Wisconsin: Dems on cusp of big wins in Senate recall effort.
As we now move past the halfway point in 2011, we get a surprisingly data-heavy week for the early summer months, especially in an off year. Multiple states get looked at this week, including some surprising presidential numbers in Texas and Alaska, two states that are classically considered to be "red states."
We also got our latest look at the recall effort in the Wisconsin state Senate, as Daily Kos asked our polling partners at PPP to take a look at where races stood in three recalls of Republican officeholders. The news, on balance, is pretty darned good.
And, as always, there is much, much more:
- Democrats have to be pleasantly surprised about where they stand in a trio of high-profile open-seat Senate races, and one equally important open-seat Gubernatorial race. Just for funsies, one decidedly low-profile House race gets polled, as well.
- Is Michele Bachmann really on the move? A couple of pollsters confirm it, at least to some extent.
- We get updates in the money chase for two 2011 races, and both provide good news for the Democrats.
All this (and more!) as we stock up on the burgers and the fireworks in this holiday weekend edition of the digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WISCONSIN STATE SENATE
THE POLLS: Hey, why bury the lede? Daily Kos worked with our polling partners at PPP to test the recalls due up this summer of key Republican members of the Wisconsin state Senate. The verdict? The Democrats looked to have a legitimate shot of flipping the chamber via the recall process. One of the embattled Republicans (Dan Kapanke) looks to be toast: he trailed Democrat Jennifer Shilling by fourteen points (56-42). A second Republican, the scandal-tarred Randy Hopper, was also losing to his Democratic foe. His margin was a bit narrower—he was down by three against Democrat Jessica King (50-47). The decisive race may come in the state's 10th District, where Republican Sheila Harsdorf clung narrowly to a lead over Democrat Shelly Moore (50-45).
Daily Kos and PPP will be back in the field here later in the summer. Bear in mind, there are six other races on tap this summer, with three additional Republicans facing recalls, along with a trio of Democrats facing GOP-inspired recalls. The Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reclaim the state Senate.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: With Michele Bachmann's entry into the presidential sweepstakes, and Rick Perry's extensive flirtation with the race, has enough happened to shake up the GOP primary field? A handful of polls answer that with a definitive...um..."maybe."
A new poll out from Fox News placed Perry in second, and Bachmann up several points into third place, in their latest snapshot of the Republican sweepstakes. More importantly, the poll had Mitt Romney returning to the teens. He led the poll with 18%, with Perry at 13% and Bachmann at 11%. Probable non-candidate Rudy Giuliani ran fourth at 10% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the Marist-McClatchy poll showed Romney leading in the teens, as well. The poll, which was conducted last week, had Romney at 19%, leading Giuliani and Perry by six points. In this poll, the Bachmann surge was largely absent, as Marist had her in fifth place at 8% of the vote.
Two common bonds in these polls: Newtie is done. Gingrich logged 3% in the Fox News poll, and just 2% in the Marist poll. Shovel some dirt on the Gingrich campaign.
Marist also gave us a look at how the entire field shakes out against the president in a general election match-up. As is the case elsewhere, Romney comes the closest. As is the case elsewhere, the president is beating the field despite sour re-elect numbers. Despite re-elect stats where more voters are certain to vote against the president (43%) than for him (36%), look at how he compares to the GOP field (April numbers in parentheses where applicable):
Barack Obama (D): 46 (46)
Mitt Romney (R): 42 (45)
Barack Obama (D): 48 (--)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 48 (--)
Rick Perry (R): 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 49 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R): 37 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 47 (--)
Tim Pawlenty (R): 33 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 56 (56)
Sarah Palin (R): 30 (34)
One other poll of note, though it just measured presidential approval. CBS has the president's job approval at 47/44, a point or two behind their previous poll, but in line with other recent findings.
IN THE STATES: Could Barack Obama really beat Rick Perry in Texas, and Sarah Palin in Alaska? A pair of new polls this week concludes exactly that.
Let's start with Texas, where PPP found President Obama staked to a narrow two-point edge over Gov. Rick Perry (47-45). Obama also held a sliver of a lead over Sarah Palin (46-44). The rest of the GOP field either ran even with the president or was staked to a single-digit lead. As has been his customary position, Mitt Romney ran the best, leading the president by an eight-point margin (50-42).
Meanwhile, in Alaska, local outfit Hays Research checked out an Obama-Palin showdown in Palin's home state. As PPP has found...well...almost everywhere else, Hays found the president out in front of the former half-term state executive. Obama's lead over Palin was a modest six-point edge (42-36), with seven percent going to "other" candidates.
