NN11's host state: As blue as its flag?
As we rocket into Netroots Nation week, the weekend digest is so data-heavy that it might take until your flight departs to read it all. This week is a national poll-a-palooza, as it seemed that just about every pollster wanted to get their two cents in (the trend for the President is decidedly mixed, as you will read). We also get new statewide numbers in the Presidential sweepstakes that are worth a look, including from the host state for NN11: Minnesota. Add to that Redistmas hitting the biggest state of the Union, and it is a big week for election junkies.
Among the items on the highlight reel this week:
- No less than eight national polls, with multiple polls offering trial heat numbers for the GOP primary and the general. While there is a substantial amount of variety (Romney either leads Obama by 3...or loses to him by 13!), there are some generic themes for the week we can ascertain.
- Only one Senate poll this week, and while it would have to be considered at least a little pessimistic for Democrats, there is some cause for a modicum of hope in the fact that a guy that seemed politically inpenetrable might not be infallible, after all.
- California goes Indie. With their redistricting process, at least. The new independent redistricting coalition has given us their rough drafts, and the results mean that California election junkies (me! me!) are going to have a lot more fun on Election Night 2012 than they have on most election nights over the past decade.
All this (and more!) as we start packing for NN11 while perusing the latest in the horserace world with the weekend edition of the Digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: Apparently NBC didn't get the memo. Because they are just about the only media outfit that didn't go into the field this week to test, at a minimum, the President's standing. We get new data from 8 different pollsters this week: CNN, Fox News, Quinnipiac, PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU,, Ipsos/Reuters, CBS, ABC, and YouGov (and that's not counting the daily tracking done by both Gallup and the House of Ras). Given the volume, it might just be best to plow through the thicket in alphabetical order:
- ABC/WaPo: The ABC/WaPo poll, which came out at the beginning of the week, was the Debbie Downer of the week that sent Democrats into fits of recrimination (at least on my Twitter feed) and Republicans into drape-measuring exultation. The banner headline from the poll was that it was the first (and...ahem...only) poll of recent vintage showing President Obama trailing Republican Mitt Romney (49-46). The balance of the GOP field trailed Obama, by margins ranging from 6-15 points. Obama's approval numbers were underwater, albeit slightly, in this survey (47/49). ABC polled the GOP primary, as well, and found only Romney (22%) and Palin (17%) in double digits.
- CBS: CBS News didn't cough up any trial heats, but they did some pretty extensive analysis of the GOP field. The bottom line: this is an either unknown or unloved collection of candidates. Only two in the field (Mitt Romney and Herman Cain) were not underwater in terms of their favorabilities, and Romney was barely in positive territory at +1 (25/24). President Obama's approval numbers here had also softened a tad over the recent trendlines, landing at 48/43.
- CNN: CNN only looked at approval numbers this week, but they were notable, in that they confirmed a bit of a slide off the recent highs for President Obama. CNN had Obama at parity (48/48), a six-point slide off of the previous CNN offering, which had the President at 54%.
- Fox News: Fox News gives us a complete horse race buffet this week, and it probably qualifies as the most favorable poll for the President this week. While the President's job approval was slightly in positive territory (48/43), his trial heat numbers in the FNC poll were excellent. Obama led the field with relative ease, with only Rudy Giuliani (?!) coming within striking range (Giuliani trailed 47-43). The rest of the peanut gallery, including Romney, trailed by margins ranging from 7-21 points. The GOP primary was still paced by Romney (23%), with only Giuliani (13%) and Palin (12%) in double digits along with him.
- Ipsos/Reuters: If the ABC/WaPo poll was the primary cause for consternation for Democrats this week, the Ipsos/Reuters poll was the "all is well" counterpoint. The Ipsos/Reuters poll had the President leading all comers by double digits (Romney coming the closest at a 51-38 deficit), and his approval rating actually inching upward, to 50%. They also tested the GOP primary: as with a few others, they had Palin and Romney pacing the field. Unlike others, however, they had Palin incrementally in the lead (22-20).
- PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU: Our weekly Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation tracking poll, as always, keeps accounting of President Obama's approval numbers, and adds a generic Congressional ballot glimpse, as well. This week's edition showed President Obama's post-OBL bounce receding to a slightly underwater rating (46/48). Nevertheless, the Republicans took a bigger hit, and as a result, the Democrats actually enjoyed a narrow lead (46-43) on the generic ballot test.
- Quinnipiac: The Q poll also piled on to the recurring themes in recent polling: a softening of presidential job approval, but a continued lead over any and all GOP foes. While Q had the President's job approval nearly at parity (47/46), they also found that the President had leads of between 6-17 points over the GOP field. They also found a Romney/Palin-led GOP primary, but they deviated from some others in showing a clear leader. The Q poll had Romney up by double digits (25-15) over the former half-term Governor of Alaska.
- YouGov: YouGov's weekly offering echoed the "middling approval/big trial heat lead" meme we have seen elsewhere, as well. What made YouGov's offering this week somewhat interesting is that they went outside the box for their trial heat numbers. Rather than the traditional Romney/Palin/Gingrich nums, they selected Rick Perry (43-33), Rick Santorum (48-30), and Jon Huntsman (43-32) as their choices. As you can see, Obama doesn't really struggle with any of them, though GOPers would not that Perry and Huntsman do keep him well below the 50% threshold. Obama's approval with this all-internet panel was 45/48, in range with other pollsters this week.
IN THE STATES: Meanwhile, our polling partners at PPP provide us with the trio of state-level polls on the Presidential race we were treated to this week. They hit on a mildly red state (South Carolina; McCain +9 in 2008), a mildly-to-solidly blue state (Minnesota; Obama +10 in 2008), and a not-very-close blue state where the GOP frontrunner was the Gov (Massachusetts; Obama +230,122 in 2008).
South Carolina does an excellent job of underscoring the racial divide in the American South. President Obama has 94% job approval with black voters in the Palmetto State, but just 24% support among whites. The net result is underwater approval numbers (43/53), but narrow leads over everyone not named Mitt Romney. Romney leads by a margin similar to that enjoyed by McCain in 2008 (50-41). Home stater (and unlikely candidate) Jim DeMint also leads (47-44), and Tim Pawlenty holds Obama to a draw (42-42). The other GOP candidates trail the President by a 2-5 point margin. Despite that fact, it is pretty difficult to consider this a potential pickup for the Democrats, given the terrain. As the GOP coalesces around one person, the expectation would be a modest-but-likely win for the red team here. PPP also tested the important early GOP primary here. In a reversal of the traditional order of things here, Huckabee's exit has clearly helped out the Mittster. Romney now leads Palin by nine (27-18), with Gingrich and Cain tied for third at 12%.
The converse is true in Minnesota, where Obama's approval numbers were decent (51%), and his margin over the GOP field ranged from 8-21 points. Only home stater Tim Pawlenty kept our NN11 home base within single digits, as even Mitt Romney performed worse (51-36) than McCain did here in 2008. The primary numbers were released last week, and showed Pawlenty with a huge lead over fellow MN native Michele Bachmann.
Finally, there is Massachusetts, which is primarily of interest because it gave Mitt Romney a national platform when it elected him Governor in 2002. Romney would certainly dominated any GOP primary here, but his currency in the general election is limited. He trailed Obama by 20 points in the PPP poll (57-37). The nicest thing you can say about him in this poll is that he outpaced the rest of the GOP field easily. The rest of the peanut gallery trailed here by 31-36 points.
There was one non-PPP poll that got released this week, though you had to look hard for it. Buried in a Roll Call article about the shifting demographics in Georgia, we find that a local GOP pollster checked the pulse of the Peach State in May. Surprisingly, said pollster found Barack Obama actually up by four points in Georgia over Mitt Romney (43-39).
