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St. Pete Times Forum, home of the 2012 GOP convention
St. Pete Times Forum, home of the 2012 GOP convention

It's question no. 1 for election junkies: Who is going to be the Republican nominee in 2012? The answer, if you attended Daily Kos editor Arjun Jaikumar's panel on the topic at Netroots Nation earlier today, is Mitt Romney — probably. All the panelists, including Slate writer Dave Weigel, former DNC hands Matt Ortega and Kombiz Lavasany, and Dkos editor Jake McIntyre, agreed that Romney is by far the most imposing candidate the likeliest to score the GOP nod. But why?

Jake has long stuck to his "establishment candidate" theory, which served him well in 2008 when he consistently predicted John McCain would be the nominee even during his darkest days. This thesis doesn't necessarily favor the candidate who is the most acceptable to the GOP establishment (though it usually is), but rather the person with the longest record of service and, often, a prior run under their belt. In 2008, that was most clearly McCain, while now, that role falls to Romney, as none of the other major contenders have run before.

Romney has other advantages as well. The most obvious is money — he's crushing the rest of the field in fundraising and will likely continue to do so. But Weigel, who spends a lot of time listening to what actual Republican voters have to say, made another important observation. Romney has been laser-focused on jobs and the economy, and that helps to mask his various sins and apostasies, ranging from Romneycare to gay rights. Weigel says that Republicans he talks to are beginning to make excuses for themselves so that they can get behind the more electable Romney, rather than vote with their hearts for someone else…

Like, say, Michele Bachmann, who was universally agreed-upon as the most likely person to derail a Romney candidacy. The biggest wildcard is the rise of the Tea Party movement, which threatens to disrupt the old "establishment candidate" order. As Jake said, if you had said a year ago that Bachmann would be a serious contender for the Republican crown, he'd have called you crazy. But then we saw candidates like Christine O'Donnell soar to popularity with Republicans in her home state, which really has to make us rethink our normal calculus.

Can Bachmann do it? It would take a much more disciplined campaign than she's ever run in the past, but she got off to a good start by not drooling into the lectern at the first debate last week (benefitting from the proverbial soft bigotry of low, low expectations). And of course she'll be able to raise scads of money thanks to her national fundraising base. I also think she has greater appeal to evangelicals than anyone in the race, with Mike Huckabee out. But will she pull it off? The panelists agreed it would be a tough row to hoe.

As for other possibilities, well, no candidates really got much credit from the speakers. Tim Pawlenty was seen as too afraid to attack Romney after wimping out at the debate. Jon Huntsman is undoubtedly a Beltway media creation. Everyone hates Newt Gingrich, and Sarah Palin has nothing resembling discipline. (Plus isn't she on vacation?) The biggest remaining name is probably Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has been flirting with a run in recent weeks. Kombiz said he gets a Fred Thompson-esque vibe from Perry and thinks his heart might not really be in it. Matt wondered if the nation is really far enough away from Bush to be ready to elect another Texas governor, particularly one who hasn't governed his state well. But as Jake said, if Perry got in, he'd at least shake things up.

So that's the betting line, folks. The safe money is on Romney, but the real gamblers might want to lay out some coin on Bachmann. But these sorts of things always come with a huge caveat, as the panelists themselves will all tell you. Not only are the primaries half a year away, but we don't even know exactly when they'll happen, or what order they'll take place in. Like they say about baseball, it's why they play the games. A lot can happen between now and the GOP convention in August of 2012, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if everything we know now gets turned topsy-turvy by then.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Here is what I know (16+ / 0-)

    It may seem like Romney is the obvious choice, but the process of primaries with a GOP electorate makes his selection very difficult. But ALL the choices have a difficult path to the nomination. I am certainly not going to make a prediction.

    I think this is good news for John McCain. /snark

    I call it "the Breathing Syndrome." When Obama breathes in, they will criticize him for using air. When he exhales, they will complain about pollution. If he holds his breath, they will attack him for doing nothing.

    by Tuba Les on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:06:23 PM PDT

  •  I think it will be Romney (6+ / 0-)

    He's stiff enough, good looking enough, and dumb enough. His biggest problem is Limbaugh and the hard right.

    •  I hope it's Romney. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mariken, James Allen

      Romney has been laser-focused on jobs and the economy, and that helps to mask his various sins and apostasies...

      If Romney's the nominee and keeps talking like that, then maybe Obama will start talking about jobs, as well.  Hell, maybe it'll even prompt the White House to actually come up with an aggressive jobs plan.  

