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Senate:

FL-Sen: The Miami Herald has a long post-mortem on the short campaign of Mike Haridopolos for Senate, but if you've been following along with us all cycle, almost none of this will be new to you. There's the ridiculous book and pay-for-play advance he earned; the ethics violations and admonishment before the state Senate; the debacle in trying to deal with Ryan's Curse; and more recent issues, like the departure of top campaign staff and the sharp drop-off in fundraising. But plenty of campaigns have floundered much worse before collapsing; plenty have come back from similar nadirs. So we're still left wondering why Haridopolos pulled the plug so quickly. Was there something else at work here?

IN-Sen: Here's the Dick Lugar ad we mentioned the other day, and it ain't a pretty one. First off, he definitely looks old. Second off, he's reinforcing that with video of him walking beside Ronald Reagan. And thirdly, doesn't it feel like this ad is missing a musical soundtrack? Without anything playing in the background, it sounds like some weird PSA. Anyhow, you be the judge.

MA-Sen: Scott Brown and the NRSC are touting a late-June poll (conducted on their mutual behalves by Public Opinion Strategies) showing Brown leading Alan Khazei (54-24), Elizabeth Warren (53-28), and Setti Warren (57-21). I'm not sure those numbers are all that awesome for Brown, considering it's an internal poll and his opponents have minimal name recognition.

ME-Sen: With birtherism at a low if not permanent ebb, Scott D'Amboise, Olympia Snowe's teabagging primary challenger, tries to garner some attention by resurrecting one of its cousins. Of Barack Obama, says D'Amboise, “I don’t know if he is or isn’t, but I don’t believe he’s a Christian.”

MI-Sen: Both Aaron Blake and Dave Catanese say their sources confirm it: ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra has indeed made a complete about-face and will challenge Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow, as first reported by the Michigan Information & Research Service (aka MIRS, a subscription-only publication). Hoekstra, who badly lost a gubernatorial primary last year, turned down the race some time ago, but was recently thought to be reconsidering. Given his weaknesses on the trail (including less-than-stellar fundraising) and his arch-conservative record, I'm not so sure this is a great get for the GOP.

NM-Sen: Republican pollster Magellan is out with a surveys of both Senate primaries in New Mexico. On the GOP side, they find Heather Wilson at 56, John Sanchez at 21, Greg Sowards at 5, and Bill English at 2. In a matchup featuring just Wilson and Sanchez, she leads 60-26. While the gap is wide, Wilson is actually down three points and Sanchez up four since Magellan first tested the race back in April.

As far as the Dem field goes, Magellan is still at it with this "Democrat primary" shit. What's next from the Rush Limbaugh lexicon? "Do you define yourself as a lib?" Gah, anyway, they also have a Dem half of that primary poll, finding Martin Heinrich leading Hector Balderas 52-19, with Some Dude Andres Valdez at 4. One other thing Magellan is doing wrong is asking secondary matchups that leave out the most minor candidates. In this case, Heinrich leads 54-21. That's completely uninteresting. In a race like this with two serious declared candidates, it doesn't matter, but PPP will typically ask permutations that leave off big names, in order to see where their support winds up. No one cares where Valdez's 4% goes.

PA-Sen: Tom has a crazy kitchen sink for the Republican Senate primary, one which has Rick Santorum (who ain't runnin') at 47 and everyone else (including Reps. Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach) in single digits.

TX-Sen: I can understand why Hamlet took his time making up his mind: After all, he was contemplating the murder of his own uncle. But all David Dewhurst has to do is decide whether to run for Senate, and really, why should that be so hard to figure out? After endless delays without apparent reason, he'll supposedly announce "by midweek."

And while Dewhurst has been dithering on the parapets, his chief rival for the GOP nomination, Ted Cruz, continues to cement his position as the movement conservative standard-bearer. Cruz just picked up the backing of another key figure in the right-wing pantheon, SC Sen. Jim DeMint.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: GOP gubernatorial nominee David Williams is out with his first ad of the general election, with a buy of $103K, according to the Hotline's Sean Sullivan. The spot, which you can see here, is a soft bio-ish piece in which Williams praises his father and says that some days he "has not" met his goal of living up to his dad's standards.

