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2Q Fundraising:

FL-Sen: Mike Haridopolos (R), $900K raised

IN-Sen: Joe Donnelly (D), $440K raised; Dick Lugar (R), $900K raised; Richard Mourdock (R), $300K raised

MA-Sen: Scott Brown (R), $2 million raised, $9.6 million cash-on-hand

ME-Sen: Scott D'Amboise (R), $117K raised

MT-Gov: Steve Bullock (D), $196K cash-on-hand; Rick Hill (R), $198K cash-on-hand

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D), $1.5 million raised, $3.5 million cash-on-hand

PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D), $1.3 million raised, $3.1 million cash-on-hand

Senate:

UT-Sen: Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is looking to primary Sen. Orrin Hatch, just endorsed Mitt Romney for president, rather than his former governor, Jon Huntsman. Chaffetz had served as Huntsman's campaign manager and chief-of-staff, but Huntsman declined to endorse him in a possible race against Hatch, so perhaps this is payback. Of course, it also helps that Romney is the current favorite to win the GOP nomination, while Huntsman's candidacy is a media-generated fabrication.

Gubernatorial:

NM-Gov: Newly-elected GOP Gov. Susana Martinez has remarkably good 52-37 favorables, and rare for a PPP poll, she'd thump her 2010 opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, by a 53-44 spread in a hypothetical rematch. Tom: "A female Hispanic Governor who's maintaining her popularity as she governs a blue state? Martinez would be at the top of my VP list for next year if I was a Republican strategist."

MO-Gov: Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's dodgy habit of having the state pay his expenses for his personal travel just got a whitewash from the state auditor's office — a job held by a fellow Republican, natch. Kinder's already paid back over $54,000 to the state, but no one can really be sure how much Kinder actually owes, since the new auditor's report refused to examine Kinder's calendar. I suspect this bogus review will not put the issue to bed.

MT-Gov, MT-AL, MT-Sen: PPP has a smorgasbord of Montana primary numbers, though it's too early for any of them to be hugely interesting. A small plurality of Republicans like ex-Rep. Rick Hill (35%) for the gubernatorial nod and businessman Steve Daines (22%) for the House seat. Democrats prefer AG Steve Bullock over LG John Bohlinger in the gov race by a 40-27 margin. Perhaps more interestingly, Dems would also dig a Brian Schweitzer primary challenge to Sen. Max Baucus. The governor would beat the incumbent 51-34. Only problem: The race isn't until 2014.

House:

FL-11: I can't understand why this district would attract any Republicans at all, but Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe (whom we've mentioned before as a possible candidate) says he's "leaning toward a run" against Dem Rep. Kathy Castor. (Previously, state Sen. Michael Bennett announced plans to contest this seat but bailed soon after.)

Roll Call helpfully notes that Sharpe twice came close in a district also numbered "11" in the 1990s… but appearances can be deceiving. Bill Clinton won the district by just two points in 1992, and for a more direct comparison, Al Gore won it by nine in 2000… but by 22 after redistricting. (Obama blew it up here in 2008, winning by 33 points.) This seat will definitely not get any redder after this redistricting, since other Republican turf in the region needs to get shored up. So I don't see a lot of GOP upside here.

NC-13: Lots of Republican names are already getting tossed about as potential candidates in the redrawn 13th CD (currently home to Dem Rep. Brad Miller). They include: former Congressional candidates Nathan Tabor and B.J. Lawson, Wake County Commissioner Paul Coble, and former U.S. Attorney George Holding. And at least one, Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. (son of state Senate President Phil Berger), says he's actually considering the race.

NV-02: The ballot for the special election is complete. In addition to Dem Kate Marshall and GOPer Mark Amodei, two independents qualified. One is Tim Fasano, running for the Independent American Party, and Helmuth Lehmann, just plain independent.

NY-09: With city councilman Eric Ulrich saying no, Chris Bragg at City Hall News says the GOP field is down to four names: 2010 candidate and businessman Bob Turner (who could potentially self-fund a bit), attorney Juan Reyes (who supposedly has DC connections to real money), Andy Sullivan, described as a "construction worker and Ground Zero mosque opponent," and Wall Street exec (and former Marine) Tim Cochrane.

NY-13: According to Tom Wrobleski of the Staten Island Advance, a recent telephone poll conducted by a firm called "Statewide Survey Research" asked for approval ratings for Rep. Mike Grimm (R), ex-Rep. (and possible rematch candidate) Mike McMahon (D), and, interestingly, Assemblyman Mike Cusick, also a Democrat (and also a Mike). Cusick, whose name also surfaced in 2008 when this seat became open, says he's "not looking at 2012 right now," which translates to "not ruling it out."

NY-14, NY-16: This is not our usual fare at Daily Kos Elections, but this is a very interesting read nonetheless. New York Magazine decided to do an in-depth comparison of two geographically close but socio-economically very different congressional districts: Rep. Carolyn Maloney's 14th (anchored in Manhattan's Upper East Side, which happens to be my home), and Jose Serrano's 16th (based in the South Bronx). A whole host of fascinating infographics and discussions are at the link. One sample: a comparison of weekly budgets for two very different families of four, one in each district. One spent $2,222.98, the other $539.50. One subway ride apart, two very different worlds.

Grab Bag:

DGA (via email): The Democratic Governors Association raised approximately $11 million in the first six months of 2011 (more than double compared to the same period in 2007). The DGA has $8.6 million cash-on-hand.

DCCC: Now the robocalls are getting a bit more interesting. Instead of going after a whole mess of Republicans on the same issue (typically Medicare or Social Security), the D-Trip is specifically targeting six ethically troubled GOPers (mostly freshman), each with their own custom-tailored script about their individual lapses. The dirty half-dozen are Scott Tipton (CO-03), Vern Buchanan (FL-13), David Rivera (FL-25), Frank Guinta (NH-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), and Stephen Fincher (TN-08). I like the idea of setting up a narrative about corruption among the Republican freshman class. Click the link to find out the exact issues the DCCC is hammering each of these guys one.

Voter suppression: Jesus, really? Supposedly independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee just went and signed a voter ID bill that was passed by a freaking Democratic-run state legislature. We've groused about this one before, but seriously, WTF? As an indicator of how embarrassed Chafee was to endorse this bill, his office refused to acknowledge he had signed the legislation until Tuesday afternoon… even though he put pen to paper on Saturday. Pathetic.

Other Races:

NH-St. House: This is a hilarious shit-show, stemming from a race for the often clownish (and often scary) New Hampshire state House, narrated by a local blogger I'd like to introduce you to, William Tucker. I can't possibly do it justice by summarizing it, but I can tell you it involves two candidates who lost a GOP primary lambasting each other on the House Majority Leader's Facebook page — and it ends with one guy posting just "LOL." Go read and enjoy.

NY-St. Sen.: Andrew Hawkins and Chris Bragg (that guy gets around!), writing in The Capitol, offer a detailed look at the arc of Republican and Democratic fortunes in the state Senate over the past few years. One section of particular interest toward the end of the piece discusses the possibility that if Democrats re-take the Senate next year, the four wankerish members of the so-called "Independent Democratic Conference" could still throw control of the chamber to the Republicans. I'm skeptical, though: The last two guys who tried this, Pedro Espada and Hiram Monserrate, got tossed out of office. But memories can be short and politicians can be dumb… so dumb.