      "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

      by machopicasso on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 01:27:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      caul, paintitblue

      It would be fitting if republican­s handed Mitt Romney the nomination and the tea party members gave him their full support. No candiate would highlight their hypocrisy more. The man is a former pro-choice governor who supported gay rights, gun control, comprehens­ive immigratio­n reform, combating climate change, fought for health care mandates, and who attended Planned Parenthood  fundraiser­s.

      Of course, Romney is attempting to walk away from his past policies, but these aren’t policies that he can simply walk away from. These very policies are the curse and bane of the modern GOP. And many of these policies are also part of the core arguments that Republican­s have used for more than three years to vilify President Obama. A Romney nomination undercuts these arguments and exposes their hypocrisy for all to see. The elites of the GOP understand this, which explains in part why FreedomWor­ks has already begun an effort to knee-cap the Romney campaign.

      When the GOP debates seriously get underway beyond the introduction phase, you can count on a Republican opponent pointing out the inconvenie­nt truths about Romney. It probably wont be the timid Tim Pawlenty, but you can bet that Michele Bachmann is more than willing to take him on, especially with Ed Rollins on her team.  It was a tough balancing act for Barack Obama to answer the attacks of Hillary Clinton, and it will be even more of challange for Romney.  How Romney handles himself during these attacks may determine his fate.  I'm guessing that he will stumble, and Bachmann will play the victim.

  •  That is one ugly structure by the way (5+ / 0-)

    but I am still standing by my original prediction:  Romney

  •  Still think dark-horse could emerge at convention (4+ / 0-)

    when NO candidate has enough for nomination.  I'm thinking Palin is hoping for such a moment, so she can ride in on her bus and save the day.

  •  They Also Repeat Formulas That Show Promise. (12+ / 0-)

    The 2008 formula was moderate insider supported by archconservative fundy sidekick.

    If we hadn't been in the midst of a global economic crash during the final months, that would've been a much more competitive ticket. If in addition to that, the establishment guy hadn't been so disoriented and incompetent, it might've won.

    Replace McCain with the much more competent and younger Romney, who also has executive experience, and replace Palin with a fundamentalist who can talk convincingly --Bachmann or Huckabee, both of whom know how to talk populist enough, sane enough in public and lunatic enough behind the curtains.

    They've twice won with the incompetent populist at the top of the ticket and the insider puppeteer as vice president. The other can win and work for them too.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:10:04 PM PDT

    •  That's a good analysis, but who would be the (0+ / 0-)

      fundy sidekick who hasn't already denounced Romney's positions on pre-2010 Romney?

      For someone to be a true fundy believer, they would have to not accept the previous Romney positions on a number of things, and wheile that's possible, it then dilutes their appeal as a true fundy believer.  You'd have two flip floppers and no anchor on the right.

      Avg. Medicaid cost to New Jersey: $1936 per child per year. Avg cost of helicopter commute for Governor: $2300 per hour. Guess which one Christie wants to cut back on?

      by Inland on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:45:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  been there, done that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Bush I decried St Ronnie's supply side plans as "Voodoo Economics".  He started singing a different tune when he got on the ticket as VP.

        Comfort the afflicted. Afflict the comfortable.

        by FindingMyVoice on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 09:19:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That was the REVERSE situation: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          FindingMyVoice

          Ronnie was the revolutionary, Bush I was to shore up moderates and the establishment.  Nobody expected purity from Bush I, everyone asssumed it was inherent in Reagan.

          Avg. Medicaid cost to New Jersey: $1936 per child per year. Avg cost of helicopter commute for Governor: $2300 per hour. Guess which one Christie wants to cut back on?

          by Inland on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 05:12:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •   I was thinking in terms of (0+ / 0-)

            the veep candidate trashing the ideas of the prez nominee during the primaries.   Point taken.  

            It's going to be an interesting primary season - stocking up on popcorn now.
             

            Comfort the afflicted. Afflict the comfortable.

            by FindingMyVoice on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 05:50:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  But the GOP electorate is strange (0+ / 0-)

      Especially now. I think the one thing they seem to hate above everything else is being told what to do.

      That's how O'Donnell got the nomination - everybody was so damn sure Castle would win, the sane people stayed home, and the crazies won out.

      If the media keeps promoting Romney, we're likely to see the same thing happen, in the first few primaries anyway.

