Warning: This gerrymander is not for the faint of heart. This is an in-your-face, take it or leave it, dirty gerrymander of the great state of Florida. A combination of Republicans controlling the trifecta, the recent passage of the FDF amendments, and the Voting Rights Act would never allow this map to happen, but I thought it would be a fun exercise to see how many Democratic districts I could squeeze out of Florida. My goal was to make all Democratic districts at least 57 percent Obama, and all Democratic districts in the Miami area at least 60 percent Obama (due to high turnout rates of Cuban Republicans in the area). I turned a 4-4 split in the tri-county area into a 8-0 Democratic delegation.
This map contains 18 districts won by President Obama and 9 districts won by Senator McCain. Follow me over the jump to see all the madness!
FL 1:
Old district: 32 O 67 M
New district: 28.8 O 71.2 M
GOP vote sink in northwest Florida. Contains much of the same territory although it loses Democratic areas of Pensacola. One of the most Republican districts in the entire country. This would have been the 10th most Republican district in 2008.
FL 2:
Old district: 45 O 54 M
New district: 58.4 O 41.6 M
I never said it was gonna be pretty... This district stretches from Democratic areas of Pensacola, picks up heavy black precincts in Tallahassee, then ends in Gainesville, picking up young and African-American voters. I would worry about this district in a wave year when minority and student turnout would be way down, but in most years this would be a solidly Democratic district.
FL 3:
Old district: 73 O 26 M
New district: 59.1 O 40.9 M
Corrinne Brown would not be happy with this district, as it is no longer black plurality, but a Democrat will win this district nonetheless. It loses black precincts in Orlando, and to make up for that, it takes in lean Democratic areas in Flagler County, as well as some swingy areas in southwestern Volusia County. Still, heavily Democratic areas of Jacksonville and Ocala make this a safe Democratic district. GO GATA!
FL 4:
Old district: 38 O 61 M
New district: 37.5 O 61.5 M
GOP vote sink that stretches from Panama City to Republican areas south of Ocala.
FL 5:
Old district: 43 O 56 M
New district: 35.2 O 64.8 M
GOP vote sink taking in the southern suburbs of Jacksonville as well as rural central Florida.
FL 6:
Old district: 43 O 56 M
New district: 36 O 64 M
GOP vote sink incorporating Republican areas of the city of Jacksonville, as well as some rural Republican areas to the north and west of the city.
FL 7:
Old district: 46 O 53 M
New district: 57.1 O 42.9 M
My original goal was to create three Democratic districts in only Orange and Osceola counties, but there are only enough Dem leaning areas in those two counties to create two solidly Democratic districts, so the new 7th swings from heavy black areas in Orlando to Dem leaning areas in Daytona Beach and New Smyrna Beach. John Mica is a goner in this district.
FL 8:
Old district: 53 O 47 M
New district: 57.2 O 42. 8 M
Basically the city of Orlando without the African-American areas. Pockets of white liberals and Hispanics offset the conservative outskirts, and manage to create a D+6 district. This is a minority-majority, white plurality (48 percent) district.
FL 9:
Old district: 47 O 52 M
New district: 57 O 43 M
Creating three Democratic districts in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area was actually relatively easy. I unpacked Kathy Pastor's district, which helps the new 9th become 10 points more Democratic. This is basically a swing district except for the heavy black precincts in Tampa, which swing it towards the Democrats.
FL 10:
Old district: 51 O 47 M
New district: 56 O 44 M
I was limited in geography in making this a 57 percent Obama district, but I think it should lean Democrat in most years. The previous 10th district was a Republican gerrymander, as Kathy Pastor's 11th took out heavy Dem precincts in downtown St. Pete, which are put into the 10th in this map. This is probably a tossup with Bill Young running, but once he retires it should be a Democratic pickup.
FL 11:
Old district: 66 O 33 M
New district: 57 O 43 M
The 11th is unpacked in order to help the 9th and 10th. Keeps some Democratic leaning areas of Tampa, but is forced to swing south to Bradenton to add more Democratic precincts. 22 percent Hispanic and 18 percent black.
FL 12:
Old district: 49 O 50 M
New district: 43 O 56 M
GOP vote sink in central Florida.
FL 13:
Old district: 47 O 52 M
New district: 42 O 58 M
GOP vote sink in the suburbs of Tampa and Bradenton.
