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Massive credit due to jeffmd for crunching these numbers so quickly, as well as writing the bullet points below.

We threw together the following distribution analysis (click through for the spreadsheet version):

(As a note, the "new" district numbers aren't official; all we have are the commission's names, which sound suspiciously like they're naming Canadian ridings instead. We're simply trying to match numbers of each old district with the new district that's the best current match.)

What do we see? More districts stay pretty constant than most had expected.

  • The mash-up of Woolsey and Thompson can be seen pretty clearly, though Thompson's district is hacked up more than Woolsey's.
  • Contra Costa and Solano counties had been diced several ways to accomodate both George Miller and then-incumbent Ellen Tauscher; that disentanglement shifts populations significantly between the 7th and 10th.
  • In the East/South Bay, Pete Stark's district gets rearranged somewhat, and Mike Honda and Zoe Lofgren will presumably want to trade places.
  • McNerney lives in Stark's district, but the old 11th retains much of its San Joaquin core. The old tendril of the 18th is added as well.
  • As we discussed earlier, there's significant rearranging of the central valley between Cardoza and Denham, though Costa retains 79% of his old district.
  • David Dreier's district gets absolutely torn to shreds, with no more than 30% being retained in the new 26th. (Or what we've called the new 26th, "Ontario-Pomona").
  • There is significant rearranging in LA: unexpected though, is how much Judy Chu's would-be new riding district, "East SGV-Diamond Bar" takes from Adam Schiff's old 29th.
  • The "Orange County Coast" seems to set up a great GOP matchup between Messrs. Rohrbacher and Campbell and is composed entirely of their old districts; Campbell has the slight population advantage at 54-46.

And here are racial stats (click here for spreadsheet version):

Many Hispanic majority districts, and with the new 15th and 32nd (rather, "San Jose" and "San Gabriel Valley - Diamond Bar"), we have two Asian-plurality districts.  The 32nd also has an Asian VAP-majority. Dreier should be worried with the 57% Hispanic (52% VAP) Ontario district.

Additionally, the drop to 48% VAP Hispanic of Loretta Sanchez's 47th/"West Garden Grove" will almost certainly invite a VRA dilution claim - especially with the bump of Ed Royce's neighboring 40th to 41% Hispanic (36% VAP).

Finally, just to note the population loss in LA County's black community, none of the districts are more than 24% black - the old 33d, 35th, and 37th were 30%, 34%, and 25% black, respectively.

Wondering where the current Representatives live, and where they might run in 2012 (if they bother at all)? Follow us over the fold...

The first table is the current representatives, organized by district, but also including what district their houses now find themselves in:

Old Dist. Rep. Hometown New District
1 Thompson (D) St. Helena Yuba
2 Herger (R) Chico Modoc-Tehama
3 Lungren (R) Gold River Sacramento County
4 McClintock (R) Roseville Foothills
5 Matsui (D) Sacramento Sacramento City
6 Woolsey (D) Petaluma North Coast
7 Geo. Miller (D) Martinez Contra Costa
8 Pelosi (D) San Francisco San Francisco
9 Lee (D) Oakland Oakland
10 Garamendi (D) Walnut Grove Contra Costa
11 McNerney (D) Pleasanton Fremont/Newark/Union City
12 Speier (D) Hillsborough San Mateo
13 Stark (D) Fremont San Jose (or Fremont/Newark/Union City?)
14 Eshoo (D) Atherton San Mateo/Santa Clara/Santa Cruz
15 Honda (D) San Jose South Santa Clara
16 Lofgren (D) San Jose San Jose
17 Farr (D) Carmel Monterey
18 Cardoza (D) Atwater Merced
19 Denham (R) Atwater Merced
20 Costa (D) Fresno Merced
21 Nunes (R) Tulare Fresno
22 McCarthy (R) Bakersfield Tulare
23 Capps (D) Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara
24 Gallegly (R) Simi Valley Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita
25 McKeon (R) Santa Clarita Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita
26 Dreier (R) San Dimas East San Gabriel Valley/Covina
27 Sherman (D) Sherman Oaks West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas
28 Berman (D) North Hollywood West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas
29 Schiff (D) Burbank San Gabriel Mountain Foothills
30 Waxman (D) Los Angeles West L.A./Downtown?
31 Becerra (D) Los Angeles East L.A./Boyle Hts.
32 Chu (D) Monterey Park East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar
33 Bass (D) Los Angeles Crenshaw/Leimert Park?
34 Roybal-Allard (D) Los Angeles East L.A./Boyle Hts.?
35 Waters (D) Los Angeles Ingelwood/South Gate?
36 vacant -- --
37 Richardson (D) Long Beach Long Beach Port
38 Napolitano (D) Norwalk Downey-Whittier
39 Linda Sanchez (D) Lakewood Long Beach Port
40 Royce (R) Fullerton La Habra/Yorba Linda
41 Lewis (R) Redlands Mono/Inyo/San Bernardino
42 Gary Miller (R) Diamond Bar East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar
43 Baca (D) Rialto San Bernardino/Rialto
44 Calvert (R) Corona Perris
45 Bono Mack (R) Palm Springs Coachella
46 Rohrabacher (R) Huntington Beach Orange County Coast
47 Loretta Sanchez (D) Anaheim La Habra/Yorba Linda
48 Campbell (R) Irvine Orange County Coast
49 Issa (R) Vista Coastal San Diego
50 Bilbray (R) Carlsbad Coastal San Diego
51 Filner (D) San Diego Imperial/San Diego?
52 Hunter (R) Lakeside Northeast San Diego
53 Davis (D) San Diego San Diego/Coronado

And, for comparison, here's a list organized according to the new districts (ordered according to the numbering scheme that Jeff put together), listing who all lives in each of the districts. Unfortunately, there's some guess-work involved where Reps. are listed as living in "San Jose," "Los Angeles," or "San Diego;" I've proceded based on the lines of their current districts, but if you have some additional insight into where, exactly, these Reps. live, please let us know in the comments.

