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Senate:

CT-Sen: A local division of the UAW endorsed Chris Murphy in his bid for the Democratic Senate nomination, a move which Murphy's camp described as the "first statewide organized labor union" getting involved in the race.

FL-Sen: Despite running one of the bumbling-est early campaigns this cycle, GOPer Mike Haridopolos has been racking up a string of big-name endorsements. The latest comes from Ag. Commish (and ex-Rep.) Adam Putnam, though I'm really unclear as to why he likes Haridopolos. Perhaps he's just the only person at the intersection of "really conservative" and "sufficiently establishment" at this point.

IN-Sen: Back in March, Gov. Mitch Daniels refused to offer an official endorsement in the GOP Senate primary. Now the man who wants to succeed him, Rep. Mike Pence, is saying he won't decide between Sen. Richard Lugar and Treasurer Richard Mourdock, either.

MI-Sen: Republicans claim they are recruiting a former NHL player to run against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but won't say who. All we're told is that he's a former Detroit Red Wing, he's Canadian by birth but is now a U.S. citizen, and he isn't Steve Yzerman. Michigan native Dana Houle tries to suss out who it could be, but has been getting shut out so far. Any guesses, sports fans?

Meanwhile, former state GOP chief Saul Anuzis (who twice failed in bids for the chairmanship of the RNC) is a healthy scratch. Anuzis, who would have been skating with the third line at best, says he won't run for the Republican nod.

NJ-Sen: Over in the Garden State, a former Republican chair is doing the opposite: state Sen. Joe Kyrillos is apparently forming an exploratory committee to weight a challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez.

Gubernatorial:

NC-Gov: A sign of hope for Gov. Bev Perdue? She just vetoed a Republican-passed budget that features deep cuts to education, a plan which PPP finds is deeply unpopular in North Carolina. Republicans are helping to keep the issue alive by attempting an over-ride of the veto, but they'll need help from some Democrats.

VA-Gov: Former DNC chair and 2009 gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe says he's "interested" in giving the race another try in 2013.

House:

AL-06: Charles Dean of the Birmingham News says that state Sen. Scott Beason could issue a primary challenge to Rep. Spencer Bachus next year. You may remember Beason as the guy who tried and failed to push through a redistricting plan that would have put fellow Republican lawmaker Cam Ward's senate district outside the 6th CD, but I guess Ward's continued presence in the 6th is not a deterrent.

CA-06: Alex Isenstadt notes that state Sen. Noreen Evans, who had been interested in succeeding the possibly retiring Lynn Woolsey, has seen her hometown of Santa Rosa largely moved outside of Woolsey's district under the draft maps released last week. Isenstadt says this is probably a boon for fellow Dem Assemblyman Jared Huffman, who hails from Marin County.

CA-36: Bill Clinton is sending out a fundraising email for Janice Hahn, and though he won't be doing any events in the district, the way The Hill frames it, it sounds like the Hahn campaign wishes he could. This race is starting to feel just a touch like the Niki Tsongas 2007 special election in MA-05.

CA-East San Gabriel Valley-Covina: Man, if California actually sticks with these Canadian riding-style names, I think my hand is going to fall off eventually. Anyhow, freshman Assemblyman Roger Hernandez, who was once the youngest mayor of West Covina, says he plans to seek this seat, "should these lines stay put." Hernandez also fired off a shot against would-be carpetbaggers, stating that "anyone who is thinking of carpetbagging in this district, they need not apply." Could that come back to bite him if the lines change but another district still looks appealing? One side note: ESGV-C is, at the moment, home to GOP Rep. David Dreier.

IL-08, IL-11: Two Democrats who are interested in running in newly redrawn districts just rolled out lists of endorsements, Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 8th and Bill Foster in the 11th. Among other possibilities, Foster could face businessman John Atkinson in a primary, while 2006 IL-06 candidate Tammy Duckworth is supposedly considering a run in the 8th. Indeed, Duckworth just submitted her resignation to the Department of Veterans Affairs, where she served as Assistant Secretary of Public and Intergovernmental Affairs since 2009.

OK-02: We've been given a partial look at a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling on behalf of the campaign of Brad Carson, taken June 8 through 10. Carson, you'll recall, is seeking his old seat back in the wake of fellow Democrat Dan Boren's retirement. We don't have the cross-tabs for this new poll, but we do have the toplines. The tests pit Carson against ex-state Sen. Ken Corn in a primary, and both men against GOP state Rep. George Faught in the general.

Brad Carson (D): 43
Ken Corn (D): 24
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Brad Carson (D): 43
George Faught (R): 35

Ken Corn (D): 37
George Faught (R): 36
(MoE: ±3.0%)

PA-11: Wilkes-Barre attorney William Vinsko says he's considering a challenge to freshman GOPer Lou Barletta.

Other Races:

WI Recall: God bless you, Alberta Darling. The GOP state senator was always going to be one of our toughest targets in the recall elections, but she just handed state Rep. Sandy Pasch some seriously weapons-grade fodder:

Asked by an attendee at the fundraiser what she thinks of Ryan’s plan, Darling scoffs at Dem efforts to make Ryan a liability. “They were trying to tie me to Ryan and thought that would be a negative for me,” she says. “I’m standing with Ryan — anytime, anywhere.”

“Go Paul Ryan!” Darling adds. “He’s absolutely a hero!”

Grab Bag:

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, a favorite of many in the progressive blogosphere (myself included) just gave what Blue Virginia describes as a "very well-received" speech at the Arlington County Jefferson-Jackson dinner this past weekend. Videos are at the link, but an excerpt:

Perriello said he has "no regrets," that he was "proud to support a stimulus which prevented a Great Depression... energy independence legislation and I wanted that to be stronger... and health care reform and I wanted that to be stronger too." A great line by Tom...: "Taking a good idea and cutting it in half doesn't make it a better idea."

Redistricting Roundup:

Wisconsin: Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has gotten ahold of a leaked Republican congressional map "whose main features were confirmed by sources in both parties." Here is a direct link to the PDF, but even more helpful is this image, which overlays the proposed district lines on top of the existing borders. The principal feature of this plan is to shore up GOP freshman Sean Duffy (the side-effect of which is also to give Dem Rep. Ron Kind a bluer district). But click the first link for Gilbert's lengthy analysis. Also, commenter glame recreated the new map in Dave's Redistricting App and came up with this set of Obama/McCain numbers.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Brad Carson would be a pretty big upgrade (13+ / 0-)

    from Dan Boren. Probably about as good as it gets from OK.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:04:59 AM PDT

  •  Encouraging numbers for Carson (12+ / 0-)

    Obviously the field isn't nearly set yet and this House races tend to swing a lot, but it's heartening to see the Democrat start out with a modest lead.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:19:33 AM PDT

  •  Seriously? Duffy? (10+ / 0-)

    The first-term whiner who made a gaffe so big that it puts him squarely in Fred Heineman territory, and is sitting in a mostly Iron Range district with innate Democratic parts that you just can't get rid of? And they left Paul Ryan alone?

    Wow. If this map is for real, for once the Fitzgeralds' stupidity works to our advantage. This seems too good to be true. Are they really THAT arrogant to think that Ryan can survive in a mostly white district with a D PVI in a presidential year?

    •  Fred Heineman! ROFL (5+ / 0-)

      There's a name that doesn't get mentioned often enough.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:31:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  RIP Fred Heineman (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, atdnext, bear83, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        I just looked up good ole Fred to refresh my memory about him and Fred passed away in 2010 i just realized.

        Fred was one of those Republicans who insisted he was lower middle class because he only earned in the vicinity of 183,000$ a year.  He then stated up to 750,000$ a year was middle class.

        No wonder Fred was a one term wonder, lol.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:14:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Heineman was my Congress-critter (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        walja, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        for one term. He and David Funderburk were quite a pair 'representing' the Triangle - swept in the '94 wave, and back out in '96.