WI Recall: TPM has a helpful roundup of new fundraising numbers for all six races targeting Republican state senators. The GOPers have outraised Team Blue $2.4 mil to $1.6 mil, but those totals are skewed by the huge efforts of Dan Kapanke and Alberta Darling – the other races are much more balanced (and I'm not sure all the money in the world will save Kapanke). That's pretty remarkable, since the Republicans have had a lot more time to fundraise, since they began as soon as the recall efforts were launched, while Dems could only begin once they announced. On top of all this, Democrats have more cash-on-hand, $950K to $890K. Click the link for all the numbers.

Meanwhile, some great news for Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen: state Rep. John Nygren, who failed to file enough signatures to get on the ballot, has given up his legal battle to get his name restored and also won't run as a write-in. That leaves the GOP with a very, very poor second-stringer indeed: David VanderLeest, the subject of this new attack ad from the DLCC, which summarizes his candidacy pretty well. One final tidbit: Nancy Pelosi is hosting a high-dollar fundraiser in DC for America Votes Action Fund, a group which plans to spend money on behalf of Dems in the upcoming recalls. (Also attending are Wisconsin Reps. Ron Kind, Gwen Moore, and Tammy Baldwin, and ex-Rep. David Obey.)

Redistricting Roundup:

Maryland: This is a bit like TK-421 trying to give his opinion to Darth Vader, but Maryland Republicans went ahead anyway and proposed their own redistricting map. I mention it purely because of its funnymander value: It actually draws GOP Rep. Andy Harris out of his own district. (Andy Harris, why aren't you at your post? Andy Harris, do you copy?) My guess is that Republicans have nothing to lose, so they can pretend to be so goo-goo they even screwed over one of their own.

New Jersey: Rutgers Prof. Alan Rosenthal, who served as the tiebreaker for the state's legislative redistricting commission, said he has no wish to perform the same duties for the upcoming congressional remapping process. Rosenthal got a lot of crap from Republicans for ultimately siding with the Democrats, and I should also note that Gov. Chris Christie recently used his line-item veto to cut funding from a fellowship program that Rosenthal runs. Nothing like a little payback. I strongly encourage you to click on and read the entire story at that link — an editorial/interview with Democratic state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, which features paragraph after paragraph of eye-popping quotes. Sample: "This is all about him being a bully and a punk." One guess who Sweeney is talking about.

North Carolina: I don't think things are going the way the GOP hoped — or at least, if this is what they expected, then they certainly didn't plan very well. Republicans pretended that they got buy-in from two black Democratic congressmen for their new redistricting plan (something that itself could actually be problematic), but that claim is being shredded by the congressmen themselves. Rep. Mel Watt blasts the map as violating the VRA, while Rep. G.K. Butterfield says he offered no advice to the Republicans who met with him.

And don't forget: Daily Kos Elections denizen roguemapper will be giving a presentation at public hearing on redistricting at Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College later today. (His presentation is based on this must-read diary.) If you're in the area, please come out to support him. Unfortunately, we don't have an exact time when he'll be speaking, but the meeting lasts from 3pm until 7pm. (I'll tweet it once we know.) The address:

Asheville Campus
Ferguson Building
Ferguson Auditorium
340 Victoria Road
Asheville, NC 28801

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Take New Hampshire Forward! and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Fuck Lincoln Chafee (12+ / 0-)

    and Fuck the RIDP.

    Seriously, I'm livid that this sort of thing could pass in a state with democratic majorities and a supposedly liberal independent Governor.

  •  Georgia Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davybaby

    The AJC has an interesting column on redistricting.  It's more of a "what to [possibly] look for" story than a report on the actual districts.

  •  Recall thoughts: (10+ / 0-)

    It's hilarious that Dan Kapanke has raised so much money. I'm not sure why Republican donors are willing to spend so much money on a lost cause. On the other hand, with his expenditures, I sorta wonder if he's using direct mail churn-and-burn.

    I'm also sorta interested in seeing how much money Jim Holperin and Kim Simac raised, as well as something more comprehensive for outside groups, who I believe will be the biggest spenders in these recalls. I realize that's harder to do, though, as a lot of this is just people like the CfG that aren't necessarily recall-centric dropping money.

    •  Kapanke (8+ / 0-)

      Probably has a better fundraising list than anyone (save Darling, who is quite amazing) thanks to his run against Ron Kind last year.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:59:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That was a head scratcher (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, CarolinNJ

      Kapanke has long been the most vulnerable of any of the Senators.  You did not have to wait until the recent PPP poll to see that, since KloJo's performance in April demonstrated the tough slog Kapanke would face.

      On the whole, I though the finance reports were pretty good news.  The fact that in 2, 14, 18, and 32, the Dems significantly out raised their opponents.  I was particularly impressed by Fred Clark.  I mean that race is basically where the majority can fall, so it is nice to see that Clark has plenty of resources going forward, although there is still a month for GOP money to come into the state.

      As for Darling, that was expected.  She has been running the best campaign out of any of the GOPers and took the recall effort seriously.  While I doubt all that money can drive her approvals up, it can do damage to Pasch who is not known as well.   Although, for all the money being spent, I have not seen any TV ads yet and I live in Milwaukee county.  

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

      by glame on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:10:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Snowe emulating McCain? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, 4Freedom, MichaelNY, askew

    Seems she's teaming up with constitutional scholar DeMint to push for a balanced budget amendment. Could this, plus nutty Maine governor's actions, cause a reaction against one of the Maine girls in the 2012 election? I suppose improbable, but...

  •  I (8+ / 0-)

    can't say how annoying it is when our Republican friends whine about PPP rematch numbers. "They never give us positive results. They cherry pick them." However I bet the next time Tom finds a negative result with rematch numbers they will keep on saying how it is selective and how they never listen to PPP. It really is annoying how when PPP shows results they like they never complain, but when it shows negative results for them all of a sudden they find a million things wrong with it.

    My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

    by drhoosierdem on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:31:16 AM PDT

  •  Off topic comment. (6+ / 0-)

    Can we quit with the ads that play videos as soon as you hit the front page?

    You can't simultaneously fire teachers and cruise missiles!-Jon Stewart

    by djtyg on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:36:00 AM PDT

  •  Yeah, I doubt the GOP is in a hurry to pick (6+ / 0-)

    another popular in her her own state, inexperienced, half term Governor for VP again.

    Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

    by tigercourse on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:37:49 AM PDT

    •  Yes, Susana Martinez (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, CarolinNJ
      NM-Gov: Newly-elected GOP Gov. Susana Martinez has remarkably good 52-37 favorables, and rare for a PPP poll, she'd thump her 2010 opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, by a 53-44 spread in a hypothetical rematch. Tom: "A female Hispanic Governor who's maintaining her popularity as she governs a blue state? Martinez would be at the top of my VP list for next year if I was a Republican strategist."

      is governor because she's cute and perky and had LOTS AND LOTS of Texas oil money behind her, and because Denish was sad and dispirited and ran an incredibly lack-luster campaign.   Martinez is a small-time business woman without much experience of running anything.  Personally she is vindictive, croneyistic, and mean, just like you-know-who.  Her ethics are, shall we say, flexible.  The only reason they haven't dug up any MAJOR dirt on her is that she's never DONE anything major.  

      I think her popularity just took an uncharacteristic jump right now because of her populistic "ban all fireworks" stand in response to the 4th of July and the horrendous wild fire that is ravaging the Jemez mountains.  Typically the R's are against constraining private business in ANY way, no matter how urgent the public safety aspects, so this was an a-typical position for her, and a very shrewd and popular one.  

      "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

      by lgmcp on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:53:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Umm, (0+ / 0-)

        are you saying that Republican's wouldn't take necessarily steps to protect the public from starting wild fires, etc? I find that pretty offensive, if that's what you're implying.

