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The Senate section of this digest was written by James L.


CT-Sen: Roll Call has a rundown on still-undefined GOP field for the open seat Senate race to replace Joe Lieberman. The only Republican to actually enter the race so far is attorney Brian Hill, who ran as a write-in candidate in last year's race and was only able to draw 559 votes. A number of other names are giving the race "strong consideration", though, including former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, ex-Rep. Chris Shays, wealthy 2010 loser Linda McMahon, and possibly even ex-Rep. Rob Simmons.

IN-Sen: Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock "will shortly be apologizing" to a conservative blogger who says that he was "assaulted" by Mourdock's campaign manager after he asked Mourdock why he doesn't want to identify himself as a "Tea Party candidate." When you're courting the teabagger vote in an insurgent primary campaign against an incumbent Senator, this is probably not a good place to be. Click the link and scroll a bit to find the video of the incident.

MA-Sen: The Boston Globe takes a look at the low-profile Democratic contenders running against Republican Sen. Scott Brown. They also mention the name of James King, a corporate lawyer from Dover who may get in the ring soon.

MO-Sen: So it turns out that GOP Rep. Todd Akin, who's gunning for the Senate seat of Democrat Claire McCaskill, changed his voter registration to reflect his actual address on the same day as the St. Louis Dispatch broke the story that he very possibly committed felony voter fraud by continuing to vote in a town where he no longer lived. What's more, he then compared himself to American soldiers serving in Iraq who nonetheless vote in elections back home. Click the link for the full details of this pathetic story.

NM-Sen: Greg Sowards, the underdog in the GOP primary against ex-Rep. Heather Wilson and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, is out with a new ad that zings Wilson for her 2008 TARP vote and Sanchez over his track record on immigration. We actually have WOTSOTB: $18,000, according to a Republican tracker, which really isn't much of a buy at all. (For serious horserace buffs, note how similar the spot is in concept to UT-02 GOP candidate Morgan Philpot's iPad-themed ads last year.) Sowards' previous claim to fame was losing the NM-02 Republican primary in 2008.


MT-Gov: Charles Johnson of the Billings Gazette runs through a batch of new names considering runs for statewide office in Montana. State Sen. Ryan Zinke says he'll make a decision about jumping into the very crowded GOP primary field in the gubernatorial race by mid-July, and state Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essmann is looking at the race, too. They'd be joining former U.S. Rep. Rick Hill, former state Sens. Ken Miller and Corey Stapleton, national security consultant Neil Livingstone, and Chouteau County Commissioner Jim O'Hara.

On the Democratic side, state Sens. Larry Jent and Dave Wanzenried are already in; Jent pushed back sharply at any suggestion he might drop down to the AG race if current Attorney General Steve Bullock instead decided to run for governor. Businsessman Carl Borgquist also says he's interested. But a bigger wildcard is Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, who, in an unusual bipartisan pairing, has served as Democrat Brian Schweitzer's running-mate for two terms. However, Bohlinger said that "there's probably greater support for my candidacy for being a Democrat as opposed to being a Republican," and pledged to serve only one term (he's 75) if he ran.

WA-Gov: Reid Wilson catches up with Ron Sims, who just quit his post as the number two official at HUD. Sims, a Democrat, is a former King County Executive who ran for governor once before in 2004, and Reid speculated that he was interested in trying again next year. However, Sims says he has no such plans, and in fact said he called fellow Dem (and likely candidate) Jay Inslee to pledge his support.


CA-51, San Diego Mayor: This is odd. Dem Rep. Bob Filner, who just filed paperwork to run for mayor of San Diego, is still holding a $1000-a-head fundraiser for his congressional campaign. When Liam Dillon of Voice of San Diego called him out on it, Filner gave a very weird response: "A sitting congressman has certain political responsibilities and obligations. You have to keep some of that going." Surely he doesn't care about DCCC dues if he's on his way out the door?

CA-East Ventura, CA-West San Fernando-Calabasas: Dave Wasserman's sources are telling him that big donors are asking Rep. Brad Sherman to seek re-election in the new Ventura seat, to avoid a potential pileup with fellow Dem Howard Berman. Berman is staking a claim to WSF-C, saying that his "home is squarely in the district."

CA-Riverside-Moreno Valley: Republican Assemblyman Jeff Miller says he'll run in this new district, which lacks an incumbent.

FL-10, FL-11: Whoa. The other day, operatives were speculating that Charlie Crist could run for governor again, but as a Democrat. Now William March of the Tampa Tribune says that Crist could instead run for Congress in Rep. Bill Young's 10th CD seat if the Republican veteran retires. March doesn't clarify which party banner Crist would carry, but since he expects the district to get made more Democratic if Young calls it a day, I can only imagine he's thinking Team Blue.

Meanwhile, over in the neighboring 11th, state Sen. Michael Bennett is bailing on what seemed like a suicidal run against Democrat Kathy Castor. The first link above says that another Republican could still replace him, though: Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe.

FL-13: The FEC closed its case against GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan, who was accused of reimbursing employees of his car dealership for making political donations to his campaign. (This is illegal.) However, the FEC says that it is still investigating "other respondents," which includes business partners, other dealerships, and perhaps Buchanan's campaign committee.

GA-05: The nascent Democratic primary battle in GA-05 is unfolding along predictable lines. Forty-two-year old Michael Johnson, who just resigned as a state judge, is trying to make an issue of Rep. John Lewis's age and long tenure, saying "this election is not about where we were 45 or 50 years ago in the past." Lewis, a civil rights icon and Freedom Rider, shot back: "If it hadn’t been for what I and others did 45 and 50 years ago, he wouldn’t be able to run."