        There should never be a tax benefit for companies that screw over American workers.

        by bear83 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:45:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I expected the GOP to buttress Duffy (5+ / 0-)

      If you look at what they did with Ron Kind's and Sean Duffy's district changes,  what the GOP is doing, at least in part, is moving Pat Kreitlow, the Dem challenger to Sean Duffy, centered in Chippewa Falls, into Ron Kind's district.  Technically I cannot be certain without the Ward data, but the map truly does appear to shift Pat into Kind's congressional district.

      Everything I heard has suggested that from the start the focus of the GOP efforts was Duffy's CD and that Kreitlow's Chippewa Falls vicinity was the epicenter of GOP focus.  Paul Ryan was never the locus of GOP redistricting attention.

      What I found interesting was buried at the end of that article is that some of the territory added to Gwen Moore's CD appears to include territory presently in Alberta Darling's current Senate district ( esp Whitefish Bay).

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:07:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Iron Range (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      That isn't usually a term used for northern Wisconsin. There are small deposits of taconite there, but there is no "iron range" in Wisconsin, really. Just FYI.

      •  Unfortunately, Wisconsin may soon have a mine (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        walja, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        This article explains the Republican plan to open a huge open-pit mine in northern Wisconsin, supposedly creating thousands of jobs but also ruining the environment. Just one more of Fitzwalkerstan's bright ideas.

        •  i am an environmentalist (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, Bob R Bobson, dc1000, gabjoh

          But the whole stigma attached to open pit mining is really overblown. Particularly with leeching with mercury being illegal. And the empty pits after the mines shut down make some of the most gorgeous lakes you will ever see in your life. If people are serious about "buy American" (i am one of these people) then you have to support mining. I imagine that this mine would be really popular with politicians and the general population in the area.

          •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bob R Bobson, dc1000, gabjoh

            Mining has generally been managed very well in Montana and up in Canada (eh). It's in the Appalachians, where mountaintops are decapitated almost as a matter of routine in the hopes of unearthing more coal and resource extraction processes (like fracking) are extremely messy and potentially hazardous to human health, that the environmentalist in me kicks in and says it's a bridge too far.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:52:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  mountain top removal leeching and fracking (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG, gabjoh, SaoMagnifico

              Those 3 are devastating. But open pit mining and shaft mining to not destroy mountains or poison water supplies.

            •  Northern Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

              is tourist territory.  Who takes a vaction to view an open pit mine and creeks clogged with pollution?

              Scott Walker is not just pushing the open pit mine, he is kneecapping the DNR simultaneously so that the environment is an after thought rather  than a focus of attention.

              The assumption that Scott Walker's government will protect the environment from corporate degradation is laughable.

              The lure of jobs does not always benefit the locals, and no fiscal impact studies show Northern Wisconsin will benefit.  The mine will just attract more job seekers who will burden social services, and the jobs are as or more likely to go those in migrating as to locals.

              "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

              by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:29:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  i think your heart is in the right place (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                But really, northern Wisconsin is the same kind of tourist area that northern Minnesota and the UP are. There are literal hundreds of iron mines in northern Minnesota, and that certainly does not detract from tourism. And in 50 year when the taconite is gone, you will have one of the best northern, muskie, and lake trout fishing lakes in Wisconsin. And iron mines are hardly eye sores. Do a giggle image search for "iron pit lake" and you will see what I mean.

                •  did Scott Walker's (0+ / 0-)

                  DNR oversee those projects?  Hmmmm.  Thought not.

                  If you believe that Scott Walker and the Republicans care a whit about the quality of the land around that mine, before or after mining, you are mistaken.

                  Scott Walker is busy giving away out rights, our property, our government, our tax monies, and our heritage for the future away to corporate America.

                  There was a reason Scott Walker took the fake Koch brothers phone call so quickly, he represents Charles and David Koch in Wisconsin, and everyone else in the state just smells badly.

                  So until Wisconsin recommits to protecting the environment, I will oppose any efforts to do anything that so much as disturbs an ant hill.  

                  Scott Walker cannot be trusted, period.

                  "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                  by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:18:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Minnesota's mines (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh, SaoMagnifico

                    The vast majority were built before environmental considerations existed. Iron mining simply is not as toxic as coal mining, silver mining, or uranium mining. And the companies that would be building the mines would most lint be established mining firms. They would build and extract using industry standards, as it is cheaper to have uniform processes across your company.

    •  What they're trying to do around Milwaukee... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, James Allen

      is to 1) isolate the ultravioletblue Milwaukee vote into Gwen Moore's district and 2) mix most of the rest of it with the sub/ex-urban rouge red to balance out to three barely majority red districts.

      I'm hoping this really backfires.  In a wave year, we could get a flip from barely red to blue, and they don't have a solid red except for Sensenbrenner.

      RECOUNT. Recall - We did it!! VOTE against the frauds, then VOTE TO TAKE WISCONSIN BACK!!! Rescind. Rebuild. Now with more voting, thanks to republican dirty tricks.

      by stcroix cheesehead on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:57:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Petri's District (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Is not going Democratic for the foreseeable future. Even if he retires.

      •  from a purely personal standpoint (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, walja

        I would go from James F Senslessbrenner to Gwen Moore. That is change I can embrace!

      •  Kind(3) and Petri(6) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gpack3

        are put in district's that are safe for them individually, at least in part, because the districts are impossible to campaign in and ungodly expensive to advertise to. Any opponent to Petri must face having parts of the district in each of Wisconsin's three largest media markets. Kind's district is split among a slew of small markets with little natural interaction--La Crosse, Eau Claire, Central Wisconsin, Platteville. Who would replace either individual would have to be a problem for either side of the aisle. I thought Kreitlow's email said that he was personally in the 7th, but only by a hair, and much of his prior district was out. The 2nd and the 8th look to be relatively inexpensive and easy to approach with a campaign, which could allow Baldwin to spread the wealth if she does not vacuum it all up for her own statewide purposes.

  •  How is overlaying the WI map (4+ / 0-)

    with the existing borders helpful? You mean you guys don't have them permanently seared into your memory? :P

  •  California pols... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, MichaelNY, James Allen

    Since the draft maps were released, we've had three Latino Dems (Tony Cardenas, Gloria Negrete McLeod, now Roger Hernandez) plant their flag on new districts (East SFV, Ontario-Pomona, East SGV-Covina) that are, of course, only in the draft stages. Given Latino groups' objection to the elimination of an East L.A. seat, there are likely to be some big changes to the California map, particularly in L.A. County. But such are the realities of redistricting and "getting there first," I expect. Look at Illinois: Krishnamoorthi and Foster wasted no time announcing, and Quinn hasn't even said whether he'll sign the map yet.

    As for OK-02, a little reminiscing...I joined this site back in 2004, after several months of lurking when I was just 13 years old! Remember when we all thought Carson was going to beat Tom Coburn? "Coburn is too extreme for Oklahoma," kos would say. Sigh...

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:30:31 AM PDT

    •  don't forget Imperial Valley/SD (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      Juan Carlos Vargas has announced for what was once mostly  Bob Filner's seat (old CD 51).

      So at least 4 latin pols.  have jumped immediately into the fray.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:19:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  is it just me (0+ / 0-)

        or did Vargas challenge Filner in the Dem primary in 2006? Can't imagine there's much love lost between those two, though Filner, and everyone else, knows Vargas is odds-on for the new Imperial/San Diego seat.

        The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

        by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:00:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, he did... (0+ / 0-)

          And apparently they hate each other.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:17:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Vargas primary challenge (0+ / 0-)

          Juan Carlos Vargas has challenged Bob Filner in primaries 3x in the past, not just in 2010.

          I kinda hope he faces a serious primary challenge from the left, from what I have read Vargas reminds me of an Hispanic version of Albert Wynn.

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:32:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  But the map will probably have to be changed... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Because it denies Orange County a Latino seat, and because of the LA problems you mentioned. It seems the commission didn't pay too much attention to the VRA. That must change, or else this whole map will be struck down in court.