”New” District Temp Name Rep. (or Reps.)
1 Yuba Thompson (D)
2 Modoc/Tehama Herger (R)
3 Sacramento County Lungren (R)
4 Foothills McClintock (R)
5 Sacramento City Matsui (D)
6 North Coast Woolsey (D)
7 Yolo/Sonoma/Napa --
8 San Francisco Pelosi (D)
9 Oakland Lee (D)
10 Contra Costa Geo. Miller (D), Garamendi (D)
11 San Joaquin --
12 San Mateo Speier (D)
13 Fremont/Newark/Union City McNerney (D)
14 San Mateo/Santa Clara/Santa Cruz Eshoo (D)
15 San Jose Stark (D)?, Lofgren (D)
16 South Santa Clara Honda (D)
17 Monterey Farr (D)
18 Stanislaus --
19 Merced Cardoza (D), Denham (R), Costa (D)
20 Kings --
21 Fresno Nunes (R)
22 Tulare McCarthy (R)
23 San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara Capps (D)
24 East Ventura --
25 Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita Gallegly (R), McKeon (R)
26 Ontario --
27 West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas Sherman (D), Berman (D)
28 East San Fernando Valley/Tujunga --
29 San Gabriel Mountain Foothills Schiff (D)
30 West L.A./Downtown Waxman (D)?
31 East L.A./Boyle Hts. Roybal-Allard (D), Becerra (D)
32 East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar Chu (D), Gary Miller (R)
33 Crenshaw/Leimert Park Bass (D)?
34 Downey/Whittier Napolitano (D)
35 Inglewood/South Gate Waters (D)?
36 Palos Verdes/Beach Cities vacant (presumably Hahn (D))
37 Hawthorne/Gardena/Compton --
38 East San Gabriel Valley/Covina Dreier (R)
39 Long Beach Port Richardson (D), Linda Sanchez (D)
40 La Habra/Yorba Linda Royce (R), Loretta Sanchez (D)
41 Mono/Inyo/San Bernardino Lewis (R)
42 Perris Calvert (R)
43 San Bernardino/Rialto Baca (D)
44 Riverside/Moreno Valley --
45 Coachella Bono Mack (R)
46 Orange County Coast Rohrabacher (R), Campbell (R)
47 West Garden Grove --
48 South Orange County --
49 Coastal San Diego Bilbray (R), Issa (R)
50 San Diego/Coronado Davis (D)?
51 Imperial/San Diego Filner (D)?
52 Northeast San Diego Hunter (R)
53 Chula Vista/National City --

That's a lot of districts looking for Representatives, isn't it! However, a lot of these conundrums seem like they'll be easy to fix themselves. For instance, George Miller, although Martinez is currently in the "Contra Costa" district along with John Garamendi, is likely to move over to the "Yolo/Sonoma/Napa" district, which contains much of his current turf. Similarly, Laura Richardon, although her house is in Long Beach, is likely to move from the "Long Beach Port" district to the "Hawthorne/Gardena/Compton" district which she already represents. On the GOP side, it's easy to see John Campbell, currently in "Orange County Coast" with Dana Rohrabacher, picking up and moving a few miles to the currently empty "South Orange County" seat.

The situation in the 11th, 13th, and 15th may resolve itself with McNerney moving east to "San Joaquin," which is now more Stockton-centered, and Stark (if he doesn't retire) staying where he is. If Stark retires, McNerney might prefer to stay in "Fremont/Newark/Union City," clearing the way for, most likely, a Hispanic legislator to claim "San Joaquin."

And don't expect Loretta Sanchez to run against Republican Ed Royce in "La Habra/Yorba Linda." Even though it's shorn of Anaheim, the "West Garden Grove" seat to its south is a much better fit for her, considering that it still contains Santa Ana and a Hispanic majority (albeit a narrower one... to the extent that we're concerned it might not survive a VRA retrogression claim).

I don't see a convenient way for Brian Bilbray and Darrell Issa to avoid a primary battle with each other in "Coastal San Diego" (although Issa might prefer to look north to "Perris," thinking that the underwhelming Ken Calvert might be a better target, and also that he already represents much of that turf).

Elton Gallegly is probably thinking of unbotching his previous botched retirements, as his alternatives are running a primary against Buck McKeon on mostly McKeon's turf, or moving into the now vacant and Dem-friendly "East Ventura" seat. Next to that, there's an interesting Dem-on-Dem battle potentially looming: Brad Sherman (of the Sherman Oaks neighborhood, apparently no relation) and Howard Berman (of North Hollywood) are now both in "West San Fernando Valley," leaving "East San Fernando Valley" open, probably for a Hispanic legislator. Does Berman (who's 70) pack it in, or does he move slightly east and try to continue on what's mostly his turf?

