Whether it's Mitch McConnell being honest:
McConnell confidently responded, “nobody is talking about not raising the debt ceiling. I haven’t heard that discussed by anybody.”
Or
Lawrence O'Donnell analyzing how the negotiations are going:
Specific policy issues aside, President Obama has already won the public contest of who appears to be more reasonable and he won that weeks ago.
There's more (and less) to the politics of debt negotiation than appears in the media.
I've seen the case made for "the GOP has already won" but that may, in fact, not be true, at least not yet. Set aside for the moment our distaste for balancing the budget on the backs of those who can least afford it (i.e "specific policy issues aside"). Let's look at what the public thinks of all this, with an eye on the end game: passing a debt ceiling bill.
In a new poll, WaPo-Pew says:
While a plurality of Americans still believe raising the debt limit is a greater concern than the prospect of a government default, the percentage of those worried more about a default has grown since May.
That's really the key, given how few voters understand the arcane statutory debt ceiling and how they consider it a license to spend.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted July 7-10 among 1,007 adults, finds that independents are now evenly divided in concerns over the debt limit: 46% say their greater concern is that raising the limit would lead to higher government spending while 45% say their bigger concern is that not raising the limit will lead to a default. Two months ago, independents by 49% to 34% expressed more concern over raising the debt limit.
Let's assume that convincing independents that raising the debt limit is the right thing to do. Let's also assume that convincing everyone that the House GOP is extreme and unreasonable (also known as "being honest about them") is also the right thing to do. The poll suggests that some strides are being made in that area.
As usual, Republicans have not budged in their views. That's not the point, and don't expect them to—at least until Eric Cantor gives them permission to change their partisan mind. The idea that defaulting would hurt the economy, to Republicans has gone from 25 to 27 in the poll, while both Democrats and independents are becoming more alarmed.
Given the ability of the WH to command the media, and given John Boehner's perceived weakness as Speaker, expect those independent numbers to improve for the WH as we get closer to the deadline. And the better those numbers look, the better chance Obama has in forcing the GOP to do what everyone who is not a Republican (and even a few of them) knows has to be done. And at this point, that can possibly best be done by convincing Republicans that Democrats are threatening to run against Republican extremism and stubbornness in 2012.
Lawrence O'Donnell might be a bit over the top in calling this "masterful" on Obama's part, but it may just end better than it looks at the moment.