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:23:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt that's true, except with Rick Scott. (0+ / 0-)

          Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

          by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:10:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I am absolutely saying that NM Republicans (0+ / 0-)

          historically, have been deeply opposed to governmental bans or even restrictions on fireworks sales.   What information do you have to the contrary?  

          "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

          by lgmcp on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:46:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lgmcp

            You made it sound like every R nationwide was like that. Not just NM.

            DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

            by aggou on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:14:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can't speak specifically to other states (0+ / 0-)

              but I would very surprised to find any instances (prior to Martinez during the Las Conchas fire) of a Republican governor speaking out in favor of governmental restrictions on fireworks due to potential wildfire hazards. It's a frequent issue, at least here in the Mountain West -- arises at LEAST one year in five, here where national forests have been tinder-dry for decades, and to the best of my belief they ALWAYS stand firm in favor of every American's constitutional right to purchase and ignite damn-fool explosives in flammable areas.  As a sort of gun proxy, or something.  Or maybe just because it's "bidness".  

              "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

              by lgmcp on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:26:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  More broadly I would say... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, NMLib

      ...it's very risky to pick for VP a first-term Governor who never before held high office and is so little-known she's very difficult to vet.  That was the real lesson Palin as it applies across-the-board.

      As an aside, no picking a right-wing Hispanic does not help the GOP win Hispanic votes.  They'll still be stuck in the mid-30s with Hispanics.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 09:40:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Although a lot of Palin's liabilities (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CarolinNJ

        were know quantities. It's just that Steve Schmidt thought they wouldn't matter as much as her base appeal (I'm not sure if I buy into the idea that he was stupid enough to think she would actually appeal to independent women).

        •  Oh, no, they were not known quantities (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, MichaelNY

          On the contrary, Palin had sky-high job approvals and legitimately could claim to have put together bipartisan deals with the state legislature while pissing off a lot of her own party.  She wasn't perceived a moderate for all that, she was still known to be a die-hard right-winger, but she was perceived as effective and capable of getting past party labels to get things done.

          That she's such a disaster wasn't well-known.

          Now, maybe there were some inside players in Alaska who knew it, but they would've been offset by establishment supporters of Palin, and the realities of in-state personal and factional rivalries complicate who to trust.  It's not unlike South Carolina, where the GOP dominates yet is internally badly divided to the point of constant fratricide, so much so that they just failed to pass a new Congressional re-map, and Governors find their vetoes overturned by legislatures dominated by their own party.

          I don't think there was any anticipating that Palin would be as huge a disaster as she was.  No one could have guessed she'd bomb so badly in the Couric interview as she did.

          But the simple fact of deep inexperience and political immaturity were knowns, and what Martinez shares even if she's a million times better than Palin.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:03:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Guys, guys (5+ / 0-)

        Jim Baker might be listening. I think you mean that Martinez is a FABULOUS pick for them, right? ;)

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:04:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Plus (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        New Mexico is a relatively small state, it'd be one thing to pick a first-term governor from even a mid-sized state like, say, Georgia (not the current governor of Georgia, but you get my drift) or Virginia, being fairly popular in a small state is easy; being popular as your state gets larger is, of course, another story.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:33:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The only reason she's popular (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CarolinNJ, dc1000, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      Is because there's a Dem legislature keeping her from enacting radical conservative policies.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02; Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:06:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  On NYSenate and IDC (9+ / 0-)

    I and some other NY bloggers met with the most liberal member of the IDC, Diane Savino, a few months back.  We asked her a lot about their plans and we directly asked her what the IDC would do if we elect 32 Democrats in 2012 (enough for the majority).  She explicitly told us that the IDC would not throw the majority to the GOP because, quite simply, the four members of the IDC are not Republicans.  They believe in Democratic policy and quite frankly, three out of the four of them would almost certainly be cooked if they helped the Republicans prevail.

    Now, I don't discount the possibility of a sort of minority coalition government ala multiparty PM systems, that is that the 4 IDC members (maybe more if they actually campaign for people in 2012) vote for a Democrat for majority leader but shift their votes on specific issues, depending on the issue.  That wouldn't be so different from the way the Dems ran the caucus in 2008.  

    The big problem, as the IDC has made it clear, is that they really do not like John Sampson as Majority Leader.  So ideally the Dems can come up with a compromise ML and bury the hatchet.  And frankly, I can't blame them for their dislike of Sampson.  

    Fact are stubborn things. -John Adams

    by circlesnshadows on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:49:23 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, unless these four (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, AUBoy2007

      Have actually caused problems with policy by making it worse or more conservative, I think calling them wanker-ific is a little unfair.  My impression has always been that their disagreement is personal/ethical/competence-based, not ideological, and I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise.  But hey, there's a lot I don't know, so maybe not.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:01:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You hit the nail on the head (4+ / 0-)

        Basically the four IDC are loathe to back the ethically challenged NYS Senate Dem leadership.

        A big reason why the Dems lost the Senate in 2010 was the Senate leadership (Wilson, Sampson, Kruger and Espada) were too busy lining their own pockets and bickering over spoils to pass the Democrats legislative agenda.

        Remember Dems controlled the Senate, Assembly & Governor yet still could not pass the Gay Marriage Bill, a rent control law or any other big agenda items.

        Yes they could agree to raise taxes and spend more on members items but that was about it.

        If the Senate Dems can get rid of Sampson and Wilson (either through a coup or an indictment) you would see the IDC come back into the fold.

        Basically they don't want to be the ones to give the keys back to Sampson and Co who they feel blew a golden opportunity.

        Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

        by izengabe on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:54:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Heck, look at the voting record from last term (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          NYPIRG came out with a report on voting patterns from the past session, and the overwhelming majority of the Democratic caucus voted with Jeff Klein more often than John Sampson!  Frankly if it wasn't for the extremely closed-ranked loyalty of the black caucus of the Dems, Sampson would not be majority leader.  But Jeff Klein isn't an option either, so this only gets settled when we have a compromise majority leader choice.  Andrea Stewart-Cousins is mentioned a lot because she's black, suburban, and popular with some of the progressives.  But she does not have a very strong personality.  Maybe they'll have her with a strong caucus leader behind her (hey Mike Gianaris...) or maybe someone else will figure out how to appease the black caucus.  Tough to say for sure at this point.

          Fact are stubborn things. -John Adams

          by circlesnshadows on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:30:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Which is why Spitzer really screwed NY (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Nickers

            by picking Patterson for LT Governor. Patterson not only made a really bad Governor but also robbed the NYS Senate Dems of the 1 guy who could actually lead the Dems in the Senate.

            Patterson for all his faults was never a crook (which is rare in NYS politics) and was really an ideal person to lead Senate Dems.

            Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

            by izengabe on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 07:22:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NY-13 Cusick (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, CarolinNJ

    I really don't see him running.  His name is always brought up every election cycle since his seat is one of the few that is firmly on Staten Island and in territory Fossella and Grimm carried.  He comes from mid island, mod to conservative territory that is much more purple that the north shore of McMahon and Savino's council and senate seats.  Cusick didn't jump in in 08 when the GOP ticket fell apart and had no incumbent.  He stalled forever while being undecided with most everyone is the party yielding to him.  The guy is risk adverse and since I don't see how the dem primary would be cleared for him he won't give up his Assembly seat to run.

  •  NY-09 Conservative Party Endorsement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY
    Queens County Conservative Party Chairman Tom Long told The Politicker this afternoon that his party has all but made up their mind on who their candidate will be in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in the 9th Congressional District.

