NASCAR won't save Romney in SC (Reuters)
This would be great news for Mitt Romney (really):
South Carolina’s much-watched first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary could become a far less important first-in-the-South caucus.
Without the help of the state, the party may not legally be able to hold a primary in early 2012, Chad Connelly, the recently elected chairman of the S.C. GOP, said Friday.
Gov. Nikki Haley is expected to veto part of a state budget proposal, now on her desk, that could partially pay for that primary. Connelly is concerned that veto would mean the State Election Commission could not help run the GOP primary, forcing the party to opt for a caucus.
Who knows what's going on behind the scenes, but if I were a GOP insider who wanted Mitt Romney to win, I'd be doing everything I could to shape the primary calendar to his advantage, and that includes minimizing the importance of places like South Carolina. I'd want New Hampshire, and probably Florida, to be what people focused on. Iowa and South Carolina, not so much.
Update: To be clear, I don't think this makes it more likely that Romney wins South Carolina. I think there's no way he wins it whether it's a primary or a caucus. But I think turning it in to a caucus, particularly if it comes later in the cycle, will help Romney because it will downplay the historical importance of the state. South Carolina's primary has historically been a must-win contest for Republican presidential candidates. If there isn't a primary, I think that's good for Romney. But even if that happens, I still wouldn't bet on him winning the nomination.