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Although Republicans control Ohio redistricting, I cannot help but play around with Ohio and produce a new 16-district map of my own. My goal was pure and simple: to keep Dennis Kucinich out of Washington state. The result? Very interesting mashups and combinations.

Given Ohio's tossup tendencies, these numbers in the delegation have the potential to swing back and forth dramatically depending on the cycle. Another thing that struck me is the distribution of incumbents: my map produced large sprawling districts in Central Ohio that turned out to house no incumbents at all.

Ohio

On a very good year: 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4 D
On a normal good year: 9-7 D or 8-8 tie
On bad year: 9-7 R
On an exquisitely bad year: 10-6 or 11-5 R

SOUTHERN OHIO

Ohio (Cincinnati area)

1st District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati); elected in 2010
Changes
The district becomes more compact, being now almost entirely contained within Hamilton County. Taking in all of urban Cincinnati, this was the district that the 1st was meant to be. Steve Driehaus can mount a comeback under these new, more Dem-friendly lines, or perhaps 2010 state auditor candidate David A. Pepper.
Statistics
VAP:    White (68.2%); Black (26.1%); Hispanic (2.3%); Asian (2%); Other (1.5%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (55.2%) - McCain (43.8%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (52.2%) - GOP (47.8%)
Probable Status
Leans D

Ohio (2,7)

2nd District
Incumbent in Residence
Jean Schmidt (R-Miami Township); elected in 2005
John Boehner (R-West Chester Township); elected in 1990
Changes
The first of many combinations occurs in the new 2nd. Under these new lines, the new 2nd keeps most of the current 2nd's territory. However, it also adds sections of the current 3rd and parts of the current 6th and 8th - including John Boehner's hometown in West Chester in Butler County. This is safe Republican territory, and Jean Schmidt should be able to hang on here, despite taking in new constituents from neighboring red districts, unless John Boehner mounts a primary challenge - although I think he will just opt for the less dramatic option of relocating to the new 8th.
Statistics
VAP:    White (91%); Black (3.4%); Hispanic (1.9%); Asian (2.5%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (35.2%) - McCain (63.4%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (38.2%) - GOP (61.8%)
Probable Status
Safe R

7th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
Despite being one of the most expansive districts in this new map, this sprawling district which contains much of southcentral Ohio and taking in most of the current 3rd, 7th, and 18th, as well as parts of the 2nd and 6th, is actually home to no incumbents. Steve Austria, whose Beavercreek residence was drawn into the new 3rd can run here due to his family roots in nearby Xenia and the fact that the new 7th covers most of the territory that his current 7th does. Mike Turner, whose current 3rd forms the western portion of this district, can also run. Bob Gibbs, although drawn into the new 6th, can also run here, as the eastern end of the new 7th is formed with the southern part of his current 18th. Another interesting clown car primary maybe on tap in this district.  
Statistics
VAP:    White (94.6%); Black (2.8%); Hispanic (0.8%); Asian (0.5%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (39.7%) - McCain (58.3%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (45.8%) - GOP (54.2%)
Probable Status
Likely R

Ohio (3)

3rd District
Incumbent in Residence
Mike Turner (R-Dayton); elected in 2002
Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek); elected in 2008
Changes
The new 3rd is perhaps the most overtly gerrymandered district in this map. Incumbent Mike Turner keeps his base in Dayton, but everything else changes. Instead of lurching to the southeast to take in the heavily GOP Warren, Clinton, and Highland Counties, the district now creeps to the southwest, following the Dem-friendly corridor formed by the cities of Dayton, Middletown, and Hamilton. The new 3rd also takes in some more Dem-friendly areas of Greene County in the current 7th. I also inadvertently drew included Beavercreek, home to Steve Austria. Under these proposed lines, the 3rd goes from being likely Republican territory to a classic swing district, although I must give a slight advantage to Turner in the general election.
Statistics
VAP:    White (77.5%); Black (16.7%); Hispanic (2.2%); Asian (1.9%); Other (1.7%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (50.9%) - McCain (47.6%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (50.3%) - GOP (49.7%)
Probable Status
Tossup