    “Mr. Turner is our candidate, he will be getting our endorsement,” Long said. “And hopefully Republicans will do the same.”

    http://www.politickerny.com/...

    I'd imagine this give Republicans the reason to go with Turner.  We all know what happens with Republican vote-splitting.

    23, male, Democrat, NY-05 (born + early childhood), NY-21 (college), NY-09 (current)

    by Nickers on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:15:41 AM PDT

  •  About the NC-13 situation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nickers, MichaelNY

    The NCGOP hates Brad Miller.  Because of the redistricting that ensued in the previous gerrymandering, Miller was pretty much insured of a win each and every time he ran.  It became a blue district sectioned out from some red districts to give him that advantage.  

    Now?  The repugs are "getting even" and even though there is lip service by the reps that represent the districts mandated as being minority-owned, are hollering, it won't change how the districts in NC...or any other state that went from blue-legislative to red-legislative.  This has been the spoils that have been given to the winners for decades and decades all around our country.

    More reason to come up with some other way to configure districts in states.  No, I don't have the answer, but I can bitch with the best of 'em.

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:15:50 AM PDT

  •  A Burst of Anger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nickers, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    Forgive me if this is out of place, but:

    1. Paul Broun compares me and other progressives to al Qaeda? I mean, this is almost beyond words. It's like when Newt Gingrich blamed liberalism for when that mother from South Carolina kid her kids and then herself in the early 1990s: so beyond the pale for normal political discourse, yet it won't get called out by the press.

    Now, I am not a veteran, but look no further than the last round of Democrats to see plenty of progressives have served. As far as I can tell, Broun has never served. But even though I've never served, I'll take the liberty on behalf of these guys and progressives in general to tell Broun to go fuck himself. Seriously, you mother fucker, die a horrible, painful death, where you end up alone, naked in a cold room, with leaches and rats sucking on open wounds on your body while salt is falling from the sky to burn. You deserve it, you piece of shit.

    There, I am done.

    (And no, I don't actually mean this. I just say it to vent. I hate it when I am like that, but man I am ornery this morning. Also, isn't it clear how outrageous such talk really is? But Braun can say shit like that, and I can't, I would think.)

    Oh yeah, Broun's the same fucking moron who wants to lower the debt ceiling to $13 trillion. Kevin Drum estimates this would mean that total federal spending would be down to $1.3 trillion in fiscal year 2012. Either he's the ultimate cynic in putting this out there as a reasonable response, or he's too stupid for words to describe.

    2. Seriously, Lincoln Chaffee, what the fuck? Unless there's something about this bill I just don't know about, what the fuck? Did you strip people of their collective bargaining rights yet?

    3. Well, as I am sure many of you know, the White House is supposedly ready to bargain on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Without going too much into policy, the first is probably the most defensible, as there is probably a decent chunk of savings in the form of payment methods. If it comes from strengthening cost controls in the Affordable Care Act or something similar, it could be a good thing, as Jon Chait says. Cuts to Medicaid are a lot more worrisome, as the program is dirt cheap to begin with. Here, more than with Medicare I think, the devil is definitely in the details. As far as Social Security goes, this better be little else besides the switch to some inflation calculation or means testing. I mean, it's so not a problem right now it's not even funny. I can't help but think that the blogger Economics of Contempt (whom you should all be reading) is right when he says this is a ploy, as there's no way the White House can reform Social Security in two weeks.

    The big thing for me is revenue increases. Is the other side willing to make anything aside from the most casual changes to expenditures. I remember reading last night that Cantor had agreed to some stuff, but didn't he also walk out? Is Boehner really agreeing to up to a $1 trillion in revenue increases? Sure, the ratio is lopsided, but given the shit fit the other side would have, that's amazing if true.

    Granted, it's still too small. But again, is it true? Will any revenue at all be raised? I have to wonder just what is behind closed doors. If there's no way that any sort of revenue will be raised and/or they are determined to do something nuts like attach a balanced budget amendment, then I can't see any real agreement. Perhaps the Obama White House realizes there's a chance that no legitimate deal can be made and is trying to stick its neck out to seem most reasonable--i.e. not backing Social Security cuts in the campaign but merely saying he tried to put everything on the table while Republicans wouldn't.

    Suffice it to say, I agree with the Economics of Contemptwhen he says he hopes Phil Schiliro knows what he is doing. If there's a really shitty deal in the works, while I'll probably still vote for Obama if I get around to showing up, I won't give him any money, and I might just be done with politics for a good long time.

    •  Looks like you the making of a diary, friend. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

      by lgmcp on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:53:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, if I did that, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lgmcp, SaoMagnifico

        I'd guess we might see a new record for the number of times profanity could be used in a certain number of words. I mean, is "Mother fucking douche bag, asshole piece of shit, dick bag cock-sucking rotten prick that deserves to have his pathetic, shit-for-brains, fat mother fucking ass beaten" really a legitimate sentence?

        Seriously now, I try not to be an aggressive person when it comes to using force. I've had people come at me before and get in my face in public places, and I just take. I don't really care unless someone actually throws a punch. There's no use in fighting with a drunken asshole or anyone else like that, I feel. I also try to avoid conflict even when passions run really high, like this. I might vent verbally, but that's it. I also used to feel differently about a lot of these Republicans--not good, of course, but it's not as if I felt contempt and rage if not downright hatred for them. That's changed dramatically in the last few months. I internalize this stuff far too frequently, as while I know it's very bad for me to do that, I can't help it.

    •  Broun comments (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Aren't far removed from Markos comparing Republicans to the Taliban IMO. As for any deal I will say what I always say - when people look at it in detail after the dust settles it won't look half as bad. Remember the shutdown deal?

      •  I'm not necessarily gonna say (0+ / 0-)

        That the shut down deal was horrible, but if you're referring to the fact that it actually didn't cut net spending by that much, that's misleading. It shifted a lot of spending from social programs to military.

      •  I'm trying to (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        keep an open mind, but it's hard. Correct me if I am wrong, but a default on U.S. debt is quite a bit worse than a government shutdown, so the stakes are a lot higher. Perhaps Obama wouldn't lose because of one, but I don't think he's willing to take that chance. The Republicans, though, probably are, for any number of reasons. Thus, it seems like they hold the upper hand.

        Then again, as John Cole said on Twitter, I am old enough to remember when progressives didn't freak out over unsourced rumors in The Washington Post. That comment snapped me back into reality.

        •  Republicans do have the upper hand (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As soon as they won the House last November we all knew Obama and Democrats in general would have to do some painful things. But they still have a say in making them as painless as possible.

          •  I usually overreact when I first hear these things (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I'm more than willing to admit I freak out far too easily when I read this crap. If we get reasonable Medicare cuts in the vein of cost controls in the A.C.A. and/or minor Social Security changes, which were bound to happen at some point, then that's fine. The devil is definitely in the details, though.

            The problem that I have, as I said before, is that the stakes are so high. Bill Maher described it perfectlly when he said he's not so sure the president has "got this," unlike the many times in the past (i.e. Sarah Palin being picked) when we've freaked out and he's remained calm. I'd love to look back in a few months at how much I worried over what was nothing, but I worry that we'll be back to close to one million lay offs per month.

    •  On Paul Broun (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, itskevin

      This is nothing new, Broun is a batshit crazy right-wing lunatic the same as Bachmann and Steve King and Tom Tancredo and on and on.  The only difference is Broun isn't a camara hog, he doesn't seek out TV appearances all the time, so he's not as visible.  But on the internet his extreme and insane rants get publicized in print, and this is nothing new.