      •  Thankfully the process allows fixing it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The commission, as I understand it, takes public input in response to this map, then plays with it.  Assuming they're not stupid, I presume bringing VRA problems to their attention is enough to get them to realize they have to fix that.  It doesn't surprise me if they overlooked VRA stuff up front, that's a wrinkle I can picture them forgetting in the midst of all they're juggling, especially since this is the first time ever for this new process.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:11:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mystery Red Wing (9+ / 0-)

    In order for this to be a credible candidate, the mystery Red Wing has to be someone with instant name recognition amongst Detroiters, but the Canadian-born thing makes it difficult.  Brian Rafalski is the obvious choice (it is reported that he listens to Glenn Beck), but he was born in Dearborn.  Patrick Eaves fits the citizenship thing, but he's a current Red Wing.  

    So while I can't find any sources saying that either of them have become US citizens, I'll guess that the candidate is one of two retired members of the Grind Line - Kirk Maltby and Darren McCarthy, with Maltby being more likely.  They were born in Canada but both reside in Michigan (Grosse Pointe and Clawson, respectively).  

    The same logic could also indicate Chris Osgood, a longtime goalie who is a current Red Wing but expected to retire this year.  

    Republican, MI-09, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:45:54 AM PDT

    •  agreed (0+ / 0-)

      Maltby was my first choice, too, but I think McCarty's DUI wouldn't torpedo him, either. I don't know about whether Draper is going to hang it up for next year--he'd be an obvious chioce, too.

      •  Mystery Red Wing (0+ / 0-)

        Maltby is the only one I could think of as well. In addition to the DUI, I think McCarty's financial problems from a few years ago would be an issue for him. It sounds like Draper and Osgood both want to continue playing.

    •  I don't know how credible (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think I would consider a random hockey player to be a credible candidate.  Name recognition is the only thing that makes this a possibility.  Being a successful candidate requires more than name recognition though.  It reminds me of when the Dems mentioned Joe Dumars during the last governors race.  

  •  At least 4 of the 5 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    melvynny, MichaelNY

    Dems who voted for the budget say they will support an override. So, it looks like it'll pass in NC.

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:13:18 AM PDT

  •  Estimated PVI of the Wisconsin districts (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stcroix cheesehead, MichaelNY, walja

    WI-1: R+3

    WI-2: D+16

    WI-3: D+6

    WI-4: D+20

    WI-5: R+13

    WI-6: R+5

    WI-7: R+1

    WI-8: EVEN

    I just took the base Obama numbers, and then added one R point to each (as the PVI of Wisconsin was 2% to the right in 2004 compared to the nation as a whole).  

    Overall, this seems like an okay map for the Republicans in a neutral year, although in a bad year like 2006 or 2008 they'd probably lose 1-3 seats.  I'm surprised they didn't try and cut up WI-5 a bit more to make several safe Republican districts.  

    •  the lines would be terribly ugly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TofG

      Baconmander territory. That sort of thing goes against Midwestern sensibilities.

    •  it bewilders me (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, itskevin, gabjoh

      when gerrymandering state legislators leave a huge vote-sink for their party in place. But the reason is almost always the same...in this case, Sensenbrenner probably wanted to keep his seat deep-red, and made that known to would-be successors in Madison.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:59:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This raises a larger point on redistricting (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, sawolf, gabjoh

        All the pundit analyses I've read all year on redistricting completely miss this monkey wrench in the process:  incumbent protection.

        On the surface, one wouldn't think that in a state with one-party control, majority party incumbent protection is inconsistent with maximizing the same party's gains.

        But we're seeing that it is, in fact, inconsistent.

        Sensenbrenner refusing to give up some Republican areas is one example.

        California another, where the commission is producing a map giving us more seats than the Dem-controlled gerrymander gave us last time, or would have done this time.  The rub is that some of our incumbent Dems go bye-bye.  That's the thing that would've prevented an optimal gerrymander, but taking that away, we're left with demographics controlling the outcome and ironcially, because of California being what it is, giving us even larger gains.

        This is something that even the campaign journalism trade has missed in its writings this year.  I don't see Cook or Rothenberg or their staffs writing about this.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:19:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good point, this is hardly ever talked about (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          borodino21, MichaelNY

          In 2001, Tauscher complained her district was getting too blue, but every other Dem wanted bluer and bluer seats, so they didn't have to campaign.

          I'm certain the same would have been true this year without the commission, especially because some seats had to move inland.  The grotesque tentacle shapes of the districts would have been made not to increase Dem members, but to protect each individual current member.  Two more Dem seats would have been the max if the DEms were in control, with the commission it should be four or more, but certainly more than two.

          http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

          by tommypaine on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:53:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Wis CD 5 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      While I understand your puzzlement about why CD5 was left so Republican, the answer lies in who holds the seat.

      James Sensenbrenner is the occupant of CD5 and he has been a pit bull defending the integrity of his CD during redistricting.  Given his influence in the state GOP, and his long tenure the GOP chose not to ruffle his feathers.  Jim Sensenbrenner can be quite the ass when he is unhappy and the GOP chose not to poke this bear with a stick.

      The infamous GOP stronghold of Waukesha County resides in CD5 also.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:22:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  With the current climate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, James Allen

      I think Duffy and Ribble would fall under these lines, if Obama is winning the state by 10+ points like PPP's latest poll of the state indicates, and with the Paul Ryan budget as ammo.

      There's a lot of time to go, though, an if the Democrats fumble on Medicare and the generic ballot heads back towards even these districts could probably hold up.

      •  Ryan himself should be vulnerable. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, MichaelNY

        Taking him out would be quite a coup.

        "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:05:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  i would be shocked if he got voted out (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, MichaelNY

          His constituentsike him, and his district is more or less the same.

          •  It's a close district (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, walja, MichaelNY

            and his plan is immensely unpopular, I'd imagine that isn't any different in his district.

            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:16:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  incumbents matter (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dc1000, MichaelNY

              If you look at pvi, or other elections, there are a lot of districts that should not be hospitable to their incumbents, but they are often reelected by wide margins. Mark Kirk in IL-10, Mike Castle in DE-AL, Mike Ross in AR-4, Jim Matheson in UT-2.  So long as these people, and others like them continue to win, it is hard to argue that someone like Paul Ryan is in danger.

              •  if they are personally popular. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                If Ryan can be tarnished by the Ryan plan, he'd be vulnerable.  I mean, he wrote the thing, it should be easier to drag him down with it than attacking someone who just voted for it, or said they would.

                "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:26:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I'm not sure I'd say he's vulnerable now, (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TofG, James Allen, HoosierD42, MichaelNY

                but he could be. His district clearly isn't averse to voting for Democrats, and as I said below, he hasn't been challenged. If it's a bad year for Republicans in Wisconsin, particularly because of the Ryan plan, and his district doesn't become any more Republican, it's not at all hard to believe that Democrats could win his seat if they give him a serious challenge.

              •  Why do people like Gene Taylor lose, then? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                Sure, it's not a 100% fair comparison, and Taylor's defeat was a freak occurrence. However, a defeat of Ryan would also be a freak occurrence.

                There's no reason to write off anyone in a swing or lean district as perpetually safe (barring, of course, the usual scandal exception).

                Under bad circumstances, an incumbent's personal appeal can only take them so far. And I'd be interested in seeing whether Ryan's emergence as an important partisan figure has tarnished that local appeal he has.

                Dems should be willing to take a chance and see whether anything sticks to Ryan; but if the D candidate in his district doesn't catch fire, if attacks on Medicare are ineffective, or if Ryan is just too strong, pouring more resources in for symbolism's sake would be foolish.

                Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

                by Bob R Bobson on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:42:49 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  he was in a district that Obama (0+ / 0-)

                  got like a quarter of the vote in.  

                  "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                  by James Allen on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:09:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The comparison is way off (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Ryan is in a pinkish district that got redder.  Taylor was in a blood red district.