Ohio (6)

6th District
Incumbent in Residence
Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville); elected in 2010
Changes
The new 6th essentially follows the shape of the current 6th, and keeps most of its counties. It also takes in the counties of the northern part of the current 18th. Ironically shaped like a question mark, the new 6th is definitely a swing county: although Republican at the presidential level, this blue collar district is ancestrally Democratic, and as such, cannot be counted as reliably Republican at the Congressional level (the current 6th supported native son Ted Strickland for governor in 2010). Although drawn into the new 16th, I foresee Bill Johnson moving into this district, thus setting up an entertaining freshman-on-freshman primary action between himself and Gibbs.
Statistics
VAP:    White (95.1%); Black (2.3%); Hispanic (0.8%); Asian (0.6%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (46.7%) - McCain (51.1%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (58.3%) - GOP (41.7%)
Probable Status
Tossup

WESTERN OHIO

Ohio (West)

4th District
Incumbent in Residence
Pat Tiberi (R-Galena); elected in 2000
Changes
This new and solidly Republican western Ohio district combines most of the current of 4th, 5th, and 12th Districts. Pat Tiberi is the only incumbent residing in this new district, as Jim Jordan has been thrown into the new 8th, while Bob Latta is now in the new 9th. However, a bulk of Tiberi's current 12th has been drawn into the more Dem-friendly new 12th. If any of these three want to stay in Congress, ugly primary races are in order: Jim Jordan will have to run against John Boehner in the new 8th, while Bob Latta faces a race against Marcy Kaptur in the newly-shored up 9th, or all three will have to run against each other if they all decide to contest the 4th. Primary season here will be fun to watch.
Statistics
VAP:    White (91.9%); Black (3.5%); Hispanic (2.4%); Asian (1.2%); Other (1%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (39.6%) - McCain (58.6%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (41.6%) - GOP (58.4%)
Probable Status
Safe R

8th District
Incumbent in Residence
Jim Jordan (R-Urbana); elected in 2006
Changes
A clash of the titans maybe on tap at the new 8th. The newly drawn 8th is now stretched to take in most of western Ohio and even has a small border with Kentucky. Although I inadvertently drew John Boehner out of this new district, I think he will just move into it anyway, given that it takes in most of the current 8th. One big problem might arise if Jim Jordan decides to stay put in his Champaign County home and decides to contest this new district, as it also includes a large swathe of the current 4th. However, Jordan also has the option of moving into the new 4th, although a primary battle with Bob Latta will be likely if he does.
Statistics
VAP:    White (94.1%); Black (2.8%); Hispanic (1.2%); Asian (0.8%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (35.9%) - McCain (62.3%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (39.7%) - GOP (60.3%)
Probable Status
Safe R

COLUMBUS

Ohio (12)

12th District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve Stivers (R-Columbus); elected in 2010
Changes
Under these new lines, Steve Stivers of the current 15th may suddenly find himself in the new 12th. The new 12th still anchored in northeastern Franklin County, taking in much of Columbus. It yields Reynoldsburg, Bexley, and Dublin to the new 15th, but gains Worthingon, Upper Arlington, Marble Cliff, and Grandview Heights from it as well as Whitehall from the current 7th. Furthermore, the district also stretches to include not only OSU but its surrounding neighborhoods. The new 12th also sheds Delaware County in favor of Dem-friendly Newark in Licking County. Jennifer Brunner for Congress anyone? Or perhaps Paula Brooks can run again?
Statistics
VAP:    White (75.1%); Black (16.7%); Hispanic (3.1%); Asian (3.3%); Other (1.8%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (57.3%) - McCain (41.2%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (55.9%) - GOP (44.1%)
Probable Status
Likely D

Ohio (Columbus area)