House:

CT-05: A nice score for state House Speaker Chris Donovan, who is seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Chris Murphy: The Connecticut Laborers’ District Council, a 7,500-strong union representing construction and building trade workers, just gave him their endorsement.

FL-16 (?): Here's a name we just ran across while compiling the second quarter fundraising reports: GOP state Rep. Paige Kreegel, who filed — quite a long time ago! — to run in Florida's 16th CD... kinda-sorta. Kreegel is term-limited, and when he initially sent his paperwork (PDF) into the FEC back in January, he didn't list any district number at all. That makes sense, since the 16th is home to Republican Rep. Tom Rooney, and I can't imagine Kreegel intends to primary him, especially since he raised only $62K last quarter. So this is probably just a placeholder committee, in case redistricting comes up boxcars for him.

FL-22: What a freak.

FL-25: Hah! Great catch by Marc Caputo at the Miami Herald. An invitation to a mega-high-dollar NRCC event features the names of new fewer than 18 Florida GOP congressmembers... but the problem is that there are, in point of fact, 19 Republicans in the state's delegation. The odd man out? David Rivera, whom the GOP has been itching to get rid of almost before he was first elected last year. Few sitting reps are ever this far on the outs with their own party, which makes this a pretty interesting case. But in any event, if Rivera doesn't get the shaft in redistricting, then you gotta believe he'll be hung out to dry in a primary. P.S. Late yesterday, Republicans re-printed the invite, claiming it was a "typo." Uh-huh.

IA-04: Christie Vilsack, as expected, formally launched her campaign against GOP Rep. Steve King yesterday. You can watch her welcome video at the link.

IN-05: Are you serious? Do we need to get John Nash out to Indiana to explain basic game theory to Republicans? Actually, best that we don't: If the GOP wants to ensure Dan Burton's continued survival, that's just fine with me. In their continued efforts to do so, Burton just acquired his third serious primary challenger, former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks. Former Rep. David McIntosh and 2008 challenger John McGoff (who nearly beat Burton that year) are already in the race, giving Burton a very good chance of skating with a bare plurality once more.

ME-01, ME-02: Jonathan Riskind at the Portland Press Herald runs through a litany of possible challengers to the state's two Democratic representatives: Chellie Pingree in the 1st and Mike Michaud in the 2nd. The most interesting name that we haven't previously mentioned is GOP state Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney, who says he is "seriously discussing" a run against Pingree.

MO-01, MO-02: The best laid plans of mice and men, yes? The essentially district-less Russ Carnahan says he's "100% focused on running for Congress," but of course he only has bad choices: a primary challenge against fellow Dem Lacy Clay in the 1st, or a run in the open but very red 2nd. I'm skeptical he'll follow through, though, because he weirdly added that he'll only announce where he's running when "we know what the final lines look like, which could be several months." What is he talking about? Redistricting was finished over two months ago, and there's no DoJ preclearance to worry about. I'm also not aware of any plausible lawsuits challenging the map. So what's going on here?

NE-02: Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing (whom we mentioned last month as a possible candidate) formally announced a challenge to GOP Rep. Lee Terry. Ewing is a former deputy police chief who, back in 2006, became the first African American ever elected to county-wide office. (He was re-elected unopposed last year.)

NV-0?: Dem ex-Rep. Dina Titus, who lost by less than 1% last year, just resigned her post on the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, saying it's "becoming more imminent that I'll become a candidate" for Congress. Thanks to redistricting and the fluid open seat situation, it's not quite clear where Titus will run.

NY-09: Surprise! the top issue on voters' minds is not, despite GOP fantasies, Israel, but rather the same stuff everyone else cares about everywhere else: Medicare, Social Security, the economy. That's from a NY1 report catching up with Dem David Weprin at a campaign stop which took place, as Colin Campbell points out... at the Jewish Center of Kew Gardens Hills. BTW, props to Weprin for having the guts to go in the exact opposite direction on Social Security, saying we should increase benefits.

