Polls have just closed in CA-36, where voters are choosing between Democrat Janice Hahn and Republican Craig Huey. It may, however, be a while before we see any results.
Earlier tonight, we saw all six "real" Democrats by-and-large clean up in their primaries in the Wisconsin recalls, though some straggler votes are still being counted. Click here for a recap.
Results: CA (SoS) | CA (AP) | CA (L.A. Registrar)
8:07 PM PT: The Los Angeles County Registrar's office says that we can expect the early voting results by 8:30pm local time (11:30pm Eastern), but that results from poll sites won't start coming in until 10pm.
8:16 PM PT: That's odd - the L.A. Registrar is already releasing some results. With 7 precincts in out of 261, Hahn is up 54-46.
8:23 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Given the relatively large number of votes with only 3% reporting, a lot of these are early/VBM votes. Our poll this week had Hahn up 51-46 with early voters. Therefore, this could be an early good sign for Hahn, since she did even better in the poll with voters who had not yet cast their ballots.
8:39 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Quick clarification from the Recorders Office: the ballots tallied so far are early vote/VBMs which arrived by Saturday 7/9.
8:43 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Some on the right, via Twitter, are already conceding defeat and gaming expectations. The argument, apparently, is that, should it happen, a single-digit Hahn win is a "weak showing." I think the NRCC would have taken a single-digit win in NY-26, don't you?
8:52 PM PT (Steve Singiser): All quiet on the western (Los Angeles County) front. Still the early votes/VBM. Still Hahn by 8.5%.
9:03 PM PT (Steve Singiser): While we wait (and wait...and wait) for new nums, I'd like to acknowledge the small number of doubters who tweeted awesome things yesterday like "If Daily Kos and SEIU have Hahn up eight, she must be really losing." The margin will undoubtedly change, but PPP looks pretty good right now. Especially since no other pollsters put their reps on the line in this special election...
9:19 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Quick thought as we await some precincts coming in: in California, half of the ballots being cast early or through VBM is not at all unusual. That is almost precisely the ratio reflected in our poll of CA-36 yesterday. Also, in special elections, it isn't all that unusual for there to be little difference in turnout between primary and general elections. The bottom line--the numbers we are seeing now may be roughly half of the total turnout.
9:28 PM PT: No surprise we're in the midst of an epic ganja break here. The 36th is home to Venice Beach, where Jim Morrison of the Doors once roosted. Plenty of "medical" marijuana dispensaries there these days.
9:43 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Following on David's point, there is also charming Hermosa Beach. Great town, but one does have to note that there are two head shops within about a block of each other on Pacific Coast Highway. One is at 424 PCH. You just know they wanted to buy the property at 420 PCH...
9:53 PM PT (Steve Singiser): The good news (!): The recorders office did say they expected results from precincts around 10 PM local. That would be in less than ten minutes. Fingers crossed, poll addicts!
9:56 PM PT (Steve Singiser): And what better way to celebrate actual vote counting (really...it's coming!) than by moving over to the new thread.