Bachmann says she's not a joke and
at least Republicans seem to agree
Public Policy Polling (6/23-26, New Mexico Republican primary voters):
Michele Bachmann: 21
Mitt Romney: 18
Gary Johnson: 13
Sarah Palin: 11
Herman Cain: 10
Tim Pawlenty: 7
Newt Gingrich: 6
Ron Paul: 5
Someone else/not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.9%)
There's not much to say about those numbers other than wow. Michele Bachmann isn't just leading Sarah Palin, isn't just leading Mitt Romney, she's also leading former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. She's dealing a serious ass-kicking to the GOP field.
PPP also asked two horserace questions in which Johnson was excluded; one had Palin running, the other didn't. Bachmann led both, but with Palin in the race, she was tied with Romney for the lead at 22%. But with Palin out she jumped up to 27% while Romney gained just one point, hitting 23%.
It's a weird comparison to make because of the Johnson factor (no, that wasn't a reference to Anthony Weiner or that hack from Morning Joe), but check out what the field looks like with and without Palin, keeping in mind that she takes 14% with Johnson excluded.
The thing you see is that virtually all of her supporters go to candidates not named Mitt Romney, or become undecided. To me, that reinforces the notion that there's a ceiling to Mitt Romney's support. He's obviously not quite at the ceiling just yet, but to win the nomination, he's going to need to figure out how to win over most of the people in the third and fourth categories of the above chart. He'll probably do okay with Huntsman and maybe Gingrich and Pawlenty supporters, but he's going to get creamed with Paul and Cain supporters.
Bottom-line: Romney hasn't shown that he is going to be able to expand his coalition, and the polls I've seen lately reflects that notion.