      There are actually a lot of Republican U.S. House members who are exactly the same as Michele Bachmann and Steve King.  Like Broun, most of them just aren't camara hogs, so we learn of their racism and other bigotry and McCarthyist rants only sporadically.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 09:46:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        In the end, it's not like these comments have a clear and direct effect on my life. But still, they are infuriating for a lot of reasons.

        Plus, this might sound childish, but it's just not fair our side. If we point out that some spending cuts might lead people to suffer, that's out of the bounds of discourse. But if they accuse Obama over trying to implement slave labor camps because he called for a national service program, nobody seems to care. There really isn't sort of equivalent on the left. There are some people, perhaps more in government than I realize, but every indication leads me to the conclusion that it's a bigger problem on the right. Far more people make a far greater number of ridiculous comments far too frequently.

  •  It's Butterfield and Watt are opposing the map (7+ / 0-)

    Too many times these legislators in minority districts will go along with whatever Republicans throw out, a long as it keeps their own seats safe.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:32:47 AM PDT

    •  i've always liked both of them (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      sadly, many of our black democrats are corrupt machine politicians or not team players.

      members like the two from NC, sanford bishop, john lewis (obviously), jim clyburn, bobby scott, and andre carson, on the other hand, are excellent and i very much like each of them

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:01:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice to see GK Butterfield and Mel Watt (8+ / 0-)

    not acting like Lacy Clay.

  •  Rothenberg responds to PPP/TPM (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    To be honest, I'm having a hard time poking holes in his argument.  That doesn't excuse his assholish behavior of late though.  I'm still not sure how his ridiculous calling-out of a young TPM reporter got through the editing process.

    •  Stu is probably right, honestly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:15:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If he is (11+ / 0-)

        It's certainly not on the basis of the strength of his arguments.

        In this poll, PPP asked about Scott’s effect immediately after a series of ballot tests and favorable/unfavorable ratings, so that respondents at the other end of the telephone had only Scott and possibly a few other political names on their minds.

        Series? No. Two questions, total: The aforementioned job approval, and a rematch with Sink. Now of course, this is part of a much larger survey, and we don't know what Tom's exact call script was, so it's possible these questions came way late in the poll. But in that case, the respondents would have had a lot more to think about before reaching this question. So either way he's wrong.

        That was the entire context of their thinking and of their responses.

        How does Rothenberg know what these people were thinking about? We're dealing with a robopollster, not robo-respondents.

        They weren’t asked about issues, the economy or anything else that might color their thinking about the 2012 presidential race when they actually have to cast a ballot.

        This is sloppy and vague - "color their thinking"? Perhaps he's suggesting that PPP could have asked a priorities-based question - i.e., which issue will most affect your decision-making when it comes to supporting a presidential candidate next year: economy, nat'l security, Rick Scott, etc.

        But to argue that the Florida governor will cost the Republicans the state in 2012 is to argue that Scott will be more important than the presidential candidates, the issues and all of the media coverage surrounding the contest.

        No it isn't. Rick Scott doesn't have to be MORE important than Barack Obama and the GOP nominee and all the other issues to act as a downward drag on the Republican ticket. Scott just needs to be a little bit important, particularly in a close race.

        If you believe that, you don’t understand campaigns and elections.

        Jesus fucking Christ I am so sick of Rothenberg's career-long inability to express himself without insulting others who disagree with him. What an ass.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:33:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  . (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, drhoosierdem, itskevin

          I agree with you, David.

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:36:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I took the core of his point (6+ / 0-)

          to be that the "more likely/less likely" to vote for questions are not useful at measuring much. I agree with that.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:45:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then as we say here (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, dc1000, MichaelNY, xcave, itskevin

            He could have posted a comment, not a full diary. ;) In any event, like I say, even if these questions can't measure "much," they can measure a little... and that's all that matters in a close race.

            Put another way: Would Florida Republicans rather have a popular governor or an unpopular one? Not a hard question to answer.

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:48:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So do I, but this is the 1st he's said that (6+ / 0-)

            I always roll my eyes at "more likely/less likely" questions, and I roll my eyes even more at polling memos and political reporters taking results to this question to the bank in concluding what voters care about.  I'm largely convinced that most people who say they're more likely or less likely to vote a certain way based on a certain thing are partisans anyway, and the question reveals just one of a long list of reasons they favor a particular party.

            But I don't recall Rothenberg ever before making this argument.  In fact, I've never seen anyone in the political media ever point out the very limited value of these questions.  That Rothenberg chose this occasion to point this out makes me think he feels pretty threatened by PPP.  That he threw in an insult at the end, as David points out, reinforces my view that Stu wrote this defensively, feeling personally threatened.

            I wouldn't be shocked if one could dig through Rothenberg's history of writings and find ones where he actually relied on more likely/less likely polling results to draw his own conclusions.  It's so ubiquitous of political reporters to do that, that I'd almost be more surprised if Rothenberg never did, than if he did.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 09:59:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  First of all, is PPP making a defintive conclusion (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, dc1000

          about Rick Scott's effect, or any other governor's effect, on the presidential race? Unless I missed something, the analysis from PPP suggests it can be a factor, perhaps even a big one, but that it's not at all clear exactly what will happen.

          It's as if PPP is saying that, given two option, people will pick the one they are less disgusted with, and Rick Scott is making it easier for people to feel less disgusted with Democrats and more disgusted with Republicans. Perhaps this won't be the case, but it's not as if PPP is suggesting that his bald head will be the deciding factor?

    •  I don't blame the editors (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, askew, itskevin

      For his outrageous slam on Terbush - I blame Rothenberg! (Though it is embarrassing that Roll Call didn't see fit to edit that out.)

      Anyhow, how about this:

      In this case, the question about Scott is likely measuring the public’s evaluation of his job performance, which apparently was not asked by PPP in this survey.

      I'm not sure if there's anyone more thorough than PPP - they ask pretty much every question they can think of. But in any event, the question Rothenberg wants is Q1 of the survey (PDF)!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:20:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We Are Wisconsin PAC (7+ / 0-)

    Raised an addition 4.3 million dollars for Team Blue.

  •  Weprin in NY-09 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew, itskevin

    David Catanese cited this report that David Weprin will be the choice:

    http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

    Probably a better candidate than Holtzman too.  Thankfully Crowley realizes that there's more at stake than parochial concerns here.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:35:56 AM PDT

  •  General Demographic Question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It seems like, when discussing urban areas that have increased their white % since the last census (usually pretty mildly), people often attribute it to an influx of new white residents "pushing out" longtime nonwhite residents.  However, these areas are also often areas that have declined in overall population, so an increased white % does not necessarily imply an increase in white population, as opposed to a slower decrease in the white population (or the extent to which it's one or the other)--nor does it address the extent of population turnover or the effects of new residents.  What kind of empirical work has been done that parses these differences?  

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 09:38:16 AM PDT

  •  CA-36: Fox Affilliate Hit Piece on Hahn (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.politico.com/...

    But it's a crushing piece for the Hahn campaign -- as it replays video of convicted drug dealers and rapists speaking about how they received assistance from the Democratic nominee in the 36th Congressional District.

    Hahn wouldn't sit for another interview, but is quoted in 2008 saying that gang members are "part of the solution."

    Time for some rapid response.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:39:36 AM PDT

  •  Best part of that NH State House story (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Wheaton resigned from office after some "Driving without a license" charges. And then decided to run in the special election for his seat. He won 16 votes. Under 2%. Tied for last place.

    At least Marty Harty (remember him? the 91yo Republican coattailed into office who resigned after saying that eugenics was a good idea?) didn't run for his old seat.