                  They didn't help Ryan as much as they could, but holding him under 55% will be a major acomplishment.

                  Ribble and Duffy, in that order, should be the targets.  Ryan would be a very, very distant third.  (No one may even bother to run against Petri.)

                  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

                  by tommypaine on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:57:45 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  difference (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                Ryan probably had very low negatives going into this year and as bj says below, he has not had to face a well-funded opponent. Now he's the face of a plan that is likely unpopular in most parts of his district, and the Dem base should be highly motivated given what happened in WI this winter. I would guess that Ryan will still win but by a narrow margin, but he'll have to spend a lot more money than normal.

                SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:49:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Paul Ryan is vulnerable (4+ / 0-)

                1. Paul Ryan's campaign skills are rusty even if his bank account is overflowing with insurance money.

                For a decade now the Democrats have nominated people who circulated nomination papers and voted on election day, and did little between the two events to actually win an election.

                2. The problem with your point OGGoldy is that you make no reference to quality of opponents for the Incumbents you name.  Mark Kirk I know faced Dan Seals so his district saw significant competition and is not comparable to Ryan's district.  Paul Ryan faced Dr. Jeffery Thomas in three of those elections and he never did a thing to defeat Ryan, including raising money and running ads on Television.

                3. The Wisconsin electorate in near total polarization in Wisconsin.  The Reagan Democrats have finally come home and a heck of a lot of them live in Paul Ryan's district.  His district contains most of the area that once held Wisconsin's car manufacturing in both Rock and Kenosha counties.

                4. Voter's remorse has set in.  Walker's numbers are now under water at 43 - 57.  Mike Tate, state Dem Chair, announced the recalls would be a referendum on the Walker/RYAN plan, not just collective bargaining rights.  Not being a Wisconsin resident OGGoldy you cannot truly understand the power of that message in Wisconsin at the moment.  Paul Ryan has no where to hide in 2012 he is an Ayn Rand disciple exposed with no clothes.

                "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 12:06:42 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  He hasn't really been challenged, though. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            Why, I am not sure, but if you look at the fund raising totals for his competitors going back for many cycles now, he hasn't really had a serious challenger.

            I'd wonder, before anything, how much slack there is in his district. I doubt there's so much he can be defeated without flipping any previous Ryan voters, but it's not something that should be discounted, either. He received about 231,000 votes in 2008, while his Democratic challenger received about 125,000. That margin seems insurmountable, but at the same time, if Ryan loses just ten percent of his previous supporters, we're already 25 percent of the way there.

            I really hope he's on the expanded list of 97 seats Steve Israel was talking about the other day. Winning his seat would be nice in general, but it'd a great scalp to have for the Democrats.

            By the way, how are you feeling since your accident? I've been in a couple of bad ones myself, though without any major injuries, and every time I see someone stupid on the road, which is often, I think of the picture of your truck which was all banged up.

    •  Kagen should run to get the 8th back (4+ / 0-)

      The 8th gets more Dem, smaller, and more Valley/metroplex focused.  Seems like this should be an easy take back in a Prez year with a strong candidate like Kagen.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:48:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Michelle Bachman can win the nom. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:44:54 AM PDT

    •  I still think perhaps a Romney Bachmann ticket (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, gabjoh

      as that will pacify the teabaggers and religious wingnuts with her on the ticket.  

      He will find himself in a similar position as Grandpa McMansions however with a crazy VP candidate  but I am thinking he can reign her in where no one reigns in Palin.

    •  She can definitely win Iowa (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      and I have been (albeit circumspectly) talking her up as likely to do so for a while now... No way she gets past whoever emerges as the establishment alternative in the west, Mid-Atlantic and northeast though.  Imagine a Romney meltdown and the Republican power brokers having to decide between just-as-crazy Rick Perry and sure loser Tim Pawlenty to avert a Bachmann candidacy.  Ouch.

      I do wonder what's next for her if she makes it through the election season without a career-altering gaffe.  I suppose she could be a cabinet secretary in a GOP administration (scary) but if Obama wins her prospects for winning statewide are nil.  She will probably go stir-crazy as a House backbencher after a few months as an official participant in the national conversation.

    •  I think she can, but it'll take a perfect storm (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, itskevin

      What's bolstering Romney to his modest front-runner status is the splinter within the Tea Party. They're backing the likes of Bachmann, Cain and Santorum, with a few supporting Gingrich and Pawlenty, too. To catapult ahead of Romney, she'll need at least two or three of those other candidates to either drop out or wholly implode in the polls. As it stands, the other four are garnering about 25 to 30 percent combined, while she's been lingering around high single-digits and might jump to low double-digit after last night. Do the math.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:57:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is there any polling evidence to suggest (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, James Allen

        that T-Paw is actually getting any serious tea party support? I know he has some SoCon background, but he's always struck me as more of a creature of the establishment.

        •  I suspect it's akin to Gingrich's support (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, itskevin

          (As in, the support Gingrich mustered prior to his meltdown.) By that, I mean a mix of the conservative rank-and-file and the Tea Party. He could emerge as a "consensus candidate" if there's a Pawlenty/Romney/Bachmann split in IA/NH/SC. But, for the time being, he's still everybody's third favorite candidate and that's not how you win primaries. (Just ask Fred Thompson and Wes Clark.)

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:09:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I always figured Pawlenty (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen

            was the candidate of establishment voters who wanted a candidate they thought could win the tea party. The tea party likes their bomb throwers, which is something that T-Paw ain't.

            •  I think Pawlenty is done (7+ / 0-)

              He's had a bad run, and last night was dooming.  He had the worst night imaginable, much worse than anyone guessed possible, and on top of that his main Iowa rival kicked ass and took names.

              I think Pawlenty's next humiliation will be Q2 fundraising reports.  I bet Bachmann reports more CoH, maybe much more given that she can transfer from her House account, and probably will do (or has already done) so since she's allowed to transfer it back again next year if she drops out.  I also won't be surprised if she reports close to the same amount raised as Pawlenty, and the only reason he'd have an edge is he filed his papers so long ago.

              Then in August, Bachmann wins the Ames straw poll.

              I think TPaw is on fumes going forward.  He needed last night to be the reverse of what it was.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:33:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It is still kind of early. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dc1000, MichaelNY

                I doubt last night helped, but I'm not ready to write him off entirely.

                As far as Bachmann goes, how much money could she have? Last time she reported in December, her cash on hand was about $2 million.

                •  She had $2.8 million at end of Q1, and... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, MichaelNY

                  ...raised $1.7 million in Q1.  This in what is often one of the slower fundraising quarters of every cycle for a lot of House members.  She spent almost $800K in Q1, on what I don't know, but that explains why she had "only" $2.8 million banked.

                  Bachmann raised a shocking $12 million last cycle for her freakin' House reelection.

                  I think she's capable of raising money at a much faster clip for a Presidential run, but the question is does she have a low ceiling like Ron Paul?  Paul cleans up on loyal low-dollar donors and easily gets well into 8-figures, and Bachmann already has proven she can do the same.  But at some point you gotta bring rich people on board to get to the high 8-figures or 9-figures.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:05:10 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  But wasn't most of that direct mail? (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, MichaelNY

                    If so, then it's hardly impressive, because she spends a lot of what she's raised trying to raise more. That is, if I am not confusing her with Sharon Angle.

                    Also, I'm not sure what is really an average amount to be raising at this stage in the game, but figure that in a country this large, there are at lots of wing nuts who are willing to throw down $50 to help Bachmann. If she's able to get 200,000 people to donate $50 to her, she'll have raised $10 million. Will she find that many people? If she's taken seriously, she might.

                    •  Yeah, (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I believe she uses direct mail in a big way, kinda like Angle did.

                    •  Responding to your points...... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, MichaelNY

                      You're right about direct mail, I forgot about that.  But she still kept half her Q1 haul, that's not what you normally get with the sleezy direct maiil outfit that Angle and others have used.