NY-10: If Ed Towns is planning on staying in Congress, he's definitely doing it wrong. The oft-primaried congressman is very likely to face a strong challenge from Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, a fellow Democrat, but he has just $53K cash-on-hand after spending $240K so far this cycle.

NY-19: Here's another former Dem Rep. who lost last year but isn't getting back in the game: John Hall, who says he won't seek a rematch against freshman GOPer Nan Hayworth but will help his fellow Democrats to defeat her. I'm not terribly surprised, since Hall sounded extremely weary when he discussed the possibility of running again several months ago.

OK-02: Though he initially said he would serve out his full term, Shira Toeplitz's sources say that retiring Dem Rep. Dan Boren might depart early, in order to take a university job (probably the presidency of Northeastern State University in Tahlequah, OK). Such a move would of course force a special election, but that might actually favor Democrats, who would be able to run without anyone else on the ballot in this Obama-unfriendly district. Shire also mentions a few new possible names: On the Dem side, in addition to ex-state Sen. Ken Corn (whom we've noted before), Muskogee County Commissioner Gene Wallace says he is "very" interested. State Rep. George Faught is already running for the GOP, but he could be joined by attorney Dustin Rowe and plumbing company owner Mark Wayne Mullin.

PA-06: Terrific news: Physician Manan Trivedi just announced yesterday that he'll seek a rematch against GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach. Trivedi ran a solid campaign (and raised a good sum of money) last year — plus he defeated a self-funding primary opponent — but the red tide was just too much for him, and he wound up losing by 14 in the general. Gerlach is undoubtedly hoping to get shored up in redistricting, but there are probably limits on how much redder this CD can get, given how GOP-heavy PA's delegation became in 2010. This ought to be a good race.

PA-15: Lehigh County Democratic Chairman Rick Daugherty says he'll challenge Rep. Charlie Dent, regardless of whether Bethlehem Mayor (and 2010 nominee) John Callahan runs again. Daugherty says he'll make a formal announcement in the fall, and based on an earlier interview, it sounds like Callahan plans to make up his mind around September.

SD-AL: David Montgomery of the Rapid City Journal has an interview with Minnehaha Commissioner Jeff Barth, whom we noted became the first Democrat to announce a challenge to freshman Rep. Kristi Noem just the other day. It's worth checking out if you'd like to learn more about him. One note: Barth had previously said he'd step aside if ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin decided to seek a rematch, but has since dialed that back a bit. (It's not looking like Herseth Sandlin will run again anyway.)

VA-02: Hedge fund manager Paul Hirschbiel says he plans to challenge GOP first-termer Scott Rigell as a Democrat. This is Hirschbiel's first run for office, though he had some involvement in Mark Warner's gubernatorial administration. He's donated a bunch to both Dems and Republicans over the years, and presumably he's rich as hell and can self-fund.

Other Races:

WI Recall: A group called the American Federation for Children has a new 60-second spot out touting GOP Sen. Alberta Darling's record on education. The AFC's chair is none other than Betsy DeVos, wife of super-rich right-wing mega activist Dick DeVos, whose foundation is very hostile to public schooling. Anyhow, I'm not impressed with the ad's production values, and it's also way too long. Who wouldn't get bored by this one?

Grab Bag:

New Hampshire: The usual miscellany from PPP on the Granite State: generic legislative ballot, gay marriage, approval for Senators... plus 2016 (!) Dem primary numbers.

Voter Suppression: After a string of Democratic vetoes of voter ID bills (in MO, NC & NH), we have yet another piece of possible good news on the voter suppression front, this time out of Maine. An effort is under way to collect signatures to put a measure on the ballot that, if passed, would repeal a new law that eliminates election day registration of new voters. Organizers are hoping to get the measure on the ballot this fall, but if they cannot, it could go before voters next year.