15th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
Devoid of incumbents, the new 15th is definitely a swing district with a slight Democratic lean. Under these new lines, the district shrinks and becomes more compact, taking in the three-fourths of Franklin County that is excluded from the new 12th, as well as western and southern Columbus. It also takes in just parts of Union and Madison Counties, versus the entire counties under the current lines. Can Mary Jo Kilroy mount a comeback bid under these new lines? Or perhaps ex-AG and Treasurer Richard Cordray of Grove City?
Statistics
VAP:    White (74.4%); Black (16.1%); Hispanic (3.8%); Asian (3.8%); Other (1.8%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (54.2%) - McCain (44.3%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (53.6%) - GOP (46.4%)
Probable Status
Leans D

NORTHERN OHIO

Ohio (9)

9th District
Incumbent in Residence
Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo); elected in 1982
Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green); elected in 2007
Changes
Due to population losses, the new 9th now stretches from Toledo all the way to the Indiana border, taking in all of the current 9th as well as a large chunk of the current 5th. Despite these new additions, the new 9th is surprisingly still a Democratic stronghold, and Bob Latta faces a difficult race if he decides to run in this new district. Marcy Kaptur should be able to hold this new district.
Statistics
VAP:    White (81.7%); Black (11.2%); Hispanic (4.5%); Asian (1.3%); Other (1.3%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (58.7%) - McCain (39.7%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (60.6%) - GOP (39.4%)
Probable Status
Safe D

Ohio (Cleveland)

10th District
Incumbent in Residence
Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland); elected in 1996
Changes
I actually drew this map with the main goal of keeping Kucinich in Ohio. To be clear, I am just drawing a district that he (or perhaps another Democrat) can run in and hold. Although the district's urban core is mostly preserved, the district does shift westward to account for population losses in Cleveland and the neighboring 11th District. Anchored in western Cleveland, the new 10th now stretches to include all of Cuyahoga and also takes in some of Lorain and Medina Counties while yielding Garfield Heights, Cuyahoga Heights, Newburgh Heights, Independence, Walton Hills, Seven Hills, Valley View, and Glenwillow to the new 11th. These new lines does push the 10th a few notches towards the center at the presidential level, but it should stay blue with the right candidate. I may play around with the 10th and 11th a little bit more to shore them up, but it may come at the expense of the 13th and 14th.
Statistics
VAP:    White (86.8%); Black (4.5%); Hispanic (5.3%); Asian (2.3%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (55.4%) - McCain (43.2%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (60.6%) - GOP (39.4%)
Probable Status
Lean/Likely D

11th District
Incumbent in Residence
Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights); elected in 2008
Changes
Like the new 10th, not much happens to this district in terms of territory. The new 11th is still anchored in eastern Cleveland, taking in a majority of the city's African-American neighborhoods. However, demographics do change drastically: population losses in Cleveland will force the district to stretch out to include predominantly white areas in Central Cleveland, eastern Cuyahoga, and some of northern Summit County, thus resulting in a district where although the VAP is minority-majority, African-Americans no longer account for a majority of the district's VAP and only constitute a plurality of the district's total population. Despite these changes, I have no doubt that Marcia Fudge will be able to hold this district: the changes to this district notwithstanding, it will remain a Democratic stronghold/vote sink. I will try playing around with the 10th and 11th to restore the latter's minority-majority status, although I'm not guaranteeing results as clean as the lines I produced here.
Statistics
VAP:    White (48.3%); Black (45.3%); Hispanic (2.1%); Asian (2.8%); Other (1.4%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (77.3%) - McCain (21.9%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (78.0%) - GOP (22.0%)
Probable Status
Safe D

Ohio (13)

13th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
The new 13th is transformed under this plan. The district shifts westwards, shedding its main population base of Summit County (and Betty Sutton with it), as well as portions of Cuyahoga and Medina Counties that the current 13th takes in. The district does maintain its base in northeast Lorain County, and from there stretches in all directions to take territory from the current 4th, 9th, and 16th. The loss of heavily Democratic Akron is offset by gaining Dem-friendly cities and towns such as Mansfield, Sandusky, Oberlin, and Wooster. This has the makings to be a classic swing district.
Statistics
VAP:    White (87.6%); Black (6.2%); Hispanic (4.3%); Asian (0.7%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (50.7%) - McCain (47.3%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (55.2%) - GOP (44.8%)
Probable Status
Tossup