      Everybody just KNOWS Romney will win, the polls all show that - so the sane people don't bother to turn out, which leaves only the crazies - and no media is telling THEM who's going to win.

  •  Do the "Religious Right" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    think that Mormanism is a valid religion?

  •  The bread crumb topcrust on a MN hotdish (9+ / 0-)

    is more inspiring than TPaw.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

    by MTmofo on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:11:16 PM PDT

  •  I am more concerned who our candidate should be. (0+ / 0-)

     

    Some...spoke with strong and powerful voices, which proclaimed in accents trumpet-tongued,"I am beautiful, and I rule". Others murmured in tones scarcely audible, but exquisetly soft and sweet, "I am little, and I am beloved"." Armandine A.L. Dupin

    by Kvetchnrelease on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:11:54 PM PDT

  •  The Repubicans are so bizarre (9+ / 0-)

    it's really hard to tell what freak show they'll finally land on. It looks like Romney at the moment, but he's not batshit insane and that seems to be a deal-breaker for today's modern Republican.

  •  This meme about Pawlenty (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross, LordMike, MadEye, Matt Z

    being a wimp or afraid of Romney is silly, and something propagated by the Romney campaign and then lapped up by the gullible media.

    First off, this was the candidates' first widely televised debate and Pawlenty may well have decided that he didn't want to come across as negative or attacking, so that his introduction to voters would be as a positive campaigner/"good Republican".

    Second, everyone (including right-wing blogs) knew ahead of time that Pawlenty had decided not to attack Romney that night. It was reported. So this should have been no surprise.

    Third, resisting the baiting of a TV host (John King) who is essentially daring you to abandon your strategy and instead attack your strongest opponent, actually shows some discretion and... yes, fortitude.

    Yes, it's a better story for the geniuses and strutters in the media to say Pawlenty is not a "real man." But the example is not compelling, and by the way, there's another candidate the press criticized for not attacking aggressively enough in early debates back in 2007, and he now resides in the White House.

  •  Romney is the closest in the polls to Obama (11+ / 0-)

    and their top goal is to defeat Obama, therefore many will vote for Romney because he is the most likely to defeat Obama, regardless of Romney's flaws.

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:16:13 PM PDT

    •  Agree - the GOP's first objective is to (6+ / 0-)

      beat the President.  They will vote for whoever the nominee is and if a Tea Party favorite gets the VP nod, they will go all in.

      "I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel." Maya Angelou

      by ahumbleopinion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:26:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      Primary will swing but at the end Romney will win as the Anti-Obama.

      So Obama needs to beat Romney to the punch on the issues he is playing to and beat the shit out of Republicans every time they go against those issues or fail to use their House majority to legislate on them starting with Jobs.

      What about my Daughter's future?

      by koNko on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 11:12:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The problem is those polls up till now have not (0+ / 0-)

      included Bachmann as a declared candidate.  At least, I haven't seen any since the debate.

      "I wish we had a thousand Keith Olbermanns running things, because at least he fucking gets it" -- wolverinethad

      by caul on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 04:14:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  that's the sane Republicans (0+ / 0-)

      that's not always who votes in the primary.

      And while most of our voters seem to look to the general when they pick a candidate, the GOP primary voter often seems to be looking at who will mess up the polls, piss off the establishment, or yell the loudest.

  •  We are fortunate that the Rebublican bench (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    consists of AA ball utility infielders who can't hit even hit off-speed stuff.

    Roman Catholic by birth---thoroughly confused by life.

    by alasmoses on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:16:30 PM PDT

  •  Romney Isn't Quite Insane Enough. (3+ / 0-)

    Grifter Palin, Bachmann, and darkhorse Virginia Foxx. When the Goopers are in doubt, bet on Batshit every time.

  •  I think Perry could win the nomination.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Kimball Cross, caul, Matt Z

    ....and crash and burn in the general.

    I'm rooting for him, in fact.

    Ideology is an excuse to ignore common sense.

    by Bush Bites on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:17:47 PM PDT

  •  Michele Bachmann vs. Barack Obama in the General! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross, caul, Matt Z

    (Crazy vs. Logic!)

    Let the debate begin!

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:23:44 PM PDT

  •  Huntsman finished second in the (5+ / 0-)

    straw poll just held at the RLC in Louisiana.

    Of course, Ron Paul won, and there are strong rumors, not explicitly denied by Huntsman people, that Huntsman paid for that finish.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:25:53 PM PDT

  •  What is not... (4+ / 0-)

    ..being discussed is that if it appears Romney is going to secure the nomination, it will cause chaos within the Republican party.

