A diary on the DailyKos recommended list makes the claim, oft-repeated in various traditional media and around the blogs, that John Boehner is stuck between a rock and a hard place on the budget deal. According to conventional wisdom, the newly empowered conservative base views raising the debt ceiling as anathema and unthinkable. And it is true to a certain extent that various factions of the Tea Party and many Republican freshmen would like nothing better than to see a government shutdown, under the theory that it would cause immediate and massive cuts to government spending.
And according to the conventional wisdom, John Boehner represents more of what might be seen as the traditional corporatist Republican Party, which knows how devastating defaulting on the nation's debt would be to Wall St. if nothing else, and is therefore desperate to avoid such an event. Thus, Boehner is in a tight spot--or so says conventional wisdom.
Except that conventional wisdom is, as usual, wrong. It discounts the willingness and ability of the Republican Party to use subterfuge, dealing in ill faith, and plain dishonesty in order to get what it wants while keeping its coalition together and attacking Democrats in the process. The gameplan is actually fairly simple:
1) Force the Democrats (partly with their own help) into a horrible negotiating position by threatening to take the entire country down if the Republicans don't get what they want.
2) Get everything they want, including probable cuts to social security and medicare, disguised as slight tweaks to the COLA (cost-of-living-adjustment) calculus. Which is still a cut, and worse yet, a camel's nose under the tent, from which more cuts to social security and medicare are probable in the future.
3) Complain that the compromise already stacked ridiculously in their favor doesn't go far enough.
4) When the final deal comes before the Congress, vote against it en masse, but with just enough crossover to make sure it passes by a slim margin.
5) Call these votes against the deal a principled stand against raising America's debt.
6) Force Democrats to vote en masse and alone for cuts to Medicare and Social Security.
7) Accuse Dems of cutting Social Security and Medicare because they refused to cut "wasteful spending."
8) Spend the entirety of 2012 attacking Democrats for cutting Social Security and Medicare, while proclaiming their commitment to fiscal discipline and touting their votes against increasing the debt ceiling.
No, the Republicans have this one figured out. Boehner's not in trouble at all, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
The only question is whether Democrats will fall into the trap. If past history is any indicator, they almost certainly will.