Visual source: Newseum
Norm Ornstein:
Economic malaise is certainly disastrous for an incumbent, particularly when the best policy to rectify the problems (more stimulus) is off the table and a potentially destructive alternative (sharp budget cuts) is coming alive at precisely the wrong time. Things could get far worse before they start getting better.
But there is another indicator of Obama’s prospects, one that may boost his chances in the key swing states that will determine the 2012 electoral majority: the deep and growing unpopularity of the Republican governors and state legislatures.
We noted the same thing.
USA Today/Gallup says Romney's the front runner. Duh.
"Romney has had a good six months, solidifying himself as the front-runner" and blasting Obama on the economy as disappointing jobless numbers were released, says Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who ran Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996 . "He has shaped up to be the 800-pound gorilla in New Hampshire."
Wow, Romney is in the lead!!! Stop the presses! More, same source:
The poll of 851 Republican and Republican-leaning independents, taken Wednesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
Romney's support stands at 24%, up 7 percentage points compared with a survey three weeks earlier. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who hasn't indicated whether she will run for president, is at 16%. If she doesn't run, Romney's support bumps up to 27%.
In some ways, Romney's standing is fragile. Only three in 10 Romney supporters say they are certain to back him. In contrast, more than half of Palin's supporters are certain to support her. Making the case that he's the strongest candidate against Obama looms as key: Six in 10 of his supporters say that's more important than agreeing on issues.
As far as polling goes, Pawlenty doesn't exist and neither does Huntsman. If they want to be the anti-Romney, they'd better step it up, or they may as well give it up.
Different poll, this one for NH, has Romney slaying everyone else:
With seven GOP contenders gathering to debate for the first time in New Hampshire tomorrow night, a Globe poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center confirmed that Mitt Romney continues to hold a commanding lead over his Republican rivals, although the great majority of likely voters said they remain undecided.
But it is the slow-to-recover economy, more than the emerging primary race, that is uppermost in the minds of New Hampshire voters.
New Hampshireites believe in global warming, want taxes raised on the rich (73-24) and on corporations (68-26) to reduce the deficit, want to drill offshore, and think the Republicans are more responsible for the lousy economy than the Democrats (by 35-22.)
Meanwhile from pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal:
Notice, however, that this chart includes the bold, black HuffPost Pollster standard trend line. This estimate is an analysis of all available polls using local regression, a statistical procedure that creates a smoothed line when data points are scattered. The line is designed to resist "chasing" noise in poll results (which may sometimes be the result of random sampling error or "house effects" and differences in methodology rather than real movement in the polls).
In this case, the trend line appears to mostly ignore the apparent spike in many of these surveys in mid-May and indicates a continuing upward trend. Five of six most recent polls (again, all but Reuters/Ipsos) now plot just below the trend line.
Mark Blumenthal notes that the economic situation may well spark further decline. Or not. Depends who the public blames. In any case, note that the trend is up.
No poll, just wisdom from Paul Krugman:
Every once in a while a politician comes up with an idea that’s so bad, so wrongheaded, that you’re almost grateful. For really bad ideas can help illustrate the extent to which policy discourse has gone off the rails.
And so it was with Senator Joseph Lieberman’s proposal, released last week, to raise the age for Medicare eligibility from 65 to 67