There has certainly been a lot of focus on the Old Dominion lately, much of which stems from the Democrats' tenuous 22-18 majority in the State Senate, currently the only thing blocking complete Republican control over the state. Republicans need to win two seats in order to gain control of the Senate, as a 20-20 split would give Republican Lt. Governor Bill Bolling the tie-breaking vote. I've written up an analysis of how redistricting has affected the districts that are competitive (or at least potentially competitive) this year, and what the outlook is for each seat, at least from 4 1/2 months out. Let's start with a nice little chart of the races to watch:
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
21st (Edwards)
29th (Colgan)
31st (open)
33rd (Herring)
36th (Puller)
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1st (Miller)
6th (Northam)
37th (Marsden)
39th (Barker)
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17th (Houck)
20th (Reynolds)
38th (Puckett)
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10th (Watkins)
13th (open)
22nd (open)
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DK's diary system won't let me color-code these seats, but it's easy enough to read, as the only Republican seats on the chart are in the "Likely R" category. After the jump is detailed commentary on each race. A quick note on the formatting: the district number contains a link to the Virginia Public Access Project's page, which will give you information on who's running, the statewide margins from 2009 and 2008, and how redistricting has affected the district. I cannot speak more highly of VPAP, it's an excellent resource for state elections. After the incumbent, I've listed the localities that the district totally or partially encompasses.
Also, regarding party nominations: Virginia's system is rather unique, and is probably a holdover from the state's bygone era of machine politics. The parties can opt to have a regular primary or a nominating convention (if there's an incumbent in a seat, he/she gets to choose, otherwise the local party committee make the selection). The parties have moved towards primaries for most nominations of late, but there are a few seats in the list that have nominations occurring by convention: for the Democrats, it's the 10th and 13th districts, and for the Republicans, it's the 6th, 17th, 29th, and 38th districts. So other challengers could emerge between now and mid-August (the deadline for nominations) in those six districts (this is most important in the 10th and 29th, where no challenger has stepped forward yet). Otherwise the parties are stuck with whoever filed by the June 15 deadline.
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Seats Held by Democrats
1st: John Miller (Hampton, James City, Newport News, Suffolk, Williamsburg, York)
Redistricting analysis: Miller's district is significantly reconfigured to make it much more favorable for him; the African-American population is upped from 24% to 33%, and much of the territory in the old district is dropped (northern Hampton, Poquoson and York County) in favor of Democrat-friendly territory in northern Newport News and the City of Williamsburg. In 2007, Miller won 51-49 over Tricia Stall; the precincts removed from the district went 53-47 for Stall, while the ones Miller retained went for him 55-45.
Outlook: Miller's opponent is Mickey Chohany, a businessman who served one term on the Williamsburg City Council. I expect it will be a close election; the district remains swingy, having voted 54-46 for McDonnell in 2009. However, I think Republicans missed an opportunity to find a stronger candidate here, especially since the majority of the district is in Newport News.
6th: Ralph Northam (Accomack, Mathews, Norfolk, Northampton, Virginia Beach)
Redistricting analysis: Northam's district didn't change much; it had to expand, so it pulls in some favorable territory for Democrats: Old Dominion University and the liberal Ghent neighborhood. It also drops a few Republican precincts from Virginia Beach and eastern Norfolk. Not much need for the before/after numbers to be crunched; suffice it to say, it went from 58% McDonnell down to 54% McDonnell.
Outlook: Northam has appeal throughout the district, being a pediatric neurologist at CHKD in Norfolk and having grown up on the Eastern Shore. When he defeated Sen. Nick Rerras in 2007, he carried all five localities in the district. Three Republicans are running for their party's nomination, which will be determined by a convention: '08 VA-02 candidate Ben Loyola, '09 House of Delegates candidate John Amiral, and physician Joanne Lapetina. Loyola would seem to be the favored candidate, as he's ran a serious campaign before (Amiral's run for the House of Delegates was a disaster) and has deep pockets that he can use to finance his campaign, but he had to move into the district to run there, so he has no base (there's one precinct from Virginia Beach in the 6th). [UPDATE: Amiral has since dropped out of the race.]