Redistricting Roundup:

MD Redistricting: A piece by Josh Kurtz at a publication called Center Maryland suggests that Democrats are turning their sights on GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, rather than freshman Andy Harris, as they draw new maps. Supposedly, this reflects a difference of opinion between Steny Hoyer (who wants to give Frank Kratovil a chance to make a comeback) and Donna Edwards (who apparently would prefer to create a bluer district). Of course, as readers of this site are well aware, we can very likely have both... but it just seems that Maryland Democratic legislators have not spent enough time in the DKE diaries.

MN Redistricting: Tony Petrangelo has a helpful rundown of the court schedule for the legal battle over redistricting in Minnesota (necessary because the GOP-held legislature could not reach agreement on new maps with Dem Gov. Mark Dayton). He speculates that a final plan could be reached by February (based on how things went in court a decade ago).

NC Redistricting: Republicans released a new congressional map, and it's quite a bit different from their first draft, at least in how it goes about trying to screw Democrats. Click the link for our full analysis (plus a copy of the map) at Daily Kos Elections.

TX Redistricting: Gov. Rick Perry signed his state's new congressional map into law yesterday... but I wouldn't count on it sticking. There are at least a dozen redistricting lawsuits underway in Texas right now, and the map as passed has some serious VRA-related defects.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Gotta say I disagree with your (5+ / 0-)

    MA-Sen comment.  I think over 50% for a Republican incumbant in Mass. is pretty damn good (from Scott Brown's point of view at least).

    One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

    by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 05:56:47 AM PDT

    •  It is within shouting distance of PPP (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      ref http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/... (47-32) . As discouraging as it is, new candidates who go on the attack in favorable states have been known to dissipate such leads.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:31:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obviously Brown won't keep the Democrats under 30 (5+ / 0-)

      But being over 50% so early is obviously a sign of his personal strength. I think Brown has a good shot at winning by 10, but not 30.

      •  Exactly. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        greatdarkspot, MichaelNY

        I completely agree.

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:41:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  We have a better shot in NV I think. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        greatdarkspot, AUBoy2007

        I think Brown wins around 53-47, hope I'm wrong though.

        My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

        by drhoosierdem on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:41:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The key here is (5+ / 0-)

          That Brown has these numbers in a state that's going to be tremendously unfavorable to Republicans in 2012. That's not the end-all be-all obviously (see Maine, 2008), but it does mean that these numbers aren't as impressive in Massachusetts as they would be in say, Texas or Indiana (where we'd probably be saying "nothing to see here" if these were the numbers).

          •  For all the talk of him being (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            some juggernaut, he's won one statewide election. Just one. He's got a steep hill to climb, even if he is in a strong position, and the fact that he

            At this point, the idea is to simply win. A big victory would be nice, of course, but it's hardly necessary. As I keep saying, if our candidate can get somewhere between 80 and 85 percent of Democrats and 40 to 45 percent of Independents with a 40/20/40 breakdown, that candidate will probably win.

            I realize it'll be a long time before we have a candidate, but if the Democrats in the state as well as the DSCC are doing nothing else, I hope they are mining the state for every last possible voter. It's been a good, long while since the Democrats had a competitive senate election or presidential election, and if they didn't do something like this for the governor's race, they are probably leaving a lot of votes on the table. Considering that it's still a pretty big state, that alone could prove invaluable.

    •  You have to consider this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Any credible Democrat is going to start our with at least a solid 44% of the vote locked up. And, it's not like he's actually had to play defense much, once he actually has to defend some of his votes and his potential support for McConnell as majority leader, his number can very well decrease. This is one state where making a connection with Republican leadership would very much benefit the Democratic candidate.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:13:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NV-0X: I got an email from the Titus campaign... (7+ / 0-)

    Last night. Yes, you heard me right. It's official.

    http://dinatitus.com/

    And btw, everyone around these parts uses NV-0X, since we don't know yet what the final product will look like.

    •  here a Titus there a Titus, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

      The hesitation to specify what district she'll run in is a normal exercise of caution until the lines are drawn; but it is worth noting that Emily's List announced at the very beginning of the cycle that they were hoping to fund a woman candidate to run against Joe Heck, and they've backed Dina Titus in previous contests.  It's a safe bet that she touched base with them as she finalized her decision.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:23:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-02: Hirschbiel's profile (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, drobertson, MichaelNY

    from the Diary link

    "Scott is very much to the right. I am much more of a moderate. I'm a social progressive," Hirschbiel said, noting that he opposes the Republican budget plan, offered by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan and supported by Rigell, that calls for sweeping changes in entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.

