Mitt Romney's patented charm isn't winning over
the GOP base (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
I've written about Mitt Romney's
polling ceiling—how he never seems to be able to build on his lead in public opinion surveys—and now that his FEC reports are in, it also appears he has a
fundraising ceiling:
49% of Obama’s $46.3 million came in donations under $200, and 26% were maximum $2,500 donations. By comparison, however, just 6% of Romney’s were under $200, while a whopping 70% were the maximum. In other words, Romney appears to have already maxed out his base of donors. (Where is the rest going to come from?) The other small-dollar percentages of campaign contributions under $200: Bachmann 67%, Cain 58%, Paul 54%, Gingrich 46%, Santorum 25%, Pawlenty 11%
So the vast majority of Mitt Romney's donations have come from people who can't give him another dime. It's a problem that reflects the core weakness of his campaign: outside of an elite group of donors, there's just no enthusiasm for his candidacy. And the only reason he's doing well in polls is that more people know his name than that of any other candidate. Over time, that advantage will wane.
Romney's solution to the problem is to tap outside groups to raise unlimited sums from the same donors who have already maxed out for his campaign. The main such group has already raised $12 million. But in a state-by-state campaign where you're trying to win support from the party faithful, having an independent PAC dump money into an air war isn't nearly as valuable as it would be in a general election.
The main thing Romney has going for him is that his Republican rivals haven't done any better, at least on paper, but the entrance of Michele Bachmann into the race will change that. She's only raised $3.6 million, $2 million of which came from her Congressional campaign fund, but that total is based on just a few days of fundraising during which she raised as much from small donors as Mitt Romney did during the entire quarter. In 2010, running for the House, she raised over $13 million, and as long as she continues to show well in the polls, her fundraising will soar. Meanwhile, Romney will continue searching for suckers to max out to his doomed campaign.
Oh, and by the way, neither one of them can hold a candle to President Obama, who reported raising $21 million from small donors in his latest FEC filing.