    16 votes.

    Maybe NH should just elect the 400 members in one-on-one elections, with multiple one-on-one elections in some towns. Instead of the "vote for no less than 13" stuff in some towns. Just have one primary and find a way to rank the candidates for which "place" they're running in by their primary vote totals. The most popular Dem nominee v. the least popular Rep nominee, and the opposite and so on.

    Random note: the most ridiculous election of the cycle could be the "vote for no less than 11" election for the Luzerne County Council. But they'll split it to only have 6-seat and 5-seat elections in future years. But from what I could find, the Reps and Dems got squads of 11 that may not be on the same page. Guess we can't have district elections everywhere.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:03:18 AM PDT

  •  Bad news out of NH (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Romney leads by a hair.

    I assume others will have more to say, but there's really no good spin to this.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:17:40 AM PDT

    •  Well, bad news if the election was tomorrow (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, James Allen, MichaelNY
      •  Pray for Bachman (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, James Allen

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:22:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Certainly she would be an easier opponent (6+ / 0-)

          but there is no need to panic about a poll from 16 months from election day showing Romney by 2 in what is probably his strongest swing state.  I expect Bachmann and others to come close to Obama in polls in NH too,  just given how much  attention the state is going to get from the GOP through the primary process.

          •  I wish it were panic (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, AUBoy2007

            I just don't see how the situation improves materially. I think the President has until next April to make the country feel better, or he's in dire trouble.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:30:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, that's a bit of a misnomer (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, MichaelNY

              The president isn't the one who makes the country feel better. But he's got to be hoping to be perceived as the winner in these debt ceiling talks - and he knows that if they collapse, the Republican Party will be committing a murder-suicide and hoping their phoenix is the first to crawl coughing from the rubble.

              Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:35:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I have a different view: (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                AUBoy2007, MichaelNY, James Allen

                Any "win" from these debt talks will be fleeting if the employment situation (and thus the mood of the country) does not improve substantially. The President can't say that isn't his job, because he will be held responsible for it anyway.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:37:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That last sentence is definitely true (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  As for the debt talks, if they fall through, the employment situation will get much worse. President Obama obviously can't bank on that political win, but he has to hold serve here or he's going to be down two sets to love.

                  Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:05:53 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He's screwed this up from the start (0+ / 0-)

                    He should have said "Congress needs to send me a clean bill that I can sign without delay" months ago. Now he's just negotiating against himself--again.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:35:46 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I hope you're joking (5+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      NMLib, askew, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, sawolf

                      Obama said exactly that months ago, exactly as you say he should've done.

                      The Rethugs (yes they are thugs) said no.

                      That's that, there's no forcing their hand like you want.

                      Oh, and Obama got that clean vote, and far more than enouigh GOPers voted "no" to kill it even without a single Dem opposing it.

                      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:13:45 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I never heard him give that statement (0+ / 0-)

                        in public. In any case, the onus should always have been on Congress. As the WH was once fond of saying, the President has now power to pass legislation himself.

                        Ok, so I read the polls.

                        by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:15:22 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Obama said it in public, and... (0+ / 0-)

                          ...Boehner was not going to allow a vote on a clean debt ceiling hike unless and until he knew he had the votes to kill it, and thought it politically advantageous for his party to make the point.

                          The only blame I place on anybody in all this is Steny Hoyer who short-sightedly pushed his caucus to vote "no" on the clean hike after so much pressing for a clean hike.  Either the debt ceiling is hiked or the economy tumbles, and either way voting for the hike ends up politically being either painless or actually a  strength with voters.  But Hoyer idiotically looked at inconsequential immediate polling that showed public opposition and pushed his caucus to vote "no."

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:43:39 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

            •  I dont disagree with that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The jobs data today was good. Hopefully, it's part of a trend. I dont think Obama needs 1990s style jobs growth to win, but he needs steady growth every month/drop in the unemployment rate.

              •  418K? I don't think that's so hot (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                aggou

                But then, I'm not an economist.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:45:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, some perspective (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  andgarden, askew, MichaelNY

                  Even in a booming jobs market, the figure is in the 300-325k range. And the number did drop. The ADP number was also much better than expect. But the official report is tomorrow, which is the most important.  

                  •  At some point, it has to get better. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                    If it holds its head above water (i.e. 100,000 or so jobs per month) for the rest of 2012 and then sees better (i.e. 200,000 jobs per month or more) for 2012, he should be fine.

                  •  The key figure is 400K (I know this) (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew, MichaelNY

                    I'm an unemployment compensation attorney, I pay attention to this every week, and the magic number is 400K.  Below that, we've good real good job growth and unemployment decline.  Above that just a little, we're holding steady.  Above 400K by a lot, and we're struggling and still clearly in a bad jobs recession.

                    We definitely slipped the past 3 months after a good 1st quarter.

                    Economic signals haven't been consistent.  We keep hearing GDP was awful, 1.9%, in Q1, and yet the news reports that say that fail to acknowledge in the same breath that job growth actually was strong in Q1 and unemployment dropped dramatically.  GDP was much stronger in Q4 2010, but job growth was weaker then than in Q1 2011.  So there's not always consistency in data.

                    Ultimately unemployment rate and job growth figures are what the public and media really care about.  That's where we need good numbers tomorrow morning.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:42:43 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Not good (6+ / 0-)

      The only good spin to it that I can think of is that New Hampshire is only four electoral votes, and at last polling, President Obama was crushing Romney in Virginia (worth a lot more) and Florida (worth a hell of a lot more).

      Romney doesn't get elected president without winning Virginia and Florida. New Hampshire, like Montana, is a nice feather in the cap but small fish in terms of EVs.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:30:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not "good spin," it's sober reality (6+ / 0-)

        NH is Romney's virtual home state.  He actually lives there nowadays, and he's campaigning there All.  The.  Time.

        And NH is a swing state to boot.

        And we're still in a jobs recession, people are still hurting.

        So of course Romney will have a lead there!  He's going to do better there than in any other swing state, and he trails Obama narrowly in most other swing states, so that translates to a lead in NH.

        That it's still low-single digits in NH, and Obama is just barely underwater (46-49 in both NH polls this week, 1st UNH then PPP), is actually not a bad position at all for us.  We still have a long time for the economy to recover and put Obama on top here and get him a little more breathing room in other key states.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:52:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree that it is reality (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          See my comment above. But what concerns me is that unemployment isnt that bad in NH. It's 4.8%, yes, higher than the3.4% it was before the recession, but also lower than the 6.7% last year.  I do think it's more of a home state effect from Romney than the economy.

          link

          •  What do you think (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            of the notion that, despite people being more familiar with him than they are in other states, most people are giving him the benefit of the doubt because he's Not Obama more than he is Romney? People don't seem to love him, and I see nothing on the horizon that will change that. When he's attacked as the nominee, if it comes to that, people will be reminded that he's a ridiculous flip flopper and has precisely zero plans for job creation outside of tax cuts for the rich. I bet Obama will start to look a lot better.

          •  NH still suffers from the recession (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The housing market there still has problems just like everywhere else.

            And more importantly people tend to think nationally more than provincially in national politics.  Provincial thinking used to be more prevalent, but that's greatly declined in my lifetime.  So if the country is in a recession, voters in states doing much better still disapprove of the President's job performance.  NH voters don't feel secure about the NH economy or their personal economic future if most of the rest of the country still remains in trouble.  And actually, that's smart, there's no reason NH can't get dragged down if the country's economy goes further south.

            So yeah, the economy is a big factor.

