(Romney photo credit: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
Public Policy Polling (6/30-7/5, New Hampshire Republican primary voters):
Mitt Romney: 25
Michele Bachmann: 18
Sarah Palin: 11
Ron Paul: 9
Herman Cain: 7
Rick Perry: 7
John Huntsman: 6
Tim Pawlenty: 6
Newt Gingrich: 4
Someone else/not sure: 7
(MoE: ±5.3%)
If Sarah Palin doesn't run, Romney maintains a seven point lead:
Mitt Romney: 28
Michele Bachmann: 21
Ron Paul: 9
Rick Perry: 9
Herman Cain: 7
John Huntsman: 7
Tim Pawlenty: 6
Newt Gingrich: 4
Someone else/not sure: 9
(MoE: ±5.3%)
It's hard to compare these numbers to PPP's previous poll, which was conducted in April. The problem is that the matchups tested by PPP have changed since then, mostly because the field has changed. Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, and Haley Barbour are all out, while Jon Huntsman is now in with Rick Perry waiting on the sidelines. That said, a few general patterns emerge if you compare each candidate's current range of results to their range of results in PPP's previous poll.
In April, Michele Bachmann ranged from 3% to 8%, depending on the matchup. Now her range is 14% to 21% (the 14% number comes from a third matchup tested by PPP in which Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Rudy Giuliani also run), so she's exploded in a big way.
Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, has imploded. In April, he ranged between 11% and 17%. Now he's at 4%.
The only piece of good news in the poll for Mitt Romney is that he leads the field. In April, he ranged from a low of 27% to a high of 40%. Now he's ranging between 25% and 28%. He still leads the poll, so it wouldn't be fair to say he's cratered, but it's not a good sign that he's now polling at the lowest part of his range in April. Clearly, Mittmentum is now taking him in the wrong direction.
Romney's challenge still remains figuring out how to win the support of of Republicans who are currently supporting other candidates, and thus far, he's shown absolutely no ability to grow his base. Unless he figures out how to do that, he can't win the nomination.