IL-13: Dem state Sen. Mike Frerichs says he won't run for Congress in the newly re-drawn 13th CD. It's currently home to 15th CD Rep. Tim Johnson (R), who hasn't yet confirmed whether he'll run there. The seat went for Obama by ten, but Republicans did quite well here in 2010.

MN-06: In case you missed it, Michele Bachmann said she would only seek re-election to the House if she's not still running for president next year, but there's a serious wrinkle thanks to Minnesota's unusual system of nominating conventions. Dana Houle explains the situation in full.

MT-AL: Two more Dems are expected to get into the open-seat House race: state Sen. Kim Gillan and Missoula City Council member Dave Strohmaier. State Rep. Franke Wilmer is the only declared Democratic candidate so far.

NV-02: Jon Ralston (who will eventually post a tweet that is nothing but a 140-character hashtag) notes that Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall has raised $75K for the special election, more than any Republican candidate has.

NY-01: Ugh — looks like the cat fud is getting re-shelved. State GOP chair Ed Cox is hosting a fundraiser for Randy Altschuler, which sends quite the message, since Altschuler faced a nasty primary battle with Cox's son Chris last year. While this must surely mean the younger Cox isn't running again, 2010 third wheel George Demos is still mulling a bid, so don't toss away your can openers just yet.

NY-09: NYC Councilman Eric Ulrich, a Queens Republican, has formed an FEC committee with the lovely name of "Remove Weiner." (H/t: Greg Giroux)

PA-01: Veteran Rep. Bob Brady, an entrenched fixture in Philly machine politics, is drawing a challenge in the Democratic primary from recently retired judge Jimmie Moore. This race could wind up breaking down along racial lines, as Brady is white and Moore is African American. This heavily-Democratic district is plurality (almost majority) black, and the primary electorate is likely more so.

Redistricting Roundup:

California: While most of the focus has understandably been on the new draft congressional map, PPIC offers some details on the proposed legislative plans as well.

South Carolina: Legislators have returned for a special session in which, among other things, they'll consider redistricting maps that have already made it through committee. While the GOP's plans may sail through the legislature, I'm quite skeptical as to whether they'll pass pre-clearance muster under the Voting Rights Act, on account of the new map's failure to create a new majority-minority seat.

Texas: The full state House passed a congressional redistricting plan yesterday, but because it contains differences from the Senate map, the two chambers will have to come to some kind of agreement before it can go to Gov. Rick Perry's desk. As Charles Kuffner points out, all that hullabaloo during the regular session, and it's taken them barely two weeks to get this whole thing cranked out.

Utah: Rural Republican legislators in Utah are speaking out in favor of creating a single, gigantic rural district that carves Salt Lake City out as a "doughnut hole." As it happens, Democrats favor this plan, too, since a Salt Lake seat gives them the best shot at retaining their one congressman, Rep. Jim Matheson. The more aggressive Republican approach, dubbed the "pie" or "pizza," would crack SLC four ways, ensuring four red districts.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  IL-13 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Perhaps Mike Kelleher could jump in?  He ran a pretty good race in IL-15 against Johnson n 2000 and it forced the GOP State Senate to make the seat a lot more Republican.  Since then, he's resurfaced at the Obama White House:

    You figure that he hasn't lost his campaigning skills and with his WH connections that he has the ability to raise money.

    •  He may even be a better choice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

      Frerichs has been elected to a similar area before, but he sits in a seat that hadn't gone blue since FDR.  If he moves up that's going to be a tough seat to hold.  With the Senate sitting so close to the veto-override and pickup opportunities being somewhat limited I think there's probably some pressure on him to stay in the Senate.

      It's the same thing we may see with Jack Franks.  There simply isn't another Dem who could win that seat and the Illinois Democratic Party doesn't give a damn about anything outside Illinois.

  •  Really digging the news from Utah (7+ / 0-)

    I mean, you can probably do some nasty things to Salt Lake City like throw it into the same district as Bountiful and Ogden, but Wasatch Front Republicans probably wouldn't like that, either.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 05:34:11 AM PDT

  •  Ken Calvert & Darrell Issa - California (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    can someone please tip me on which of the new CDs Ken Calvert is expected to move into?  

    I went back and read the Redistmas comments again and all kinds of people talked about him moving South into a district that contained some of Darrell Issa's current territory, but unless the Coastal San Diego district in the one they are talking about i am lost figuring out the musical chairs - I am also confused on the district Darrell Issa is expected to land in if not the Coastal SD district.

    I am so confused about Issa and Calvert!  can someone clear up my confusion?

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:01:39 AM PDT

    •  Issa could retain Coastal SD... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      walja, MJB, MichaelNY

      since he's listed on the House roll as R-Vista.

      The commission carved a new seat in southwest Riverside ("Perris"), covering Perris as well as some of Issa's old territory around Temecula/Murrieta; about 212,000 of Calvert's old constituents ended up here. (297,000 of Issa's old constituents ended up here as well). This seat is staunchly Republican and would probably serve as Calvert's landing pad, as Mary Bono Mack would run in Coachella and Duncan Hunter Jr. runs in Northeast San Diego.

      The bulk of Calvert's seat, of course, was put into Riverside-Moreno Valley; Coastal SD retained most of Issa's old constituents, at about 302,000.

      •  thanks (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:22:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Issa plans to move "west", Bilbray "south" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Issa is planning to run for the north SD/south OC coastal district on the new map.

        Bilbray, who currently represents the rest of that territory, is moving his "residence" a few miles south.  