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: For most of the 2012 cycle, newly-elected Republican Scott Brown (MA) has appeared to be ten foot tall and bulletproof, from an electoral standpoint. His poll numbers have been monstrous, and even in-state Democrat have (incredibly obnoxiously) testified to his formidable position for the upcoming elections. New numbers from PPP confirmed this to a small extent, but also provided the first fibers of contradictory evidence.
Brown's job approval has finally dropped out of the stratosphere, with the Republican rookie sitting at 48/36. Still solid, and probably good enough, but a distinct drop from the +20 and greater favorability spreads we have seen in other surveys.
Having said that, Brown still laps the Democratic field, more or less. The woman he vanquished in the winter of 2010 (state AG Martha Coakley) actually comes closest, trailing Brown by a 49-40 margin. Against other luminaries not expected to run, the margin is similar. Against the small handful of candidates that have made their intentions known, the lead is wider (but largely a function of name recognition).
The most intriguing name not tested? Governor Deval Patrick, who is suddenly beloved in his home state, and posts better approval numbers than Brown. However, he has repeatedly insisted that he isn't running, though Democrats probably hope these very amenable approval numbers make him reconsider.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Speaking of Deval Patrick...while it doesn't seem likely that he'll be parachuting into the Massachusetts Senate race any time soon, his former Chief of Staff, Doug Rubin, had some strong words for the Democrats who have been singing the praises of Brown and his electoral prowess:
If Democratic Party officials in D.C. have a preferred candidate, let us know who it is and get him or her up here to start doing the hard work it will take to win.
Talk right now is not only cheap, it’s hurting our chances of winning this Senate seat in 2012. Democratic Party leaders in D.C. need to go all in, or get out of the way.
Rubin's anger, though he doesn't mention them by name, would be directed not only at national party types, but several Massachusetts officeholders (Barney Frank and John Olver come to mind) that have downgraded Democratic chances against Brown.
- Meanwhile, the underwhelming field of Republicans vying to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida might be getting bigger. Apparently, Craig Miller, who (in an upset) lost a GOP primary in 2010 in FL-24, is flirting with a run. Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse, would bring the benefit of self-funding, in all likelihood.
- Another place where Republicans are casting about for a candidate is in Pennsylvania, to take on freshman Democrat Bob Casey. Dan Hirschhorn over at Politico is hearing two names being mentioned: newly elected Lt. Governor Jim Cawley, and self-funding businessman Keith Loiselle.
- Two potentially fascinating candidates also emerged this week...for 2014. In Montana, the buzz is that popular Governor Brian Schweitzer might take a hard look at running for the Senate. The intrigue here, of course, is that to do so, he would have to offer a Democratic primary challenge to longtime incumbent Max Baucus. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the prospective candidate is Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Booker would also be looking at a Dem-held seat, though there is an elevated likelihood that it will be an open seat, as Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg will be celebrating his 90th birthday during the 2014 cycle.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE POLLSTHE MAPS: As will probably be the case throughout the summer, polling data takes a backseat this week to redistricting data. And the big prize came out this week: California. With an independent redistricting commission now drawing the maps, as opposed to legislative action, there was the promise of dramatic changes to the Congressional delegation. And, indeed, there was. Perhaps the biggest surprise, however, was that the changes from the 2001 Dem-controlled maps actually look to yield additional districts for the Democrats. If anything, this would appear to be a sign of how crappy the 2001 "gerrymander" was for the Dems, compared to the artistry displayed by leges in other states. As you would expect, the crew at Daily Kos Elections (particularly David Jarman and Jeffmd) have been all over the new maps, and have already started crunching the numbers. One can be certain that there will be more to come.
