• FL-Sen: Mike Haridopolos (R), $900K raised
• IN-Sen: Joe Donnelly (D), $440K raised; Dick Lugar (R), $900K raised; Richard Mourdock (R), $300K raised
• MA-Sen: Scott Brown (R), $2 million raised, $9.6 million cash-on-hand
• ME-Sen: Scott D'Amboise (R), $117K raised
• MT-Gov: Steve Bullock (D), $196K cash-on-hand; Rick Hill (R), $198K cash-on-hand
• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D), $1.5 million raised, $3.5 million cash-on-hand
• PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D), $1.3 million raised, $3.1 million cash-on-hand
• UT-Sen: Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is looking to primary Sen. Orrin Hatch, just endorsed Mitt Romney for president, rather than his former governor, Jon Huntsman. Chaffetz had served as Huntsman's campaign manager and chief-of-staff, but Huntsman declined to endorse him in a possible race against Hatch, so perhaps this is payback. Of course, it also helps that Romney is the current favorite to win the GOP nomination, while Huntsman's candidacy is a media-generated fabrication.
• NM-Gov: Newly-elected GOP Gov. Susana Martinez has remarkably good 52-37 favorables, and rare for a PPP poll, she'd thump her 2010 opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, by a 53-44 spread in a hypothetical rematch. Tom: "A female Hispanic Governor who's maintaining her popularity as she governs a blue state? Martinez would be at the top of my VP list for next year if I was a Republican strategist."
• MO-Gov: Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's dodgy habit of having the state pay his expenses for his personal travel just got a whitewash from the state auditor's office — a job held by a fellow Republican, natch. Kinder's already paid back over $54,000 to the state, but no one can really be sure how much Kinder actually owes, since the new auditor's report refused to examine Kinder's calendar. I suspect this bogus review will not put the issue to bed.
• MT-Gov, MT-AL, MT-Sen: PPP has a smorgasbord of Montana primary numbers, though it's too early for any of them to be hugely interesting. A small plurality of Republicans like ex-Rep. Rick Hill (35%) for the gubernatorial nod and businessman Steve Daines (22%) for the House seat. Democrats prefer AG Steve Bullock over LG John Bohlinger in the gov race by a 40-27 margin. Perhaps more interestingly, Dems would also dig a Brian Schweitzer primary challenge to Sen. Max Baucus. The governor would beat the incumbent 51-34. Only problem: The race isn't until 2014.
• FL-11: I can't understand why this district would attract any Republicans at all, but Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe (whom we've mentioned before as a possible candidate) says he's "leaning toward a run" against Dem Rep. Kathy Castor. (Previously, state Sen. Michael Bennett announced plans to contest this seat but bailed soon after.)
Roll Call helpfully notes that Sharpe twice came close in a district also numbered "11" in the 1990s… but appearances can be deceiving. Bill Clinton won the district by just two points in 1992, and for a more direct comparison, Al Gore won it by nine in 2000… but by 22 after redistricting. (Obama blew it up here in 2008, winning by 33 points.) This seat will definitely not get any redder after this redistricting, since other Republican turf in the region needs to get shored up. So I don't see a lot of GOP upside here.
• NC-13: Lots of Republican names are already getting tossed about as potential candidates in the redrawn 13th CD (currently home to Dem Rep. Brad Miller). They include: former Congressional candidates Nathan Tabor and B.J. Lawson, Wake County Commissioner Paul Coble, and former U.S. Attorney George Holding. And at least one, Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. (son of state Senate President Phil Berger), says he's actually considering the race.
• NV-02: The ballot for the special election is complete. In addition to Dem Kate Marshall and GOPer Mark Amodei, two independents qualified. One is Tim Fasano, running for the Independent American Party, and Helmuth Lehmann, just plain independent.
• NY-09: With city councilman Eric Ulrich saying no, Chris Bragg at City Hall News says the GOP field is down to four names: 2010 candidate and businessman Bob Turner (who could potentially self-fund a bit), attorney Juan Reyes (who supposedly has DC connections to real money), Andy Sullivan, described as a "construction worker and Ground Zero mosque opponent," and Wall Street exec (and former Marine) Tim Cochrane.
• NY-13: According to Tom Wrobleski of the Staten Island Advance, a recent telephone poll conducted by a firm called "Statewide Survey Research" asked for approval ratings for Rep. Mike Grimm (R), ex-Rep. (and possible rematch candidate) Mike McMahon (D), and, interestingly, Assemblyman Mike Cusick, also a Democrat (and also a Mike). Cusick, whose name also surfaced in 2008 when this seat became open, says he's "not looking at 2012 right now," which translates to "not ruling it out."
• NY-14, NY-16: This is not our usual fare at Daily Kos Elections, but this is a very interesting read nonetheless. New York Magazine decided to do an in-depth comparison of two geographically close but socio-economically very different congressional districts: Rep. Carolyn Maloney's 14th (anchored in Manhattan's Upper East Side, which happens to be my home), and Jose Serrano's 16th (based in the South Bronx). A whole host of fascinating infographics and discussions are at the link. One sample: a comparison of weekly budgets for two very different families of four, one in each district. One spent $2,222.98, the other $539.50. One subway ride apart, two very different worlds.