Finally, notice the mighty pile-up in the "Merced" seat. Expect Reps. Costa, Cardoza, and Denham to try to unpack themselves into three separate seats, although the "Stanislaus" seat, apparently the reddest of the three options, might still be too swingy for Republican Denham's tastes.

So, by my count, that now means we're looking for Hispanic legislators to fill in three seats that are basically new from the ground-up: "Ontario," "Riverside/Moreno Valley," and "Chula Vista/National City." (And if Bob Filner becomes San Diego mayor or just retires (he's 69), that'll take it up to four.) Watch for the rumors and/or announcements to start flying in the coming weeks.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 03:41 PM PDT.

Also republished by Butte County kossacks of CA-01 and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Incumbents (10+ / 0-)

    Honda lives in Campbell, which is in the South Santa Clara district.

    Lofgren definitely lives in the San Jose district.

    Becerra lives in Eagle Rock, which is in the East LA/Boyle Heights district.

  •  Wow! (3+ / 0-)

    My initial take is that this looks better for the Dems than the pro-incumbent redistricting Dems would have fashioned with Rep help. It's better for fair Latino/a representation too. This looks to me to be a presentist rather than nostalgic map--an improvement over the status quo.

  •  More Incumbents (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Garamendi definitely lives in the Yolo/Sonoma/Napa district.

    Waters lives in Hancock Park, which is in the West LA district, but she claims a residence in Inglewood or Watts or something like that.

  •  Thoughts on Woolsey's District (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If Woolsey does retire, it will be interesting to see how  the new lines affect the bids of the candidates. So far, there is a pretty splintered field from Marin County with progressive activist Norman Solomon, County Supervisor Susan Adams and State Assemblymember Jared Huffman running for the seat. Although the Marin/Sonoma portion of Woolsey's seat seems to have more people than the Mendocino/Humboldt section, the Marin candidates could divide the vote down here allowing a REAL North Coast candidate (Mendocino northwards is the North Coast) to win.

    Jared Huffman though may be able to make inroads among the North Coast though if he highlights his environmental credidentials. He has done alot of work for the environment and North Coast voters are very pro environment.

    As for Mike Thompson, his base is in the Santa Rosa/Yuba district so I have a feeling he will run there.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 04:15:06 PM PDT

    •  North Coast Candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      If he decided to run-- Wes Chesbro. He's represented that strip of the north coast for pretty much ever between the SD and now AD.

    •  Gavin Newsom will run if she retires (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      That's the rumor as to why he is moving to Ross in Marin County.

      •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        not even a year in the Lt. Governor's position and he's already contemplating running for congress? I thought he wanted to run for Governor. Though Newsom would be better suited in a legislative role in my opinion.

        President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

        by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 12:44:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then who would run for Governor, after (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Brown? Would Feinstein?

          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:01:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Depends (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

            my feeling Brown is not going to run for a second term in 2014. He's very old and I have the feeling he's only wanted to become governor again so he could fix the chronic dysfunction gripping Sacramento and the budget then get retire with his wife and enjoy their golden days.

            If he doesn't run again 2014 as I suspect Bowen is term limited but seeing her performance in the CA-36 election I have no confidence she has what it takes to run in hyper competitive elections. John Chiang the comptroller is termed in 2014 as well.

            He made some rumblings a few years back about running for governor when Schwarzengger was termed. Also the treasurer John Lockyer who has the whole term limit musical chairs routine down is termed as well. He has a hefty bank account as well and could run for governor. But he's probably going to run for comptroller.

            State senate president Darrell Steinberg is termed that same year as well. He's already opened up a campaign account for Lt. Governor and could run for governor if he wants.

            Kamala Harris is an outside possibility as well, but I think the cw here is she's going to wind up in the senate one of these days (probably when Boxer retires).

            In short the bench is quite packed and don't forget some congressman might try to run for governor. But without Newsom there's no person on the inside track. And Feinstein has had her chance to run for governor but she's passed on it over and over, so she's probably just going to spend the rest of her career in the senate.

            President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

            by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:23:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Chiang sounds like an (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              interesting possibility. The first Taiwanese Governor. He was one of the better performing electorally, in 2010, wasn't he?  

              Isn't Lockyer rather old himself? I mean not that it would matter a great deal. Just from reading his Wiki page, it seems he likes jumping around from statewide office to statewide office.

              Bowen's stock definitely went down after her special election loss. I still have hope for her though. Do you think she will run for something else?

              Harris is my personal favorite. She so much future potential. I do hope she runs for Senate.  

              19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:40:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  chiang did surprisingly well in 2010 (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, zeuspapa

                in parts of the state dems don't usually do well in. he has the advantage of being controller during these budget crises, and so has done well bulldogging on behalf of the state workers, refusing to pay the legislature when budgets aren;t passed, etc.

                given CA's fraught history with asian-americans, chiang getting elected governor would be somewhat analogous to obama getting elected president of the US.

                •  Chiang would probably be #2 to Newsom (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wu ming

                  If Newsom opts for Congress, which would be a stupid move in my view, when he has such a clear shot for Governor in 2014 (presuming Brown retires), and another clear one in 2018 (if Brown goes for two terms). But let's say he does, for whatever reason, and Brown retires after one term...