If there is any solace for Palin, it might come from the fact that PPP finally (!) came up with a state where Palin would snag some electoral votes against the president. Alas, it would be just three electoral votes, in the form of Montana. In Big Sky country, Obama trailed the entire GOP field by margins ranging from 4-8 points, including the aforementioned Palin, who held a 48-44 advantage over the president. Montana natives seem to have a special love for Palin. Well, "love" might not be the right word, but at a 41/51 favorability split, at least she is not as reviled here as she is most other places.
Speaking of Obama versus home-state governors: if Chris Christie decides to fill the void in the GOP presidential sweepstakes, he's not going to be able to count on his home state of New Jersey. A poll out this week from Bloomberg has the president holding onto an enormous lead (56-33) over the incumbent governor (whose job approval, counter to the media adulation of Christie, was a fairly sucky 44/51).
Curiously, one governor who actually ran fairly well against the president is also a governor who almost certainly will not get the chance to compete in a general election.
In New Mexico, former Gov. Gary Johnson actually pulled Obama within striking range, trailing the president by just three points (46-43). The rest of the GOP field, however, languished further back, with President Obama hanging onto the state's five electoral votes by margins ranging from 7-20 points.
In two other states, Quinnipiac tested the president against the always formidable foe known as "Generic Republican." In the state of New York, the president enjoyed a wide lead (53-30) over the generic GOPer. The margin was much narrower in competitive Virginia, but the president still enjoyed a lead (43-41), which bodes well for the president in a critical 2012 state. The president usually fares better when paired with real, breathing GOPers, as opposed to the hypothetical variety.
On the primary election front, the main story of the week is the looming ascendancy of Michele Bachmann into legitimate candidate status. The week began with the banner headline to this effect out of Iowa, where the gold standard poll from the Des Moines Register had Bachmann just a single point behind frontrunner Mitt Romney (23-22). Meanwhile, Bachmann actually edged Romney in PPP's look at the primary in New Mexico, while she also had leads in PPP's primary polling in Oregon and Montana (assuming Palin does not run). Last week, PPP had Bachmann pulling into the high teens in Florida, within striking distance of Mitt Romney. In one non-PPP primary poll, Suffolk University found Bachmann moving into double-digits in New Hampshire, though Mitt Romney still had a huge lead in a state in which everyone expects him to romp.
RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: A pair of open seats got the PPP treatment this week. In the hugely under-polled state of Texas, the Democrats trailed the GOP hopefuls, though the margins were perhaps surprisingly close (all within single digits). The two highest performing Democrats were a frequent statewide candidate (former state comptroller John Sharp) and a quite improbable candidate (actor Tommy Lee Jones). Republican state LG David Dewhurst performed the best for the GOP, leading the Dem field by margins ranging from 4-8 points.
Meanwhile, PPP headed back to New Mexico, and found the Democrats leading here by similarly modest margins. The margins range from four points (in a match-up between Democratic state auditor Hector Balderas and Republican LG John Sanchez) to fourteen points (in a Balderas showdown with teabagger Greg Sowards). PPP also tested the New Mexico primaries, and found clear leaders in the form of Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich (who leads Balderas 47-24) and former GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (who leads Sanchez 52-24, with Sowards at 8%). Thus, if you want to test the frontrunners in a general election trial heat, PPP found Heinrich up by five points (47-42) over Wilson.
Arguably the biggest open seat race also saw new data this week. Out of Virginia, a new Quinnipiac poll had Democrat Tim Kaine with an insignificant lead of a single point (43-42) over former GOP Sen. George Allen. Pretty much every poll conducted to date has confirmed the coin flip in this marquee Dem-held open seat.
One incumbent race was also polled this week, and it showed a weakening Democratic incumbent. That said, Bill Nelson still appears reasonably secure in Florida. The new poll by PPP has Nelson mimicking President Obama: meh approval numbers meshed with sizeable leads over the GOP field. Nelson, in this case, held leads in the narrow range of 11-12 points, regardless of his Republican challenger.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Take these small smattering of tea leaves for what they are worth: in Wisconsin, former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson has hired some fundraisers. One would assume that is a prologue to a Senate bid in this slow-developing open seat contest. Another potential Badger State Senate hopeful (Democratic Congressman Ron Kind) is waiting at least until August to decide on a bid.
- The GOP might be gaining a candidate in Wisconsin, but it's back to the drawing board in New Jersey. Inexplicably, biotech executive John Crowley (who stepped down from his business gig just a couple of months ago, presaging a bid) elected not to run against Democrat Robert Menendez in the Garden State. Republicans are still waiting on state legislator Joe Kyrillos, who edged toward a bid last month.
- If Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is still flirting with a Senate bid in Hawaii, this ought to give her pause: the cornerstone PAC for Democratic women (EMILY's List) endorsed Mazie Hirono in the Senate race, not even bothering to wait and see if Hanabusa would pull the trigger on a bid. With a more conservative alternative in the wings (former Rep. Ed Case), one has to be a bit concerned about a crowded primary here.