Ohio (14)

14th District
Incumbent in Residence
Betty Sutton (D-Copley); elected in 2006
Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth); elected in 2010
Changes
The newly configured 14th finally places all of Akron in one compact district. The district is formed with parts of the current 13th, 16th, and 17th districts. Betty Sutton can definitely run here if she opts not to move to the new 13th, as it includes a bulk of her old district. Jim Renacci, on the other hand, may find this new district a bit too blue for his liking. Although the new 14th takes in his base of Medina County, its red lean is neutralized (if not overwhelmed) by the inclusion of Summit County.
Statistics
VAP:    White (86%); Black (9.8%); Hispanic (1.3%); Asian (1.7%); Other (1.3%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (54.8%) - McCain (43.8%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (60.2%) - GOP (39.8%)
Probable Status
Safe D

EASTERN OHIO

Ohio (5)

5th District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township); elected in 1994
Changes
The new 5th relocates from the northwestern to the northeastern corner of the state, and is formed with bits and parts from the current 14th, 16th, 17th, and 18th districts. The new 5th is also a swing district: although it contains GOP-leaning Geauga, Carroll, and Columbiana Counties, it is also anchored by the Dem-friendly cities of Canton, Massillon, and Kent. Obama carried this new district with a plurality. Steve LaTourette can probably hold this new district, although that is no longer a certainty, given that it only takes in half of his current 14th.
Statistics
VAP:    White (92.8%); Black (4.4%); Hispanic (1.1%); Asian (0.6%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (49.2%) - McCain (48.7%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (55.6%) - GOP (44.4%)
Probable Status
Leans R

Ohio (NE)

16th District
Incumbent in Residence
Tim Ryan (D-Niles); elected in 2002
Bill Johnson (R-Poland); elected in 2010
Changes
Formed by using parts of the current 14th, 17th, and 6th Districts, the newly-constituted 16th District stretches from the coast to Mahoning County. Under these new lines, the hook-shaped district will be Democratic turf, taking in Dem-friendy Youngstown, Warren, Ashtabula, and Painesville. Tim Ryan can definitely run here, as the district keeps his base of Youngstown and Trumbull County. The same cannot be said of Bill Johnson. Although he can run in this new district because it includes his hometown of Poland at its southern tip, everything north of that (aka the entire district) will be new and less friendly territory for him. Steve LaTourette also has the option of running here if he chooses not to run in the new 5th, as the new 16th takes in the eastern half of his current 14th - including Lake County, where he served as county prosecutor for six years prior to being elected to the House in 1994.
Statistics
VAP:    White (87.3%); Black (8.2%); Hispanic (2.7%); Asian (0.8%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres:    Obama (57.8%) - McCain (40.3%)
Avg Votes:    DEM (64.9%) - GOP (35.1%)
Probable Status
Likely D

Thoughts? Comments?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer, davybaby

    27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

    by BluntDiplomat on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:05:02 PM PDT

    •  Yeah. Why is everyone so interested (0+ / 0-)

      in fiddling around with us? For a start, your scenario of northern Ohio is the LIKELIEST scenario, and for that reason, Kucinich is probably out of Congress — not because he loses his district (he won't) but because he shot off his mouth about moving to another state and that will not play well in this very rooted district. I'm really irritated with Dennis right now, because he should have kept his lip buttoned and his eyes forward like Betty Sutton is doing. He already has a Republican opponent who is already using Dennis' lack of loyalty to his district as a selling point. This is the most formidable opponent Dennis has ever faced. He is the chair of the county Republican party. He s an attorney and just stepped down from the board of elections to run, so you know HE believes this district will still exist. He is an experienced campaigner and organizer, well connected, and a completely pleasant person who makes a good impression. Dennis' only hope may be that this opponent (Rob Frost is his name) is not batshit crazy so he might lose to a teabagger in a primary.