        The report that I read might be mistaken as to exactly where Bilbray is moving his "residence", because if taken literally it would mean that he plans to run against incumbent Dem Rep. Susan Davis, and I doubt that will happen.

        Please help to fight hunger with a donation to Feeding America.

        by MJB on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 11:24:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  All Eyes on Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross, KingofSpades

    Upcoming recall elections in WI may turn the fetid Republican tide.  A tide that swept in radical malcontents like Governor Scott Walker.  The Governor is a poster boy for Republican decay.

    There Once was a ‘Grand’ Old Party:

    What remains now of a great party is vestigial at best and unrecognizable to the naked eye.  Painstaking forensic examination might identify it but that is a nasty business, looking at what is left ...


    Waging a "War on Ignorance" ...

    by heycoachb on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:48:48 AM PDT

  •  FL Fair District Amendments (6+ / 0-)

    to the FL Constitution that Mongo of Tallahassee put on the shelf like dead lox without asking DoJ for preclearance have somehow, shockingly, been precleared by the DoJ.

    Sixty-three percent of Florida voters approved these amendments.

    U.S. Justice Department clears Florida redistricting amendments

    Times staff and wires
    In Print: Wednesday, June 1, 2011

    The U.S. Department of Justice green-lighted a pair of controversial redistricting amendments Tuesday, saying that the agency could find no reason why the Voting Rights Act barred the Florida from using the new standards in the once-a-decade redrawing of the state's political maps.

    The usually routine preclearance process was thrust into the headlines earlier this year, when Gov. Rick Scott withdrew the state's application on Amendments 5 and 6, saying it was in keeping with his moratorium on new regulations. Eventually, the Legislature filed an application for the amendments, which were approved in the November elections.

    Because of a history of racial discrimination in five counties, Florida has to submit all changes to voting and elections laws to the Justice Department for preclearance.

    Democrats and advocates for the "Fair District" amendments, aimed at limiting lawmakers' ability to craft gerrymandered districts based on political considerations, hailed the agency's letter.

    And just when I was about to send more hatemail to AG Holder. Color me gob-smacked and really, really pleased.

    More at link on Alan Grayson and Mongo's "thoughts."

    Anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist socialist roader here.

    by OleHippieChick on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:50:39 AM PDT

  •  NY-9 (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like Mr. Ulrich wants the seat for himself...

    •  Why does he want something (0+ / 0-)

      that won't be there two years from now?

      •  It would save Anne Marie Buerkle (0+ / 0-)

        Otherwise, I suspect she's most likely to be cut out of a district upstate.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 05:51:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a good question... (0+ / 0-)

          As to whether Democrats would prefer to cut Rep. Hochul, the most junior Democrat in the delegation, or Rep. Owens, the most conservative Democrat in the delegation.

          I think the Democratic leadership may lean on Silver to prioritize the more dynamic, progressive Hochul over Owens if someone like Ulrich wins Rep. Weiner's seat. Something tells me Rep. Pelosi has not forgotten Owens's griping about how it was her fault so many Democrats lost and his remark about considering a voice for Rep. Boehner as Speaker after the election last November. I'll wager Hochul has stronger clout with Sen. Schumer as well.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 05:58:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  More reason that (0+ / 0-)

      the redistrictors should make NY-09 the downstate seat to target for elimination.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:38:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

        And if a Republican occupies that seat, all the more reason.

        I drew a quick mockup of an upstate compromise in which Rep. Owens is eliminated (in exchange for a hypothetical Rep. Ulrich or some creature like that in Queens):

        The light pink and light brown districts were carried by Sen. McCain in 2008 by one-fifth and three-fifths of a percent respectively. Reps. Gibson and Owens both live in the former, while Rep. Hanna lives in the latter. Rep. Buerkle is in the turquoise district, but it's way too Democratic for her to hold. Reps. Higgins, Slaughter, and Hochul are all in districts then-Sen. Obama won by high single to double digits, Hochul's being the weakest at ~54% Obama.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:58:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MN-06: Are the caucuses that big of a deal? (0+ / 0-)

    Dayton lost the caucus endorsement to MAK, won the primary, and as we know, is now Gov. I remember watching party parades in a couple of small towns in MN-07, with DFL trucks with signs only for MAK.

    Of course that was statewide on the D side.

    Who on the R side would run against Bachmann in a MN-06, assuming the small changes typical of a court redraw of the district?

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:51:18 AM PDT

    •  Caucuses (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

      They aren't a big deal IF you have unlimited resources and universal name recognition. Dayton and Bachmann both fit this mold. Essentially, if you skip the caucus nominating process, you get to run a primary by yourself, against the state party and their anointed candidate. Dayton is rich, and well known, so he got away with it. Bachmann has a huge campaign warchest and is quite well known in her own right, so she would likely be fine. The problem with "minimal change districts" in Minnesota is that MN-6 needs to shed a tin if people. And she doesn't exactly live in the center if her district. And the current version of her district is about as ugly of a district as a court would draw, so the lines will likely be smoothed out, as the district.contracts geographically. She may end up in the same district as Cravaack, as both of them live in the extremities of their respective districts. Another possibility is Bachmann getting drawn into McCollum's district, which would be hilarious. But even if that happened, she would just move (again) and run in the north suburban district.

  •  CA Election Data for DRA (12+ / 0-)

    Just a quick FYI for anyone wondering.

    I've obtained '08 Obama/McCain as well as '10 Brown/Whitman election figures by census block from the UC Berkeley Statewide Database. I've begun transferring the data set into the DRA format and expect to be done Monday or Tuesday at the latest. So, barring any highly unforeseen circumstance, I would guess the election data will become available on the block group version of the California map by sometime next week.