Aside from California, the news on the redistricting front this week was fairly limited. A three-judge panel in Maine affirmed that federal redistricting there cannot be delayed, so we will have maps to move the roughly 5000 voters in the whole state that need to be shifted. Governor Bentley of Alabama took time away from leading the charge on anti-immigrant cheerleading to sign his state's maps into law (and probably solidifying the state's 6-1 GOP delegation to the House in the process). And Anthony Weiner's self-inflicted implosion has led to speculation that he now moves to the top of the list in terms of incumbents losing their districts in New York, which must shed two seats.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The biggest headlines in House news this week, aside from the redistricting news, came from the news that two Democratic incumbents are planning to take their talents
to South Beach elsewhere in 2013. In a bit of a surprise, thirty-something Democrat Dan Boren is retiring rather than seek re-election in OK-02. While a retirement in a red Dem district like the 2nd (McCain won here with nearly two-thirds of the vote) would normally spell instant pickup for the GOP, the Dems have apparently drawn as good a replacement candidate as they can hope for. Brad Carson, who represented the region in the House until an unsuccessful bid in 2004, looks to regain the seat. Expect a host of Republicans to jump in, with state legislator George Faught already sounding out a bid. Meanwhile, another seat opened up this week with the news that Bob Filner is leaving his long-held perch in CA-51 to seek the mayor's office in his native San Diego. It didn't take long for a replacement to emerge in this reliably Democratic area: Juan Vargas, a state legislator who attempted to primary Filner on multiple occasions, leaped into the race immediately.
- There was actually one poll released this week, in the forthcoming special election in CA-36. Well, at least the poll was kinda...sorta...released. Politico got wind that Democratic polling has the race between Democrat Janice Hahn and Republican Craig Huey reasonably close, in the five-point range. Absent any other information, this smells a little bit to me like a "don't get complacent" leak on the part of the Dems, trying to guard against any letdown as they head into next month's runoff. Although, as a counterpoint, it has to be noted that the Hahn campaign did go on the air this week.
- In another poll (of sorts), new numbers out of NH-02 painted a bleak picture for Republican incumbent Charlie Bass. According to the survey conducted for Dem activist groups PCCC and DFA, Bass was sitting on an abysmal 29% approval rating. The poll did not apparently test a head-to-head against likely (and 2010) Democratic foe Anne Kuster, however.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
THE POLLS: Only one poll this week at the gubernatorial level, but it was a beaut for the Democrats. Out of Kentucky came the first post-primary poll between Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear and GOP nominee David Williams. The poll, by Braun Research for CN|2, paints the picture of a blowout. Beshear held a 51-30 lead over the Republican challenger, with perennial Indie candidate Gatewood Galbraith notched 6% of the vote. Beshear is cruising with high favorabilities in the state, and his resource advantage allows him to have the airwaves to himself right now, as Williams retools after limping out of the GOP primary there.
SurveyUSA also offered a bit of an odd poll out of Washington, where they polled a generic gubernatorial ballot. This is odd, of course, because both parties already have pretty clearly defined (or, at least, heavily rumored) candidates. In the generic ballot, Democrats enjoyed a 46-45 lead over the GOP. SUSA has already polled the actual candidates, however, and Republican Rob McKenna actually led the potential Democratic candidates in that survey.
Lastly, one 2014 state was polled this week: South Carolina. Rookie Governor Nikki Haley (R) was fair-to-middling in the poll. She had near-parity in her job approvals (42/41), but in better news for the incumbent, she still led 2010 rival (and possible 2014 Dem nominee) Vincent Sheheen by a six-point margin (48-42) in a "do-over" scenario.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Speaking of Rob McKenna, he got a high-profile endorsement this week in Washington when Congressman Dave Reichert offered his support. This was significant, in part, because Reichert had been oft-rumored to be flirting with a statewide bid.
- Coming on the heels of Chris Christie managing to totally embarrass himself by using a helicopter and a chauffered car (for 100 yards!) to go to a high school ballgame, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett got caught in another lovable tale of fiscal conservatism. Corbett is now tooling around in a new car, as are his Lt. Governor and their spouses. The total price tag? Just shy of $200,000. His excuse? He didn't ask for the cars.
- Finally, we close with a simple statement, as opposed to an extensive analysis: in Missouri, likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Peter Kinder is so, so screwed. When your own party loyalists bash you over the head like this? Goodnight, sweet prince.