                  Of the remaining statewide officeholders, Lockyer is old, and partisan, and a career politician. Bowen is younger and has reformist credentials, but looks weak after losing to Hahn (and a Republican!) in the special. Harris needs to prove her electoral chops statewide before she can go for the top spot (she'd be a top player in 2018 if she does). Same with Jones. Chiang appeals to moderates without alienating liberals, would have the Asian-American community at his back, and could probably get significant union backing, too. And he has lots of gov't finance experience at a time when California is in fiscal trouble.

                  Villaraigosa is unloved in LA which is supposed to be his base, Sanchez's relationship with the Vietnamese community (and Asians generally) took a big hit in 2010 and she's somewhat scandal-prone. And DiFi will likely end her career in the Senate, methinks. So unless Newsom runs, I think Chiang would actually be the front-runner to succeed Brown, presuming he wants this thankless task.

                  Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

                  by arealmc on Sun Jun 12, 2011 at 05:56:00 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  if the dems get a supermajority (0+ / 0-)

                    and/or we manage to pass an initiative to do a prop 13 split roll and/or a majority vote on revenue during the brown admin (and i suspect he'll do two terms if he stays healthy enough), governing the state wouldn't be such a thankless job.

                    chiang being from socal might also help. norcal governors are a lot less common than socal ones.

                  •  i wouldn't be surprised to see bowen run (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    kaliope

                    for the senate, after feinstein or boxer retire. i wouldn't read too much into her performance in the last race, which she didn't prepare for in advance, given that harman only tipped hahn off about her sudden retirement. getting elected statewide is half of getting elected to a senate or gubernatorial seat; the other half is being able to survive a brutal general election full of nasty third party ad buys and millionaire self-funder candidates.

                    bowen's got the first one down with her two wins for SoS, jury's out on the second one for nearly everyone else mentioned, save harris (whose survival in that race suggests a long career ahead).

          •  bowen, chiang, jones, villaraigosa, sanchez, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            garamendi, we've got tons of dems with statewide ambitions. my hunch is that feinstein will stay in the senate until the bitter end.

  •  Overall, I like it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, itskevin

    I would prefer a ridiculously ambitious gerrymander, but that probably would not have happened even with Dem control. This map only seems to have 9 or 10 seats that are REALLY safe GOP. The rest are all at least winnable for Democrats, and most will get more Democratic as time goes by because of increasing minority populations.

  •  Yolo/*Solano*/Napa (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Jarman, MichaelNY, itskevin

    And it really is quite amusing that Miller represents more people from that district and lives in CoCo, while Garamendi represents more people from CoCo and lives in YoSoN.

    Either way, that'll be my district.

    •  Does Garamendi (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      have two residences? Wikipedia lists him as Walnut Grove, and I can't get a straight answer off his website. From the CA-10 special election, though, I remember that Sacramento County "ranch" he owns that allegedly crossed district lines... is that what's in the YSN district? Does he just have a PO box in Walnut Grove?

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 04:27:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Garimendi (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I live both in the proposed CD, and the old CD10, and in both the primary and the general election of the special election, his residence out of the district was attempted as a major issue.

      •   (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        http://www.garamendi.org/

        The web site does list Walnut Grove, but if you look at the small print at the very bottom, the PO box is his office.

      •  Garamendi (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        from wiki

        Despite living outside of Congressional District 10, Garamendi announced his intention to run for the open congressional seat vacated by Ellen Tauscher on April 22, 2009. There was some confusion about the location of Garamendi's residence, as he told both the New York Times and San Francisco Chronicle that a portion of his property was, in fact, in the district. "My front yard is in the district, our bedroom is not" – SF Chronicle April, 2009. Garamendi continued to fuel speculation about the location of his residence when he made similar comments to the NYT in July, stating the same thing. The Sacramento Board of Elections later confirmed that no portion of Garamendi’s property lies within Congressional District 10.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

  •   (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, itskevin

    Miller, who I think lives in Martinez, lives here in the new CONTRACOSTA district, He has no need to move.

    Garimendi, who "lives in Sacramento on his ranch, across the river from the 10th" [quote from my memorey] would now live in his distrrict. There is onlly so much of Sacramento County across the river from the old 10th, and all of it is in the new YOLOSOLNAP.

    No need for anyone to move.

    The

    •  Garamendi and Miller flip; 10 gets more "purple" (0+ / 0-)

      Joe's right, but to be clear: Miller (currently CA-7) lives in the new 10 Contra Costa, Garamendi (CA-10) lives in the new 7 Yolo Solano Napa. They could easily trade numbers because both will be Dem-majority districts. But...

      The new 10 will not be as reliable as Miller's old 7. He loses very-Dem areas in the west part of CC county (Richmond, Hercules) and gains centrist or Repo areas in the center and south--that's the area Tauscher came out of. Miller can probably get elected under any configuration; but whoever succeeds him will have to be more Tauscher-like and probably still have a tougher time.

  •  Another spreadsheet (0+ / 0-)

    http://redistrictingpartners.com/...

    Includes citizen voting age population by race.

    •  Citizen Voting Age Population or Registered Vot... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ... is much more important than voting age population or total population by race. In California, the biggest barrier to voting is citizenship.

      Latinos made up 40% of the population but only 20% of the registered voters, because of a) non citizenship, b) an age structure skewed towards younger voters, and c) generally decreased participation among those who are voting age citizens.

