It's hard to blame Mitt Romney for frowning (Larry Downing/Reuters)
The good news for Mitt Romney is that he is
tied for the lead in Iowa with Michele Bachmann.
The bad news is that he seems to have already locked up just about all the support he's going to get. In the Des Moines Register's new poll of Iowa's GOP caucus goers, just 10% say Romney is their second choice, compared with 18% for Bachmann and 12% for both Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul.
Romney also is more well known than his rivals; 90% know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 77% for Bachmann and 71% for Pawlenty. So not only do his rivals already have more second-choice support than does he, but they also have more room to grow.
Equally troubling for Romney: 44% of likely caucus goers say having supported an individual mandate is a "deal-killer" for them and another 25% say they'd have to consider it.
The second-choice numbers in this poll reflect a pattern. Last week, PPP released a poll showing most Palin supporters would vote for Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann if she doesn't run. Romney picked up just 12% of those voters.
In order to win the nomination, candidates must be able to win over supporters from former rivals who have either dropped out or become irrelevant. So far, Mitt Romney hasn't shown an ability to that. It appears there may be a ceiling to his support—the Mitt Romney ceiling. And if there is, he's in a real trouble.