• DGA (via email): The Democratic Governors Association raised approximately $11 million in the first six months of 2011 (more than double compared to the same period in 2007). The DGA has $8.6 million cash-on-hand.
• DCCC: Now the robocalls are getting a bit more interesting. Instead of going after a whole mess of Republicans on the same issue (typically Medicare or Social Security), the D-Trip is specifically targeting six ethically troubled GOPers (mostly freshman), each with their own custom-tailored script about their individual lapses. The dirty half-dozen are Scott Tipton (CO-03), Vern Buchanan (FL-13), David Rivera (FL-25), Frank Guinta (NH-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08). I like the idea of setting up a narrative about corruption among the Republican freshman class. Click the link to find out the exact issues the DCCC is hammering each of these guys one.
• Voter suppression: Jesus, really? Supposedly independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee just went and signed a voter ID bill that was passed by a freaking Democratic-run state legislature. We've groused about this one before, but seriously, WTF? As an indicator of how embarrassed Chafee was to endorse this bill, his office refused to acknowledge he had signed the legislation until Tuesday afternoon… even though he put pen to paper on Saturday. Pathetic.
• NH-St. House: This is a hilarious shit-show, stemming from a race for the often clownish (and often scary) New Hampshire state House, narrated by a local blogger I'd like to introduce you to, William Tucker. I can't possibly do it justice by summarizing it, but I can tell you it involves two candidates who lost a GOP primary lambasting each other on the House Majority Leader's Facebook page — and it ends with one guy posting just "LOL." Go read and enjoy.
• NY-St. Sen.: Andrew Hawkins and Chris Bragg (that guy gets around!), writing in The Capitol, offer a detailed look at the arc of Republican and Democratic fortunes in the state Senate over the past few years. One section of particular interest toward the end of the piece discusses the possibility that if Democrats re-take the Senate next year, the four wankerish members of the so-called "Independent Democratic Conference" could still throw control of the chamber to the Republicans. I'm skeptical, though: The last two guys who tried this, Pedro Espada and Hiram Monserrate, got tossed out of office. But memories can be short and politicians can be dumb… so dumb.
• WI Recall: TPM has a helpful roundup of new fundraising numbers for all six races targeting Republican state senators. The GOPers have outraised Team Blue $2.4 mil to $1.6 mil, but those totals are skewed by the huge efforts of Dan Kapanke and Alberta Darling – the other races are much more balanced (and I'm not sure all the money in the world will save Kapanke). That's pretty remarkable, since the Republicans have had a lot more time to fundraise, since they began as soon as the recall efforts were launched, while Dems could only begin once they announced. On top of all this, Democrats have more cash-on-hand, $950K to $890K. Click the link for all the numbers.
Meanwhile, some great news for Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen: state Rep. John Nygren, who failed to file enough signatures to get on the ballot, has given up his legal battle to get his name restored and also won't run as a write-in. That leaves the GOP with a very, very poor second-stringer indeed: David VanderLeest, the subject of this new attack ad from the DLCC, which summarizes his candidacy pretty well. One final tidbit: Nancy Pelosi is hosting a high-dollar fundraiser in DC for America Votes Action Fund, a group which plans to spend money on behalf of Dems in the upcoming recalls. (Also attending are Wisconsin Reps. Ron Kind, Gwen Moore, and Tammy Baldwin, and ex-Rep. David Obey.)
• Maryland: This is a bit like TK-421 trying to give his opinion to Darth Vader, but Maryland Republicans went ahead anyway and proposed their own redistricting map. I mention it purely because of its funnymander value: It actually draws GOP Rep. Andy Harris out of his own district. (Andy Harris, why aren't you at your post? Andy Harris, do you copy?) My guess is that Republicans have nothing to lose, so they can pretend to be so goo-goo they even screwed over one of their own.
• New Jersey: Rutgers Prof. Alan Rosenthal, who served as the tiebreaker for the state's legislative redistricting commission, said he has no wish to perform the same duties for the upcoming congressional remapping process. Rosenthal got a lot of crap from Republicans for ultimately siding with the Democrats, and I should also note that Gov. Chris Christie recently used his line-item veto to cut funding from a fellowship program that Rosenthal runs. Nothing like a little payback. I strongly encourage you to click on and read the entire story at that link — an editorial/interview with Democratic state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, which features paragraph after paragraph of eye-popping quotes. Sample: "This is all about him being a bully and a punk." One guess who Sweeney is talking about.
• North Carolina: I don't think things are going the way the GOP hoped — or at least, if this is what they expected, then they certainly didn't plan very well. Republicans pretended that they got buy-in from two black Democratic congressmen for their new redistricting plan (something that itself could actually be problematic), but that claim is being shredded by the congressmen themselves. Rep. Mel Watt blasts the map as violating the VRA, while Rep. G.K. Butterfield says he offered no advice to the Republicans who met with him.
And don't forget: Daily Kos Elections denizen roguemapper will be giving a presentation at public hearing on redistricting at Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College later today. (His presentation is based on this must-read diary.) If you're in the area, please come out to support him. Unfortunately, we don't have an exact time when he'll be speaking, but the meeting lasts from 3pm until 7pm. (I'll tweet it once we know.) The address:
340 Victoria Road
Asheville, NC 28801