One of the reasons political strategists follow campaign donation number so closely is that the amount of money a candidate can raise isn't just a reflection of the level of their core support. It's also an indication of how convincing the campaign has been with wooing voters who are independent or on the fence. At some point in the campaign, donation numbers become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more money a candidate raises, the more he and she seems credible and the easier it is to raise more.
Given all of that, the fact that Tim Pawlenty raised a modest $4.2 million in the first quarter isn't good news. Mitt Romney is expected to have raised between $15 and $20 million in the first quarter, not counting a substantial amount of "independent" PAC spending in support of his campaign.
Pawlenty's campaign is suffering not just from a disorganized organization, but some serious stumbles. Pawlenty's debate performance reportedly disheartened a number of key supporters, and there is a general sense among key Republican strategists that Pawlenty may not have the killer instinct required to win out in such a crowded field.
Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant noted in an email sent to reporters that the former Minnesota governor had raised more money than either Mike Huckabee or John McCain had at a similar point in the campaign last time.
"Gov. Pawlenty will report that his campaign has raised about $4.2 million, and begins the third quarter with more available cash-on-hand than the Republicans who won the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary had in July 2007."
The key difference in that comparison is that Huckabee had a dedicated base of supporters and John McCain had support from many long-time national Republican fundraisers. Tim Pawlenty has neither of those to count on.
Read more on the Pawlenty campaign at PawlentyPost.com