17th: Edd Houck (Albemarle, Culpeper, Fredericksburg, Louisa, Orange, Spotsylvania)
Redistricting analysis: Much of the western end of the district is dropped; Madison County in its entirety is removed from the 17th, along with parts of Culpeper and Louisa. A few precincts in Spotsylvania are also removed. The district now stretches into eastern Albemarle County. Houck won 56-44 in 2007; the removed precincts voted 52-48 for him, leaving precincts that went 58-42 for him. The district's performance in 2009 drops from 67% McDonnell to 61% McDonnell; a strong improvement for the Democrats, to be sure, but it seems unlikely that this district will remain in Democrats' hands once Houck retires.
Outlook: Houck's margin slipped in 2007; after winning 60-40 in both '99 and '03, he only won 56-44 in 2007, despite outspending his opponent nearly 3-1. His opponent this time is Spotsylvania County businessman Bryce Reeves, assuming no other Republican jumps in between now and the nominating convention. This one's probably going to be close, but Houck has a long tenure in the Senate and has shown the ability to hold a pretty conservative district.
20th: Roscoe Reynolds (Carroll, Danville, Franklin, Galax, Halifax, Henry, Martinsville, Patrick, Pittsylvania)
Redistricting analysis: the western end of the district is chopped off, and the district instead heads east. Floyd, Grayson, and Wythe Counties are removed, as is a chunk of Carroll County. Added are the City of Danville and Halifax County, along with parts of Franklin and Pittsylvania Counties. It cuts the Republican margin here significantly: what was a 67% McDonnell district is now only 60% McDonnell. The district even almost went for Obama in 2008. Reynolds won 63-37 in '07; the removed precincts went 58-42 for him, leaving precincts that gave him a 66-34 margin.
Outlook: Reynolds hasn't had a serious challenge since he was elected in 1996. In 2007, he easily dispatched Republican Jeff Evans; Evans is running again, but this time, has decided to run as an independent. Reynolds has to be happy about that news. The Republican nominee is 19th District Sen. Bill Stanley, who has been in office less than a year, but decided to run in the 20th rather than face a primary with Sen. Ralph Smith. Stanley seems like a strong candidate on paper, but he did only win a middling 61-39 victory in the very Republican 19th district earlier this year.
The one big question mark here is that Reynolds is given a lot of new territory. In theory, it should help him, as it gives him a lot more Democratic voters (the black percentage of the district jumps from 12% to 29%), but this is one of the most unpredictable parts of redistricting: how will the new voters react to an established incumbent? Southside Virginia has also swung hard to the Republicans lately, which adds another level of uncertainty. However, if Jeff Evans stays in the race as an independent, it seems likely that the Republican vote will be split here.
21st: John Edwards (Giles, Montgomery, Roanoke City, Roanoke County)
Redistricting analysis: The borders of this district were massaged a bit; Craig County was dropped, along with a few other precincts, and more of Montgomery County and Roanoke County were added. Partisanwise, this district was unchanged, remaining a 52% McDonnell district. Edwards hasn't had an opponent since '99, so no data from his previous elections is available to analyze.
Outlook: I was expecting this one to be uneventful; Edwards, aside from having the bad luck to share a name with one of the most disliked political figures of the past decade, only had a quixotic Tea Party challenger, Tripp Godsey, for the longest time. At the last minute, Del. Dave Nutter, whose district shares seven precincts with the new 21st Senate district, jumped into the race. I'm not quite sure what to make of it; Edwards is an entrenched incumbent in a district that packs in every Democrat in Roanoke and Blacksburg. The majority of the district's population lives in Roanoke, as does Edwards, so if it turns into a regional fight, Edwards has the advantage. Maybe Nutter is banking on the fact that Edwards hasn't run a campaign in a decade (his last contested election was his unsuccessful attempt to win the Attorney General nomination in 2001; he swept southwestern Virginia but lost by 4% to Don McEachin). Either way, I don't know what to make of this.
