Everyday, ISAF/NATO pump out reports of counter-terror raids that resulted in captured and/or killed insurgents. Everday, more efforts continue to build up conventional and unconventional Afghan security forces. We hear more stories of rampant corruption, much like that which has helped drive the Arab Spring. And everyday, we find out more reasons for why we cannot and should not trust Pakistan.
Nearly a decade after the U.S. was attacked, nearly a decade after Afghanistan was invaded, Osama bin Laden has finally died and departure has become clearly inevitable.
I'm not going to link to polls; they all show that an endless-mission is not in the nation's appetite. President Barack Obama has begun the process of drawing down after surging up. The slow process will drag on while NATO and Afghan security forces try pounding the rest of the militants on their side of the border. The focus is expected to shift from the Taliban heartland and opium fields in the south to the rugged and mountainous east. Here there is less worry about militants based in Quetta, Balochistan, and more worry about militants based in Miramshah, North Waziristan or even the infamous Afghan province of Kunar. Sometime after that, though, this focus too will shift to departing.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan's military-spy agency the ISI now have the ball in their court. Both want aid without strings attached. Both talk about wanting peace. For Afghanistan, a country long used as a chessboard between regional and international powers, it is anyone's guess what will happen. More than likely, the Pakistan-India game will continue to be waged with devestating effect. We'll probably still be worried to death about Pakistani nukes. Iran will likely continue keeping indirect pressure on us as we conduct a slow-withdrawal. Hamid Karzai will likely continue to try ruling like a 20th century Muslim-strongman without worry for any Arab Spring. As for the U.S., with any luck, we will continue to draw down and leave the region in the best condition possible; for Afghanistan, besieged by three decades of horror, the bar is especially-low.
As for al-Qaeda Central; Ayman al-Zawahiri is likely to do more damage to the organization than any drone strike.