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After a five day battle it is beginning to look like the rebels have taken the oil town of Brega but it has been at a high cost, maybe 13 dead and more than 300 wounded.

As the battle for control of Libya rages on the battlefields another important battle has taken place in the realm of the media for the claim of legitimacy based on popular support among the Libyan people.

In this realm, the centerpiece of Qaddafi's claims to popular support has been a series of mass rallies in Tripoli on June 17th, July 1st and July 8th. In each of these occasions the pro-Qaddafi folks have stated that 1.7 million Libyans rallied for Qaddafi in Tripoli's Green Square. For example:

Pro-Qaddafi Rally Draws 1.7 million: 1/4 of the Population

Worker's World Party reported:
rallies in Libya against the bombing, which reportedly had 1.7 million people in attendance.

The Party for Socialism and Liberation wrote:
July 1 as many as a million rallied in Tripoli against NATO bombing. This is in a nation of only 6 million people.

Instead, on July 1st, over a million Libyans, around one third of the Libyan population, were in Green Square and the surrounding streets, to hear Muammar Qaddafi speak and to rally against NATO.

Chinese media put the number at 1.7 million and Intifada – Voice of Palestine website called it ‘the largest demonstration ever in world history’. The crowd chanted over and over again ‘We want Qaddafi’ while unveiling a green flag 6 kilometers long.

TRIPOLI. Friday of July 1, 2011 like many other Fridays has seen huge rallies in Tripoli’s Green Square.

It’s very hard to get an accurate number of the mass of people that have attended these rallies. Estimates have placed the size of the July 1st rally in Green Square at one million people. [China reports 1.7 million.]

Note that the [China reports] link links to the Perreira piece above not to any Chinese source. That source is not linked or defined by anybody and remains a mystery. That's how this information war is played by the pro-Qaddafi people. Assertions without sources.

Now others reporting on these pro-Qaddafi protests have estimated much lower numbers for these crowds, in the range of 10,000 to 30,000. It has also been said that the majority of those in attendance had some relation to Qaddafi security forces, approximately 10% of the Libya population has such an association. It has also been reported that many of the Qaddafi supporters were not from Tripoli at all but have been bused in from out-of-town, that they were paid to show up, or threatened if they failed to show up.

So there have been a lot of questions about the accuracy of these reports.

I got to wondering if it was even possible for 1.7 million people "the world's largest demonstration" to fit in Tripoli's Green Square and as it turns out it's not.

The world's biggest city square is Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, Iran and is almost 600,000 sq. meters in size. The second biggest is the more famous Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China and measures more than 440,000 square meters. Tripoli's Green Square isn't even on the list.

In fact I couldn't find a size for Tripoli's Green Square listed anywhere. I had to get a map and do the math myself. Thank Google:

Green Square is roughly 646 meters long by 238 meters wide. Taking into account all the adjacent streets and odd bits like the spear of land on the right and the rectangle on the bottom I come up with an estimated size for the Green Square area of just 205,065 sq. meters.

205 thousand square meters would appear to be an impossible fit for 1.7 million people  

So how many people can you fit into 205,000 sq. meters?

This authoritative study calls anything over 2 people per sq. meter "jammed," this report's densest category.

One study about a large rally in 2008 makes the following observation:

Crowd density estimates stem from the fact that people usually occupy around a quarter of a square meter in a very crowded space. This translates to around four (4) persons in a square meter. Lower crowd density means a larger space between each person. We should note that crowd density is usually not uniform, except in very crowded areas, and will taper off from the central hub of activity in the mobilization.

While How to Estimate Crowd Density says:

"Loose crowds" are those in which attendees stand an arm's length from one another, and give each person about 10 square feet of space. "Tight crowds" stand less than an arm's length from one another and provide about 4.5 square feet for each attendee, while a "mob crowd" is one that has no space between attendees and gives each only 2.5 square feet.

Read more: How to Estimate Crowd Density |

So using the most dense "mob crowd" of 2.5 sq. ft or .23 sq. m. per person it would appear that Tripoli's Green Square could support a rally of at most 891 thousands people. The estimates of as many as 1.7 million Qaddafi supporters in Green Square defy the possible.

Besides which, Green Square just hasn't been that crowded for these rallies. Look at the closeup below. This is Green Square on July 1, 2011. Notice the spacing between the people and few seem to be out in the street beyond the square. Notice also the camera crane that some on the DocuLink filmmaker list have speculated about. Makes it look rather more like a movie set than a rally doesn't it? Look at all the extras standing around waiting for the cue. And there's that French flag again! Since France has been first among the NATO countries in attacking Qaddafi, a French flag is the last thing you'd expect to see at a Qaddafi rally. What's it doing there?

Compare Tripoli's Green Square to the Washington Mall

In the United States, the national mall in Washington, DC is renown for it massive political rallies. In 1963 Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. spoke to a rally there that was generally considered to be about a quarter million people. This is what a quarter million people looks like. What you don't see is all the people on the sides under the trees and crowds all the way down to Washington Monument at the other end.

Here we superimposed Tripoli's Green Square over the Washington Mall, being careful to maintain the scale exactly. The red dot marks the location of the Washington Monument. If the Washington Mall gets crowded with 250,000 people how could Green Square hold 6 or 7 times as many people?

It simply didn't happen and all those that say that Qaddafi held a rally in Tripoli with over a million supporters in Green Square are selling an elaborate lie in the hopes of saving a tyrant and a mass murderer from his certain fate.