29th: Chuck Colgan (Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William)
Redistricting analysis: This district is very different from how it was configured previously. Half of the Prince William County precincts are dropped, and a bunch more stretching east to Dale City are added. This cuts McDonnell's performance from 63% to 55%. Still a swing district, but that's better than it almost being a hopeless cause (for an open seat, anyway) as it was configured previously. Chuck Colgan won 54-46 last time around; the precincts removed went 52-48 for him, leaving precincts that went 56-44 for him. Also notable is the shift in demographics: the old district was 63% white, now it's only 51% white.
Outlook: Colgan is the favorite here; no Republicans have come forward to run yet, and his '07 opponent, Bob FitzSimmonds, is running in the newly-created 13th district. This is still a fairly marginal district, however, so Colgan isn't a safe bet (unless of course nobody ends up running against him). Republicans chose to have a convention rather than a primary in 29th, so they have until August to find a candidate.
31st: open seat (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun)
Redistricting analysis: When the Democrats' redistricting plan was unveiled, this district caused quite a bit of consternation among Virginia bloggers. Formerly an extremely safe Democratic seat centered in Arlington and Falls Church, the district dropped much of its population and added a tendril out to Loudoun County, picking up the Great Falls and McLean areas of northern Fairfax County in the process. However, the majority of the district's population still remains in Arlington. Democratic performance dropped from 65% Deeds to 55% Deeds. Retiring Democrat Mary Whipple only faced a Green Party opponent in 2007, but in 2003, she defeated Republican Kamal Nawash by a 69-30 margin; the removed precincts and remaining ones are both pretty much the same as that margin.
Outlook: There's been a lot of hand-wringing over the Democrats potentially losing this seat, but my opinion is, if they lose this seat, they'll already have lost a half-dozen more vulnerable seats already, so I don't see the point of worrying about it. The Democratic primary is between JAG officer and Whipple advisor Jaime Areizaga-Soto and Arlington County Board member Barbara Favola. The winner will face Republican businesswoman Caren Merrick in November.
33rd: Mark Herring (Fairfax, Loudoun)
Redistricting analysis: This district had to drop a lot of voters. A bunch of Loudoun precincts are removed, as well as a few Fairfax County precincts. A few precincts are added, most notably reliably-Democratic Herndon in northwestern Fairfax, so now the district is centered in eastern Loudoun with a tentacle out to Leesburg. Herring won 57-43 in 2007; the precincts removed went 55-45 for him, leaving precincts that went 59-41 for him. That seems to be a common theme in these districts. McDonnell's percentage in this district dropped from 59% to 55%, a modest improvement for the Democrats.
Outlook: At one point, there were three Republicans running against Herring. Former Del. and current right-wing nutcase Dick Black hit the eject button and parachuted down to the newly-created (and much more Republican) 13th district. There was also some dude named Spike Williams who lost a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors campaign back in '07 (winning 16% in a four-way race) who's instead making an even more quixotic bid for Board of Supervisors Chairman. Left is Herring's '07 opponent, Patricia Phillips, who, as I said in the preceding paragraph, lost 57-43. I don't see what she has going for her this time, given that she'll be running in a more Democratic district. Nevertheless, I can't count this seat as absolutely safe.
36th: Toddy Puller (Fairfax, Prince William, Stafford)
Redistricting analysis: The old 36th stretched from northeastern Fairfax County down into eastern Prince William; though the numbers didn't shift much (it became slightly more Democratic, but it was and still is a 51% Deeds district), a few precincts in Fairfax and several in Prince William were dropped, replaced with other Prince William territory and a dip down into Stafford. Puller was unopposed in '07, but in '03, the removed precincts went 54-46 for her, leaving precincts that went 56-44 for her.