    Because Romney is the type buttoned-down establishment conservative teabaggers hate.

    Romney's nomination will not move the teabaggers to the center.

    Romney's nomination will cause a shitstorm to break out in the Republican party.

    Fixed News hates Romney, for one.  Fixed wants somebody from their stable of Murdockian marionettes to get the nomination.

    Boss Limbaugh, being the two-faced asshat he is, will immediately get behind a Romney nomination if Romney is nominated.

    But the teabaggers will have none of it.

    I'll be interesting to see who will try to step in & stop the GOP internecine if Romney is nominated.

    When Fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in excess body fat and carrying a misspelled sign.

    by wyvern on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:35:04 PM PDT

  •  ReThug ldrship Conf on CSPAN live, Brian Lamb (2+ / 0-)

    doesn't have DailyKos on because of course he's just another corporatist.  There is probably ten times more people at NN and the ReThug conference, but the Main Stream media sense that the ReThugs are going to completely take over in a year, so they are making their bets.


    80% of SUCCESS is

    JUST

    showing up

    by Churchill on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:36:28 PM PDT

  •  I think if Perry runs, he wins the nomination (5+ / 0-)

    He is an outspoken critic of Obama, so that really generates enthusiasm with the base. Texas is the model for conservative economic policy so that would help him beat Romney's business experience. And of course, he is more conservative on social issues than Mitt. Romney is the frontrunner, but only because of the weak field.

  •  Romney (5+ / 0-)

    Hey, I know you all want to know what Chris Matthews thinks!

    On his show (The CM Show, not Hardball), he talked about a poll of Republicans that had 45% of Repubs thinking Romney could beat Obama. So, the thought is they will rally around the candidate they think can win, regardless of their other feelings about him.

    Also, historically, according to Chris, Republicans almost always go with the original early front runner.

    America is so not like her hype.

    by OLinda on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:44:49 PM PDT

    •  more (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      koNko, caul

      Another comment from Chris was apparently Huntsman met recently with G H W Bush. The old establishment may be waiting to see if he gets in.

      America is so not like her hype.

      by OLinda on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:47:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He has already announced (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        virginislandsguy, OLinda

        Sort of.

        My take is this is a trial run for 2016.

        Huntsman has great appeal to corporatist types and es waelthy enough to spend the next 5 years campaigning.

        He got the taste as Ambassador to China. He sees himself in the job. Wife ready to redecorate the Oval Office.

        What about my Daughter's future?

        by koNko on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 11:26:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed. Huntsman is punching his ticket for '16 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          FiredUpInCA, OLinda

          Part of getting the R nom is it's 'your turn'. Romney and Huckabee finished first tier to McCain, so it's Romneys turn in '12. Huntsman needs to finish in the top 3.

          My money is on Romney/Bachmann or Romney/Ryan.

          Zen and the Art of Penis Truck Maintenance

          by virginislandsguy on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 06:38:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Does McCain make Romney less inevitable? (5+ / 0-)

    This whole "safe choice" thing -- I'm not so sure about it.

    It seems to me that McCain's failure makes Romney a less likely candidate. For one thing, Romney lost to McCain last time around. For another, the "establishment" candidate didn't exactly light the place up.

    Seems to me that neither Ronald Reagan nor George W. Bush (really!  That would have been McCain in 2000) were the establishment candidates when they ran for their first terms, but both had followed failed establishment candidates (Gerald Ford and Bob Dole).

    Could this year repeat the pattern

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:49:11 PM PDT

  •  One thing that's different this year (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Kimball Cross, Matt Z

    will be that most delegates will be chosen in states with proportional representation. Winner-Take-All is prohibited until April (I believe), so unlike McLame, the frontrunner doesn't rack up delegates by Super Tuesday. As I read it, PA and NC are the only decent-sized states that will still be able to
    do so: NY, CA, IL, TX, OH, FL ... nope.

  •  I've been in that building (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross

    and had no idea it was so freaking big!

  •  So how do we help Bachmann help us? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross
    Like, say, Michele Bachmann, who was universally agreed-upon as the most likely person to derail a Romney candidacy.

    During these days in which we're afforded the freedom of not having to fight amongst ourselves over a Democratic primary, it's my humble opinion that we should do our best to spend this time tossing cog after cog into the Republican machine.