FL 14:
Old district: 42 O 57 M
New district: 56.5 O 43.5 M
Yuck! This district stretches from Fort Myers to Port Charlotte all the way up to Kissimmee. Unfortunately there aren't quite enough Democratic areas in southwest Florida to keep this district centered there, so I snagged some minority heavy precincts in Polk County on the way to Kissimmee. It is an absolutely disgusting district, but it gets the job done.
FL 15:
Old district: 48 O 51 M
New district: 40 O 60 M
GOP vote sink in central/eastern Florida. The line going up the center of the district is the carve out of all the Democratic areas.
FL 16:
Old district: 47 O 52 M
New district: 42 O 57 M
GOP vote sink in south/central Florida. Includes Republican areas of Fort Meyers, Sarasota, and Port Charlotte.
FL 17:
Old district: 87 O 12 M
New district: 60.7 O 39.3 M
Welcome to Miami! The previously AA majority 17th is shifted to help crack Hialeah and the center of the Cuban Republicans. Black heavy precincts at the northern edge of Miami-Dade County are enough to offset the Cuban Republicans, although this is now a 72 percent Hispanic district. 22 percent black.
FL 18:
Old district: 49 O 51 M
New district: 60.4 O 39.6 M
Another district that helps crack the Republican areas of Miami. Starts in West Hialeah to take in heavy Cuban areas, than swings across Coral Gables up to South Beach, downtown Miami, and North Miami Beach. 60 percent Hispanic and 25 percent black.
FL 19:
Old district: 65 O 34 M
New district: 67 O 33 M
I could probably have made this district more Republican, but it would be unnecessary. Most of the white liberal areas of Broward County. Majority-minority and white plurality (48.5 percent).
FL 20:
Old district: 63 O 36 M
New district: 60.4 O 39.6 M
The third district that helps crack the Cuban Republican vote. However, white liberal and black majority areas are more than enough to make this a safe Democratic district.
FL 21:
Old district: 49 O 51 M
New district: 60.8 O 39.2 M
A truly bizarre district that is a communities of interest nightmare. Takes in rural areas west of the Tri-county area, then picks up random pockets of Democrat precincts in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties. The fourth district that cracks the Cuban Republican vote in Miami-Dade. Hispanic plurality at 46 percent.
FL 22:
Old district: 52 O 48 M
New district: 59.6 O 40.4 M
Bye bye Allen West! The hideous gerrymander of the 22nd ends, as a surprisingly clean district will end the short career of Florida's most outspoken representative. Palm Beach County will end up yielding two Democratic districts.
FL 23:
Old district: 83 O 17 M
New district: 64.8 O 35.2 M
Thankfully, the new 23rd will probably end the career of the corrupt Alcee Hastings. Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, parts of Boca Raton, and Coral Springs will make this a solid Democratic district. Now white majority at 63 percent.
FL 24:
Old district: 49 O 51 M
New district: 57.3 O 42.7 M
Another COI nightmare that gets the job done. There just weren't enough Democratic areas in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie Counties to create a Dem leaning district, so I stretched this district all the way to eastern Fort Meyers to take in some more Democratic areas. Belle Glade gave me some 85+ Obama precincts along the way. Unfortunately I still needed a few more Democratic votes, so I swung the district into Palm Beach to finish off what is probably the grossest district in this map.
FL 25:
Old district: 49 O 50 M
New district: 59.1 O 40.9 M
This is the fifth and final district that helps crack the Cuban Republican vote in Miami-Dade. Heavy Democrat areas in Homestead are more than enough to eliminate the corrupt David Rivera from Congress.
FL 26:
Old district: NA
New district: 56.1 O 43.9 M
Centered on southern Orlando and Kissimmee, this new district is majority-minority (49 percent white), but quickly adding Hispanic voters (34 percent). Will become more Democratic in time.
FL 27:
Old district: NA
New district: 40.4 O 59.6 M
GOP vote sink in Naples and Cape Coral.
So there we have it. 18 Democratic districts in the state of Florida! Yes, this map will never happen (even if the Dems did have the legislature and FDF didn't passed the VRA would not allow this map to pass), but 18 Democratic districts is pretty good for a state Obama won with 51 percent. This map shows that the concentration of Democratic voters in the cities is hurting them when it comes to redistricting. It will be interesting to see what the Florida Republicans come up with for the new map.