Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah
Though it's one of, if not the most Republican states in America (Wyoming gives it a run for its money), Utah has one exceptionally popular elected Democrat, U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson, who has won elections in dark-red districts for 10 years, survived an effort to redistrict him out in 2002, and even got reelected during the 2010 fiasco.
He's been regularly mentioned as Democrats' best (and perhaps only) hope at capturing the governorship or a Senate seat, but it's been assumed that he'd have to wait until 36-year incumbent Sen. Orrin Hatch retired.
It appears that may not actually be the case. Utah pollster Dan Jones and Associates' latest public survey says that Matheson would not only be formidable in an open-seat race, but that he could beat Orrin Hatch.
Dan Jones and Associates (6/13-16, registered Utah voters, MoE 5%):
Jim Matheson (D): 47
Orrin Hatch (R-inc): 47
Jason Chaffetz (R): 46
Jim Matheson (D): 45
There's a non-trivial chance that Hatch gets a serious teabagging from firebrand Rep. Jason Chaffetz; Matheson doesn't perform any better against Chaffetz, but doesn't do any worse, either.
A Hatch/Chaffetz primary is every bit as close as both general-election matchups:
Jason Chaffetz (R): 41
Orrin Hatch (R-inc): 40
Among likely voters Hatch is up 47-44, though I can't begin to imagine how small the sample is or what screen they're using. FWIW, Dan Jones also does polling for Senator Hatch, but it doesn't appear this poll was conducted on his behalf.
Obviously these numbers are near miraculous for a Democrat in Utah. No Utah Democrat has served in the Senate since Sen. Frank Moss was defeated in 1976 (by none other than Orrin Hatch), and no Democrat has served as Governor since Jim Matheson's dad, Scott Matheson, from 1977 to 1985.
Perhaps complicating Matheson's decision is the question of what his district will look like after redistricting. Utah gains a fourth Congressional seat this year. Two plans had been bandied about for redistricting, both of them bad for Matheson.
One, pushed by Republicans, was a "pie" plan cutting the state - and the Democratic bastion of Salt Lake City - into roughly equal quarters. The other, pushed by Democrats and good-government types, was a "donut hole" plan preserving Salt Lake County in its own district, and creating three uber-red rural districts around it. (This would make a district Democrats could win much more easily than the current UT-02, but would also open the conservative Matheson up to a potentially serious primary challenge).
Utah Senate President Michael Waddoups, however, has come up with a truly devious "compromise", managing to create a donut-hole district that screws Democrats anyway.
Democrats have repeatedly called for creating a new U.S. House district that is totally within Democratic Salt Lake County, known as a "doughnut hole" plan. GOP Senate President Michael Waddoups offered such a plan Wednesday — but he made his doughnut hole Republican-flavored.
His plan would center its one all-Salt Lake County district in the valley’s southern end around growing, Republican areas such as Herriman and South Jordan, avoiding most Democratic strongholds.
Democratic areas such as Salt Lake City and West Valley City would be put into a different district along with most of western, rural Utah — stretching from Tooele to St. George to Moab. Those rural areas are largely Republican, and could neutralize Democratic votes in Salt Lake County.
It's not clear how this map (if it is in fact signed into law) will affect Matheson's plans, but he says he's running for something - governor, Senate, or House - in 2012.
If he wants to be a U.S. Senator, though, he may never have a better opportunity than he does right now, when he's running even with the longest-serving Senator Utah has ever had.