NBC/WSJ poll
A new
NBC/WSJ poll is out tonight:
Republicans who have refused to compromise with President Barack Obama to avoid a U.S. debt default are heeding the anti-tax wishes of their conservative base but are also risking isolation from many independent voters as public opinion shifts in favor of getting a deal done, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
More:
The poll of 1,000 adults, taken July 14-17, found a dramatic shift in attitudes toward the debt-ceiling debate as the public tunes in to the issue that is consuming Washington. A plurality of Americans—38%—said the debt ceiling should be raised, against 31% who said it shouldn't. A month ago 39% said the debt limit shouldn't be raised, while 28% said it should.
Of those polled, 58% said they supported Mr. Obama's approach, a $4 trillion deficit-reduction plan over 10 years that would cut federal spending, including on Medicare, and raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy. In comparison, 36% said they backed the leading proposal among congressional Republicans, which would reduce the federal deficit by $2.5 trillion, also over 10 years, by cutting federal spending but holding the line on taxes.
Repeat: 58% support Obama's approach. And as for Republicans? They really are screwed:
The poll shows why it isn't easy for Republicans to back away from their anti-tax position. While 62% of all Americans, and 61% of political independents, said the GOP should agree to raise taxes to get a deal on the debt ceiling, 46% of Republicans—a clear plurality—and 58% of tea-party supporters said the GOP should make no such deal. Congressional Republicans face the choice between an activist base that energized their landslide victory in last year's midterm elections and political independents, who tend to decide elections in presidential election years.
"Republicans are in a very, very ticklish and difficult position," said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who directs the Journal/NBC poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
More from
First Read:
Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, says the public’s message can be summed up in one phrase: “Compromise and get it done.”
“The public feels like this is a real problem that needs a real solution,” Hart explains. “And they want compromise by both parties.”
But there’s one hurdle to this compromise: A majority of Republicans – and nearly 70 percent of Tea Party supporters – want GOP leaders to hold their ground.
NBC/WSJ poll
Poor them. As for Democrats:
Democrats have their own quandary, but voters appear to be giving them more latitude. According to the new poll, 62% of Democrats and 73% of independents want Democratic leaders to make compromises to reach a budget deal.
And just for grins, a little horse race thrown in. Mitt Romney remains the front runner in this poll, and Obama beats both Romney and Bachmann head to head.
But that's just dessert. The main message, taken with the previous ABC/WaPo poll, is that Obama's positions are playing well with the country, but there's little appetite for entitlement cuts. We'll need to see what happens when the details of the actual deal, whatever it is, roll out.