      Those who ignore the future are condemned to repeat it.

      by enigmamf on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:03:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm in China and can't view the spreadsheet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But am curious as to Hispanic % in a lot of these districts. Can someone type out the %'s in every Hispanic-majority district?

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 04:37:25 PM PDT

  •  As a citizen of the new "CA-49" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, stevenaxelrod, itskevin

    AKA, the one that goes up coastal san Diego all the way to dana point (I live in San Clemente), I'm excited to live in a swing district, and also glad to see that Calvert may be out of a job.  I think these lines look great, and only hope they mostly look the same by the time they are finalized.

    Swingnut since 2009, 20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 04:39:16 PM PDT

  •  Red Racing Horses (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, walja, itskevin

    has calculated some PVIs here

    http://www.redracinghorses.com/...

    1. D+19
    2. R+8
    3. R+2
    4. R+12
    5. D+15
    "6". D+9
    7. D+12
    (8-10 Safe D)
    11. D+4
    (12-17 Safe D)
    18. R+2
    19. D+4
    20. R+1
    21. R+10
    22. R+17
    23. D+3
    24. D+5
    25. R+4
    "26". (Riverside) D+4
    (27-31 Safe D)
    32. D+6
    (33-35 Safe D)
    36. D+9
    37. D+12 (Maybe no more Laura Richardson???!!!)
    (38-39 Safe D)
    40. R+6
    41. R+11
    "42". (Ontario) D+4
    43. D+11
    44. R+8
    45. R+2
    46. R+3
    47. R+1
    48. R+8
    "49". D+6
    50. R+4
    51. D+14
    52. R+14
    53. D+3

    •  If these numbers are correct. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      I'd say we're looking at the following.  

      Solid D (PVI D+5 or better) - 29
      Lean D (D+4, D+3) - 7
      Tossup (D+2 to R+2) - 5
      Lean R (R+3 to R+6) - 4
      Solid R (R+7 or better) - 8

      In contrast, the current map is 30 - 3 - 1 - 9 - 10 under the same measures.

      The map favors the Democrats, but not heavily so.  If California Republicans could perform as well as say Republicans in the Philly burbs, they'd possibly be able to get most of the lean D seats.  On the other hand, if California Democrats managed to run credible candidates, there's a number of seats they could snag.  

      Most likely, however, the seat breakdown will be 36 - 17 (-2R. +2D) - the tossup seats are all R+1 or R+2, which means the Republicans will be favored for now.  

    •  I'm disappointed that Duncan Hunter Jr. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SeekCa

      managed to hang on to a safe Republican district.  In a swing district this undeserving chump would be toast.  

      •  Ummm... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ogre, Mber, MichaelNY

        I don't think there's a way to create a district out of East County that isn't a solid lock for a Republican.

        I've lived here most of my life.

        East County is as conservative as Texas... even the weather's kinda the same.

        --Shannon

        "It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." -- Emiliano Zapata Salazar
        "Dissent is patriotic. Blind obedience is treason." --me

        by Leftie Gunner on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:28:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, it all depends how you draw the lines (0+ / 0-)

          If you combined part of Hunter's current district with Imperial County you'd end up with a different district.  Maybe that's not the sort of district that's being mandated to be drawn, but I can still wish for something else.  

  •  Latino legislators in those "ridings" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    So, by my count, that now means we're looking for Hispanic legislators to fill in three seats that are basically new from the ground-up: "Ontario," "Riverside/Moreno Valley," and "Chula Vista/National City."

    Here are some Latino legislators from those parts serving in the California Legislature right now:
    Gloria Negrete McLeod
    Norma Torres
    Ben Hueso
    Marty Block

    •  Negrete's In, as well as Tony Cardenas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Goobergunch, walja, MichaelNY

      http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/...

      http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/...

      And, of course, Juan Vargas for the former Filner seat that's now too latino.

      Salas should run for Vargas's seat, if it's still open at that point.

      •  That was quick (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I didn't expect Negrete-McLeod to run, she's almost 70 and many times older legislators don't look to move up. She's not a bad choice though.

        I wonder if Berman will primary Sherman or just take his chances in the other SFV district that's majority Hispanic? Like I said before, I think he could survive that primary.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 05:07:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "That's mine" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Wow, interesting attitude. Anyone have suspicions about whether the much-younger Norma Torres will run against her?

          The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

          by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 05:19:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Norma Torres (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is certifiably crazy. She's taken up Gloria Romero's mantle of quickly burning thru office staff, and while she was a fairly strong Dem before taking office (and thought by many to be a progressive) she quickly tacked to the right.

            So, yes, she certainly could challenge NM-C. Or she could just run for state senate.

          •  She might (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            McLeod is pretty good at winning primaries, she won one for her state senate seat with over 60%. The district is almost tailor made for her, which is why she was saying "that's mine", because she's got a head start.