    In this case, it means "helping" Bachmann against Romney, but not in a way that helps Bachmann (or any Republican) against President Obama.  The catch is that those cogs can't be traced back to democratic supporters; they need to appear to be genuine attacks against Romney from genuine Bachmann devotees.  The Republican party built up the religious right, and it's time to use that against them.  In this case, the evangelicals' belief that Mormons are a blasphemous cult is a belief that can be exploited for our gain.  Encourage them to fight amongst themselves and warm up your best batch of popcorn while we watch them tear themselves apart.

    ---
    I look at you all; see the love there that's sleeping. - G.H.
    I really love a lot, but I fight the one's that fight me. - M.I.A.

    by hey mister on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 06:58:24 PM PDT

  •  Too early to tell (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross

    Of course.  Romney is the obvious frontrunner based on his ability to raise money.  But, this thing won't start to jell until after Labor Day because the remaining cast of major GOP players isn't in play yet.  

    None of the current Republicans can compete with Romney in terms of money or mainstream RNC support.  Huntsman may have a chance to challenge Romney as the candidate supported by the insider Republicans but that depends on his fundraising future.  He's not a crazy person like most of the rest of the GOP candidates and might crank up some support among the independents that will decide the election, we'll see.

    Perry and Palin will hang back until late summer because they can and once they come in, if they do, it will throw the Republican primaries into total disarray because those two whacks will have total GOP base support but will scare off independents.  And the Republican powerbrokers will know it.  They are not electable.

    The problem Obama has, assuming he doesn't draw total lunatics like Palin, Perry or Bachman as opponents in the gen election, is the economy.  If the Republicans cant get somebody at least remotely mainstream like Romney, Huntsman or Pawlenty past their insane base into the general election, the economy will control....like it always does.

  •  Bachmann should be the odds on favorite. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oldcrow, caul, Matt Z

    She is Teabagger rapped up in a pretty bow.  She is Religious Right Evangelical Fundamentalist and worships at the altar of Mammon.  As such the Wall Street crowd has no problem with her either.  She is the only candidate on the table right now that is acceptable to each one of the Republican Core Constituencies.

    A person's character is measured by how they treat everyone. Not just your pet group.

    by Tempus Figits on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:22:24 PM PDT

  •  I'm at NN11. I watched that panel. Fascinating. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken

    I agree that Romney's the early leader and has many advantages, but we're still a half a year from the first primaries and many things can happen.

    For relevant sci-fi and fantasy, go to http://www.betty-cross-author.net/

    by Kimball Cross on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:32:10 PM PDT

  •  Jeb Bush (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bluefin

    and the entire Bush family and the cartels and crime families that have given them so much power...are probably praying like crazy that there's a deadlocked convention next year...in order for those cartels...to get themselves back into the driver's seat again.

  •  a Romney-Bachman ticket: deadly duo /nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    virginislandsguy

    I am off my metas! Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above join the DAILY KOS UNIVERSITY "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03)

    by annieli on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:41:51 PM PDT

  •  A second 'vote' for Bachmann (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bluefin, caul, Matt Z, mmacdDE

    unless Perry gets in, sincerely, bachmann could squeak it out, the Rethug 'base' is not logical or 'reality based', it's way to addled to vote for an unliked front runner, just because of theoritical 'electability'. Remember, the tehadists think most people think/believe what they do, and are being fooled or cheated, not that they, the teahadists, are screaming loonies.

    May you live in interesting times--Chinese curse

    by oldcrow on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:48:27 PM PDT

  •  Bachman scares me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JugOPunch

    Perry scares me because unemployment is much lower in Texas than in the rest of the country, and Pawlenty scares me.  Romney seems a decent campaigner, and he scares me as well.

    Bachman is a better performer than I though, and she may be most dangerous of all.

    So they appear to me to have 4 decent candidates.

    Really, it doesn't matter.  Tell me what U3 is and I will tell you wins.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:56:57 PM PDT

  •  BTW, what date was set for NN 2012 in Provinceton? (0+ / 0-)

    I've googled for it. I get location. No date.

    "Misfortune shows those who are not really friends." Aristotle Fuldheim's long and distinguished career - where, at age 91, .,,,. suffered a stroke on July 27, 1984, shortly after interviewing U.S. President Ronald Reagan via satellite.

    by JugOPunch on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 08:22:03 PM PDT

  •  Texas economy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bluefin, caul

    It's not as magical as Perry quacks about and won't stand up to scrutiny if the right questions get asked.  We have a 13 to 25 billion dollar deficit depending on who you listen to.  It's really quite astonishing the way everyone (including the NY Times) indicates how great everything is in Texas when quite the contrary is true.  Huge cuts from the legislature in education, etc.