  •  WI Recall - ballot qualifiers announced (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The Wisconsin State Elections Board has announced the candidates who will be appearing on the ballot for the 6 recalled Republican state senators.  The list includes the fake Dems the GOP planted in the Democratic primaries.

    List linked below:

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:08:29 AM PDT

  •  CA-East Ventura has none of Sherman's territory (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    He's represented some of it before, though. I imagine that he'll have a fight if a Ventura County Democrat gets in, since he's been SFV based for most time and voters may prefer someone from the area.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:49:03 AM PDT

    •  Sherman would be crazy (5+ / 0-)

        to go along with that idea. The west and south SFV riding has more of his territory than Berman's and also includes the neighborhood that he calls the "best named community in America". If he didn't have Sherman Oaks he would lose his best joke line.

          More seriously, he got a less desirable district ten years ago to shore up Berman (Howard's brother Michael Berman was one of the line-drawers) and might not be amenable to giving up the rest of his district. If they did run against each other Sherman would probably be favored because he has represented more of WSFV and he is way more visible in the area. Sherman does public town hall meetings every couple of months while Berman is less visible in the SFV. Sherman has run real campaigns in the past (his was a lean-Dem district until the 2001 incumbent protection gerrymander). Berman hasn't had a tough race maybe since he was first elected to the Assembly forty years ago.

          If Berman wants to continue in his congressional career he should run in his own district, which is the East SFV district. Yeah, he might lose to Tony Cardenas, but the SFV has changed a lot since Berman was first elected (short version: more Mexicans, fewer Jews). If Howard  is such a wonderful and indispensible politician then he can get elected in the ESFV riding; if he doesn't want to have to work for his seat then he should retire. Berman is around age 70, Sherman is 55, Cardenas is 45 or so.

       Sometimes change is a good thing, though I haven't had a chance to here Tony Cardenas' views on federal issues yet, so this is not necessarily an endorsement of him. Besides under the current version of the new lines I am in the small part of the SFV that is in Waxman's West L.A. riding so I don't get to vote for either. If I ended up in the WSFV riding I would vote for Brad over Howard. Berman has had a great career in Congress but you can't stay there forever unless you are John Dingell.

      I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

      by Zack from the SFV on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 02:15:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hear, nor here, Cardenas' views (0+ / 0-)

           Ouch, bad typo!

        I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

        by Zack from the SFV on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 02:17:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Good post (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, Zack from the SFV

        Sherman moving would be terrible.  he is a strong Congressman for any Sherman Oaks area district.  Why the hell would anyone from ventura want him to run there, or defer to him.

        Complete stupidity to move.  beran has a place to run, or at 70, he's had his time and can retire.  Or, have a primary, nothing wrong with that.

        The Ventura district needs a strong Ventura/Oxnard/Thousand Oaks candidate in tune with the community who can hold it.  

        (of course if Sherman moved and held it, fine by me, but it doesn't make any sense to do it that way.)

        by tommypaine on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 05:58:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GA-05 was my district when I lived in Georgia. (8+ / 0-)

    It would be hard for me to vote against John Lewis even at his age, as long as he wants the seat. He's one of my heroes.

    For relevant sci-fi and fantasy, go to

    by Kimball Cross on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:54:35 AM PDT

    •  Yes he is one of mine as well. He is one of (4+ / 0-)

      the great civil rights leader. He endured so much for such a young man, so many beatings and he went through hell and never gave up.

    •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ray Radlein, jncca, askew, KingofSpades

      And his argument is unimpeachable:

      "If it hadn’t been for what I and others did 45 and 50 years ago, he wouldn’t be able to run."

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 11:48:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No shit (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew, Kimball Cross

        Who runs against John Lewis?

        •  Someone who doesn't know how to (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, BeloitDem, askew, Kimball Cross

          raise his name recognition without raising his negatives.

        •  Julian Bond (eom) (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:40:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Isn't he getting up there in years? n/t (0+ / 0-)

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:42:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They ran against each other for the seat (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Kimball Cross

              Initially.  Pretty bitter primary--read about it sometime.  I think Lewis also lost to Andrew Young for the seat before that, before serving on the Atlanta City Council.  My bad, it was Wynche Fowler:

              Lewis first ran for elective office in 1977, when a vacancy occurred in Georgia’s 5th District. A special election was called after President Jimmy Carter appointed incumbent Congressman Andrew Young to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Lewis lost the race to Atlanta City Councilman and future Senator Wyche Fowler.

              After his unsuccessful bid for Congress in 1977, Lewis was without a job and in debt from his campaign. He accepted a position with the Carter administration as associate director of ACTION, responsible for running the VISTA program, the Retired Senior Volunteer Program, and the Foster Grandparent Program. He held that job for two and a half years, resigning as the 1980 election approached.[11] In 1981, Lewis was elected to the Atlanta City Council.

              He joined the US House of Representatives in the 1986 election, representing Georgia's 5th congressional district, and has held that position continuously ever since.

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 06:55:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  John Lewis history (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kimball Cross, MichaelNY
      On March 3, 1986, the Atlanta City Council overwhelmingly passed an amendment to the city charter to prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, age, or handicap. This made Atlanta an early adopter of gay rights legislation (see Table 1). Among its supporters was Councilman (soon to be Congressman) John Lewis, an important figure in the civil rights movement. It is worth noting, however, that protections were essentially limited to public employment. Moreover, sexual orientation was included with several other characteristics rather than as a freestanding proposal (McCall, 1986; Teepen, 1986).