                      Regarding the small-dollar donors, yes she'll easily find 200K $50 donors and raise $10 million.  That will be easy for her.  I understated Bachmann's fundraising in the last cycle, it was $13.4 million.  Again, maybe some significant direct mail burn there, but she kept a lot of it, and the total is still a lot for a backbench House member.

                      I'll be shocked if Bachmann can't raise $20 million before Iowa.

                      Thing is, can she do much more than that, or is that in the rough ballpark of her ceiling like with Ron Paul?  And is there a point where rich people would join the bandwagon, or is she just too toxic for them no matter what?

                      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:18:26 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  I would just like to say as a Minnesotan I knew (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, DCCyclone, LordMike, MichaelNY

                Pawlenty would go nowhere. That guy is charisma-free and not very bright. He only got elected in MN due to a strong 3rd party candidate each time.

                He won't get the VP pick on Romney's ticket either. They need someone who will excite the base and that certainly isn't Pawlenty.

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:39:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That he's campaigned poorly hurts him in... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, LordMike, MichaelNY

                  ...arguing for the VP slot.

                  Biden got it because he had real stature and didn't run a bad campaign, he was just overwhelmed by stronger candidates.

                  Same with Bush vis-a-vis Reagan in '80.

                  But Pawlenty isn't just losing, he's looking bad in the process.  I wouldn't want that in a VP if I were Romney.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:20:11 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Romney is going to need someone who gets the (0+ / 0-)

                    base excited like Palin did for McCain. McCain would have been dead in the water without Palin. She got the volunteers out to GOTV and packed the rallies. Romney will need Bachmann.

                    My pick is going to be Bachmann/Romney. She is a better politician than she is given credit for. She's smarter than Palin and a hard workers. She also excites the base. She is going to win Iowa and South Carolina while Romney takes Nevada and New Hampshire.  

                    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                    by askew on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:35:24 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  McCain was dead in the water because of Palin (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin, MichaelNY

                      Palin dragged him down.  For whatever excitement she produced in the base, there wasn't much benefit to the campaign's field operations.  There were frequent reports on SSP about this, with McCain have little field organization in so many places.  A big problem was that whatever juice Palin added, it was already too late, you can't organize field in September.

                      Meanwhile, Palin badly hurt the ticket's public image over time, she motivated voters for Obama at least as much and probably more than her own side's voters, and Obama raised 9 figures in September alone because of hostility toward Palin.

                      Palin was a net-minus for McCain.  He would've lost no matter what as things went, but he really would've been better off sticking with the "experience" narrative and picking someone who bolstered it.

                      If Romney picks Bachmann, that guarantees Obama's reelection.

                      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 12:57:50 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I think Obama wins regardless, but Palin did (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

                        help energize the McCain camp and did get more people out to help with the GOTV efforts. Nate Silver had a team in the field and talked about the difference Palin made on the ground. Palin killed McCain with women and independents, but helped shore up the Republican base. There was a real chance that the base was going to sit the election out without Palin.

                        Bachmann would have the same net effect, however Romney is a much weaker candidate and he's running against an incumbent President. Romney is going to need someone to ignite the GOP base or they risk losing the House and losing ground in the Senate. There will be a teabagger in one of the slots on the GOP ticket.

                        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                        by askew on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:22:56 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Agree on Romney's weakness, but answer is not... (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin, NMLib, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                          ...someone who is going to excite the Democratic base to show up against him, in money and volunteer time and extra base votes.

                          That's suicide for Romney.

                          There are conservatives he can pick who the hard right folks will like but are not toxic.

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:34:18 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

  •  2010 all over again? And what would that look (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andyroo312, MichaelNY

    like in 2012?

    I'm starting to wonder how much the names on the ballot are going to matter.

    The economy continues to limp along like a 3-legged dog with sprained ankles, and long-term unemployment is worse than it was in the Great Depression.

    The differences are major, though:

    Republicans control the House, and the White House is up for grabs.

    In the absence of sufficient coffee, I could almost see a Republican White House and Senate (twice as many Dems defending as Republicans) with  a Democratic House.

    Or maybe Republicans get a pass in the House on the shit rolls downhill theory.

    At any rate, this promise of a future focus on jobs has gotten o-l-d.  I expect some politicians to pay the price.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:45:42 AM PDT

    •  Have you decided which candidate you prefer? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stcroix cheesehead, MichaelNY, askew

      Since the debate last night?  As you have always been forthright about being moderately conservative and sometimes voting for Republicans ?  Do you think you will do that for President or just for some other offices or not at all?

      •  Nope. I haven't gotten any further than (0+ / 0-)

        "Not Romney", but...

        I would vote for Romney if things keep going the way they are and he is the Republican candidate.

        I've just about lost all faith in the power of my vote to express a "for" sentiment, leaving only an "against".

        As things stand today (and with incumbents as the only names on the ballot), that would have me voting Republican for President and Senate, Democratic for the House.

        This would be a great year for a strong 1 or 2 issue independent or third party candidate to arise hitting the stump for jobs and for homeowners.  Wouldn't have to win, just to do what Perot did, which is gather up an identifiable block of voters to be won, and a clear issue that can win them.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:24:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bev Perdue is not very popular (7+ / 0-)

    but she did the right thing vetoing the budget, even if she does end up getting overridden. This will help her numbers, especially as school employees start getting pink slips in all 100 NC counties.

    The PPP poll shows how unpopular the GOP budget really is. The approval/disapproval numbers for the budget by party:

    Democrats approve 15%, disapprove 51%
    Independents approve 23%, disapprove 41%
    Republicans approve 33%, disapprove 27%

    When only 33% of NC Republicans support the budget, that tells you how out of touch the GOP leadership is.

     

    There should never be a tax benefit for companies that screw over American workers.

    by bear83 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:01:12 AM PDT

  •  NC stuff (4+ / 0-)

    Perdue has shown she can have a set by vetoeing the repub budget but she's got a rough road to hoe overcoming an override.  A number of dems (can I say Dino's?) went along with the repubs to get this budget passed and if that holds, an override is a done deal.  Another problem for her and the dems is that even though Perdue has lambasted the bill in just so many ways on so many levels, it's only a little over 1% in cuts etc. more than what she and the dems proposed initially.  That's getting a lot of play in the news and on radio talk stations etc.  

    This one will be interesting.  NC is a state that has a constitutional requirement to run a balanced budget and in a state that is very affected by a great deal of unemployment and loss of tax revenue, this is a tough nut.

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:08:41 AM PDT

    •  It's not 'just a little over 1% more' (4+ / 0-)

      it's what the changes consist of that prompted her veto.  For example the UNC system is having its funding cut by around 14%.  The GOP budget is very unpopular per recent polls, especially the education cuts.

      But back to elections, it really irks me that one of the House Dems who voted for the budget comes from a 55% Obama district... that kind of shit is just stupid when you look at how the real dixiecrats in the party were in 55%-60% McCain districts...

      Republicans can't grossly gerrymander certain state legislative districts because NC has restrictions on splitting counties.

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I didn't know that. Which House dem?

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:25:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  James Crawford HD-32 from Oxford (4+ / 0-)

          I just checked and it's 54 Obama but there are many, many Dems from districts where Obama got less than that and still voted against the budget.  DRA also has it as 57% dem average.  What's even more disgusting is that in a N&O article, Dems were talking about flipping the Dems in districts 1 and 2, which are more tossup/conservadem districts, because Crawford won't change his vote.  I've never heard of Crawford before but that kind of voting behavior almost deserves a primary challenge in that district.

          •  Wow, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I'm very surprised by this... I mean, he could not vote for it, if the other 4 keep their support, and he'd be fine. Do you happen to know the PVI's of the other 4 house dems who're still supporting it?

            DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

            by aggou on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:27:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Biggest bummer for Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, LordMike

    Even though most of the defense to the economy being bad and unemployment being unacceptable by dems/Obama is that they "inherited" the problems, Obama's theme during his presidential run was "hope and change".  