            25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

            by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 05:28:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Don't know why everyone (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      expects a Latino to win in "Chula Vista/National City." The only Latino-majority San Diego district is still the Imperial County one. The Chula Vista seat should be Susan Davis' for a while.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 05:18:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If I were Susan Davis (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, walja

        (and I'm not), I'd be weighing whether I feel better about a short-term struggle to beat Brian Bilbray in a light-blue district (rumors I'm hearing are that Bilbray might run in "San Diego/Coronado," even though it's D+3ish... after all, he represented a kind of iteration of this district in his first stint in the House in the 90s), or a safer bluer district but a more long-term struggle against possible Hispanic primary opponents as "Chula Vista/National City" continues to Hispanify. Considering that Davis is on the moderate side, I might expect her to think the former is a better fit. But that's just speculation.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

        by David Jarman on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:26:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I dig the "riding" names--let's scrap the numbers. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I always thought Canada's system of naming their legislative ridings was WAY cooler than our boring and unimaginative system of numbering them!  

  •  So overall (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Only 21 of 53 districts in California have an outright white majority voting age population and just 17 of 53 have an overall white majority.  

  •  From a partisan standpoint (4+ / 0-)

    The big picture of this map:

    - the Bay Area loses one Dem seat (Stark's or McNerney's, depending who wins that fight), which is shifted to a new Dem-leaning district ("San Joaquin", which seems about right for someone like Cathleen Galgiani)
    - L.A. loses one safe Dem seat (Roybal-Allard's) and one GOP seat (Gary Miller's), which are shifted to two new Dem-leaning Inland Empire districts ("Ontario", where Gloria Negrete McLeod and possibly Norma Torres are running, and "Riverside--Moreno Valley")
    - the only incumbent done in from a partisan standpoint is Dreier, whose district is prime territory for a Latino Dem
    - two Dems see their districts retooled specifically to elect Latinos (Berman and Filner)
    - several incumbents see their districts become more politically competitive (Denham, Costa, Gallegly, Lungren, Capps, Bilbray, Loretta Sanchez), while Cardoza's stays competitive

    Very likely to be out of Congress in January 2013: Dreier, Gary Miller, either Stark or McNerney, Roybal-Allard (unless Becerra runs for something else), Berman (as Tony Cardenas takes the new East SF Valley seat and Sherman stays on top in the west). And I think Gallegly would rather retire than face a real race.

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 05:41:20 PM PDT

    •  I assume McNerney will run in San Joaquin (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Even though he doesn't live there, a lot of his current district is in the territory, and seems more likely to do that than to take on Stark in a primary (assuming Stark decides to stick around, he's been in Congress for almost 40 years...)

      Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

      by terjeanderson on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 06:14:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  if McNerney threatened to run against Stark (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        I think Stark would retire. It's largely up to McNerney whether he wants to fight for votes in Dem-leaning but less liberal Stockton or the East Bay (where, if he were to defeat Stark and/or push him into retirement, he'd have a safe seat for years to come).

        That said, I wonder if major elements of this map won't be revamped in the next two months. Loretta Sanchez needs a strong Latino seat or the commission is just asking for a lawsuit. Also not sure how the elimination of a downtown L.A. Latino seat will go down. One Latino advocacy group is already infuriated about Waxman's district "lumping the poorest communities in Los Angeles in with West Side billionaires." That said, this map does create some great opportunities for Latino candidates, what with the SF Valley seat, the Ontario seat, the nominal Dreier seat, and the former Filner seat. That's four likely Latino pickups right there.

        The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

        by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 06:20:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Serious potential VRA issues with the map (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If nothing else, there will have to be some significant tweaking with boundaries to deal with several seats where the Latino percentage is too low to meet the VRA requirements - given the issues around actual voting age population, citizenship status, and differential turnout, the courts aren't likely to accept Latino population in the low 50s as being sufficient.

          While not providing as clear cut of a legal case (since none of the districts were African-American majority to begin with), the fact that there are no longer even any African-American plurality, let alone dominant, districts is certainly a political problem that the commission is going to hear a lot about. But without the VRA protection for the black districts in LA, it is unlikely that the courts would find grounds to do anything about it.

          (I haven't played around with the maps to see, but I suspect that a possible solution may involve some territorial switches to up the black percentage in a couple of LA districts while increasing the Latino percentages in some adjoining ones.)

          Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

          by terjeanderson on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:21:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  actually, not four (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        net pickup of two, given that Linda Sanchez and Xavier Becerra were basically eliminated.

        The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

        by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 06:22:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Up above, someone calculates the Riverside/Moreno (0+ / 0-)

      district (which we're calling CA-44) as R+8.

      Gutting CA-47 shall not stand.

      Clarence Thomas had a dump
      Weiner said "this guy's a chump"
      He was caught tweeting pix riské
      So Justice Thomas got away.
      (Temporarily.)

      by Seneca Doane on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 06:56:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rorbacher will have to run against Campbell. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      According to Calitics.

    •  Waxman (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SeekCa

      I mentioned this down thread, but Waxman is a really bad choice to represent the urban core of Los Angeles. Roybal-Allard isn't a firehouse but she has consistently understood the needs of her urban constituents.

      It almost looks like someone is giving LA the finger with this redistricting given the high priority that transportation needs for the city. Waxman opposed federal funding for the red line for over 20 years. He's a really bad choice for the core.

    •  Add George Miller (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      to the list of "several incumbents see their districts become more politically competitive".

  •  Looking at the SNJOA district, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I think it's really fertile ground for a Democrat. I think McNerney has every reason to run here. We only just barely lost the AG race, apparently.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:29:27 PM PDT

  •  Also, am I crazy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    or is the WLADT district tailor made for a gay candidate?