      I don't know why they added that last part.  As a gay, I'm not like "don't you dare protect other groups against discrimination at the same time as me."  I should read the rest of that article sometime...

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:27:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Matheson will not win... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    a primary if they draw a Salt Lake seat; he has pissed off too many activists.

    •  doesn't look like they intend to draw that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the county they seem to want to center the district on is Utah County (Provo).  Salt Lake City will still be split, hopefully only 3 ways and not 4.  There is no reason for the Utah GOP to permanently concede a seat when they can just keep giving Matheson a dark red district and wait for him to retire.

      As it is, Matheson is fairly conservative for a Democrat and the GOP would rather he be around than a Salt Lake City liberal in Congress.

  •  Senate Finance Committe (3+ / 0-)

    With the American economy on the ropes, what are the ranking members of the Senate Finance Committee working on?

    Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.), the ranking member and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, respectively, on Tuesday introduced an amendment to the Constitution that would allow Congress to pass laws preventing the physical desecration of the American flag

    •  NY-09: Weiner staff looking for other work. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Been hearing this on the radio driving this morning too.  Always possible he isn't quitting but his staff is looking to get out of dodge anyway with redistricting coming up.

      Breitbart's tarpit offers a few more details saying "According to our source, staff from Democrat leadership assembled Rep. Weiner’s staff and offered to assist them finding positions in other offices. Finding positions for everyone in Weiner’s DC office could take a week or two."

      A porn star who texted with Anthony Weiner is having a press conference today with Gloria Allred.  Which can only mean they want to shake Weiner down for more money and try to keep this in the news as long as possible.

      Hope that article from yesterday saying Crowley would want a weak unambitious candidate who wouldn't want to retain the seat if there as a special. .

      Ulrich scares me since if he somehow pulled an upset you know exactly what the Republicans will be demanding.  Ulrich gets a Republican leaning seat in Brooklyn in exchange for Hotchul getting a Democratic one in Western New York.

      Special elections are odd beasts and this district is an odd beast in and of itself with many conservative even if Democratic enclaves.  The Democrats can't try to be cute and must put their best foot forward.

    •  jeebus (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Baucus is useless.  Just useless.

  •  Would be interesting to see a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Philly Machine politician like Brady go down in the primaries, but Jimmy Moore would need a lot of money.  The Sestak siblings told me that Philly is the 4th most expensive media market in the country.

  •  Montana Democrats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    My notes on Montana legislators are not up to date, but, for what it's worth, I have that  Dave Wanzenreid had the backing of conservation-oriented voters in the 2006 cycle, and that Frankie Willmer is pro-choice and at some point in her career in the state legislature won an endorsement from Emily's List.  

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 08:58:43 AM PDT

    •  Wanzenried is a former trucker and a (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

      union-affiliated State Senator from Montana, relatively progressive but probably not able to win statewide (as pretty much no one from Missoula is as the rest of the state disdains everything touched upon by Missoula).

      Rep. Wilmer comes from the Bozeman area, is also liberal, but probably has a better chance to convert that into a populist kind of liberalism. Former College professor, and yes, I think she's pro-choice.

  •  Filner (0+ / 0-)

    I don't see anything at all odd in the spectacle of Filner tuckng away some more money in his Federal campaign war chest.  He might not win the mayoral office, and, even if he does, he might want to return to Congress some day. He can stockpile some cash, like a squirrel saving nuts for the winter.  

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:02:30 AM PDT

  •  Poll: Obama at serious risk in PA (7+ / 0-)

    of taking the state entirely off the table. ;-)


    In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum.

    Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th.

    Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today.

  •  Mourdock's campaign is a bit rough as of late (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    The tracker incident comes on the heels of Mourdock's bloc on the Indiana Republican Party Central Committee losing seven of the declared ten Mourdock supporters last week, which isn't a great headline for him either.

    These things hurt Mourdock, but I don't think they're going to help Lugar that much.

    Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:07:49 AM PDT

    •  So, good news for Donnelly? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, askew

      Just so long as he's much better at running statewide than Ellsworth.

      I tell you, if Lugar goes down, IN will definitely be in play.  I like(d) Lugar a lot, but when he flip-flopped on the DREAM Act last month, he lost me.  He flip-flopped because Obama (whom Lugar mentored) made immigration reform "too partisan."

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:46:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IN Senate "assault" (4+ / 0-)

    My first reaction after watching the video is "What a whiny little bitch!"  His reaction was almost as over-the-top as that guy Crazy Jack Davis popped.  I understand that political campaigns have to be responsive to forms of citizen media -- we in this online community are part of that citizen media.  But now so often this (on all sides of the political spectrum) has turned into a gotcha politics, where the goal is to get someone pissed off on camera.  The results can be really damaging to a campaign -- just ask Bob Ethridge.  Yes, I know you're pretty much always wrong to put your hands on someone else in this type of situation -- but there's a little, tiny part of me that wouldn't mind seeing the next "journalist" who does this getting the shit kicked out of him.

  •  PPP/NC: Serious buyer's remorse (8+ / 0-)

    and widening Dem lead on generic state legislative ballot:

    Legislative Republicans in North Carolina are continuing to become more and more unpopular and there's a pretty good chance now that Democrats would regain control of the legislature if there was an election today.

    Only 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in the General Assembly to 46% with an unfavorable one. That -13 favorability spread reflects a 7 point decline from already poor numbers a month ago when it was -6 at 36/42. Independents fueled the GOP gaining the majority last year but they have now turned sharply against the party, giving it a 28/48 breakdown.