    Like it or not, there's very little hope right now and change just hasn't happened.  The repubs are gonna drill those facts over and over and over again.  If the economy isn't improving and if unemployment isn't lowering by the time real campaigning for the presidency in 2012 happens, Obama is gonna have a problem...a REAL problem.

    Gotta get this economy going...and that's gonna take money and that's gonna take government involvement.  Like it or not, THAT's what's gotta happen.  

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:53:47 AM PDT

  •  Perriello for Governor in VA (8+ / 0-)
    • VA-Gov: Former DNC chair and 2009 gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe says he's "interested" in giving the race another try in 2013.

    You can just check out the speech linked by David under WATN and see why Perriello would be a great candidate for governor in Virginia. I voted for McAuliffe in the last primary and would possibly support him, but he's always going to start with high negatives. Perriello is loved by the base as well as moderate populists across the state. Definitely could see him being able to win the governorship.

    Solid Liberal Democrat, born and raised in VA-06, went to school in VA-05, currently living in Italy. My SSP username was the same.

    by GeoffreyVS on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:22:31 AM PDT

    •  One part of your comment has no basis (6+ / 0-)

      I agree with much of your comment.

      But where you say Perriello is loved by "moderate populists across the state," that's not true.  He's not that well-known.  He's well-known in VA-05 and among Democratic activists in the rest of the state, and to the extent some of those activists are "moderate populists," then OK, but outside our base he's largely unknown.

      But I agree he'd be a good candidate.  He's got all the fundamental qualities to run a strong statewide campaign.  The only strike against him is that he is largely liberal, but that's no prohibitive bar in today's Virginia at least is if there's a personal likeability to offset it, which Tom has.

      Further helping would be if Cuccinelli is the GOP nominee, in which case I'd give Perriello an edge.  Of course, I think McAuliffe, too, would be favored over Kook.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:43:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Largely Liberal? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drobertson, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        If being the 232nd most liberal member of Congress during the 2010 election season makes you "largely liberal," then I guess I had a bad read on the ideological make-up of the country. I think Perriello is fairly moderate but liberal enough, especially on certain issues. Full disclosure: I interned for him.

        By the way, that link is a piece of crap article but it mentions that Perriello was rated that way in September 2010. Progressivepunch.org doesn't seem to have a way to view previous Congresses, only the current one.

        Solid Liberal Democrat, born and raised in VA-06, went to school in VA-05, currently living in Italy. My SSP username was the same.

        by GeoffreyVS on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:53:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That rating is crap (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Perriello voted with the left on almost all the big stuff.  I think he voted no on Wall Street reform, but that was from the left, not the right.  He voted for the Stupak Amendment on HCR, and that was it on major defections.

          I don't know how Progressive Punch does its formula, but if that was an accurate characterization of Perriello, he wouldn't be the liberal darling that he is in the state.  And he is, in fact, easily the state's biggest liberal darling today.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:28:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He isn't that liberal (4+ / 0-)

            Ideologically, I'd place Perriello around where I'd place Gabby Giffords. A Democrat on most of the issues, but breaking from his party on more minor things (guns, etc). I think most of his status as a liberal darling comes from the fact that he focused his campaign on aggressively defending his votes for HCR, the stimulus, etc, rather than running away from them.

            Male, VA-08, Born CA-36, SwingStateProject expat

            by drobertson on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:39:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Periello > McAuliffe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      McAuliffe will never, ever win a general election for anything. I can recall, during the '09 primary, reading/hearing time and time again, in interviews with Virginia Democrats, such wariness and "carpetbagging" sentiment toward McAuliffe's bid. He might well coalesce most Democrats in a general election, but I'd wager McDonnell still would've trounced him, nonetheless. I happen to like McAuliffe, personally, but I concede that Periello is head and shoulders the better Democrat for a general election.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:46:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd bet on McAuliffe over Cuccinelli (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        In 2009 that was right, and I agreed with you.

        Of course, none of the Dems running would have beaten McDonnell, and in fact I'm skeptical any of them could've stayed within 10 points of McDonnell.  But in hindsight I'm willing to consider that McAuliffe would've run a mechanically strong enough campaign to keep it considerably closer than Deeds did...but not clear better mechanics could've offset McAuliffe's biography and resume.

        But 2013 is different.  McAuliffe has been working hard to earn political goodwill and trust and has come a long way in accomplishing that.  His primary campaign last time was executed well in spite of falling to Deeds' late surge.

        The key is whether Cuccinelli is the GOP nominee.  If so, McAuliffe has no worse than 50-50 odds.  Cooch is toxic and McAuliffe will have the infrastructure to take advantage of it.  That can completely offset McAuliffe's own image problems, which already seem less of a problem than last time.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:32:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If it's McAuliffe vs. Cuccinelli... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I suspect a significant third-party presence might well emerge. That, of course, is presuming McAuliffe survives the D primary, which I still highly doubt. I'll concede that the GOP nod is probably Cuccinelli's to lose, though (if he opts to even seek it).

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:40:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  In VA, McAuliffe... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, gabjoh

    couldn't run as bad a campaign as Creigh Deeds did.

    "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

    by VA6thDem on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:43:32 AM PDT

  •  Rand Paul worker gets his (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, geoneb, gabjoh, Daman09

    I was pleased to locate this article.  

    Tim Profitt was the Bourbon County coordinator for Rand Paul's 2010 Senate campaign who stomped a woman, Lauren Valle, in the head after she was knocked down for attempting to position herself to be in a photo with Rand Paul and her protest sign.  The GOP handlers first pulled her away, then knocked her down, then Tim Profitt, manly man that he is, stomped on Lauren Valle's head while she was on the ground.

    Afterwards, Tim Profitt demanded a public apology from Lauren Valle.

    Monday, rather than order a public apology, the Judge ordered a years probation and a fine of 600$ for Tim Profitt.

    Another wonderful example of the gap between GOP rhetoric and reality.

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:58:57 AM PDT

  •  On the new WI districts... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, dc1000

    It looks like the new lines move St. Croix county from 3rd (Kind's) to the 7th (Duffy's), which certainly does make the 3rd bluer, since St. Croix county is red.  The interesting thin is that the city of River Falls is split between St. Croix and Pierce county.  Wouldn't it would be strange having a rural community with half the city with one Rep and half with the other?  I wonder if they would move the line a half mile so that all of River Falls is in one district.

  •  The ongoing Charlie White saga! (0+ / 0-)

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:50:22 AM PDT

  •  Texas Redistricting: on the House floor now (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aggou, itskevin, askew

    For play-by-play:

    http://twitter.com/...

  •  WI: Recall primaries to cost $0.5 million (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

    Thanks, Wisconsin Republicans.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

  •  IL-11, Atkinson Endorses Foster (8+ / 0-)

    John Atkinson had dropped out of the race for IL-11 and endorsed Bill Foster.

  •  There's Room for a Progressive-- OK-CD2 (0+ / 0-)

    Jim Wilson! Spoke to him today, he has a solid base of support in the Progressive Comunity. Carson & Corn- duke it out for the Conservative vote leaving 30%+ for Wilson.  

  •  Carson numbers (3+ / 0-)

    Carson's numbers are better than I expected. They definitely reflect that he still has a decisive advantage in name ID despite being out of office since 2004.

    Although I like Carson, I will be closely watching Kenneth Corn. His campaign for Lt. Governor was a huge disappointment (as was every other statewide Dem campaign, sadly) and I hope he can learn from his mistakes. Corn fits this district's profile very well. He's a cultural conservative with authentic working class roots in the Southeastern part of the state. In one of his statements, he said something along the lines of "yes, we're a conservative district but we believe in taking care of each other." Corn is best positioned to stay grounded in the region's cultural conservatism while simultaneously hammering away at the Ryan plan.