    Hirschbiel, 58, is making his first bid for elected office. He is a longtime contributor to political campaigns and assisted U.S. Sen. Mark Warner's administration during Warner's term as governor.

    The lion's share of Hirschbiel's political contributions have been to Democrats, including Warner, Nye and former Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, but he also has donated to several Republicans, according to records compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project and the Federal Election Commission. Among the GOP candidates he supported are former President George W. Bush in 1999, presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2007 and Gov. Bob McDonnell.

    Donated to Warner, Kaine, Romney, and McDonnell. Is Pat Robertson's Regent U still in the district?

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:35:52 AM PDT

  •  To the Game Thoery comment (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt

    Interesting factoid. I was taught economics by a man who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on Game Theory, Leonid Hurwitz. Unfortunately professor Hurwitz is no longer with us, but he was known to have the best candy bowl in his office if you needed to talk to him during office hours.

    •  That's so cool. (0+ / 0-)

      Was it an upper level class or a lower level class?

      The only real brush with fame I had in college was that one of my professors won a Pulitzer for writing a book about Japan and its government and problems during World War II. He was a really, really, really smart guy, but very far to the left and a little brash. I think part of the problem was that he was so damn smart and the subject matter a little dense that he made it hard to talk without sounding like a fool. Supposedly, he was pals with Chomsky.

      That, and the fact that I am pretty sure I stood next to John Lott on the line for coffee in one of the academic buildings.

      •  A few friends (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kretzy, The Caped Composer

        Did an independent study or class with Linc Chafee while he was at Brown.  I tagged along to a meeting once to thank him for voting against the flag-burning amendment.  He produced a roll call vote from somewhere and started highlighting cross-party votes, bemoaning the Dems who went along with the amendment.

        Also, I got into an argument with Ralph Nader.  He accused me of black-and-white thinking (Ralph Nader!).

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:14:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You met Linc Chafee? (0+ / 0-)

          How is he, as a person?

          I've wanted to meet him!

        •  My mom's brother (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt

          is kind of an odd guy. He's a CPA that was in the military but who, for much of his life, travelled to Bob Dylan concerts selling crap out of a truck. He was never really involved in politics, neither through voting nor volunteering, but he told me the last time I saw him that he really, really liked Chafee and volunteered and voted for him when he ran for governor. He was standing on line at either the swearing in or the victory party and he shook Chafee's hand, telling him all of this and also that he never waited in line so long for anything, including Bob Dylan. His response? "Well, I can't sing for you, but I'll try to do anything else I can to make you happy."

          Also, one of my mom's best friends from childhood married Bob Weygand, the former Lt. Governor of Rhode Island and a congressman that ran against Chafee in 2000 but lost. Small word, eh? Well, that's what happens you are from Rhode Island. Perhaps everyone really does know everyone else.

      •  It was a 5000 level class (0+ / 0-)

        But it was a business management econometrics class that non-econometrics students could take for litany of minors (including mine, Industrial Engineering). This was before he had won the Nobel Prize (summer 06). And incidentally, the same time I became actively involved in campaign politics.

    •  Nice story (3+ / 0-)

      Of course, when I've had office hours, I didn't necessarily want students to come all the time.  Maybe that's why he won a Nobel Prize and I won some lousy evaluations.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:56:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'll be interested to see (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    what happens in Iowa with Vilsack.  Despite his craziness, Steve King has had pretty easy victories in his third of Iowa.  But his new district is slightly less crazy and Christie might have a shot.

  •  Can we get a Democratic challenger in PA-5... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, James Allen

    ...who isn't the assistant manager of a Five Guys?

    I'll Rochambeau you for it.

    by Rich in PA on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:58:30 AM PDT

    •  that candidate (Mike Pipe) (4+ / 0-)

      is running for Centre County Commissioner, this cycle, probably a more achievable goal and a better stepping stone to a political future.  