    Voter attitudes toward the Democrats in Raleigh are evenly divided with 39% of voters rating them positively and 39% negatively. Those mixed feelings, combined with the negative ones toward the GOP, are enough to now give Democrats a 5 point lead on the generic legislative ballot at 46-41. That's a wide enough spread that the party would have a very good chance of regaining its majorities if voters went to the polls today, and it reflects a 16 point shift from November when our final poll before the election found Republicans with an 11 point lead on that question.

  •  IN-2, IN-9: Dem Candidate Watch! (5+ / 0-)

    Some tidbits I have gathered from the wilds of Indiana political blogging:

    Jack Colwell, a longtime columnist on Northern Indiana politics at HPI, dedicated his latest to discussing possible candidates on both sides for Joe Donnelly's seat in the Second District. Jackie Walorski is widely expected to run once again for the Republicans, so the really interesting details in Colwell's column are the two prospective Dems he discusses. Brendan Mullen, the younger of the two, is a West Point grad, Iraq veteran, and operator of some sort of Washington consulting firm. Mark Meissner is a former congressional staffer who already ran once in this district back in 2002. Mullen has the better resume, in my opinion, but at least both of them seem like credible candidates. Be sure to take a look at that article quick, if you're interested, as I don't know how much longer it'll be before HPI moves it behind their paywall.

    Meanwhile, at the opposite end of the state, Indianapolis rumormonger Abdul Hakim-Shabazz mentioned offhandedly that Bloomington-area state rep. Peggy Welch is "gearing up" for a run against Todd Young. Welch, as I understand it, was shifted into a new statehouse district that is probably too liberal for her to win in a primary versus a more liberal Bloomington pol, so it doesn't sound that farfetched that she'd bail and try to get a promotion instead, Joe Donnelly-style. I'd caution, however, that the various things Hakim-Shabazz hears about are not always that credible. I'd be interested in knowing whether any Bloomington DKErs have heard anything about this.

    Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:22:59 AM PDT

    •  Oh, I forgot (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

      Former state Auditor candidate Sam Locke has an exploratory committee for the IN-9 race, as well, so if Welch is indeed looking at the race, she'd have to worry about Locke.

      Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

      by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:25:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You're not saying that Abdul in the Morning (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bob R Bobson, MichaelNY

      is an unreliable source of information, are you?  (Hee hee hee).

      That said, Peggy Welch would be an interesting choice to go up against Todd Young.

      •  I go back and forth on using his blog as a source (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He does occasionally find out about interesting things that turn out to be demonstratively true, though. Is his radio show any good, anyways?

        You can't get anything down here except Louisville area stuff. Same for television. KET's stations have some good political programming, but none of it is about Indiana! Sometimes I think I ought to move to Bloomington or something just so I'd have access to decent state media...

        Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

        by Bob R Bobson on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 10:02:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I go back and forth on him as well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          He's a conservative, his show at times is just boilerplate crap, but he also gets good guests at times.  He can be sort-of Limbaugh-eske in his ego and making his own percieved influence the main part of any story (he even is often seen chomping on a cigar!) -- but at the same time he's certainly a player in local political circles (much, much moreso than Gary Welsh at Advance Indaina is).

          •  The man certainly does love his cigars (0+ / 0-)

            I've seen he tends to mix it up (to put it lightly) in his blog's comments section at times, which is interesting.

            Indiana still seems to have a skew towards conservatives when it comes to political blogging (Mike Kole and Paul Ogden come to mind, in addition to the ones we've already mentioned). Of the Indiana blogs I regularly read, only Doug Masson's is all that liberal, or at least liberal-leaning, and he's not really all that much of a specifically Hoosier-focused writer as he is more of a general commentary type.

            Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

            by Bob R Bobson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 10:21:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  She pissed off a lot of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

      people in Bloomington with her vote to put an anti-marriage equality amendment on the ballot. It would surprise me if she's bailing, because I don't think she'd survive a primary. She would however make a very interesting candidate to go up against, new best friend of Paul Ryan, Todd Young.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 10:07:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If that's what the field would be like for IN-02 (0+ / 0-)

      I think I'll pull for Mullen.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 11:22:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can either Dem candidate (0+ / 0-)

      win against Wackie Jackie?

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:48:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On a perosnal level (0+ / 0-)

        That's not clear yet, we don't know enough about either of these guys, their skills, their backgrounds, etc. to make that kind of judgement.

        When you take the race as a whole, though, I'm not optimistic. IN-2 was already a swingy district to begin with, and I figure the new boundaries will only make it harder for us to win. Maybe Mullen will turn out to be some sort of Perriello-style excellent candidate that can counter that, but we just don't know that yet.

        I'm a little more skeptical of Meissner. Who loses to Jill Long Thompson?

        Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

        by Bob R Bobson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 10:10:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  you tell him John Lewis (14+ / 0-)
    The nascent Democratic primary battle in GA-05 is unfolding along predictable lines. Forty-two-year old Michael Johnson, who just resigned as a state judge, is trying to make an issue of Rep. John Lewis's age and long tenure, saying "this election is not about where we were 45 or 50 years ago in the past." Lewis, a civil rights icon and Freedom Rider, shot back: "If it hadn’t been for what I and others did 45 and 50 years ago, he wouldn’t be able to run."

    You go John !!! I just adore this man and have so much respect for him.  

  •  maryland politics (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

    What's with Maryland senatorial politics?  I'm looking over election results for research and there's ten or so random people who seem to run in every race, but never get more than 5% or so of the vote.  seriously, these people need to get a life or run for lower office.