Outlook: Toddy Puller is a three-term incumbent; aside from '07, when she was unopposed, both of her Senate elections were close; she won 55-45 in '03 and 52-48 in '99. Two Republicans are vying to face Puller in the general: former Republican Party of Virginia chairman and former Del. Jeff Frederick and businessman Tito Munoz. Frederick was able to hold a Dem-leaning district in Prince William (with all but two of the precincts in this Senate district) for three terms, but since then has gone on to put his foot in his mouth on more than one occasion, and has become persona non grata among many Republicans. It's hard to say if he still retains popularity in his district; I guess the primary will be the first indication. Either way, I think this is likely a Democratic hold, given that even in 2009 it went for Deeds/Wagner/Shannon (and Frederick's district, left open, flipped to the Democrats). The Republican path to victory is to keep the margin within single-digits in Fairfax and win Prince William, and I'm not sure if Frederick (or this Munoz guy) can do that. I am putting it on the list, though, since Puller has had close elections before, and the district has been reconfigured quite a bit.
37th: Dave Marsden (Fairfax)
Redistricting analysis: Not a huge change, but this already snake-like district becomes even more so with the dropping of some Republican precincts in the Chantilly/Centreville area and the addition of some Democratic precincts in the Burke/Annandale area. We actually have two 50/50 elections we get to analyze here: in 2007, Ken Cuccinelli defeated Democrat Janet Oleszek by a 78-vote margin, and in 2010, Dave Marsden picked up the seat for the Democrats by a 327-vote margin. The precincts removed gave 52% to Cuccinelli and 47% to Marsden in 2007 and 2010, respectively, which would have given Oleszek a 1-point victory and Marsden a 52-48 victory in the remainder of the district. The McDonnell numbers also reflect a slight bump for the Democrats; the district went from 57% to 54% for McDonnell.
Outlook: Marsden, as a Senator with only two years under his belt, should face a stiff challenge. Two Republicans are running: Jason Flanary, a businessman and former legislative assistant, as well as Steve Hunt, Marsden's 2010 opponent. I can't say I've heard anything about this race, but I think Marsden is favored to retain the seat.
38th: Phil Puckett (Bland, Buchanan, Dickenson, Norton, Pulaski, Radford, Russell, Smyth, Tazewell, Wise)
Redistricting analysis: Almost nothing changed here. One precinct in Wythe County gets dropped and a few are added at the eastern and western edges of the district, most notably the city of Radford. The numbers, obviously, barely change: what was a 67% McDonnell district is now a 66% McDonnell district. Nothing can really be done to make this district more Democratic, so I guess it makes sense to maintain it as much as possible, since Puckett has been in this seat for over a decade.
Outlook: Puckett hasn't actually had an opponent since 1999, who he crushed 70-30. During the intervening 12 years, Southwestern Virginia has undergone a sea change, swinging heavily to the Republican Party, particularly in the past few years. He does have an opponent this time, tea partier Adam Light (if the name sounds familiar, he unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination in VA-09 last year). As Republicans chose a convention over a primary in this district, other Republicans may step forward to challenge Puckett by August. More than anything, this race will be a test to see if Puckett, a conservative Democrat, can overcome the Republican turn that this area has taken with his personal popularity and a strong campaign. Working in his favor is that there are no upballot races, so the Republican nominee has no coattails to hang on to.
39th: George Barker (Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William)
Redistricting analysis: Barker was one of the architects of the Senate redistricting plan, so it's a little surprising to see that his district, aside from being massaged around the edges, didn't change that much. It already reached from Prince William County up to the Beltway, so he snagged a few precincts in Alexandria. One precinct in Prince William is dropped, along with several in Fairfax; in all, the dropped precincts went for Barker by a 5-point margin, with the remaining precincts going for Barker by only one percent. I suppose the Alexandria precincts were enough to offset that drop, though, since the McDonnell percentage goes from 55% to 53%.
Outlook: Barker is another freshman from 2007 up for his first re-election bid. Two Republicans are running against Barker, attorney Miller Baker (he's a law firm by himself!) and college professor Scott Martin. Any district with Fairfax and central Prince William in it is going to have some polarized results; don't ask me why, but crossing the Occoquan River is almost like crossing the border between two countries. However, Barker has the advantage of the district's population mostly being on the Fairfax side.
