Social Security, and by extension Medicare, is such a critical component of the fabric of life for America's seniors that people of all ages oppose making changes to the program. New polling in key swing states reflects the jeopardy for incumbents if cuts to the program are made on their watch.
The vast majority of voters—including independents and Republicans—said they'd prefer raising taxes on the wealthy to shore up Social Security, a position that has few adherents in Congress.
The new polls, from Social Security Works, The Alliance for Retired Americans and the National Committee To Preserve Social Security and Medicare, show that 74 percent of likely 2012 voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Virginia and Colorado say they would oppose cutting Social Security benefits in order to reduce the federal budget deficit. That opposition is fairly consistent across the five states, ranging from 71 percent opposed in Colorado to 78 percent opposed in Missouri.
In the new polls, the results that could be of greatest political import show that 72 percent of independents in the combined surveys and 77 percent of those who say they are undecided in 2012's U.S. Senate race (or the race for U.S. Congress in Colorado, where there are no Senate seats up for election next cycle) also oppose cuts to Social Security benefits.
Although respondents' views on Social Security seem to match better with those of Democratic lawmakers, the polls do contain some bad news for Democrats: Republicans hold an edge in questions about who would better handle Social Security. Combined respondents from the five states surveyed favored congressional Republicans over congressional Democrats on the issue by a 29 percent to 27 percent margin, and congressional Republicans over President Barack Obama by a 32 percent to 28 percent margin.
Here's Florida, for example.
This isn't the first poll, by any means, showing that majorities in all political parties would rather see taxes raised than benefits cut. While this poll focuses on Social Security exclusively, similar polling has reflected the same opposition to Medicare cuts. An interesting aspect of this poll that should put the fear of the voter into some Democrats:
Republicans hold an edge in questions about who would better handle Social Security. Combined respondents from the five states surveyed favored congressional Republicans over congressional Democrats on the issue by a 29 percent to 27 percent margin, and congressional Republicans over President Barack Obama by a 32 percent to 28 percent margin.
That edge appears to come from independents, who generally favored Republicans over Democrats in Congress, and Republicans, who will vote for Republicans no matter what, even when they all line up behind Social Security and Medicare privatization. But the so-called "Disaffecteds," as identified by the Pew Research Center in its Political Typology Report, independents who typically lean Republican, are gettable for Dems: "Only 15 percent of Disaffecteds said they would favor cutting entitlements rather than cutting defense spending or other domestic programs, the lowest of any group analyzed by Pew Research—including groups comprised mainly of Democrats."
There's political gold for Dems in 2012 by holding strong on Social Security and Medicare and in the GOP's great gift to them of insisting on cuts to these programs. With an economy that isn't likely to recover much by November 2012, holding the line on these programs might be the best that Dems could do. It's also, of course, pretty damned important for the nation's elderly and disabled, no small factor.