I decided to try to draw Wisconsin as a court would. My main goals were:
1) Keep the Milwaukee area, the Kenosha-Racine area, the Madison Area, and the Green Bay area separate
2) Keep districts compact
3) Minimize county splits
4) Never split a city
I ignored partisanship, but this map looks good for Democrats.
Let's start with Paul Ryan.
Ryan's district approximates the 1990s map by keeping Rock Co. whole, to his detriment. I took out his portion of Waukesha and added Milwaukee suburbs until the population reached what it needed to be. For those who think I added Milwaukee County areas to help out a Democratic challenger, the Milwaukee Co. portion is more Republican than the rest of the district.
PVI: D+3. He's not a goner, but he's in for the fight of his life every year until he retires or goes down. However, this could make him re-think the open Senate seat.
Rob Zerban is looking like a better fit.
In the second, whomever replaces Baldwin looks extremely safe.
Again, it closely resembles the 1990s iteration of the district, which was this district (minus Crawford and Grant) and the rest of Columbia. PVI? D+17.
The third district shifts northward here. If Kind runs, St. Sen. Pat Kreitlow would be the likely Democratic candidate. It'd be a toss-up, though, in this D+3 open seat.
The fourth district takes in the 5ths ugly fingers into Milwaukee County and then must shed a little territory. Gwen Moore (has she ever done anything?) is safe. D+21, majority minority by population but not VAP (52% White VAP)
The fifth, in the so-called "Circle of Ignorance" (which I personally view as an offensive term, but we can save that for PMing), is safe for Jim Sensenbrenner. It is R+15 and remains similar to the current iteration, losing the awkward fingers into Milwaukee and Jefferson counties.
In my quest to keep the Fox Valley cities together, the sixth had to expand into more rural territory. First, though, it took in West Bend in the Milwaukee suburbs (they didn't all fit into the fifth). It then adds rural Jefferson and Columbia in the south and Kenauwee and Door in the north to reach population. R+4, a narrow McCain win.
This is a sort of Wisconsin Great White North district. It sheds a few counties to the third and then picks up the rest of the territory from rural areas formerly in the more urban 8th. It ends up D+3, basically no PVI change, and very vulnerable for Sean Duffy. Julie Lassa should give it another go.
Reid Ribble's 8th becomes much more compact. It takes in all four Fox Valley counties and adds Waupaca and a bit of Shawano to reach population. It is D+1, but Ribble's incumbency, non-gaffeproneness (see Duffy, Sean) and the historically Republican lean of this area would make this a Lean GOP race.
And, for a statewide view:
Comment.