      Dennis needed to STFU aout moving a long time ago. I believe he's made himself unviable in Ohio and should step down and let one of the district's many other fine progressives have the seat.

      Jennifer Brunner for Governor of Ohio 2014

      by anastasia p on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 06:35:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BluntDiplomat, jncca

      Almost all of your districts are reasonable, but I think your assessment of party status is off in some cases. Your 10th is only D+2 at the national level and it would take a certain type of Dem more conservative than Kucinich or even Sutton to keep it safe. I'd call it lean D or at most likely D because it's ancestrally Dem. Ditto your 14th. I think Sutton would beat Renacci in 2012 but might be vulnerable in a red year. Your 5th is R+3 and your 13th R+2 at the national level, which would be lean R if they weren't ancestrally D. I think they're tossups at best.

      SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 07:57:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the input (0+ / 0-)

        I shall make some adjustments soon, and I do agree that the 5th is more Lean R the more I think about it. I based my ratings not just on national races but also on statewide race averages that the DRA gave. But I do understand the volatility of this map.

        I may just get rid of those ratings altogether given the uncertainty of Ohio demographics and my poll approval-based biases on John Kasich preventing me from making more accurate assessments.

        27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

        by BluntDiplomat on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:20:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BluntDiplomat

        Kucinich might have a rough time — not because of his policies, but because of his yammering about moving. I don't think this district is as conservative as you think, and I certainly don't think a blue dog type is required to carry it. I think Sutton could do it but she's not in the district or even close to it. I think a good, strong Democrat would carry it especially in the year coming up. Sure in a bad year, Republicans could carry a lot of things they shouldn't have like last year, but this 10h would be a tough district for a Republican.

        Jennifer Brunner for Governor of Ohio 2014

        by anastasia p on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:55:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PLEASE DO NOT DO DISTRICTING TO OUST (0+ / 0-)

    KUCINICH.  Then he comes to our state as a carpetbagger and becomes an issue of weakness for Dems here. What did we do to deserve that?

    •  I AM NOT (0+ / 0-)

      I made this map with the full intent of giving Kucinich as much incentive to stay put in Ohio. However, OH-10 needs to expand outwards because it doesn't have the population within its current lines. It cannot expand into OH-11, as that district also lost population. My options of shoring up this district to make it theoretically even more enticing for him to stay is to include the blue portions of Lorain County that I drew into the 13th. If I make it expand to the 11th, it will throw off the already volatile demographic numbers there.

      And a point that I forgot to stress here at my own peril is that I  the decision to ultimately run in whichever district is with Kucinich. If he decides that he wants to be somewhere else - despite myself or anyone drawing him the bluest district under the Ohio sun with a three digit Dem-leaning PVI - then that is his decision to make. He may even opt to retire. No one knows. I intended this map to be a fun, blind redistricting experiment, not the third rail in DKE elections projections.

      27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

      by BluntDiplomat on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:43:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think Dennis will be ousted (0+ / 0-)

      by districting. More likely by the election if he doesn't shut up and get his act together.

      Jennifer Brunner for Governor of Ohio 2014

      by anastasia p on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 09:55:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What's the word on the street in his district? (0+ / 0-)

        How angry or annoyed are his constituents at him for being so public to the point of being obnoxious about his shopping around for a new district? All the reports I've read so far just focused on reactions in Washington state, I'm wondering what the mood is in his district.

        27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

        by BluntDiplomat on Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 10:29:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BluntDiplomat

    You might want to edit this sentence

    My goal was pure and simple: to keep Dennis Kucinich out of Washington.

    to specify Washington State. I read your original as referring to DC instead - that is, kicking him out of Congress. This made your commentary about OH-10 confusing, and I didn't things sorted out until the comments.

    30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

    by borodino21 on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:09:08 PM PDT

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