    As for Carson, he's a brilliant guy but amidst an ongoing realignment wherein urban Tulsa and OKC are replacing OK-2 as ground zero for Democratic politics, I'd rather see him take a stab at OK-1 (Tulsa). While I don't know where he currently lives (he called Claremore his hometown when he was in Congress, which is in OK-2), he teaches law at the University of Tulsa and graduated from high school in a Tulsa suburb. As one of the state's most prominent supporters of Barack Obama, that association will be a major liability for him against Faught and possibly against Corn in the primary as well. Obama is unpopular in every corner of the state but he's downright toxic in OK-2, where McCain performed 8 points better than Bush.

    Be on the lookout for an ugly primary. Corn knows how to play dirty. Arguably the most negative ad of the '10 cycle was this spot against his Republican opponent, Todd Lamb: http://www.youtube.com/...

    The ad backfired bigtime (Corn also signed off on the legislation in question) so hopefully he'll be more restrained against Carson.

    OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

    by dem4evr on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 01:34:55 PM PDT

  •  Not to be a broken record, but Pat Quinn (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, askew, MichaelNY

    still hasnt signed the US House maps yet. I thought this was supposed to happen a while ago. He quickly signed the state district plan. I hope he isnt privately considering a veto.

    •  It's making me anxious as well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, askew, MichaelNY

      That would be a disaster.

      Can it pass into law without his signature? If he vetoes, he's going to face serious backlash from Democrats in Springfield and Chicago, but he might just not want to associate himself with it for whatever reason.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 02:21:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He can just leave it and let it become law (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

      without his signature:

      "Any bill not returned by the Governor within 60 calendar days after it is presented to him shall become law. If recess or adjournment of the General Assembly prevents the return of a bill, the bill and the Governor's objections must be filed with the Secretary of State within such 60 calendar days. The Secretary of State must return the bill and objections to the originating chamber promptly upon the next meeting of the same General Assembly at which the bill can be considered. "

    •  How do you know he didn't sign it yet? (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe he did and it just hasn't gotten news coverage?  At least I hope that is what he is doing. IL redistricting was one of the few bright spots for Dems for the past couple of weeks. I'll be pissed if he vetoes it.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 02:43:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rothenberg's take (5+ / 0-)

    on net party advantage through redistricting:

    Given all of this, Republicans so far look headed for no change from redistricting, while Democrats are poised to add a seat, with more opportunities pending. If Democrats press their advantage in both West Virginia and Maryland, they could add a couple of more districts, with corresponding GOP losses. Changes in Florida would also affect the national bottom line.

    If all of this analysis and these assumptions hold — and they probably won’t — it is the Democrats, not the GOP, who could gain slightly from redistricting, though Republicans would indeed solidify themselves in some districts where they looked very vulnerable following the 2010 midterms.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

  •  Voting at PPP (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.micropoll.com/...

    Choices are FL, MT, NM, PA, and TX.

    I voted for Texas, I'm really interested in Sanchez and his chances of turning that open seat blue if Obama is competitive and puts some money in that state.  Though I realize that MT is also a good pick.  For some reason, FL is leading.

    Swingnut since 2009, 20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 02:54:16 PM PDT

  •  CA-Riverside-Moreno Valley: GOP Assemblyman to run (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, Goobergunch, MichaelNY

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    He's already lined up a lot of support. It's a 57% Obama, 53% Brown district, clearly Dem leaning. I have no idea who the Democrats will get to run, there's no bench around there.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:00:41 PM PDT

  •  Latest PPP/Kos/SEIU poll (7+ / 0-)

    49-49 Obama job approval but most interesting to me is liberals more excited about 2012 than conservatives and likewise minorites.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    •  Enthusiasm variance is just noise except for... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      ...whites and blacks.

      The one consistency is that whites tend to be in the 50s in enthusiasm, and blacks anywhere from the high 60s to the mid-70s.  Asians and Hispanics have varied, although almost always Asians are less enthusiastic than all others--this week the outlying exception.  Hispanics generally have tracked whites in enthusiasm in the PPP/DK weekly track.

      Similar thing on ideology, liberals and conservatives are similar, moderates lower, this week an outlying exception.

      Over time our side will get more and more interested and I think likely overtake Team Red in enthusiasm.  Obama still has a strong and very large loyal fan base, the major Republicans do not.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:37:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  after a week in new york (0+ / 0-)

    with family, i can say that obama will lose a LOT of older jews

    here's a sampling:

    my aunt, who was scared away from voting for mccain by his selection of palin, told me obama is as anti-israel as hamas

    a distant cousin, who is a self-described rockefeller republican who didn't vote for obama or mccain, told me obama was evil.  (after asking who she voted for, i discovered it was mckinney.  i then told her about how crazy mckinney was an she freaked out. lesson: vote for one of the two major parties unless you have a good reason)

    my widowered (?) great-uncle's girlfriend (who is about 80) who voted for obama told me she was very disappointed.

    i'd be worried about florida right now

    18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:30:43 PM PDT

    •  Anecdotal data that doesn't comport (8+ / 0-)

      with the overall polling trend.

      If there were ever a danger with Jewish voters, it would have been in the first race.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:35:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  disagree (0+ / 0-)

        i know this is anecdotal, but obama hadn't DONE anything relating to israel at this point.

        the discussion about '67 borders turns many older jews off. again, i know this is anecdotal and if polling refutes this, i will agree i was wrong, but i think his numbers with jews will be close to carter in 1980, at about 55-60%

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:47:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hah! (5+ / 0-)

          We shall see, but I will eat my loafers if it drops below 70%.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:55:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  If the election were held this year... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Maybe. But I expect the president will shy away from tackling the Israeli/Palestinian conflict next year in the lead-up to the election.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:57:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Your paranoia is unjustified (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, MichaelNY, NMLib

          Your famly sample is not a valid barometer of anything.  Sounds like much of your family never liked Obama in the first place.  Reminds me of these recent media stories about how Jewish donors say they'll "never give to Obama again!"...and then further examination reveals they never gave to Obama, or the DNC, last time.

          No there is no evidence Obama is in any trouble with Jews.  What a handful of your family say isn't "evidence" anymore than what my family members say is "evidence" of what Indian-Americans broadly think.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:31:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  we shall see (0+ / 0-)

            i do know that two of the three members i mentioned never voted for a republican for president in recent history (reagan and on).

            of course, i'd be thrilled if jewish support for him stayed strong

            18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:34:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I thought you understood stats better (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, MichaelNY, NMLib, askew

              Two of three dentists voting for a Republican does not a trend or a statistically significant sample make.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:46:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  agree (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                but i've seen no poll of jews since the '67 announcement, so until there's a poll, this is all i know

                18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 11:08:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Sure, a poll would be welcome (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  andgarden, bumiputera

                  But there was nothing fundamentally new in the president's statement, and he hasn't backed it up with any threats, let alone actions against the Netanyahu government. Support for an eventual peace based on the Green Line plus land swaps has been US policy continuously since 1967. And I do believe previous polls have shows a majority of Jewish Americans to be notably dovish and, from an Israeli standpoint, left-wing on the Israeli/Arab dispute.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 11:59:53 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Wisconsin Supremes Reinstate CB Bill (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The Wisconsin Supreme Court reinstated Governor Walker's collective bargaining bill on an expected 4-3 split: http://www.jsonline.com/...

    Now, while this is not good news, it was highly likely that the Fitz were just going to pass it again utilizing the extraordinary session.  Additionally, even if Kloppenberg had won, she would not have been instated until August and thus, would not have been able to rule on this case.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

    by glame on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:34:38 PM PDT

    •  At a glance, it's a nakedly partisan ruling (4+ / 0-)

      It's incredibly flimsy. The judiciary doesn't have grounds...to enforce the law on open meetings.

      During arguments, four of the justices signaled they were skeptical of Sumi's ability to halt the law. "I think frankly you've got to amend the constitution" to have the open meetings law apply to legislators, Roggensack said during arguments.