      I like him. One of his announced goals is to improve the county old folks home, something of a snake pit. An unusual interest, for a young person, arguing a social conscience.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:30:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He seems like a good guy... (0+ / 0-)

        ...but he needs to start with something achievable as you've noted, and then he can look to move up.  Except for 2008 we've been pretty defeatist about this seat in my opinion.

        I'll Rochambeau you for it.

        by Rich in PA on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:56:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  PA-05 (0+ / 0-)

          The 2008 cycle was the window of opportunity, with the low-impact incumbent retiring and a fragmented GOP primary to replace him. Unfortunately the poorly qualified, lacklustre-seeming winner of the GOP primary & the general has done a good job of solidifying his political position with the home folks. He is not perceived as an obnoxious ideologue, or as especially ineffective. I'm not sure what would have to change before a Democrat of any stripe would have a shot at this seat.

          Senator Casey will have some coat-tails in this district, but I just don't see anyone on the horizon who could make effective use of them. State Senator Scott Conklin roused some rancor by running for statewide office in 2010 and has fences to mend. He may try for this seat some time, but I'll be surprised if he can be recruited for the 2012 cycle. I feel no enthusiasm for him, myself, because he's far enough to the right on social issues that I don't see much daylight between him and generic R. We already have generic R.

          A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

          by Christopher Walker on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 01:02:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I love five guys! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA, itskevin

      My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

      by drhoosierdem on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:36:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-6 - Open Seat (Flake-R) lesbian challenger? (5+ / 0-)

    Sen. Kristen Sinema (D-Phoenix) is openly mulling a challenge for the AZ-6 open House seat vacated by Senate prospect Jeff Flake.  She is Lesbian and points to Arizona's libertarian heritage creating a more open political environment statewide in Arizona.

    Glad to see a State Senator mulling a House bid in Arizona.  We need to start rebuilding the bench of Democrats capable of challenging for federal and statewide offices.

    Link to story: http://www.usatoday.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:00:43 AM PDT

    •  Depends on what happens in redistricting. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      As some of us have been talking about for quite some time, Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) will be closely monitored by all the usual legal eagles to see if it actually delivers competitive districts and "districts that look more like Arizona". It may make sense for the IRC to draw some sort of Tempe/Midtown Phoenix based district that would be very diverse and very competitive.

      •  AZ9? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        walja, MichaelNY

        Last time the commission drew the new districts in the middle of the Phoenix area instead of on the edges. The new ones were actually AZ4 (Pastor) and AZ5 (Schweikert). If they do the same thing this time, the new AZ9 could be a Tempe-central Phx district that Sinema could conceivably win. I can't imagine that she would make a run at Flake's district, which will likely be reduced to most of Mesa and Gilbert. Even a Harry Mitchell type Dem would have no chance there.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:22:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good Point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I was not thinking in terms of new Congressional district lines when I placed her in Flake's district.  

          There is no reason CD - 9 might not be on Sinema's mind rather than CD-4 where I placed her based on current lines.

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:41:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oddly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drobertson, MichaelNY

      Of Arizona's 9 Democratic state senators, I think 4 are openly LGBT (I had thought Sinema identified as bisexual).  Aside from Sinema, there's one who represents a Native American district, one who represents Tucson, and...I forget the fourth's district.

      The Arizona Democratic Legislative delegation is considerably pared down to safe seats--I think only six represent white-majority (or was it plurality) districts, three of these representing the tucson district.  (Each district in AZ has two reps and one senator).  I recall only two represent districts that aren't all blue.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:02:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sinema says (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

      She is bisexual, not a lesbian. I believe she was at Netroots Nation this year, though I did not get to meet her.

      I'm not sure where you see the Flake stuff. We mentioned her previously, and she said she was waiting on redistricting. She's currently in Ed Pastor's district but says she won't primary him.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:42:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is exciting! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I hope she does have a seat to run in next year.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 12:22:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would be awesome if true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I got to see Kristen Sinema speak at the last Young Democrats of America convention.  She is intelligent, snarky, hilarious, and not afraid to tell people what she believes.