            And Romney's home-state effect also is a big factor.

            It's not either/or; both matter.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:09:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  True (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              NH is unique given that Romney is from the neighboring state, and it will get a lot of GOP attention b/c of the primary process. But I didnt mention to suggest the economy is great there, just that it seems to better than in most other states.  

          •  Didn't see your comment before I posted mine. (0+ / 0-)

            My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

            by drhoosierdem on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:56:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  NH (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. When I was up there I could not believe all of the help wanted signs I saw outside of stores.

          My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

          by drhoosierdem on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:56:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  That's a good point (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

          People talk about Romney as the former Massachusetts governor, or Romney as the son of the former Michigan governor (ancient history by now), or Romney as a Utahn (mostly because he's Mormon, I think), but he really does live in New Hampshire and it's been the one and only target of his campaign to date.

          Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:07:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Nah, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drobertson, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

        Romney could win without VA, but he deff can't do it without FL. The without VA combo would be winning OH, NC, and either CO or IA. Although, the IA map would make it 269-269 0_o

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:04:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And Obama lead Romney in FL (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, askew

          Two weekends ago.

          •  I wasnt sayinh he wasnt (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I was saying Romney could win, without taking VA by other states. But FL is a must for him.

            DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

            by aggou on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 03:00:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  If Romney is losing Virginia, he's losing outright (6+ / 0-)

          Sure, there are other paths, but the odds of actually achieving them are low.

          25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 02:29:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            aggou

            In 2008, Obama did 1.3% better in Iowa and 1% better in Colorado than in Virginia. I think it's likely that Obama's approval has fallen off more in IA than in VA, and quite possible that it's decreased more in CO than in VA. I would say IA flips before VA does, and that CO and VA have about an equal chance of flipping.

            Male, VA-08, Born CA-36, SwingStateProject expat

            by drobertson on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 02:44:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm talking uniform swing (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              Virginia swung exactly the same as the national as a whole did, about 5 points. It's more Republican as a whole, so if it's voting for Obama, the overall swing will be not enough for Romney to win. It's not about the order states will fall, it's about how Virginia is indicative of the overall swing.

              25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

              by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 06:54:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Agree, we're going to see states all together (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                We're not going to win Virginia and yet lose Iowa and Wisconsin and Colorado and whatever else.  Presidential elections just don't work that way.  They can be very close, but the map has patterns, and even when patterns change those changes are predictable with certain states all moving together.

                We're going to win all but a stray one or two of those most important swing states, or lose all but one or two of them.  There won't be a weird mix.  And we're not going to win Virginia and lose the election, Virginia just isn't far enough on the left for that result to happen.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:45:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Why is that bad news? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, jj32, askew, MichaelNY

      Romney was always a slight favorite here.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:50:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, I disagree. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's never good to be underwater unless you are merely gaining and about to close the gap, so no, it's not good that he's losing to Romney. But given that he's only down by two when Romney's beating him by 11 with Independents is, to me, an indication this, more than any other state besides Florida or Ohio, will be very, very close.

      These people appear to be the epitome of fickle, so while they are pissed with him now, they might not be so pissed with him in a week, let alone a month. Plus, if nothing else, Romney is just not being attacked in a pronounced way right now. That will certainly change if and when he is the nominee.

      I was worried this was going to be a lot worse. All things considered, it could be.

    •  Overdramatic... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, askew

      The result isn't that surprising considering this is near Romney's base, and Obama hasn't exactly been lighting it up in other NH polls.

      There was an ARG poll last week (sketchy track record I know) that showed Obama with a 39% approval rating in NH.

      One of the papers did a poll a month or two ago that showed Obama down by 7 (or something similar) to Romney in NH.

      Down 2 points in a swing state more than a year out from the election is seriously not a big deal.

    •  That's only 2% better than McCain (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Romney's only getting slightly above what the floor of Republican support is in the state under regular circumstances. That's evident in a lot of polls.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 02:25:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Where is the McCain/Obama numbers? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Am I missing it, I don't see the question?

      PPP puts out a zillion polls in the past few years with that question, but it isn't here.  

      Big outlier red flag.  Did they not report the question because the result was out of whack?  (If they are going to stop asking, that is a terrible decision on their part, since it will open them up to more criticism of bias.)

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 04:15:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PPP is on target, exactly same as UNH (5+ / 0-)

        UNH came out with their latest NH poll earlier this week, with same job approval (46-49) for Obama, and down vs. Romney 47-43 (compared to nearly identical 46-44 in PPP).

        Two very different polls, different methodologies, virtually identical results.

        This is real.

        But it's not a big deal.  NH is a swing state and Obama is borderline on reelection against a competent Republican.  So of course he's down 2-4 points there for the moment, that's perfectly sensible.  But it's worth nothing more than a shrug.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:54:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I could see losing NH and gaining in others (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          NH was countercyclical in '04.

          Nevertheless, I agree with your point earlier in the comments w/r/t other swing states moving together. I just could see NH being the exception.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:13:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree on NH as exception w/Romney (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, James Allen

            NH should be the swing state where Romney, if the nominee, does best.  If a lot of other swing states are real close, then he should win NH.

            With other GOPers, I expect NH will go with the crowd.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:20:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Despite Nate's analysis (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              My gut feel for Romney's chances is going up to 50/50. All of these early polls showing surges by others is reducing expectations for Mittens.

              He'd have a decent chance of flipping NH, for similar reasons to why Kerry flipped NH.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:28:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Expectations don't matter, but what does is... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                ...his increasing electability in polling.

                To me, it's proof PPP plays it straight by talking this up as a key result in all their state-by-state general election trial heats.  PPP is not doing us any favors by saying that!  It just gives Republican voters a reason to suck it up, hold their noses, and pick him.

                It's not just current polling, which by itself isn't worth much.  I think on the fundamental qualities of the candidates, Romney clearly really is more electable than any of the others.  I think that's been true all along among the people actually running plus Perry if he runs, but now the polling is catching up to the fundamentals.

                So we have more reason than ever to root for anyone but Romney to be the GOP nominee.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:38:52 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  The real-ness of it would be more clear (0+ / 0-)

          if they asked the question.

          At this point, the lack of the question is more of a question than the poll itself.

          I don't doubt a close race between Obama and Romeny in NH right now, but if this poll is like most of their's (2008 sample) that is HUGELY different than if it is a sample like Montana and Pennsylvania (2010 sample).  If it is a 2008 sample, this is the first poll showing Romney doing significantly better than McCain anywhere... and if it is the 2010-like sample, then it fits exactly with the Montana and Pennsylvania polls, and then also is an outlier to all their other polls.

          http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

          by tommypaine on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 01:46:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not accurate analysis (0+ / 0-)

            Obama's polling nationally and state-by-state has fluctuated signficantly this year, with good stretches after mid-January and again after killing bin Laden.  So PPP's polls over that time aren't all comparable.  Some states have been polled only when Obama was doing well, others only when he was doing poorly.

            And pretending Romney shouldn't do better than McCain is silly.  The jobs economy is crappy, and voters increasingly blame Obama over time, so his position simply isn't as advantageous as it was in summer/fall 2008.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:37:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Two possibilities (0+ / 0-)

        a) PPP does extensive polls (as you know) and breaks them into multiple parts. So this question could appear in another section.

        b) It's simply possible to forget a question on your script now and again. I've definitely gnashed my teeth over failing to include questions in polls I've commissioned myself!

