There has been talk in the news recently about several southern counties in California leaving the state to form a 51st state. South California
Los Angeles Times
New York Times
All the numbers for the two states are obtained from DRA.
One brief note. I am not from California and I have only been there once. I am from Texas so I do have a desire to see my state split up. Maybe another diary in the future. If I am way off in my analysis of this hypothetical scenario let me know.
Southern California
2010 Gubernatorial Election |
Jerry Brown (D) |
44.5% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
55.5% |
2008 Presidential Election |
Barack Obama (D) |
51.2% |
John McCain (R) |
48.8% |
The commentary about the proposed state in the media has mentioned that it would be much less liberal than California as a whole, the numbers show that to be the case. Barack Obama would have won South California by about 2.4 points. The closest state in 2008 to a hypothetical South California in terms of presidential numbers was Florida with a result of 51.4% to 48.6% for Barack Obama over John McCain. However Meg Whitman would have won big with a whopping 11 point margin over Jerry Brown. South California resembles a GOP leaning swing state.
While South California would be difficult for the Democrats it would not be impossible. The demographics of South California are also a thorn in the side of the GOP. The numbers are clearly moving away from the GOP and unless they drop some of the rhetoric as the increasing Hispanic population could prove to be a problem for the GOP as the decade moves on. South California would also be about 10% Asian; the implications that would have on electoral politics are unclear to me especially being such a large proportion of the population in a swing state. With a population of 13.1 million it would be roughly on par with Illinois and Pennsylvania with their populations of 12.8 and 12.7 million. Collectively Orange County, San Diego County and Riverside County account for a majority of the state with a population of 8.1 million. Redistricting would be critical to determine which party receives how many house seats. 18 House seats here is likely.
2010 Census 18+ (VAP)
White - 45.6%
Hispanic - 36.7%
Black - 4.7%
Asian - 10.6%
Other - 2.0%
2010 Census Total Population
White - 40.7%
Hispanic - 41.8%
Black - 4.7%
Asian - 9.9%
Other - 2.5%
North California
2010 Gubernatorial Election |
Jerry Brown (D) |
62.5% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
37.5% |
2008 Presidential Election |
Barack Obama (D) |
67.4% |
John McCain (R) |
32.6% |
The formation of South California leads to North California moving to the left dramatically. In 2008 only Hawaii and Vermont voted at a higher rate with 72% and 68% of the vote respectively for Barack Obama. Even though the GOP is weak in California the loss of 13 counties to South California would have devastating consequences for the GOP. The 25 point margin between Brown and Whitman is clear and needs no explanation. With a population of 24.2 million North California would be right below the 25.1 million in Texas making Texas the most populous state in the nation. 35 House seats here is likely.
2010 Census 18+ (VAP)
White - 43.7%
Hispanic - 31.3%
Black - 6.5%
Asian - 15.7%
Other - 2.4%
2010 Census Total Population
White - 39.8%
Hispanic - 35.4%
Black - 6.4%
Asian - 14.9%
Other - 3.0%
Miscellaneous Information
The U.S. Senate would increase from 100 to 102. North California would undoubtedly elect two Democrats. South California would be crucial to control of the Senate and depending on the election climate and candidate it could go either way.