just happen to think Indiana's a very fitting state for Romney.

                  For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

                  by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 11:48:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't (0+ / 0-)

                    IIRC it's the most manufacturing-heavy state in the country, and Mr. "Let the auto industry go bankrupt" probably won't sell there.

                    21, male, Kyoto-01 (residence) RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 02:41:28 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  In theory, yes. (0+ / 0-)

                    Like I said, I don't imagine him losing big, by say 15 points. Five or six points, maybe, short of a huge collapse, or maybe seven or eight if it's really bad. He's not offensive, but in the situation I described, Obama's winning big nationwide, and Romney, already struggling to cobble together a coalition, will probably have trouble turning out the vote. I imagine that there would be an emphasis on party building in all states, but especially in Indiana, given the number of important races.

                    Bachmann would be lucky to lose by only eight points in that state. Indeed, I was probably understating it before.

          •  Romney's popular in Montana (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Won the GOP caucus over there by 14 points. I highly doubt he'd lose there. It's a religious right candidate who might provide Obama an opening.

            For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

            by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 07:37:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

          Which is pretty much what PPP have found consistently.

  •  Obama Considering Another Tax Cut (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, andyroo312, askew

    Via Jon Chait, this is a great, great, great, great fucking move--if it's true. (I'm going to post this again tomorrow in the Daily Diary, but I so excited about this (more proof I am a dork, no?) that I felt the need to post it now.) Not to get too far into policy, but the country desperately needs this, as it could help spur job creation. I think the Social Security system can handle the stress, even though I do worry.

    Politically speaking, this is a great thing. As much as I like to see a push for more stimulus, specifically infrastructure, I can understand why they wouldn't do it. But a payroll tax cut for the employer side is, if not an equally good or even superior option, a strong second choice. All of the criticisms of the stimulus--from the legitimate to partisan to the absurd--won't work, and it makes him look reasonable and bipartisan, especially if some congressional Democrats make a stink about it. I'd hope the Republicans vote for this, but if they don't, then it gives him a GREAT campaign issue. As in, really great. Combine this ("I'm trying to cut taxes to create jobs, and the Republicans won't let me") and the Ryan plan ("The Republicans are trying to destroy Medicare as we know it") and we could have the makings for a massive election cycle for the Democrats.

    •  Well, any spending is out... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, askew

      ...'cos there's no way congress will do it, a point that many fellow liberals fail to understand.  We have lunatics running half of congress and they can block anything. Something like this is his only option, but the GOP will still find a way to block it, I'm sure.

      I don't know if it will do much, though.  Businesses hire because they need to hire, not because they get some sort of rebate.  Still, anything can help at this point, and it won't affect debt ceiling talks.  It's also good PR, but good PR only lasts for a few days.  It has to do something.

      I hear that he's also looking into releasing oil from the reserves.  That's also a dangerous game to play, since the price of gas will only drop 10 cents or so, and then once the supply is exhausted, it's exhausted!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 10:15:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  At this point, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

        I feel as if trying to stimulate the economy...well, I've got a different metaphors and analogies in mind, but all of them are kind of weak. Suffice it to say that, like you, I think anything can help. I'm not really sure this is the sort of move that would help to really create a lot of jobs--as in, 200,000 more than what we might otherwise get per month. I wouldn't think so, but what do I know? My guess is, it's a few different things: a move to give businesses more money so that they can hire, which will help those who get the jobs; a move to increase demand for other businesses, as they now have more customers; and a move to improve expectations--not in the fantasy land, "regulations are killing us" way the Republicans describe, but in the way so that those who have the ability to move forward can do so, which will move the needle even a little bit more. It is, in short, the sort of thing that would only move the needle a point or so by itself, but that would tug us along until it was no longer necessary...if that makes any sense.

        I'm honestly curious to see what the Republicans do here. They are leaving themselves open to a huge attack if they vote against it in such a blatantly political way. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some direct quote from Pawlenty or Romney advocating this move. Like I said above, after handling Medicare reform in such an idiotic fashion, do they really want to fumble this? Of course, if they vote for it, would the Teabaggers get pissed? I guess they have to vote for it but hope that it doesn't work.

        Also, maybe it's me, but gas prices seem to have gone down, or at least leveled off in the last few weeks. I'm not sure why he'd do it now, but I think he's responsible enough to do it only if it's a wise move.

    •  Great move (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Smart policy and smart politics.

      I'd like to see the Republicans try to pass this off as "more Democrat deficit spending" when they've been trying to argue for the past...forever...that cutting taxes doesn't count toward the deficit. Are they going to line up to vote against cutting taxes? I almost hope they do, just so the Democrats can bludgeon them with their own hypocrisy and shame them into passing it.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 11:40:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A totally wrong move (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Deprive social secuity of money.  Set it up for cuts or calls for privatization later.  

      The problem is housing.  They need to use freddie and fannie for some sort of mortgage relief program.  Would not require congressional action.

  •  News out of Michigan (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, askew, MichaelNY

    So, Romney comes back to Michigan shilling for campaign donations, and has not been treated kindly by either the right or the left for his "drop dead Detroit" editorial he wrote after winning our primary, and also after he dropped out of the primary race.  He completely burned his bridges, here, with that one as many Republicans felt double-crossed:

    Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, who supported the government intervention for General Motors and Chrysler, met constituents and the media at E&E Manufacturing in Plymouth to blast Romney, and tried to link the Republican candidate to President Barack Obama.

    "Motor City hospitality dictates a Michigan message to Mitt that our struggling families, entrepreneurs and workers think Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are not rivals, they're running mates," McCotter, who is considering his own run for the White House, said in a statement.

    Our state Democratic chairmen got in his shot, too:

    "I don't think we've seen a less inviting homecoming since LeBron (James) went back to Cleveland," quipped Mark Brewer, chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party, in a statement Wednesday. "He's here to fill his campaign coffers and get a couple photo-ops in a state he wrote off in 2008."

    The second part of the quote is kind of strange, because it's not a state he wrote off, at all.  He beat McCain, here, who has always been popular in Michigan.  In fact, McCain beat Dubya here in the 2000 primaries.

    In local news, state Dems have lit 15 small fires - plus the one for the governor - that the Republicans will have to work to either keep from actually starting or to put out depending on how far they make it:

    Lansing— At least 15 GOP legislators — in addition to Republican Gov. Rick Snyder — have been targeted for recall from voters upset about the emergency manager law, school cuts, the tax on pensions and other issues.

    Petitions are being circulated against Snyder, Sen. Mike Nofs, R-Battle Creek, and Rep. Al Pscholka, R-Stevensville. At least nine others, including the Senate Majority Leader and the House Speaker, await hearings — four are scheduled this week — on whether wording on petitions is clear enough to be approved by county elections officials. If OK'd, petitioners can begin collecting signatures.

    "It's (unprecedented) in terms of the sheer numbers of legislators subjected to recalls, including the governor," said Craig Ruff, senior fellow with Public Sector Consultants. "It is enough to unnerve legislators."

    ...

    This is going to be a very interesting year here in Big Mitten.

    •  Keep 'em on the run (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      It's all about turning up the pressure. If the Republicans are tossed out of the blue and purple states - and maybe a couple states trend from red to purple - next year, that's a victory.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 03:04:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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