      So, the argument here is basically, "Yeah, they violated the law, but we don't like the law when it restricts Republicans so Judge Sumi was wrong to not ignore it."

      God, fuck the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This ruling is a steaming pile of dogshit that sets a terrible precedent for the future.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:39:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Welcome to the WI state supreme court (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        If you think the Federal court is partisan, you ain't seen nothing. The conservative majority on the court is a bunch of republican hacks, through and through, with very little sense of the rule of law.

        •  Just the fact they had the gall to rebuke... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Judge Sumi, though. That's outrageous. She enforced the law that was on the books. Nobody was arguing the Republicans sought to comply with the law as it was written, as the article notes. She basically said, "Okay, here's the law. I'm not an activist and I'm obligated to enforce it. The way I see it, you needed to follow the law, and you're flagrantly in contempt of it." And here comes the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which actually tells her she overstepped her jurisdiction by enforcing the law as it was written. There's so much criticism of "liberal activist judges" whenever they strike down a law as unconstitutional, but here Sumi is getting a tongue-lashing from the conservative activist judges on the Supreme Court for not agreeing that legislators don't have to give a shit about the long-established law of the land even if they don't bother providing a compelling argument for why they ignored it.

          It's just infuriating.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:24:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And it was unnecessary too! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            The legislature could have just passed the law again in the extraordinary, extra-special, supercalifragilistic session.

            I'm not sure why the conservatives on the Supreme Court thought it was so important to expend capital on this one. Makes no sense, especially since they could be setting some unfortunate precedent - and the same ends could have been achieved anyway, without any action by them.

            •  That is the rub of it (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, KingofSpades

              Basically, the Assembly Speaker Fitzgerald suggested that if the Supreme Court did not decide today or soon, they would just add the CB provisions to the budget. This was going to happen one way or another.

              Additionally, Kloppenberg, as I said, would not have been on the court until August, so Prosser still would have been the 4th vote.

              All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

              by glame on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:58:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  The second paragraph helps me feel better. (0+ / 0-)

      Now WI Dems need to double down.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:03:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Poll out on Latinos shows Obama with 70% (6+ / 0-)

    approval.

    impreMedia/Latino Decisions Poll:

    The poll revealed that Latino registered voters had favorable opinions of President Obama with 70% of Hispanics showing approval of the job the President is doing while 33% disapprove of his performance. Furthermore, 55% will vote or are leaning to vote for Obama in the upcoming 2012 election.

    The poll also asked registered voters about how the Republican and Democrat Parties reached out to Latino voters. The results showed that 52% felt that Democrats were doing a good job while only 18% felt the same about Republicans.

    The tracking poll is also set to ask about how Latinos view various leaders of the GOP. In this poll, registered voters were asked about the impression of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin. The poll showed that 23% had a favorable impression while 52% had an unfavorable impression.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:46:18 PM PDT

    •  Not the kind of numbers... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen, askew

      Republicans want to see.

      I'm sure they'll jump all over the 55% figure - oh, it's lower than the proportion then-Sen. Obama carried in 2008, he's DOOOOOOOMED - but it's an RV poll, not an exit poll. And 70/33 approves with any significant segment of RVs, with 55 percent - out of a generally low-turnout group, natch - saying they intend to vote for President Obama next year, is damn good. That's better than 2:1 and it indicates a majority of Latino RVs are actually enthusiastic not just about voting, but about voting for the president.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 03:54:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Really nice to see... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      Seriously, we lock down this demographic group and once latino growth is too much to overcome, it would take something fundamentally huge for the Republican brand of today to bounce back.  And it would probably take something like a decade or so for the Republican party to truly adapt to the realities of the new demographic reality.

    •  How can 70% aprove (0+ / 0-)

      while 33% disapprove?

      •  D'oh, good catch (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Possibly a typo?

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:16:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The "somewhat" and "strongly" approves... (5+ / 0-)

        Add up to 70 percent, so I'm guessing it's a typo and President Obama is actually sitting on 70/23 approves with Latino RVs according to this poll.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:18:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I like Latino Decisions with one caveat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They tried to argue after 2010 that Harry Reid actually won 92% of the Hispanic vote over Angle, not 69% as the exit poll said.  Their analysis involved a hypertechnical statistical analysis that I don't have the training to follow or evaluate on my own, but I can't buy 92% based on that kind of analysis when it's in defense of an unprecedented conclusion in voting behavior.

          That's ridiculous.  You see the black vote go that high for a Democrat, but never the Hispanic vote.  There are always at least 20% and in most cases at least 30% who are truly politically conservative or conservative-leaning and consistently vote GOP, no matter how crazy and xenophobic the GOP nominee.

          So I'm a small bit cautious about Latino Decisions, but overall their data passes the sniff test and is good.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:21:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, that race... (5+ / 0-)

            Might be the only in the country in recent memory where I could believe Latinos broke 92-8 or better for the Democrat. Angle ran at least one virulently racist ad, she demonstrated stunning racial ignorance with her "some of you look more Asian to me" remark (what the hell was that!?), and IIRC, pretty much every Latino group in the state except for a shell group run out of the GOP's back pocket went all in for Sen. Reid.

            I'm skeptical of the number, but not utterly convinced it's an impossible breakdown.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:16:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Huntsman getting in (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    This is clearly GOOD NEWS! for Mitt Romney.

  •  CA-36: CRAZY, crazy ad! (4+ / 0-)

    Hopefully this reminds LA what Craig Huey is all about.

    •  Eh, overblown, imo. (0+ / 0-)

      This isn't an ad by Huey, it's an independent expenditure web ad by a small insignificant PAC. Like, it's the guy who produced the ad from Alabama's weird AG Commissioner candidate who placed like tenth in the primary.

      This looks like it has a production value of $250, and it's probably a web ad buy over like fifty dollars. I doubt Huey's campaign would bother with that shit.

      •  If he doesn't condemn it, it's a problem (5+ / 0-)

        And I don't think it's ever overblown when a political ad goes this far. People had a fit over Aqua Buddha and Godless, but this is ten times worse.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 05:46:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not problem unless Sao Magnifico's point... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          ...below is an issue, that it gets play in the media.

          It's not on the air, no one is seeing it, so that makes it a non-issue.

          Unless L.A. media reports it and gives it a lot of attention.

          But even then, it's not Huey's campaign, and not from what I can tell anyone his campaign has coordinated with.  So still minimal damage.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:13:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Still, this group (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "Right"TurnUSA is really asking for a knuckle sandwich.

            Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

            by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:17:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They might make mention of it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Most of the stations here pick up on everything and discuss it. The very mainstream voter doesn't usually separate independent group from official campaign, candidates get blamed. Not that it would make a difference, Huey's chance were low to begin with, but this getting out what make the odds of an upset low.

            25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

            by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:07:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Let's hope it gets play in the L.A. media (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, askew, MichaelNY

      That's the ticket. You can do a bunch of crazy shit, but if the media doesn't pick up on it, you're golden. Just look at Rep. Wu; most of the really crazy shit he did during the campaign only really came out after the election. (The Oregonian has a really, really bad habit of doing that, both with Democratic and Republican incumbents. See Packwood, Bob.)

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:00:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh God, this is Willie Horton to the nth power. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Fuck you, WRONGTurnUSA.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:08:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "Willie Horton" worked. It was racially charged at the least and it was a low blow, but it worked.

        This is "Aqua Buddha". Only Atty. Gen. Conway was dumb enough to sign off on that ad himself.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 11:18:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI Speaker says redistricting won't go into budget (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Now, this could mean that they'll just do it in a separate bill, but this is a good sign:

  •  MI-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY, jncca

    I'm not even sure why this is being treated seriously.  The Michigan GOP senate race is turning into a running joke.  We have a candidate but we're not going to tell you who it is?  lol  Give me a break.  This is the definition of a political circus.

  •  NC GOP contines to sink. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, MichaelNY, itskevin

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:30:43 PM PDT

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