Nobody was particularly expecting the 3rd Day of Redistmas (with Illinois and California being the first two) to come out of Michigan, a state where the Republicans control the redistricting trifecta thanks to Rick Sndyer's gubernatorial win and flipping the state House. As a result, the map that we're seeing today, proposed by the Senate GOP, is likely to be at least reasonably close to the final result, unless something odd happens in conference between them and the House GOP.
You can click on the map above for a closer look, and better yet, look at the full pdf, which also includes detail maps of the Detroit metropolitan area and a full list of what counties (and, where counties are split, what townships and cities) go in what districts.
The net result, as expected by virtually all observers, is a loss of one Democratic seat (and no Republican seats), solidifying the map at 9 R and 5 D. The two Dems who get pitted against each other are MI-09's Gary Peters and MI-12's Sandy Levin. This may turn into a big primary: 79-year-old Levin seems bent on running again, while Peters has been doing some active fundraising too (although he's floated other possibilities too, like a potential run for Oakland Co. Executive).
The winner gets a district that's pretty safely Democratic, spanning the lower reaches of both suburban Macomb and Oakland Counties, areas that have gotten significantly more African-American over the last decade as families have been moving out of Detroit. However, the biggest African-American node in the suburbs, Pontiac, as well as several other AA suburbs, like Southfield and Royal Oak, are now part of MI-14, thanks to a strange-looking tendril designed to preserve an African-American majority in both Detroit-based districts. MI-13 is 56.73% African-American and MI-14 is 58.46%, so, in doing so, this map probably steers clear of any VRA problems. (It does take the once-compact 14th and turn it hideously ugly, but that's nothing new in the world of gerrymandering.)
Some other observations:
• Republican frosh Dan Benishek gets a slightly safer MI-01, which now takes in Grand Traverse County (Traverse City).
• MI-03 gets a bit more Democratic and just weirder, as Dem ex-Rep.'s Mark Schauer's hometown of Battle Creek is now here instead of in MI-07 (where he lost in 2010). Could we see Schauer run against uncooperative GOP freshman Justin Amash, and is this an attempt by the state GOP to smackdown Amash while protecting the 7th's Tim Walberg?
• In MI-07, the net result hasn't changed much: hard-right GOPer Walberg loses blueish Battle Creek, but gains the rural parts of Washtenaw County (though not Ann Arbor proper, which still belongs to John Dingell) and also swingy but Dem-friendly Monroe County,
• MI-08 doesn't change much for Mike Rogers, although he picks up some of the GOP-friendly exurban parts of Oakland Co. MI-11 seems to get a bit friendlier for Thad McCotter (or for Marty Knollenberg, if McCotter continues to keep wandering off the reservation). MI-10 stays safe for Candice Miller, with the rural Thumb balancing out the Reagan Dems of Macomb Co.
• The Dean of the House, John Dingell, seems to be all set for another decade, if his health keeps up. The new solidly-Dem MI-12 is tailor-made for him, linking up Ann Arbor with Dearborn (which used to be in John Conyers' district). Likewise, fellow old-timer Dale Kildee gets a safer MI-05, which takes in all of Genesee Co. (home of Flint) and now all of blue-collar Bay City.
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