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Although Nevada is awash in proposed maps and veto stamps, I decided to have some fun with my former home state and take stab at redrawing the lines without having seen any of what the legislature has proposed.

Here it goes:

Nevada - statewide

In terms of population - the numbers are fairly distributed, with the population deviating at no more or less than 6 people amongst the four districts. Using 2008 presidential election numbers, ALL four redrawn districts were won by President Obama, with winning percentages ranging between a plurality of 49% to an outright 61% majority. At best (and completely within the realm of possibility), the Democrats can capture all four seats. Under normal or midterm circumstances, the numbers might be 3-1 Democratic or an even 2-2 split in the delegation. Maybe the courts will produce a map like this?

Las Vegas

1st District (yellow) - VIVA LAS VEGAS!
The new 1st becomes more compact, shedding North Las Vegas and portions of Sunrise Manor and instead lurching southwards to take in Spring Valley and McCarran International Airport while keeping UNLV. Like its current incarnation, the new 1st maintains its status as a Democratic stronghold.
Current configuration: 64% Obama - 34% McCain
New configuration: 60.6% Obama - 37.2% McCain

Northern Nevada

2nd District (chocolate) - The Biggest Little District in the World!
What happens in Vegas is finally staying in Vegas. Anchored in Reno, the new 2nd only takes in the rural northern counties and the more populated Washoe, Storey, Lyon, and Douglas Counties as well as the independent Carson City. Although the least Democratic of the four districts, Obama still won with a plurality under these proposed lines. It will all boil down to independent voters and the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters. This is a swing county with a generic Republican lean, although certainly not unwinnable if a great Democratic candidate emerges and/or a really awful Republican candidate nabs the nomination (paging Sharron Angle).  
Current configuration: 49% Obama - 49% McCain (McCain won NV-02 by 88 votes out of over 335,700 votes cast)
New configuration: 49.4% Obama - 48.3% McCain (McCain will lose this district by 3,200 votes)

Southern Nevada/Clark County

3rd District (sky blue) - Hoover DAMN!!!
The new 3rd looks nothing like its current Y-shaped version. Although still hugging the Arizona border to its east and south, it loses its northwestern finger - with Spring Valley being included in the new 1st and the rest of the former territory - including some western portions of Henderson - being drawn into the newly-constituted 4th. It does however gain a significant chunk of North Las Vegas and ventures northwards out of Clark and takes in territory currently in the 2nd - such as almost all of Lincoln County and Nellis Air Force Base. I certainly hope that under these new lines, the new 3rd will become more reliably Democratic and not as swingish as its now. Also, fun fact: NV-03 was my home district from 2007-2008.
Current configuration: 55% Obama - 43% McCain
New configuration: 60.3% Obama - 37.4% McCain

Northern Nevada

4th District (lime green) - Desert sands and discount prices...
The new kid, the 4th will be anchored by western Henderson, Enterprise, and a lot of suburban southern Las Vegas and stretch northwards to take in all of Nye, White Pine, Lander, Esmeralda, Mineral and Eureka Counties and sparsely-populated chunks of Churchill, Lyon, and Elko. Major attractions include the fun-sounding communities of Tonopah and Pahrump, Ivanpah Valley (site of the future airport and the designer outlet stores at Primm), plus the haunted town of Goldfield. These proposed lines give the new 4th a minuscule Democratic lean, although more realistically it'll probably be as swingish (or even more swingish) than the current 3rd is now.
2008 numbers: 52.5% Obama - 45.5% McCain

Thoughts? Comments?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

    by BluntDiplomat on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 06:45:02 PM PDT

  •  Good attempt... (3+ / 0-)

    And I honestly believe your version of NV-02 is something that the judges can accept.

    Really, the only issue I see with your map is the VRA. Will Nevada's Supreme Court be OK with approving a map with no minority-majority district? While I do believe Republican legislators were overreaching in trying to force a grossly gerrymandered NV-01 that would have packed as many Clark County Latinos as possible into just one district, I do suspect the court will want a NV-01 with some sort of Latino CVAP plurality.

    •  Great map! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      Your NV-01 is beautiful. I'll try playing around with the map to create a minority-majority district. To be honest, the thought never really crossed my mind to create one. My biggest priority was to make my old home district as blue as possible. It still makes me queasy thinking that my once beloved district is being represented by Joe "Social Security is a Pyramid Scheme" Heck.

      Which Democrats do you think can run in the lines I proposed? I imagine that there'll be a strong Republican pool in NV-02 and NV-04, and maybe even NV-03.

      27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

      by BluntDiplomat on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 09:06:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In your map, I suspect Dina Titus... (0+ / 0-)

        Would probably want to make a comeback in your NV-01, since that district has UNLV and most of The East Side.

        Unfortunately, Blue Dog State Senator John Lee would probably feel the urge to run in your NV-03, since that includes his chunk of North Las Vegas, it isn't overwhelmingly minority-majority, and he would think he has a chance to woo Old Henderson with his "Joe Sixpack" style campaign. Perhaps if he gets a primary challenge from Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (she may not have won the Mayoral race and her house may be just outside the district, but at least some of her district overlaps and she now has higher name ID in East Las Vegas) or State Senator Ruben Kihuen. North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck would probably be the Republicans' only (faint) chance of holding this seat, but I doubt Joe Heck would step aside for her and I equally doubt the teabaggers' willingness to accept someone that moderate.

        OTOH, Joe Heck may be tempted to move to NV-04 and run there, especially since it has many of the parts of Henderson (like Sun City Anthem) where he performs best. But then again, State Senator Barbara Cegavske has been dying to run for Congress, and she's probably more beloved by teabaggers. On the Dem side, Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown, Henderson Mayor Andy Hafen, or (my) Former Assembly Member Ellen Spiegel is probably our best bet.

  •  In a good year (4+ / 0-)

    That map could end up 4D/0R, but more likely 3D/1R.

  •  Very good. 2-1-1 for sure. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, atdnext

    But may end up 2-0-2 by 2016.  I at first thought 2-2 was doable way back when, but now I know that such a thing may have been possible 10 years ago, but not anymore.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 08:29:49 PM PDT

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