  •  Impact of marriage equality vote on NY GOPers? (5+ / 0-)

    There are a couple main themes being bandied about:

    - Voting for the bill will hurt a Republican senator by inviting a primary challenge and losing the Conservative line.  While New Yorkers statewide support marriage equality by about a 2-to-1 margin, Republicans oppose it by 2-1 and the most motivated primary voters likely by even more.  NOM and other groups will be able to make a huge impact on primary races for a small amount of money.  Ousting incumbents and creating open seats could further weaken Republican prospects and have the follow-on effect of losing the Senate in 2012.
    - Voting for SSM will have a neutral or even positive effect on a senator's electoral standing.  Any senator who makes it through a primary will have a serious trump card to play in the general election among Democrats and independents.  Help can flow from both sides; the GLBT money and volunteer spigots will open for any Republican who votes yes.  Finally, the marriage equality discussion is not going away until the bill gets passed, and poll numbers show that it is not an issue that is helpful for Republicans.  Passing the bill could move the conversation toward government spending or some other issue on which 60% of the public is not against them.

    If I were a purely self-interested Republican senator, I'd probably err on the side of the former for now, but there is a real argument to be made that voting yes is far from political suicide.

  •  WBO Roemer and Moore? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Buddy Roemer and Roy Moore?  Didn't both politicians say they were running for the GOP Presidential nomination?  Whatever Became Of them?  Neither may have much of a shot anyway.  But both have been totally AWOL in the news media.

  •  does anyone (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, James Allen, jj32

    have a resource for 1990s, 1980s congressional maps? thanks a lot

    18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 01:07:04 PM PDT

  •  FL-11, Mark Sharpe (5+ / 0-)

    Interesting news about Mark Sharpe. I grew up a few doors down from him; he was my best friend's big brother's best friend (did that make sense?). Navy vet. Military Intelligence. Good people.

    More to the point, while a run against Kathy Castor would be pretty hopeless, he has a history of tilting at that particular windmill; back in the 1990s, he staged several losing — but ultimately more successful than anyone had a right to expect — campaigns against the legendary "Cigar City" Sam Gibbons, tallying 48.2% against the then-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee in 1994, largely without any national support from the GOP. After losing a third time in a row, to Gibbons' successor, Jim "Not the Garfield Guy" Davis, he briefly retired from politics before running for Hillsborough County Commission. If I'm not mistaken, he's currently holding an at-large seat.

    As an aside, he got my mom into politics, as she volunteered for his campaigns big-time, and was one of his key sources of information on senior citizen issues (always big in the Tampa Bay area). Unfortunately, I think she viewed his many admirable personal qualities as typical of the Republican party, and transferred her allegiance to the larger organization, winding up her life as quite the Fox News viewer; her last ever vote cast was for Joe Miller for Senate in Alaska. I'm flying up to Alaska tomorrow to be with my father and my sister and scatter her ashes on Denali; she would have been thrilled to hear that he might run again.

    I'd still vote for Kathy Castor if I still lived in FL-11, though.

    "I play a street-wise pimp" — Al Gore

    by Ray Radlein on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 01:07:28 PM PDT

  •  Wisconsin Unions go to Federal Court (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY, askew

    While it would be great if something can happen, I doubt something would happen because the US Supreme Court seems to be as conservative at the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

    by glame on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 01:10:51 PM PDT

  •  RealClear Politics: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, LordMike

    "The fact that the results here so closely mirror what we saw with the presidential numbers suggests that it is correct to intuit that these district lines will produce a few more Democratic representatives in a neutral environment, but would give the Republicans more opportunities in a year like 2010"

  •  PPP is polling Florida and Montana. (7+ / 0-)

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 02:33:40 PM PDT

  •  Ron Sims (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    Local scuttlebutt in and around Seattle is that Sims might want to run for mayor in 2013.  Or for Congress in 2012, if the redistricting puts him in the new CD.

    Ron seems much more the executive type than the legislative, so if he does decide to run for something, I'd say mayor is the most likely.

    grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

    by N in Seattle on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 03:33:24 PM PDT

  •  New diary on court drawn WI Senate redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Most of the state doesn't change much, but Darling / Pasch could potentially have a much more republican district next year even in a court-drawn map due to the Milwaukee districts not having enough population and needing to expand

  •  Fight almost breaks out in the CA Assembly (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Goobergunch

    Fast forward to 5:15.

    Budget debates in Sacramento are often heated, but they don’t often require lawmakers to restrain one another in front of rolling television cameras to prevent them from getting physical.

    Except on Wednesday.

    It all began when Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) likened a portion of the Democrats’ budget plan, a plan to eliminate redevelopment agencies, to a “Tony Soprano” insurance scheme.

    Assemblyman Anthony Portantino (D-La Cañada Flintridge) quickly rose to say that “as a proud Italian American, I resent that and I would respectfully ask the commenter to make an apology to Italian Americans in California."

    Wagner retorted, “I will apologize to any Italian Americans who are not in the Mafia and engaged in insurance scams,” to audible murmurs and grumbling in the chamber.

    Then Wagner rose again. "My apology, if one is needed, is sincere," he said. "My reference is certainly not one that no one in this room gets… I think my colleagues on the other side of the aisle, especially one who seems to be extraordinarily outraged over this for reasons I don't understand -- my reference is not lost on anyone here. This is not an attack on anyone. This bill is a bait and switch."

    Moments later, Assemblyman Warren Furutani (D-Gardena), who is not Italian American, hustled over to confront Wagner and the two had to be separated by colleagues.

    The exchange begins at around the 2:45 minute mark in the video above.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:29:10 PM PDT

  •  Rep. Weiner will resign his seat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    He's announcing it this afternoon. Story here.