Here is a recap of my other DKos dairies on the Internet, North Africa and Anonymous:
Behind the Green Curtain: Libya Today
Gilbert Achcar on the Libyan situation and the Left
NATO slammed for Libya civilian deaths NOT!
Qaddafi's Million Man March
NATO's Game Plan in Libya
February 21st - Tripoli's Long Night
Did Qaddafi Bomb Peaceful Protesters?
Tripoli Burn Notice
Libyans, Palestinians & Israelis
'Brother' Qaddafi Indicted plus Libya & Syria: Dueling Rally Photofinishs
An Open Letter to ANSWER
ANSWER answers me
No Libyans allowed at ANSWER Libya Forum
Are they throwing babies out of incubators yet?
Continuing Discussion with a Gaddafi Supporter
Boston Globe oped supports Gaddafi with fraudulent journalism
Doha summit supports Libyan rebels
Current Events in Libya
Who's running Egypt?
Amonpour Plays Softball with Gaddafi
Californians Support North African Revolts
Google Supports Revolts | Anonymous does too!
Secret U.S. Intelligence Source on Middle East Revealed !
Arming Gaddfi
Are "mutinous officers" are being executed in Egypt now?
Algeria's 19 year long State of Emergency to end soon, President says
Senior Egyptian Army Officers Ordered Massacre!
Tales of Tyrants: Ben Ali, Mubarak & Suleiman
The Mubarak Screw Up & the Suleiman Danger
BREAKING: Mubarak is Defiant
The Google Search for Wael Ghonim
Tunisia's Revolution Continues
Google Goes Rebel, Supports Egyptian Protest
Tunisian Anonymous activists take on Egyptian cause
Protesters roar back with "Day of Departure" for Mubarak
Act Now to Stop Mubarak's Thugs From Killing More! w Petition
Act Now to Stop Mubarak's Thugs From Killing More!
They Should Have Helped That Street Vendor
Million Egyptian Protest Planned as Resistance Continues
Huffington Post Disses the Jasmine Revolution Redux
No Internet? No Problem! Anonymous Faxes Egypt
Egypt is on Fire!
North African Revolution Continues
Egypt Protests Continue, Tunisia Wants Ben Ali Back
BREAKING: Protesters Plan Massive "Day of Wrath" in Egypt Today
Tunisians Thank Anonymous as North Africa Explodes
Huffington Post Disses the Jasmine Revolution
Tunisia: A Single Tweet Can Start A Prairie Fire!
Anonymous plans Op Swift Assist in Tunisia
Arrested Pirate Party Member Becomes Tunisian Minister
Is Libya Next? Anonymous Debates New Operation
Tunis: This Photo was Taken 66 Minutes Ago
The WikiLeaks Revolution: Anonymous Strikes Tunisia
EMERGENCY: DKos Must Act Now to Protect Tunisian Bloggers!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    Remember history, Clay Claiborne, Director Vietnam: American Holocaust - narrated by Martin Sheen

    by Clay Claiborne on Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 01:06:23 PM PDT

    •  good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      fact checking is always nice.
      Whatever your stance on Libya is, this was an educative and illuminating read!

      the french flag thing is really absurd. Makes one distruct the image at all but whatever.

      The largest demonstrations I have been in, was in Bonn in 1983 against the NATO Pershing missile deployment, that was 300000, and in Brokdorf (a nuclear plant site) in 1986, reported to be 250000.

      Both very different experiences. Bonn was a city that was swamped in people, not just in the square, the entire town couldnt hold that multitude. Most just wanted some icecream becaues it was such a hot summer :) (Ice cream was sold out in Bonn). Brokdorf was one gigantic set of densely packed, and pretty grimly expectant and equipped marching columns in open landscape, trying to converge on the plant and break through the fence, which nearly succeeded in a running battle against helicopter assaulting police (who were hopelessly outnumbered but had all the reserves of technical equipment available and needed that badly). We have had bigger demonstrations than those, but I wasnt there. I wasnt there when the wall fell and Berlin celebrated on the Kudamm, that may well have been the most people massive event we ever had.

    •  what is your guess (0+ / 0-)

      as to the "actual" number.

      •  I think 10k - 30k may actually be about right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blue book, Byblis

        Remember history, Clay Claiborne, Director Vietnam: American Holocaust - narrated by Martin Sheen

        by Clay Claiborne on Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 02:45:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  well I think (0+ / 0-)

          much more like 100k-300k.

          •  Based on...? NT (0+ / 0-)

            "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

            by HeyMikey on Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 04:15:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  took it (0+ / 0-)

              out of my ass.

              Still, I have as much probability to be wrong with that as the diarist with hers.

              Point is, it's a pointless and futile exercise which serves no purpose at all.

              •  My estimate of 10,000 to 30,000 (0+ / 0-)

                is based on the observations of activists on the ground in Tripoli who I trust because I have been observing them for a while.

                The Free Generation Movement - حركة جيل الاحرار reported: [Saturday, July 2, 2011 at 12:03pm]

                The crowd was estimated to be around 10,000 strong.
                they also said
                Members of the Free Generation Movement were present at the event and can clarify that there was no video editing involved and that the crowd was indeed large.
                Cameras were placed at an angle that would present the crowd in a favourable light, but no comprehensive editing was involved.

                There are verified reports from Free Generation members of multiple buses bringing people in from outside of Tripoli. Whilst this is a verified report, other rumours regarding the source of the crowd cannot be verified by us.
                Whilst admittedly this was a large, pre-planned, and well orchestrated event, it still represents less than one percent of the Tripoli population, if indeed the participants were from Tripoli.

                FGM is the group behind Tripoli Burn Notice and many other actions.

                Libya Alhurra Updates cited an activist who was there and put the number at 30,000

                These are two reports that sound creditable and fair. Two other reports I have seen put the number at ~ 15k so I think my figure of 10k-30k involved a little more than my ass.

                Remember history, Clay Claiborne, Director Vietnam: American Holocaust - narrated by Martin Sheen

                by Clay Claiborne on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:02:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  So maybe under 50k? (0+ / 0-)

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