      I don't know what the districts would look like, or how she would play in some of the more deeply red parts of AZ.  But she has proven electoral success, and we need more gutsy Democrats in Congress from everywhere.

  •  PA-06 - Good news about Manan Trivedi (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, James Allen, MichaelNY

    I'd love to see Gerlach go.  More needs to be made of Gerlach's Club for Growth roots, especially now that people understand that increasing taxes on the rich is a good thing.

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

    by accumbens on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:03:14 AM PDT

  •  NM-Sen (3+ / 0-)

    Heinrich has been a great 2-term Rep and I'm nervous to see him abandon that safety for the Sentate race.  I know, I know, nothing ventured nothing gained, and we didn't have anyone else handy who was strong enough.  

    But I don't like his chances against Heather Wilson, frankly.  She's got that traditional Republican chameleon thing going on, where she can sound like a mostly-sane but fiscally conservative person OR she can go all culture-war bizarro about Jackson's nipple.  

    On one hand, I'm relieved that NM Republicans are not rabid enough to choose John Sanchez.  I mean after all, I gotta live and work with these folks.   But on the other hand, I'd rather they'd pick him because him Heinrich COULD easily beat.

    This'll be a squeker and like I said, not in good way.  Guess I gotta haul out the checkbook again.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:03:49 AM PDT

  •  WI - Recall - Dems congratulate Simac 4 victory (8+ / 0-)

    Mike Tate and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin congratulated Kim Simac on her primary victory last night in the Republican Primary.

    "Republicans have nominated Kim Simac - an extremist who is severely out of step with Northwoods voters. Simac thinks the Tea Party should write the lesson plans in our kids' schools; believes big corporations are 'the cornerstone of America'; and says we should 'wean' people off of government programs, like seniors who rely on Medicare. And despite a comfortable lifestyle and multiple business ventures, Simac has managed to pay nothing in state taxes over several years.

    "The people of the 12th senate district deserve a leader like Jim Holperin, who stands up for Northwoods values and for working and middle class families. While Simac likes to portray herself as an "everywoman" who will represent real people, her true background reveals a radical agenda and skillful ability to avoid paying state taxes."

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:14:36 AM PDT

  •  Dan Burton (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Sorry folks. You're missing the punch line. Rumor here is that Burton is going to announce his retirement and endorse Mike Delph, a State Senator with VERRRRRY close ties to Burton.

    Done with politics for the night? Have a nice glass of wine with Palate Press: The online wine magazine.

    by dhonig on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:35:12 AM PDT

  •  OH-Gov. (6+ / 0-)

    Kasich with a 50-35 disapproval rate. Ryan 2014!

     http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
    Wow, great, I guess that gives me more incentive to stay. Thanks.  

    My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

    by drhoosierdem on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:47:23 AM PDT

  •  this is my problem with the live digest (4+ / 0-)

    Pretty much all of these were reposted from it word for word.

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02; Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 07:54:45 AM PDT

    •  it has good and bad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

      The good is that we get the information sooner. The bad is the format and the reports. I am okay with it either way

    •  I think the idea is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that if you followed the Live Digest the previous day, you don't really need to pay too much attention to the Morning Digest, as it's basically the same thing.

      The trouble, for me, is knowing whether or not I read all of yesterday's Live Digest. Scanning the Morning Digest to find out is really too much work, so I'll probably just miss some items if I wasn't 100% on top of it the previous day.

    •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't understand why this is a "problem." This is a feature, not a bug. If you read the entire live digest, there's no reason to read the re-post. I just do this because we send out an email version of the digest every day, and the live version isn't suitable for that. Plus, we also re-post the morning digest to the DK FP, and the live digest wouldn't be very good for that, either.

      So I just re-do the live digest at the end of the day. And like I say, skip the re-post. Barring something weird happening, it will never contain new information if you've already read the live version.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:46:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Redistricting (0+ / 0-)

    There's only one way that Democrats can win in these highly gerrymandered districts: change the PVI scores.