    A Democratic source tells HuffPost's Sam Stein that Weiner called Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday night to alert them of his plans to step down today.

    My competing reactions are "it's about damn time" and "Democrats cannot take this for granted".

    Melinda Katz is probably my preferred candidate here, if she gets in. She's a bit eccentric; likes to sing at campaign appearances, apparently, but she's an outspoken progressive and, something that plays well in NY-09, a diehard pro-Israel partisan. She ran in the Democratic primary for comptroller a couple years ago and lost. Not sure if she lives in the district proper, but Rep. Hochul doesn't live in her district either.

    Noach Dear could run; he's challenged Weiner as both a Democrat and (when that failed) a Republican in the past. He's fairly reprehensible, apparently quite socially conservative, but that could play well with Orthodox Jews in Kew Gardens (remember MosheM?).

    Eric Ulrich, as mentioned in this Digest, is a potential candidate for the Republicans. Hopefully he's too conservative to win, as it would be embarrassing to have a piece of non-Staten Island New York City represented by a tea-flavored Republican.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 07:35:59 AM PDT

    •  ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That, with the fact that it is the least Democratic district in NYC outside of Staten Island, pretty much seals the deal: the district is going to get dismantled.


      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 07:58:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, it's absolutely a goner (0+ / 0-)

        If a Republican wins it, though, it's Rep. Owens or Rep. Hochul who gets cut (assuming the self-serving New York legislature doesn't throw it to the courts, which I doubt but is possible), whereas if a Democrat wins it, Silver can probably hold out for Rep. Gibson getting the chop.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:05:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  . (0+ / 0-)

          So that is what the recent discussion has been about. Every time someone mentioned this Silver person, I kept thinking: "What does Nate Silver have to do with this?"

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:11:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  They're losing two districts, not one (0+ / 0-)

          I still think Buerkle is the most likely Republican to lose out in redistricting. Ackerman would probably lose out if a Republican wins NY-09.

          •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, askew, MichaelNY

            And I'm thinking NY-09 goes no matter what happens; that's baked in already, in my judgment. It's easy to take apart, it allows the creation of new VRA seats if it's dismantled, and whoever wins will be the most junior member of their party in the New York delegation.

            Rep. Ackerman has a good committee spot and he's got friends in Albany. I think Rep. Owens is on Rep. Pelosi's shit list, and whereas Sen. Schumer will come in strongly behind Ackerman and Rep. Hochul, I don't see anyone with as much clout rising to Owens's defense come redistricting.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:20:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I do believe that Owens is on the DK sh*t list (0+ / 0-)

              but I don't believe that Pelosi is that kind of person, especially given the current makeup of NY-23.

              In any case, even if Pelosi were out for blood, I'm not convinced that she has much influence over Shelly Silver.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:39:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  ... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                Pelosi definitely has a shit list.

                21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:45:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Rep. Pelosi totally has a shitlist... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                And tearing her apart in a post-election interview and threatening to vote for Rep. Boehner as Speaker is a hell of a way to make it. Personally, I'm satisfied with Rep. Owens just for being the crucial vote on healthcare reform, but I think leadership has the knives out for him if a Republican takes Rep. Weiner's seat.

                Silver may not listen to Pelosi much, but Sen. Schumer does, and he's almost certainly going to back Reps. Ackerman and Hochul over Owens. Ditto Sen. Gillibrand, who I get the impression is a particularly big fan of Hochul (considering I doubt she would have won the election without Gillibrand's enthusiastic support).

                Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:55:10 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  He tore her apart? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  I remember him talking about voting for Boehner, but he actually tore her apart?

                  Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

                  by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 07:14:38 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That might be strong... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    But he criticized her in no uncertain terms and snarked a bit about her being a progressive. Story here.

                    "Clearly, she made it very clear that she was a progressive and pushing a progressive agenda, which is one of the reasons why, on a number of issues, I stepped away from the Democratic leadership," Owens said.


                    Owens also said he is "very disappointed ... in the failure of either she or Mr. Boehner to offer a compromise on the Bush tax cuts. I think that's a real failure of leadership on both of their parts."

                    Not the kind of thing Rep. Pelosi is going to laugh off.

                    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 08:31:51 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  So then, even if a Republican wins NY-09, it's not (0+ / 0-)

              likely to matter that much?

              I'd say it's not likely to matter that much for another reason: the Republican, were he to win, could just be defeated in the regular election. I mean, the New York Republican party seems to be in disarray, and given that even a less Democratic district, it's still New York, why can't the Democrats just overwhelm him? Perhaps he'd still win, but much like the Democratic candidate running for Senate in Massachusetts, this person has a built in set of advantages that most would kill for.

        •  I still don't see why democrats should agree (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          drobertson, DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY

          to cutting an upstate democrat. We have a lot of leverage here. Cut a non-Burkle republican or throw it to the courts, including the State Senate map. A court-drawn congressional map really wouldn't turn out that bad for us.

    •  pass the popcorn (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Goobergunch, MichaelNY

      Another special election in New York! So far the rule is that the Republicans always come up with a new way to beat themselves, but seeing as this seat is (a) in NYC and (b) Dem-held, the rule will depend on the result:

      1. If the Dem wins by much more than you would expect in a D+5 district, the "Republicans always blow it" rule still holds.

      2. If it's a boring election with neither side committing major mistakes and the Dem winning by a comfortable but not embarrassing margin, then the rule applies only to upstate districts.

      3. If the Republican wins, the rule must be modified to "always bet the underdog".

      SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 09:29:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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