    I watched him on CSPAN tonight at some sort of Republican Governors' self-congatulatory jerk-off session that's going on in Louisiana.  He yahoo'ed and postured up like the jerkweed he is.  I truly hope he runs and ends up as the Republican nominee.  His Texas good old boy BS won't fly in a national electon.

    •  His Texas good old boy BS won't fly in a national (0+ / 0-)

      That's odd, it seemed to fly pretty well in 2000 and 2004, although it's fair to say that Bush campaigned as a moderate conservative in 2000, something that Perry cannot do with any plausibility.

      Regardless, the Teabaggers will never accept Romney, and once Perry announces he'll rocket to the top of the GOP polls.

    •  Huge cuts from the legislature in education, etc. (0+ / 0-)

      That may be a liability for Perry in a general election. However, for the majority of the GOP base that decides who their nominee is, cuts in education are a positive because they hate public education with a passion. Learning the Bible is all they think that is needed.

  •  Tea party will get in line (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken

    with MiTT.  So will Evangelicals. They'll have soft support at first, but it'll gradually firm up after Labor Day 2012 as Obama puts on his populist mask & hits the college campuses.

    "There ain't no sanity clause." Chico Marx

    by DJ Rix on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 01:20:25 AM PDT

  •  I think it will be Bachmann (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, mmacdDE

    1) She raises lots of money.  Maybe not as much as multiple choice Mitt, but lots.  In her congressional campaigns, she was one of the top fundraisers of the 435.

    2) The other candidates haven't started attacking Mitt for his occasional acts of sanity.  But they will.  Let him lead in a couple more polls and they will be out with daggers.

    3) A lot of Republicans - esp. the sort who vote in primaries - still think Mormonism is a cult.  But that sort of view will, I think, be reflected more in actual vote than in responses to pollsters.  People don't like to appear like bigots when answering questions.  But the voting booth is another matter.  A lot of people will get in that booth and then think "I just can't vote for a Mormon".  

    4) She will have an army of devoted fans; much more than Romney.

    Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

    by plf515 on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 03:10:20 AM PDT

  •  It Would Be Fitting (0+ / 0-)

    It would be fitting if republican­s handed Mitt Romney the nomination and the tea party members gave him their full support. No candiate would highlight their hypocrisy more. The man is a former pro-choice governor who supported gay rights, gun control, comprehens­ive immigratio­n reform, combating climate change, fought for health care mandates, and who attended Planned Parenthood fundraiser­s.

    Of course, Romney is attempting to walk away from his past policies, but these aren’t policies that he can simply walk away from. These very policies are the curse and bane of the modern GOP. And many of these policies are also part of the core arguments that Republican­s have used for more than three years to vilify President Obama. A Romney nomination undercuts these arguments and exposes their hypocrisy for all to see. The elites of the GOP understand this, which explains in part why FreedomWor­ks has already begun an effort to knee-cap the Romney campaign.

    When the GOP debates seriously get underway beyond the introduction phase, you can count on a Republican opponent pointing out the inconvenie­nt truths about Romney. It probably wont be the timid Tim Pawlenty, but you can bet that Michele Bachmann is more than willing to take him on, especially with Ed Rollins on her team.  It was a tough balancing act for Barack Obama to answer the attacks of Hillary Clinton, and it will be even more of challange for Romney.  How Romney handles himself during these attacks may determine his fate.  I'm guessing that he will stumble.

  •  Unless the estabishment corrals the tea-partiers (0+ / 0-)

    Unless the establishment corrals the tea-partiers, I don't see Romney getting the nod. i know it's easy to dismiss the tea-partiers as unruly children, but look how horribly the current debt ceiling debate has turned. It now looks like the eternal third-rail of US politics, Social Security, is actually going to take a serious hit. All because the tea-partiers in the House are very serious about not raising the ceiling. I mean...when AARP caves, you know you have serious power.

    Romney may get the nod simply by the fact that he has deep-enough pockets to out-last his rivals through the primaries. I'm not convinced, though, that those deep pockets will be able to give him a lock on the nomination going into the convention. If not...If Mitt hasn't secured the nomination by then, the GOP convention is going to be a horror-fest.

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