Seats Held By Republicans
10th: John Watkins (Chesterfield, Powhatan, Richmond)
Redistricting analysis: Unfortunately for the Democrats, their dream of a third Richmond-area district was crushed by McDonnell's veto, but on their second drawing of the Senate map, they did make the 10th district significantly less safe. Much of the outer edges of the district in blood-red Amelia and Goochland Counties were dropped, along with Republican portions of Chesterfield, and a bunch of Richmond precincts were added. This cut McDonnell's margin in the district from 67-33 to 59-41, and Obama carried the district 52-47 in '08.
Outlook: If this seat were open, it would be highly competitive. However, the Democratic leadership doesn't seem interested in challenging a single incumbent Republican this year. Watkins will probably get a free pass, but here's a bit of free strategic advice to the Democrats: run someone, you idiots!
13th: open seat (Loudoun, Prince William)
Redistricting analysis: The old 13th district stretched from Portsmouth up to the Tri-Cities area, and was held by long-time Senator Fred Quayle. The new 13th is carved out of the 27th, 29th, and 33rd, creating a pretty Republican district centered in Loudoun County; Obama narrowly carried the new district 50-49, but Bob McDonnell crushed Creigh Deeds here 65-35.
Outlook: This is a real long-shot. Three Republicans are running, including former Del. Dick Black, two-time SD-29 loser Bob Fitzsimmonds, and Prince William County Supervisor John Stirrup. Democrats need to come up with a candidate here, since if Dick Black, an extremely polarizing far-right ideologue, wins the primary, he would probably struggle to win even a Republican district like this. And I wouldn't count Black out; the district is 75% Loudoun, 25% Prince William, and both of his primary opponents come from the latter. Like for the Republicans in the 29th, Democrats chose a convention here, so they have until August to come up with someone; one Democrat has stepped forward, a guy named Shawn Mitchell, but I can't find thing one about him.
22nd: open seat (Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, Cumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland, Louisa, Lynchburg, Prince Edward)
Redistricting analysis: The previous 22nd district was a bat-shaped district, with the wings being Botetourt County and Montgomery County/Salem/Roanoke County, connected by a strip of Roanoke County going around the eastern border of Roanoke City. The new 22nd district is completely different, going from northern Lynchburg all the way to the Richmond suburbs. The district is drawn to be Republican; it gave 64% of the vote to McDonnell, and also voted for McCain in 2008.
Outlook: This district will be a tough nut to crack for the Democrats. They have recruited a pretty decent candidate in former Lynchburg City Council member Bert Dodson, but it's an uphill battle for him. He may be helped out if the five-way Republican primary (which includes Buckingham County Supervisor Brian Bates, attorney Tom Garrett of Louisa, Lynchburg Republican Party chairman Mark Peake, attorney Bryan Rhode of Goochland, and Amherst County Supervisor Claudia Tucker) ends up divisive.
Wrap-up
In my opinion, control of the Senate comes down to three districts: the 17th, 20th, and 38th. These are the three most Republican seats held by Democrats. Republicans have the advantage here, as they are almost exclusively playing offense. Only two Republican seats are even being contested by the Democrats right now, the open 13th and 22nd. Meanwhile, Republicans have candidates in 15 of the 22 seats held by Democrats; the five African-American Democrats, who all represent majority-black districts, remain uncontested (the 2nd and 5th districts will be uncontested in November, as Republicans chose primaries there and no candidate filed), as do Creigh Deeds and Chuck Colgan. And, as you can see, I only consider three of those 15 districts uncompetitive (Janet Howell, Chap Petersen, and Majority Leader Dick Saslaw). So, Democrats have a lot of work to do in the next four months if they want to preserve their majority. However, things have been going their way lately, with Chuck Colgan running again and a Republican running a third-party challenge against Roscoe Reynolds.
If you actually read all this, thank you for your attention. If you didn't read all of this, thank you for at least... scrolling down to the bottom, I guess?