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 01:29:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wisconsin Republicans are (5+ / 0-)

    stripping Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson of her title and allowing the majority to pick the Chief Justice. The have the gaul to worry about this, over Prosser. I literally cannot believe the extent to which they are going.

     fb.me/Rr01D3oE

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:26:24 AM PDT

  •  Independent American Party (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    is a Constitution Party affiliate in Nevada.  So Fasano should take votes from the GOP in that race.

    •  I wouldn't count on it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      These right-wing 3rd parties virtually never register.  Occasionally a Libertarian actually gets 1-2%, but never when it would throw an election to a Dem.

      Unless Fasano has real money to buy visibility and voter contact, he won't help us.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:55:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The other dude is running from the left (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      So it is a push, one right gadfly, one left gadfly.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 04:18:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Walker campaign donors exceed limits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    Story from the Journal sentinel:
    http://www.jsonline.com/...

  •  Another Justice Prosser blow up at the Capitol! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY, KingofSpades, DCCyclone

    Attack of the inflatable Prosser!  This time on tape.

    link to story:http://www.jsonline.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:04:03 PM PDT

  •  Not bad fundraising for Donnelly (6+ / 0-)

    Hopefully Mourdock successfully teabags Lugar, as much as it breaks my heart how far he's fallen (Lugar is the only Republican I've ever voted for).

    Now I want a candidate for IN-02

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02; Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:13:39 PM PDT

    •  We really do (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      ... need a solid candidate for the 2nd district.  Given that's your neck of the woods, do you have any suggestions of who might be good?  Yeah, the district has gotten a lot harder, but it's not an unwinnable one, especially if this time turnout is going to be higher, more Democratic, and a wider range of people are going to (hopefully) take a much closer look at Wacky Jackie.

  •  Perry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    Sings the cut, cap, and balance pledge:

    http://www.bizjournals.com/...

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 01:19:39 PM PDT

  •  Roll Call just retweeted this (0+ / 0-)

    picture of the "Lugar" burger. Which is at FARM, in Bloomington. That place has some great food.

    http://t.co/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 02:02:28 PM PDT

  •  FL-11 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jncca, DCCyclone, askew

    Because of the Fair Districts amendments, the leg probably won't be able to make FL-11 any more Democratic to shore up surrounding Republicans. If anything, FL-11 will get less Dem if it becomes more compact. Still won't be enough to unseat Kathy Castor, though.

    Democrat, FL-02 (home), VT-AL (college)

    by Tallahasset on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 03:11:18 PM PDT

  •  New Recall Darling ad (8+ / 0-)

    from We Are Wisconsin:

    I've always wanted to ad this: NWOTSOTB. Did I get it right? ;-)

    •  Wow (9+ / 0-)

      I do not know if I have ever seen children speak in a political ad before, but it really does hit on the education theme in an incredible way, which is a more potent issue in this more professional middle class/wine track district than the collective bargaining issue.

      Additionally, given the massive CoH advantage Darling has, this should be amongst the top spending district for We Are Wisconsin.

      On a side note, as I have been typing this comment, this very ad played on my TV, the first I have seen so far, so it is large enough to be aired during the Simpsons on My24.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05/SD-05/AD-13 (Home), NY-22 (College), formerly Oxford East (Study Abroad)

      by glame on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 04:29:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sweet! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY
        On a side note, as I have been typing this comment, this very ad played on my TV, the first I have seen so far, so it is large enough to be aired during the Simpsons on My24.

        I read somewhere earlier today that WAW raised something like $4 million last quarter, so they should have the ability to fund some splashy campaigns.

  •  WI Recall: Whackadoodle Alert! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    This is the guy who organized the recall against Democratic Senator Dave Hansen. Because of John Nygren's incompetence, he's the Republican candidate against him:

    http://www.wispolitics.com/...

    Classic. Just Classic.

  •  question about Oregon (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    can anyone think of a good election to use as an indicator of average performance?  I'm thinking averaging Obama/Kitzhaber, but Ben Westlund and Kate Brown's in 2008 were also fairly typical overall, though not in some regions.  In any case, I'm looking at some parts of Clackamas County, which probably didn't have terribly unorthodox numbers in any of those races relative to statewide.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 04:01:05 PM PDT

  •  Howard Berman vs. Brad Sherman (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Just spoke with a friend in Berman's LA campaign office -- he will report raising over $500k for Q2, most of which came in after the Berman vs. Sherman stories broke. Anyone hear about Brad Sherman's Q2 numbers? This race will be a clash of the fundraising titans -- but what a waste of resources!

  •  I thought this might have some connection (10+ / 0-)

    to electoral politics. I'm currently at the Sac and Fox pow wow in Oklahoma. My cousin is the Second Chief (vice president) of the tribe. It's expected that in the next few years she will become the head Chief of the tribe. I thought it was cool that I'm related to a head of state! They take their sovereignty very seriously.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 04:39:52 PM PDT

  •  Rosenthal announced this last week. (0+ / 0-)

    Before the line-item veto.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:22:43 PM PDT

  •  Early Presidential Prediction - Romney v. Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    Obama 317, Romney 228

    Romney flips IN, NH, NV, and PA.

    Closest states:

    1. PA (Romney by 0)
    2. NC (Obama by 1)
    3. NV (Romney by 1)
    4. FL (Obama by 2)
    5. OH (Obama by 3)
    6. NH (Romney by 3)
    7. GA (Romney by 4)
    8. AZ (Romney by 4)
    9. MO (Romney by 6)
    10. CO (Obama by 6)

    •  Credible, if unemployment is in the low 8's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Wild guess, if it's 8.5% or above, OH and FL flips too.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:18:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Romney will flip NV? and you also think he will also flip PA, before OH? I guess I just find NV flipping the hardest to imagine....

      DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

      by aggou on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 08:37:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just dont see a scenario (4+ / 0-)

      where Obama loses PA, but win OH. More likely, the other way around, imo.

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        Good thing I'm not putting any money on this.  My logic is that Ohio has a dumb Republican governor/ideological warfare angle, whereas Pennsylvania is less so.

        I tried not to follow conventional wisdom, as life is always full of surprises.  PPP also had Romney up in PA and down in OH.

        •  True (0+ / 0-)

          Those shitty governors are going to seriously kneecap the Republican nominee, whoever he or she is, in states like Florida and Ohio. Even in Georgia and Pennsylvania, though to a lesser extent, this problem exists.

          A clever thing to do would be for the Democratic Party of Virginia to really go on the offensive against the McDonnell administration and dipshits like Atty. Gen. Cucinelli, trying to replicate the effect that Govs. Walker, Snyder, Kasich, Scott, and LePaul have had in their home states ahead of the 2012 and 2013 elections. But the DPV doesn't really do clever.

          Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:13:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The Walker / Kasich / Scott effect (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            can not be artificially replicated, nor should any state democratic party want to replicate it. It involves handing over the complete reigns of power in your state to people with heads chock full of ideas to fuck it over and letting them go to town. Attacking people like Cooch would not have the same effect because he doesn't have the same sort of power Walker does.

            •  He's already done some pretty gross things (0+ / 0-)

              The man is bad news. All I suggest is that the DPV makes his a household name and associates it with all the putrid crap he's pushing.

              But that would be thinking ahead, something Virginia Democratic technocrats are notoriously bad at.

              Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 03:48:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I realize Cooch is pretty awful (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                And I've heard about the stuff like trying to roll back non discrimination provisions at state universities and stuff like that.

                However, an AG simply does not have anywhere near the power of a Governor with both branches of the legislature to push policy which is a direct threat to the way of vast swaths of their states.

    •  The only states that may change from 2008, (0+ / 0-)

      I think, are Indiana and New Hampshire.

      "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:37:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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