    Don't accept the PVI as the unalterable reality but a number that must be beat.

    Is there the fight to do that?

    50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

    by TarheelDem on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:13:10 AM PDT

    •  Easier said than done. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
      •  In the 1960s (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Republicans didn't seem to think so. And with the extremism in the GOP today, one would think that it would be easy to have traditional Republicans break with the party.  Not to mention influence some independents.

        I guess I'm tired of the "geography is destiny" excuse for Democratic Party and progressive failure.

        Hell, there are Congressional Districts that progressives won't move into.  Just have a progressive see a job listing in Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kentucky.  Atlanta, maybe.  New Orleans, Nashville, Memphis, or Knoxville, maybe.   Other than those, they prefer the comfort of their progressive enclaves.  And then we wonder why we don't win all those small states with populations under 700,000 where votes count more in the Senate and the electoral college.

        I didn't say it was easy.  I asked if there was the fight to do that.

        50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

        by TarheelDem on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 12:52:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-19 John Hall won't run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

    Damn! I will have to change my signature line. With Nan Hayworth as our rep, I've REALLY been missing John Hall.

    Vote John Hall for Congress, NY-19 in 2012

    by NYWheeler on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:18:25 AM PDT

    •  I feel like she should be vulnerable (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drobertson, MichaelNY

      I don't know too much about the district or how it might change, but as is it's pretty moderate (what, R+1?) and Hayworth has made herself pretty visible on this debt ceiling crap.  I am usually skeptical of the electoral impact of such things, but it is very high-profile and the Congressional Republicans' actions are very unpopular.

      Others have made the point, but while "rust belt" Midwestern seats get a lot of attention, ritzy suburban seats like Hayworth's are important too.  In some parts of the country they are the backbone of Republican power, but in the Northeast they're swingy.  I wonder if there's a Jim Himes type in the district.  Of course, it might get more republican in redistricting (or not, who the hell knows) and there might be a more conventionally-qualified candidate too.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 09:21:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Recall: That ad looks like it's from 1991 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    It looks so aged for a new ad. It's too long to have an effect, no one wants to pay attention to an ad that long.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:18:41 AM PDT

  •  FL-Sen: Mack's Back?? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, tietack, MichaelNY

    I had assumed that when Connie Mack IV bailed on a senate race earlier this year that he was totally out. I think he'd have been the frontrunner had he jumped in and would have had no trouble raising $. So when Hair Boy bailed a few days ago, I gave no thought to the possibility that Mack might jump in. LeMeow and Hasner are credible challengers to Nelson - this isn't like MI where Turtle Fence guy changed his mind because there was no top notch people running for the GOP.
    But now I think that Mack may be looking at getting back in. Why else would he do this?
    http://mack.house.gov/...
    This is out of character for him and seems to be aimed at staking out some ground on the right - and pick up some of that support before it goes to Hasner.
    I'm sort of conflicted about this. I was open in my support for Mack right from the start and only switched to Hasner when he dropped. If he gets back in, I'll switch back to him - I do like him better and think he's got a better shot at winning - but did he really think he couldn't beat Hair Boy? That's the only explanation for him hopping out and then back in (if he does). Hasner and LeMeow are not going to drop just because he gets in - it'll still be a tough fight.
    Hard to say who he hurts more if he goes get in - my bet is LeMeow because the Mack brand will be able to attract some of those moderates and establishment people who would otherwise go to George. Hasner will probably try to move even further to the right as a response.
    I wish Mack would have just jumped in right away if he wanted the seat. Better late than never, I suppose.

  •  Hoekstra makes it official (4+ / 0-)
    Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, announced this morning he's filed to try to unseat Democrat Debbie Stabenow, Michigan's junior senator.

    "Over the last couple of years, the spending in Washington has spun out of control," Hoekstra said.

    "Michigan needs a U.S. senator who will cut spending without raising taxes and help create jobs. Replacing Debbie Stabenow means we'll be one step closer to the economic recovery our state's working families deserve," he added.

    http://detnews.com/...

  •  Allen West sounds like he's butthurt (0+ / 0-)

    I think he mad.

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