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:37:55 PM PDT

    •  probably when Waxman retires (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

      but in the meantime, he's been there since 1974, is a famous liberal voice, and will have Hollywood money behind him.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:47:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's close (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      If we can get the commission to shift the rapidly-gaying NoHo (aka-NoHo Arts District) out of its current totally nonsensical placement in the San Gabriel Foothills district (where it's a "community of interest" with Upland, Duarte and other places most in NoHo have never heard of) while in return dropping some of its current southern periphery or maybe some of the downtown-ish parts, it'd be ideal. And it would make sense from a communities of interest perspective--it would be the Hollywood district (it'd have West Hollywood, North Hollywood, Hollywood proper and the Hollywood Hills).

      Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

      by arealmc on Sun Jun 12, 2011 at 06:15:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Becerra (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    really seems like the odd man out.  All the other Dems can shuffle, but it doesn't look like there's a seat for him.  It looks like he has three options:

    1. Retire
    2. Run in Roybal-Allard's district
    3. Run for Senate against DiFi

    I would think with the implementation of the top two system options 2 and 3 would be more palatable than otherwise.

    •  Better not be true or there'll hell to pay .. (0+ / 0-)

      Becerra's leadership.

    •  Against DiFi? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I really like Becerra.  Just can't see him defeating Difi in a primary though.

      •  Top 2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        There aren't any primaries anymore.  In the first round, everyone competes against each other, D and R alike.  Then the top two vote getters go on to November, regardless of party.

        I'm not saying its likely to happen, but I don't think he'd be "primarying" her in the traditional sense.  Plus, she hasn't said yet if she is running again, though I'd guess she is.

        •  Wonder how this new system will impact things (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Does it really help either part to have a top 2 system in CA?

          •  I'm not sure (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Conventional wisdom seemed to be that it hurts Dems.  We've only seen one election using the system, the CA-36 special.  It didn't really hurt, because Hahn made into the final round, where she will likely win.  Also, it was really close to having two Dems in the final round.

            My uneducated guess is that it will only matter in very swingy districts.  If a party runs more than two candidates, it's possible none of them make it to the second round in November.

        •  Question (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If a candidate gets over 50% in the primary, does that mean that that candidate wins and there is no runoff? In Louisiana, where they have an open primary, if a candidate gets over 50%, there is no general election. So, in CA, if the top candidate gets over 50%, does that mean there is no general election? Or do the top two candidates advance anyway to the runoff?

          •  Top two advance to general (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Except in special elections, where, like you said, if one breaks 50%, then they are elected and there is no need for a second election. Also, the candidates don't need to have a party label if they don't affiliate with a party. And no write-ins.

            I think it's more accurately described as a nonpartisan blanket primary (like Louisiana), but open sounded better to Maldo and Arnie.

    •  And there's also Mayor (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, M Riles

      In 2013, the Mayor's office will be open and he's run before, so it may be appealing to him again.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 09:07:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think the numbers clearly favor Becerra (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, M Riles

      In the East LA/Boyle Heights district, it seems to me that the numbers clearly favor Becerra, not Roybal-Allard.

      First of all, from a geographic standpoint, the ELABH district seems to be roughly split between retaining the core of Becerra's district and the core of Roybal-Allard's district.

      However, as a rough projection, Becerra should be favored to take his constituents (231763) and those of Berman (2488), Schiff (25727), Bass (48012), and Chu (76603). Meanwhile, Roybal-Allard should be favored to take her constituents (265029) and Napolitano's (53282).

      That comes up to 384593 Becerra versus 318311 Roybal-Allard.

      And, here's the clincher: The foreign-born population is notably higher in the parts of the ELABH district represented by Roybal-Allard than the parts represented by Becerra.

  •  Really hoping Rep. Issa challenges... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew

    Rep. Calvert. I hate them both, the unethical scumbags, but realistically only one of them can be eliminated.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 12:06:33 AM PDT

  •  Why list McClintock in the foothills district (0+ / 0-)

    He doesn't live there.  Lungren actually lives closer.

    Of course McClintock couldn't care less where he lives, but if Lungrn had sense he'd run in the Foothills district.  It has part of his old district, and it is uber-red.  (And I'd rather have Lungren there than McClintock.)

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

    by tommypaine on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 03:02:00 AM PDT

  •  Good site for Cal leg breakdowns (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    http://redistrictingpartners.com/

    Breaks down demographics and partisanship for the proposed Assembly and Senate lines, as well as including where the current incumbent's homes are.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 11:43:45 AM PDT

    •  It's good info (0+ / 0-)

      Their numbers are terrific.  Just don't pay the "Partisanship" category too much attention.  They seem to be factoring in purely demographis numbers and not potential candidates/incumbents.  According to their partisanship they have 37D/16R.  In reality we're probably looking at a couple more Dems and a couple fewer Reps with this map.  Most obvious I'd say is Lungren's new seat that they call "Leans R" but seems more of a Tossup/Tilt D with Bera running against a somewhat weak Lungren.

    •  Say goodbye to sam blakeslee (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      The central coastal Senate district finally gets undummymandered... Santa Cruz, Monterey and Salinas all in the district now.  Safe D after it votes out Blakeslee.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 04:52:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I really hope so (0+ / 0-)

        I volunteered for John Laird's campaign in last year's special election.  Would love to see Blakeslee finally go down.  