THE RACE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
THE POLLS: How's this for a welcome into the race? Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee made his entry into the gubernatorial race in Washington official on Monday, and on the same day a new SurveyUSA poll gave the veteran politician his first lead over the likely Republican standard bearer (state AG Rob McKenna). While Inslee's advantage over McKenna was slight (47-44), it was a marked improvement over previous polls for the Democrat. While Inslee is not guaranteed a free ride on the Democratic side, most of the legitimate players on the "D" bench seem to be deferring to him.
Meanwhile, this isn't a horserace poll, but it's too good not to point out: in Florida, new GOP Gov. Rick Scott is so hated that he might actually be helping President Obama. According to PPP, 40% of the state's voters say that Scott's performance as Chief Executive of the Sunshine State has been so poor that they are now less likely to support to party's nominee for president.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- There are four gubernatorial races on the docket this fall, with both parties defending a pair of state houses. Sadly, neither GOP-held state house appears to be in real danger. Republicans are favored to hold Mississippi, where at least the Dems have a couple of active candidates. In Louisiana, meanwhile, the Dems are looking at pretty close to squat in their quest to battle GOP Governor Bobby Jindal. Only small time candidate (and former Jindal supporter) Tara Hollis is in the mix. Dems still have two months to round up a legitimate opponent: the filing deadline in the Pelican State isn't until early September.
- In another of those 2011 contests, Democratic acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is leading the money race in West Virginia, unless you count the change falling out of Republican Bill Maloney's pockets. Tomblin more than doubled up Maloney in fundraising, but Maloney dropped another $150K to his own campaign (pushing him well north of a half-mil for the cycle). This gave Maloney the edge in cash-on-hand.
- We might have our first intriguing challenge for 2014 mounting already against one of those less-beloved new GOP governors. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Tom Knox, a wealthy businessman who was weighing an Indie bid for Philadelphia Mayor (waiting for the outcome of a potentially bloody Democratic primary), is instead talking about a bid for governor instead. Tom Corbett, the GOPer who narrowly edged Democrat Dan Onorato last year, could have a tough time with Knox, who can self-fund to the tune of six or seven figures.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE POLLS: Well...um...make that the poll. And it comes out of the at-large district in Montana, an open-seat battle that might well be on everyone's radar in 2012. In 2011, however, it is on virtually nobody's radar, including the voters of the state. No candidate in the field is recognized by even a quarter of the state's electorate. As a result, the new numbers for PPP represented, more than anything, a snapshot of the generic lean of the state. Republican Steve Daines was the frontrunner, as he held leads over both prominent Dems in the race. Dem state legislator Kim Gillan trailed by eight points (35-27), while her fellow legislative Dem Franke Willmer was down by ten (35-25). In a sign of how little-known the field is, Republican John Abarr (who is best known for his ties to the KKK) also leads both potential Democratic candidates.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- If the news out of Illinois and California were the kind of gifts that lent themselves to the glorious name of Redistmas, the news this week was more like Redistastrous. It started with the news that the split state lege in Oregon had unveiled a "compromise" map where it is pretty hard to figure out where the GOP had to compromise. Both Democrats Kurt Schrader and David Wu got redder districts to deal with, while the tradeoff was apparently an incrementally more amenable district for Democrat Peter DeFazio. But the real redistaster came on Friday, when the new maps in North Carolina were unveiled. This map was a buffet of suck, which will probably net the GOP anywhere between two-to-four seats. Sadly, one of the most likely casualties is Brad Miller, who has been a real champ in his tenure in the House. One Democrat is standing his ground, with Larry Kissell announcing via e-mail on Friday that he will run in the dramatically reconfigured 8th District.
- It is a good news/bad news scenario out of the special election in suburban SoCal. In CA-36, Democrat Janice Hahn more than doubled up free-spending GOPer Craig Huey on the money front. Hahn has raised $677K, more than doubling Huey's haul of $323K. She also had a five-to-one CoH edge, but that becomes less relevant in this race, because Huey can cut a check to himself whenever he damned well pleases. The bad news came from early voting/VBM stats, which showed that Dems and GOPers ran essentially even thus far. The Hahn campaign was quick to respond that the bulk of the 5500 nonpartisan ballots returned thus far came from voters who are Democratic primary voters. Hahn's spokesman claimed that the EV/VBM numbers give Hahn a nine-point edge. That edge is critical, because in the primary election, Huey did better on Election Day than he did in the early vote.
- Meanwhile, in MI-11, their five-term Congressman, Republican Thad McCotter, is apparently running for president. I'd add comprehensive analysis, but it is hard to come up with much beyond "WTF?" Which, come to think of it, is a pretty good way to end this edition of the weekend digest.