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John Lynch
Gov. John Lynch
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/30-7/5, New Hampshire voters, 3/31-4/3 in parentheses):
John Lynch (D-inc): 54 (57)
Jeb Bradley (R): 35 (33)
Undecided: 11 (10)

John Lynch (D-inc): 54 (57)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 36 (33)
Undecided: 10 (10)

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)
John Sununu (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 8 (11)

John Lynch (D-inc): 55 (57)
John Stephen (R): 34 (29)
Undecided: 11 (14)

Mark Connolly (D): 30
Jeb Bradley (R): 38
Undecided: 31

Mark Connolly (D): 34
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 40
Undecided: 26

Mark Connolly (D): 36
John Sununu (R): 44
Undecided: 20

Mark Connolly (D): 36
John Stephen (R): 36
Undecided: 28

Maggie Hassan (D): 33
Jeb Bradley (R): 39
Undecided: 28

Maggie Hassan (D): 35
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 41
Undecided: 24

Maggie Hassan (D): 36
John Sununu (R): 45
Undecided: 19

Maggie Hassan (D): 36
John Stephen (R): 37
Undecided: 27

Steve Marchand (D): 32
Jeb Bradley (R): 38
Undecided: 31

Steve Marchand (D): 33
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 40
Undecided: 27

Steve Marchand (D): 35
John Sununu (R): 44
Undecided: 21

Steve Marchand (D): 34
John Stephen (R): 36
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±3.8%)

The conclusions from PPP's newest poll of the New Hampshire governor's race are pretty easy to draw: incumbent Democratic Gov. John Lynch is still very popular (his 57-33 approval puts him in the upper echelon among the nation's governors) and a solid favorite to get another two-year term if he runs again -- but he may not, as he's already on an unprecedented fourth term. If Lynch doesn't run again, the various little-known Democrats who might vie to replace him start out behind potential Republican opponents, although it's mostly single-digit deficits.

Since you can't tell a player without a scorecard, here's a recap of who all these various possible successors are, including their favorables. As you can see from the favorables, the Democrats are significantly less known than their Republican counterparts, and their deficits are at least partly explained by their unknownness. I'd expect the races to get tighter as their name rec increases, eventually moving these races into tossup territory.

• Mark Connolly (6/21): former state director of the Bureau of Securities Regulation, known for whistleblowing a mishandled ponzi scheme investigation
• Maggie Hassan (11/22): former state Sen. majority leader
• Steve Marchand (8/18): former Portsmouth mayor, and briefly a 2008 Senate candidate
• Jeb Bradley (27/37): state Sen. majority leader and ex-U.S. Rep.
• Ovide Lamontagne (31/33): 1996 gubernatorial nominee, and loser of the 2010 GOP Senate primary
• John Sununu (40/42): the younger Sununu, i.e. the one-term U.S. Senator
• John Stephen (23/34): former state director of Health and Human Services, and losing 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 12:48 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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