        21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 05:08:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I just noticed that Tony Strickland might be done (0+ / 0-)

        His district lost a lot of it's Republican edge, if Hannah Beth Jackson wanted a rematch next year, she could pull it off. We could pick up two seats in the Senate.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 06:50:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Waxman is bad for Downtown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    esquimaux, MichaelNY

    Wow. Unbelievable finger to Los Angeles in that redistricting map.

    If it's true, Downtown LA could possibly fall under Waxman, who historically has opposed public transportation (he opposed federal funds for the red line for over 20 years) - that may work for the affluent Westside, but it's a nightmare for the urban core.

    That's an incredibly bad move for the city of Los Angeles.

  •  San Joaquin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bobinson

    I'm originally from Modesto (CA) and still have big ties there.  It has been mostly conservative for a very long time.  Interesting to see the hispanic data there now.  Probably gonna be a big change in much of the politics in that entire area now because of this.  

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:10:11 AM PDT

  •  We heard from the past last night... (0+ / 0-)

    On economic issues, they sounded like Herbert Hoover. On federalism and constitutional issues, we heard Calhoun. On regulatory issues, we heard Hoover again. On gay people, we heard from the folks who did not want to integrate the services in the late 1940s. On foreign policy, we heard Monroe’s bravado with a patina of Carter to take the sting off the rhetoric. On health care, we heard from Milton Friedman who also spoke up on taxes. On job creation, we heard from the Gilded Age Robber Barons, all of them. On letting Nato and France take the lead in Libya, we heard from the John Birch Society. On just about everything, we heard from the past. On the greatness of America, we heard from John Wayne. On repealing everything Obama has done, we heard from Dewey when he said he would undo the New Deal. On abortion and women's rights, we heard from Jerry Falwell. On Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, we heard from the SCOTUS in 1935. On the constitution, we heard from Jefferson in 1803 after Marbury. On the Congress, we heard Newt say what he said in 1994. On American values, we heard from Strom Thurmon in 1948. On immigration, we heard from the Protestants when Catholics started coming in droves in the late 1800s. On separation of church and state, we heard from Bush Sr when he said atheists should not be Americans. On energy, we heard from John D. Rockefeller in 1900. On free trade, we heard them tell Ross Perot to jump in the lake. On the Federal Reserve, we heard from the guys who wrote the Jekyl Island book. On Isreal and the Middle East, we heard from Ben Gurion and Moshe Dayan. On deficits, we heard from Mondale in 84.

    Now, of all the people who ever lived and ruled in our great nation, do you really think we should be reliving the policies of these folks again?

    Liberalism is a label used by the right to obscure our true agenda which is really nothing but the use of pragmatism instead of ideology.

    by Sinan on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:11:23 AM PDT

  •  BREAKING NEWS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    John Huntsman is going to announce for a run for the presidency next Tuesday...per a couple notable news sites.

    Here's a Time article on him.  Skewed as it might be, it does speak to who he is in case you're like me and don't have a clue:

    http://www.time.com/...

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:32:30 AM PDT

  •  Should be Noted This is A First Draft (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    There will likely be some changes.

  •  state legislature (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, killjoy

    As a Californian, I'm equally interested in the state legislature to see if we have a chance to get 2/3 majorities and make Republicans irrelevant.  An analysis was done here:

    State Senate (27 needed for super-majority)
    Safe Democratic or Dem Leaning: 27
    Toss-up: 2

    State Assembly (54 needed for super-majority)
    Safe Democratic or Dem Leaning: 51
    Toss-up: 5

    It looks like the Senate is likely to get to 2/3 and we have an even chance at taking 2/3 in the Assembly.

    You have the power to change America. Yes We Can. Yes We Did. Yes We Will.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:54:26 AM PDT

  •  Former skeptic, I like the new districts (0+ / 0-)

    I was initially extremely skeptical about the new redistricting commission, since it seemed to me like the opportunity for mischief was rampant in its selection and administration. I believe I was wrong, having seen the initial maps released last week.

    The non-partisan commission has actually done very good work, IMHO. They've regrouped a lot of districts, including especially at the Assembly and Senate level, into much more logical and locally geographically-coherent areas. The borders make much more sense. It may be an upheaval for incumbents but it looks to me like at least there's going to be a lot more cohesiveness for an individual district.

    There was some concern expressed that hispanics wouldn't be able to elect as many representatives with fewer "majority" districts, but I think it's rather the opposite. With hispanic voters surging statewide, and forming now significant parts of more districts, it seems far more likely we'll have more hispanic representatives elected from "non hispanic" districts. We are in a process of mainstreaming in California, and insofar as ethnic identity politics plays a role in the electoral process, I think the long game (and the short term) will be good for hispanic voters to not only vote their own interests but to become part of each and every district in California.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:39:19 AM PDT

  •  Farr (17) Lives in Carmel (0+ / 0-)

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:41:28 AM PDT

  •  Note you do not have to live in a CD to represent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    it, by California law, you only have to live in the state. So not living in a CD doesn't necessarily preclude a rep from running to represent it, particularly a strong incumbent. I personally would prefer they live in the district....you do have odd things like the case of Lungren, where his house is outside the district he represents but his yard is in the district he represents. So if he sleeps in a tent in his yard, he's a resident...

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:45:12 AM PDT

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